- Messages
- 7,033
- Reactions
- Nation of residence
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- Nation of origin
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- Youths prefer new party by students
- Jamaat also gaining popularity
This is Bangladesh’s first political opinion survey after the fall of Sheikh Hasina and was conducted by Innovision Consulting (bangladeshspeaks.com), with mixed findings.
Innovision surveyed 8,696 people between August 29 and September 8 in two parts: a field survey of 5,115 people that consisted mostly of older respondents from low-income communities; and an online survey of 3,581 people that was mostly of younger Gen Z and Millennial respondents.
According to the survey, 45% of the aggregate 8,696 survey respondents were not planning to vote for either of Bangladesh’s mainstream parties, and many of the remainder were undecided.
The online survey found that 35% of respondents would vote for a student led party, 25% for Jamaat-e-Islami, 10% for the Awami League, 10% for BNP, 3% for independent candidates, 1% for the Islamic Movement of Bangladesh, 11% remained undecided, 1% expressed interest in other parties, and 3% said they would not vote at all.
Jamaat-e-Islami led among students, the unemployed, and private sector employees, according to the online survey report.
The field survey showed that 34% of respondents were undecided in their choice of vote, 21% preferred to vote for the BNP, 14% for Jamaat-e-Islami, 11% intended to vote for a hypothetical newly formed student-led party, 5% for the Awami League, 3% for independent candidates, and 3% for the Islamic Movement of Bangladesh.
The BNP notably led among farmers, labourers, and businesspeople, but its popularity was nearly equal to Jamaat-e-Islami among students and private-sector employees, according to the field survey report.
Geographically, undecided voters were the largest voting bloc in every division except Sylhet, where it was supporters of the BNP. Supporters of BNP were the second largest group in every state except Mymensingh, where it was a hypothetical student party, Rangpur, where it was Jamaat-e-Islami, and Sylhet, where it was undecided voters.
In Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Mymensingh, and Rangpur, supporters of a hypothetical new student-led party were the largest voting bloc, followed in second by Jamaat-e-Islami. In Rajshahi and Sylhet, supporters of Jamaat-e-Islami were the largest voting bloc, followed in second by supporters of a hypothetical new student-led party.
The survey gave new insight into the possible results of future elections, but its reliability in measuring the political opinions of the country is far from certain.
Professor Rushad Faridi of Dhaka University, who was present at Innovision’s survey announcement workshop, voiced his concern that he was unsure whether strict guidelines had been followed while conducting the survey without being able to see the data and details.
“It was a much-needed initiative at this time in Bangladesh,” he told Dhaka Tribune, “But opinion polling is very technical and it must follow a strict scientific process.”
