Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640406940995010576

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640414950819790848

 

[contricusc]

But the end goal is the same, the preservation of friendly government. They fail. Miserably

The big difference is that the Ukrainian government is a natural one supported by the people of Ukraine, while the Afghan and Vietnamese governments were artificial ones with very little local support. There’s a huge difference between the two.

The heavy task of changing the natural government of a country is with the Russians now. They failed in Afghanistan when faced with Western support for the armed resistance, and they will fail even more in Ukraine. Russia is weaker than the Soviet Union, and Ukraine is much stronger than the Mujahedeen of the Soviet-Afghan war.

Well that depends on what is the next course of action from both sides, the war is still young, very young, both sides has the means to prolong war for many years to come if need be.

Long term game of endurance in peace not in war where you have to face the ugliness that comes with it.

The Europeans are ready to play the long term game, no matter if it’s during peace or war. This conflict is in Europe, so we just can’t ignore it and forget that it exists. There are millions of Ukrainians in European countries that will remind us on a daily basis that they have a country that needs to be defended. And there are also Poles, Romanians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Finns who will never forget about this war until Russia is defeated. For us in Eastern Europe, this is not a proxy war that we can forget about. This is an existential war that must be won at all costs.

And it will be won.

Ukraine just in case you forgot anything is already out of Russian influence since the Maidan, now the task isn't to actually "pull" Ukraine, rather its the task of preserving it under orbit. This is historically the hard part.

It’s actually the easy part when the population supports your side. It is hard only when the population is against you.

Not gonna say Russia will 100% win, but its wise not to say Russia will not get it goal 100% too.

My point is, the advantage is clearly there, how are they going to exploit it ? That's Russia's problem.

Russia will lose this war. It is up to them to decide how heavily they want to lose it. The more they prolong it, the heavier their defeat will be. When they started the invasion last year, people were content with just helping Ukraine defend its 2021 borders. Now people want Ukraine to restore its legally recognized pre 2014 borders, and that incoudes Crimea.

If the Russians smarten up, they would try to broker a deal now when they give back all Ukrainian lands in exchange for peace and lifting of most sanctions. But since they are not that smart, they will go on with this war until their country will collapse. If the war drags on for a few more years, Europeans will want to see Russia desintegrate as a punishment for this war. Restoring Ukraine’s border will not be enough.

There are other issues that need resolving, such as Transnistria, Kaliningrad (maybe independence would be a good solution for Kaliningrad), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and why not also Chechnya, Dagestan, the Kuril Islands and more. There are lots of potential independent republics in Russia. They just need the external help to rise up against Moscow, and a weakened Russia.

Now its up to Putin if he can win the battlefield at U.S home front the way Vo Nguyen Giap manages to do so.

Even if Putin wins the hearts of Trumpists, and they manage to win the US elections, he will never win the hearts of Eastern Europeans, the British and the Nordic countries. Half of Europe supports Ukraine no matter the cost, and there is nothing Putin can do to change that.

Europe will not abandon Ukraine, and there will be enough pressure from the European allies so that the US will keep the help flowing as well.

 

[Kathirz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640413875425411073

Mirages are closer.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640421493359165514

 

[Ecderha]

lot of putin soldiers were killed

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640096646573727746

 

[Gary]

The big difference is that the Ukrainian government is a natural one supported by the people of Ukraine, while the Afghan and Vietnamese governments were artificial ones with very little local support. There’s a huge difference between the two.

The heavy task of changing the natural government of a country is with the Russians now. They failed in Afghanistan when faced with Western support for the armed resistance, and they will fail even more in Ukraine. Russia is weaker than the Soviet Union, and Ukraine is much stronger than the Mujahedeen of the Soviet-Afghan war.



The Europeans are ready to play the long term game, no matter if it’s during peace or war. This conflict is in Europe, so we just can’t ignore it and forget that it exists. There are millions of Ukrainians in European countries that will remind us on a daily basis that they have a country that needs to be defended. And there are also Poles, Romanians, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Finns who will never forget about this war until Russia is defeated. For us in Eastern Europe, this is not a proxy war that we can forget about. This is an existential war that must be won at all costs.

And it will be won.



It’s actually the easy part when the population supports your side. It is hard only when the population is against you.



Russia will lose this war. It is up to them to decide how heavily they want to lose it. The more they prolong it, the heavier their defeat will be. When they started the invasion last year, people were content with just helping Ukraine defend its 2021 borders. Now people want Ukraine to restore its legally recognized pre 2014 borders, and that incoudes Crimea.

If the Russians smarten up, they would try to broker a deal now when they give back all Ukrainian lands in exchange for peace and lifting of most sanctions. But since they are not that smart, they will go on with this war until their country will collapse. If the war drags on for a few more years, Europeans will want to see Russia desintegrate as a punishment for this war. Restoring Ukraine’s border will not be enough.

There are other issues that need resolving, such as Transnistria, Kaliningrad (maybe independence would be a good solution for Kaliningrad), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and why not also Chechnya, Dagestan, the Kuril Islands and more. There are lots of potential independent republics in Russia. They just need the external help to rise up against Moscow, and a weakened Russia.



Even if Putin wins the hearts of Trumpists, and they manage to win the US elections, he will never win the hearts of Eastern Europeans, the British and the Nordic countries. Half of Europe supports Ukraine no matter the cost, and there is nothing Putin can do to change that.

Europe will not abandon Ukraine, and there will be enough pressure from the European allies so that the US will keep the help flowing as well.

I could be wrong....or even right.

Right now it's too early to tell. It's like trying to paint without light, no one really knows where this war really is going.

 

[JOYDEEPGHOSH]

Why is Russia Pissed with Ukraine – It's Billions in Lost Royalty, and Security Risks​

Why is Russia Pissed with Ukraine – It's Billions in Lost Royalty, and Security Risks

History It’s been over 380 days since Russia attacked Ukraine. Many people are still confused as to why did Russia attack Ukraine in 2022 af...

rbt-defense.blogspot.com

 

[GoatsMilk]

Why is Russia Pissed with Ukraine – It's Billions in Lost Royalty, and Security Risks​

Why is Russia Pissed with Ukraine – It's Billions in Lost Royalty, and Security Risks

History It’s been over 380 days since Russia attacked Ukraine. Many people are still confused as to why did Russia attack Ukraine in 2022 af...

rbt-defense.blogspot.com

Russia is no victim.

the excuses to justify their brutal invasion of a nation they brutally supressed for hundreds of years gets more and more ridiculous. It began with NATO expansion, swung to denazfying and now im reading about lost royalties on weapon sales. The reality is that for Russia is about empire building, nothing more and nothing less. One of the most morally bankrupt nations on earth.

 

[Relic]

By now we all know what Western MBTs and IFVs have been slated for Ukraine and will / have arrive in the coming months. As a quick recap, below will be the newly supplied equipment largely used Ukraine's next offensive...

Main Battle Tanks / Tank Destroyers
31 Abrams M1A1 (USA)
28 Challenger 2 (Britain)
30 PT-91 Twardy (Poland)
30 T-72 (Poland)
18 Leopard 2A6 (Germany)
14 Leopard 2A4 (Poland)
10 Leopard 2A4/5 (Sweden)
10 Leopard 2A4 (Spain)
8 Leopard 2A4 (Canada)
8 Leopard 2A4 (Norway)
3 Leopard 2A4 mine clearing (Finland)
3 Leopard 2A6
28 M-55S (Slovenia)
40 AMX-10RC (France)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
109 Bradley M2A2 ODS (USA)
50 CV90 (Sweden)
40 Marder (Germany)
25 AMX-10P (France)

The above is a good start, but this offensive will see loses incurred and the necessity for continual training on replacement armor remains. Below is what I HOPE to see announced for Ukraine over the coming months, in preparation to replace losses suffered on the battlefield.

Main Battle Tanks / Tank Destroyers
31 Additional M1A1 Abrams (USA)
31 Additional PT-91 Twardy (Poland)
31 Additional T-72 (Czech Republic, funded by USA and Netherlands)
40 T-80UD (Pakistan, purchased by the West)
20 Additional Leopard 2A4 (German Industry)
10 Additional Leopard 2A4 (Spain)
8 Additional Leopard 2A4 (Canada)
10 Additional Leopard 2A4 (Finland)
100 Leopard 1A5 (Germany)
100 Leopard 1A5 (Germny, Beligium, Netherlands)
20 AMX-10RC (France)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
100 Bradley M2A2 ODS (USA)
100 Warrior (Britain)
40 Marder (German Industry
25 AMX-10P (France)

In order to keep the offensive going strong and properly re-supply the assault unit as they take inevitable losses, thousands more Ukrainian troops need to keep training across Europe and performing combined arms training led by the Americans in Germany. As each of these assault forces finishes training and is equipped from the inventory above, they have to be rotated into combat, allowing the initial assault forces to re-group and re-fit, before rotating back in.

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640744321103060998

 

[Vol305Sh]

Hello everyone on the forum and in the topic
Here, as I understand it, they mainly throw off various news.
Then I can throw this for discussion:

Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

Nearly 20,000 deaths confirmed by April 7

en.zona.media

18,023 Russian fatalities corroborated by publicly available data as of March 24
+ 1,259 last two weeks
1,617total casualties among new recruits

Mediazona, working with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, continues to collect data about the casualties sustained by the Russian military in Ukraine. These numbers do not represent the actual death toll since we can only review publicly available reports including social media posts by relatives, reports in local media, and statements by the local authorities.

The real death toll is much higher. Besides, the number of soldiers missing in action or captured is not known.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian T-54 tanks were spotted on the echelons. The Russian army began to use the T-54A and T-54B tanks, two echelons with these tanks were noticed by eyewitnesses. How these tanks will be used is not clear, perhaps they will be used as long-term firing points or as mobile artillery, which was previously done with T-62 tanks. According to the latest data, tanks can be transported for disassembly for spare parts for other tanks. The T-54A tank was put into service in 1955 and was produced until 1957. The tank is equipped with a 100 mm gun with a firing range of up to 14 kilometers and has an ammunition load of 34 rounds, the crew of the tank is 4 people.

The Russian An-26 aircraft got away from 2 MANPADS missiles of Ukraine. The episode of this battle in Ukraine, which was a year ago and appeared only now, surprised many. During the battles for Zmeiny Island, when the Ukrainian army stormed it, a Russian An-26 aircraft appeared and dropped a load of aid to Russian soldiers, while flying at an ultra-low altitude. Surprisingly, Ukrainian units attacked the plane twice with MANPADS, but both missiles missed. The fact is that the An-26 aircraft does not have any protection against missiles, it’s luck, or a small thermal footprint of the engines, is not clear.

 

[Vol305Sh]

it seems I missed this post but kinzhal according to sources is being produced more than 50 times the amount that I posted here awhile back. Just like people here believed that T-14s, tornado MLRS systems and Pantsir-sm systems would remain in limited numbers somehow their sources later state they have over 100 units of each and are starting production and they are starting to re-open many ammunition supply production facilities to deal with their shell hunger problem despite already having the existing artillery firepower advantage in bombing the crap out of the Ukrainians hence which is why we see Wagner whom still have a considerably smaller force pushing the AFU back.

Production in Russia is not really a fact that it has grown a lot. Russia buys electronics and other components for weapons, for example, in China. But no one really knows the volume
Russia could make 200 tanks a year from scratch. Now she could, in theory, use all tank factories and make about 650 units a year, but here a limited number of components become a block. We don't know how much. Perhaps so much so that production is still 200-250 pieces. I will probably assume that the real production will be about 350 units per year starting next year, when Russia finds a certain amount of imported tank components.
Ukraine has nothing to worry about here, although this year the number of permanently lost tanks of Russia is the largest in this war. Further - meat waves and less equipment with armored vehicles. Further, Russia will avoid sending tank brigades in favor of motorized rifle brigades. However, if 2500 tanks were lost, then the Russians were able to take our 100 units into the trophy and repair another 150, as well as smelt 250 new ones. Real irretrievable losses of tanks 2000 units

 

[UkroTurk]

Putin prepares Russia for ‘forever war’ with west as Ukraine invasion stalls

The Russian president has managed to rally people around the flag with talk of a fight for national survival

www.theguardian.com

Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, warned Russian cultural and political elites that the war would drag on for a long time.

The Guardian writes about this in an article about how Putin is preparing Russia for an “endless war” with the West amid a protracted invasion of Ukraine.

“I guess you are waiting for me to say something. Everything will become much harder. This is a very, very long time,” Peskov quoted The Guardian as saying.

According to the interlocutors of the publication, Peskov issued such a warning at a dinner that took place in the apartment of a high-ranking Russian official in late December 2022.

It is noted that Peskov's toast spoiled the mood of the guests, who in private conversations opposed the war, and in their toasts expressed hope for peace and a return to normal life.

 

[UkroTurk]

Russia removes 1945 tanks from storage: expert makes a statement

Old Soviet tanks IS-3, 1945 / photo t.me/zloyodessit



According to the observer, many are rushing things, because Russia has not yet exhausted its supply of other junk.


Photos with old Soviet IS-3 tanks from 1945 appeared on the network, along with suggestions that the Russian Federation began to re-mothball them for sending to the war in Ukraine.

As military-political observer Alexander Kovalenko noted, many are rushing things, because Russia has not yet exhausted its stock of T-62 and T-54/55 tanks: “For the sake of the fire potential of 122 mm? -mm cannon D-25T, with an effective range of hitting a target up to 1 km. Try to find now in Russian warehouses and storage centers shots for it in a usable condition. "

The expert advised not to draw such radical conclusions about the removal of the IS-3 tanks from mothballing.



"But if this is confirmed ... It will be difficult for me to find words to comment on this, but I will still try to analyze the situation without sarcasm," he added.

 

[UkroTurk]

Austin assessed the chances of a counteroffensive of Ukraine

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin


The head of the Pentagon stressed that Russia's resources are running out, and it is increasingly feeling the shortage of artillery ammunition.

Ukraine, against the background of a significant depletion of the Russian army and the supply of Western weapons, has "very good chances" to launch a successful counter-offensive this spring.
This was stated by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during a hearing in the US Senate Armed Services Committee, writes Ukrainska Pravda.









"The Ukrainians inflicted significant losses on the Russians, and they depleted their stocks of armored vehicles in a way that no one could ever imagine. And now we see how Russia will re-mothball the T-54 and T-55 tanks due to the level of losses that the Ukrainians inflicted," - said the head of the Pentagon.

Austin stressed that Russia's resources are running out, and RF is increasingly feeling the shortage of artillery ammunition, so RF is forced to turn to Iran and North Korea for help.

“Therefore I think we will see an intensification of hostilities in the spring as conditions for maneuvering improve, and also based on what we have already done and continue to do. I think that Ukraine will have a very good chance of success,” Austin added. .

Earlier, Austin noted: the United States expects Ukraine to launch an offensive in the spring.

 

[Vol305Sh]

Urban fighting in Bakhmut
Just over a year ago, Russian lovers here were waiting for her, they also said that Russia "put on children's gloves", "do not fighting as the US" and other funny statements. Now the inhabitants were forced to leave or perish

 

[UkroTurk]

 

[Dmr]

Russia removes 1945 tanks from storage: expert makes a statement

View attachment 55532


Old Soviet tanks IS-3, 1945 / photo t.me/zloyodessit



According to the observer, many are rushing things, because Russia has not yet exhausted its supply of other junk.


Photos with old Soviet IS-3 tanks from 1945 appeared on the network, along with suggestions that the Russian Federation began to re-mothball them for sending to the war in Ukraine.

As military-political observer Alexander Kovalenko noted, many are rushing things, because Russia has not yet exhausted its stock of T-62 and T-54/55 tanks: “For the sake of the fire potential of 122 mm? -mm cannon D-25T, with an effective range of hitting a target up to 1 km. Try to find now in Russian warehouses and storage centers shots for it in a usable condition. "

The expert advised not to draw such radical conclusions about the removal of the IS-3 tanks from mothballing.



"But if this is confirmed ... It will be difficult for me to find words to comment on this, but I will still try to analyze the situation without sarcasm," he added.

When they started taking T 62 out of storage I jokingly said that soon they will also get T 34's involved in combat.The way things are going,that doesn't sound as a joke anymore.

 

[Gary]

Bad investment I must say. If this is the way they're doing it, might as well stop production of "advanced" model helo and start producing basic Mi-8.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640720028621238273

Russia's past 20years of military modernization really doesn't give any significant new capabilities than what the Soviets already had in the 90s.