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Dr. Can Kasapoglu | Director, Security and Defense Research Program, EDAM
Between 2022 and 2027, Turkey is set to receive six Reis-class submarines (based on Germany’s advanced Type-214-class) with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems that combine long endurance and silent navigation. The new platforms will boost the nation’s military capacity, most notably as to land-attack capabilities in littoral settings along with other signature advantages in submarine warfare.
In the long-run, however, Turkey’s emerging undersea fleet can be assigned to a more strategic role. Turkish defense planners aim to build a long-range & high-precision conventional deep strike capability through sea-launched cruise missiles (with submarine-launched variants) based on the Gezgin (the Voyager) project, mimicking those of the US and Russia with the Tomahawk and Kalibr missiles respectively. If successful, the integration of submarine launched cruise missiles and submarines with AIP systems would be tantamount to a breakthrough for the Turkish military’s strategic weapons arsenal.
The Reis-class will not only benefit the Turkish Navy but also Turkey’s defense technological and industrial base. Leading companies are playing critical roles in the project, generating cumulative know-how which can be transferred to the Milli Denizaltı (the national submarine) plans in the coming years.
Geopolitics of Submarine Warfare
Geopolitics of Submarine Warfare Submarines are geopolitical chess-pieces in a broad-array of struggles ranging from great power competition to regional military balance calculus of flashpoints situated in different corners of the world. Throughout military history, these boats have proven to be game-changers at strategic, operational, and tactical levels. World War 2 offers invaluable lessons in this respect. The US-led allied submarine campaign in the Pacific, for example, devastated Imperial Japan’s merchant fleet, constituting one of the leading causes behind the collapse of the Japanese war-economy. Likewise, the German U-boat activity during both of the world wars posed great challenges
Submarines are valuable assets due to their ability to combine advanced features in concepts of operations (CONOPS) and weaponry. Underwater boats can run silent, dive deep, and hide from the adversary’s eyes. Besides, they are platforms that carry game-changer weapons, such as nuclear arms and conventional high-precision missiles, as well as complex sensors and electronics. Last but not least, following the nuclear technologies introduced to the battle-space, submarines play critical roles in great power rivalry in the world’s oceans
Having left its port and dived, a submarine can only be detected by the application of a complex search effort in a relatively large area. The very element of uncertainty introduces a significant multiplier-effect when it comes to the deterrence factor that submarines bring to the seas. An adversary would theoretically know the range and endurance of the submarine, yet, within these parameters, the platform can be anywhere at any time3 . The longer a boat can navigate without surfacing – and the more silent it can proceed –, the more it would pose deterrence through ambiguity. Moreover, with adequate numbers, a fleet of submarines can sustain a long, even continuous presence in an area of strategic interest with one platform relieving another systematically.
Military-futuristic studies suggest more ambitious roles along with challenges to submarines. Some experts anticipate that manned submarines will need to shift from their frontline tactical roles – resembling combat aircraft – to more coordination hub roles like aircraft carriers. In the meantime, anti-submarine warfare networks will have an increasing reliance on more complex sources other than radiated noise, thus, making acoustic silencing not adequate to maintain an undersea boat’s stealth. In return, manned submarines “will have incentives to reduce their exposure to risks in hostile littorals while maximizing their use of a growing array of deployable acoustic and non-acoustic decoys and jammers to prevent detection”4 . Also, large unmanned underwater vehicles are likely to take part in tactical operations, such as intelligence gathering, land-attack, and anti-ship tasks, in the future, especially in hostile littoral settings.
AIP System Equipped Submarines
When it comes to Turkey’s Reis-class case, analytical focus needs to take into consideration two specific aspects, airindependent propulsion systems and submarine-launched cruise missiles with conventional roles.
The AIP systems allow conventional submarines to remain underwater longer by enabling them to recharge their batteries without surfacing for air. Present technologies highlight three main types of AIP systems – Stirling Cycle, Closed Cycle Steam Turbines [MESMA in the French designation], and Fuel Cell – of which the latter, necessitating fewer moving parts and using hydrogen and oxygen to generate power, looms large as ‘the state-of-the-art’ wayforward for the submarines of the class5 . The Turkish Navy’s forthcoming Reis-class, based on the German Type 214, will use the fuel cell technology
AIP system-equipped submarines (SSP in military abbreviation) come with several advantages. First, when fed with good military intelligence as to the adversary’s buildup, they are robust ambush-layers thanks to their quietness and endurance. Besides, the underlying design philosophy behind these advanced boats makes them ideal assets for short and medium-range surveillance tasks too7 . Available writings suggest that in naval warfare settings favoring maneuverable platforms, such as littoral waters, SSPs can have a clear upper-hand
AIP submarines can be militarily effective tools, especially in short and medium-range missions by extending the “tactical ‘trade-space” for diesel-electric submarines. Their ability to sustain slow, long, silent patrol is noteworthy in this respect. Finally, future improvements in the AIP technologies can lead to a double, or even triple boost in a typical fuel cell module’s power output, in which case, would bring about better tradeoffs between underwater speed and endurance
Submarine’s Land-Attack Roles in Context
Apart from the AIP submarines, one has to develop a thorough understanding of these platforms’ conventional high-precision land-attack roles to better grasp what the Reis class would mean to Turkey.
Today, the world’s advanced submarine fleets adopt critical land-attack roles which manifest a new geopolitical reality in their military use. Especially in littoral settings with no assured access ashore, navies’ precision land-attack capability from the sea offers interesting options to political decision-makers and military planners10. The US Navy’s punitive strikes with Tomahawk missiles on the Syrian regime following Assad’s forces’ chemical warfare activities on civilians, as well as the Russian Navy’s Kalibr salvos into the Syrian battleground, remain telling in this respect. Likewise, the conversion of some of the US Navy’s Ohio-class nuclear-tipped ballistic missile submarines into nuclear-powered conventional attack platforms – now equipped with Tomahawk Block IV missiles – is a good example. Following the START II Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, limiting the number of strategic missile submarines to 14 from 2002, instead of decommissioning four excess boats, the US Navy has converted them for conventional long-range precision strike roles along with SEAL special operation troops delivery
Several technologies enabled the conventional land-attack roles of submarines. Miniaturized Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) packagesequipped standoff missiles with affordable precision kits are noteworthy in this respect. Besides, cumulative knowledge of satellites and data-links enabled complex precision strikes in network-centric warfare settings12. Against the backdrop of the abovementioned developments, submarines have a pivotal role in the contemporary littoral warfare environment thanks to their mobility, lethality, endurance, and stealth capabilities
Submarine-launched cruise missiles, even with conventional warheads, are strategic weapons. Open-source intelligence suggests that, for example, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) prefers a 3:1 load ratio between cruise missiles and torpedoes in their submarines
Above all, cruise missiles enjoy low-visibility due to their flight paths, making them hard-to-detect threats. When launched from silent, also hard-to-detect platforms, submarines, their deadly combination produces a true surprise strike. This feature would be multiplied with the AIP systems that gift boats with quietness and endurance at the same time. The Russian Navy’s experience with Kalibr cruise missiles – known as the ‘Kalibrization’15 of the Russian Navy – remains valuable in showcasing the advantages of such a capacity.
Back in 2015, a Geperd-class frigate and three Buyen-Mclass corvettes of Russia’s Caspian Navy launched a volley of Kalibrs to their targets in Syria with an impressive 1,800km flight16. The incident marked the combat debut of the missile. The same year, in December 2015, this time an Improved Kiloclass submarine, Rostov-on-Don, launched Kalibr missiles into the Syrian battleground from the Mediterranean17. At present, Kalibr missiles are deployed on the Improved Kilo, Akula, Lada, and Yasen-class submarines of the Russian Navy
Between 2022 and 2027, Turkey is set to receive six Reis-class submarines (based on Germany’s advanced Type-214-class) with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems that combine long endurance and silent navigation. The new platforms will boost the nation’s military capacity, most notably as to land-attack capabilities in littoral settings along with other signature advantages in submarine warfare.
In the long-run, however, Turkey’s emerging undersea fleet can be assigned to a more strategic role. Turkish defense planners aim to build a long-range & high-precision conventional deep strike capability through sea-launched cruise missiles (with submarine-launched variants) based on the Gezgin (the Voyager) project, mimicking those of the US and Russia with the Tomahawk and Kalibr missiles respectively. If successful, the integration of submarine launched cruise missiles and submarines with AIP systems would be tantamount to a breakthrough for the Turkish military’s strategic weapons arsenal.
The Reis-class will not only benefit the Turkish Navy but also Turkey’s defense technological and industrial base. Leading companies are playing critical roles in the project, generating cumulative know-how which can be transferred to the Milli Denizaltı (the national submarine) plans in the coming years.
Geopolitics of Submarine Warfare
Geopolitics of Submarine Warfare Submarines are geopolitical chess-pieces in a broad-array of struggles ranging from great power competition to regional military balance calculus of flashpoints situated in different corners of the world. Throughout military history, these boats have proven to be game-changers at strategic, operational, and tactical levels. World War 2 offers invaluable lessons in this respect. The US-led allied submarine campaign in the Pacific, for example, devastated Imperial Japan’s merchant fleet, constituting one of the leading causes behind the collapse of the Japanese war-economy. Likewise, the German U-boat activity during both of the world wars posed great challenges
Submarines are valuable assets due to their ability to combine advanced features in concepts of operations (CONOPS) and weaponry. Underwater boats can run silent, dive deep, and hide from the adversary’s eyes. Besides, they are platforms that carry game-changer weapons, such as nuclear arms and conventional high-precision missiles, as well as complex sensors and electronics. Last but not least, following the nuclear technologies introduced to the battle-space, submarines play critical roles in great power rivalry in the world’s oceans
Having left its port and dived, a submarine can only be detected by the application of a complex search effort in a relatively large area. The very element of uncertainty introduces a significant multiplier-effect when it comes to the deterrence factor that submarines bring to the seas. An adversary would theoretically know the range and endurance of the submarine, yet, within these parameters, the platform can be anywhere at any time3 . The longer a boat can navigate without surfacing – and the more silent it can proceed –, the more it would pose deterrence through ambiguity. Moreover, with adequate numbers, a fleet of submarines can sustain a long, even continuous presence in an area of strategic interest with one platform relieving another systematically.
Military-futuristic studies suggest more ambitious roles along with challenges to submarines. Some experts anticipate that manned submarines will need to shift from their frontline tactical roles – resembling combat aircraft – to more coordination hub roles like aircraft carriers. In the meantime, anti-submarine warfare networks will have an increasing reliance on more complex sources other than radiated noise, thus, making acoustic silencing not adequate to maintain an undersea boat’s stealth. In return, manned submarines “will have incentives to reduce their exposure to risks in hostile littorals while maximizing their use of a growing array of deployable acoustic and non-acoustic decoys and jammers to prevent detection”4 . Also, large unmanned underwater vehicles are likely to take part in tactical operations, such as intelligence gathering, land-attack, and anti-ship tasks, in the future, especially in hostile littoral settings.
AIP System Equipped Submarines
When it comes to Turkey’s Reis-class case, analytical focus needs to take into consideration two specific aspects, airindependent propulsion systems and submarine-launched cruise missiles with conventional roles.
The AIP systems allow conventional submarines to remain underwater longer by enabling them to recharge their batteries without surfacing for air. Present technologies highlight three main types of AIP systems – Stirling Cycle, Closed Cycle Steam Turbines [MESMA in the French designation], and Fuel Cell – of which the latter, necessitating fewer moving parts and using hydrogen and oxygen to generate power, looms large as ‘the state-of-the-art’ wayforward for the submarines of the class5 . The Turkish Navy’s forthcoming Reis-class, based on the German Type 214, will use the fuel cell technology
AIP system-equipped submarines (SSP in military abbreviation) come with several advantages. First, when fed with good military intelligence as to the adversary’s buildup, they are robust ambush-layers thanks to their quietness and endurance. Besides, the underlying design philosophy behind these advanced boats makes them ideal assets for short and medium-range surveillance tasks too7 . Available writings suggest that in naval warfare settings favoring maneuverable platforms, such as littoral waters, SSPs can have a clear upper-hand
AIP submarines can be militarily effective tools, especially in short and medium-range missions by extending the “tactical ‘trade-space” for diesel-electric submarines. Their ability to sustain slow, long, silent patrol is noteworthy in this respect. Finally, future improvements in the AIP technologies can lead to a double, or even triple boost in a typical fuel cell module’s power output, in which case, would bring about better tradeoffs between underwater speed and endurance
Submarine’s Land-Attack Roles in Context
Apart from the AIP submarines, one has to develop a thorough understanding of these platforms’ conventional high-precision land-attack roles to better grasp what the Reis class would mean to Turkey.
Today, the world’s advanced submarine fleets adopt critical land-attack roles which manifest a new geopolitical reality in their military use. Especially in littoral settings with no assured access ashore, navies’ precision land-attack capability from the sea offers interesting options to political decision-makers and military planners10. The US Navy’s punitive strikes with Tomahawk missiles on the Syrian regime following Assad’s forces’ chemical warfare activities on civilians, as well as the Russian Navy’s Kalibr salvos into the Syrian battleground, remain telling in this respect. Likewise, the conversion of some of the US Navy’s Ohio-class nuclear-tipped ballistic missile submarines into nuclear-powered conventional attack platforms – now equipped with Tomahawk Block IV missiles – is a good example. Following the START II Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, limiting the number of strategic missile submarines to 14 from 2002, instead of decommissioning four excess boats, the US Navy has converted them for conventional long-range precision strike roles along with SEAL special operation troops delivery
Several technologies enabled the conventional land-attack roles of submarines. Miniaturized Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS) packagesequipped standoff missiles with affordable precision kits are noteworthy in this respect. Besides, cumulative knowledge of satellites and data-links enabled complex precision strikes in network-centric warfare settings12. Against the backdrop of the abovementioned developments, submarines have a pivotal role in the contemporary littoral warfare environment thanks to their mobility, lethality, endurance, and stealth capabilities
Submarine-launched cruise missiles, even with conventional warheads, are strategic weapons. Open-source intelligence suggests that, for example, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) prefers a 3:1 load ratio between cruise missiles and torpedoes in their submarines
Above all, cruise missiles enjoy low-visibility due to their flight paths, making them hard-to-detect threats. When launched from silent, also hard-to-detect platforms, submarines, their deadly combination produces a true surprise strike. This feature would be multiplied with the AIP systems that gift boats with quietness and endurance at the same time. The Russian Navy’s experience with Kalibr cruise missiles – known as the ‘Kalibrization’15 of the Russian Navy – remains valuable in showcasing the advantages of such a capacity.
Back in 2015, a Geperd-class frigate and three Buyen-Mclass corvettes of Russia’s Caspian Navy launched a volley of Kalibrs to their targets in Syria with an impressive 1,800km flight16. The incident marked the combat debut of the missile. The same year, in December 2015, this time an Improved Kiloclass submarine, Rostov-on-Don, launched Kalibr missiles into the Syrian battleground from the Mediterranean17. At present, Kalibr missiles are deployed on the Improved Kilo, Akula, Lada, and Yasen-class submarines of the Russian Navy
