In both Viet Nam and Middle East, the US had boots on the ground. This means dead American soldiers, coffins flying back home. This is something the population doesn’t like and can turn against pretty quick. In Ukraine, there are no American troops doing the fighting, so the main problem from a US point of view is resolved.
It doesn't have to be a 1:1 comparison. Yes, there's no American dead yet in Ukraine but that's not even remotely the point. If this war grind on, the Americans (either they got directly affected or not) will start questioning their entire involvement in the war.
You see, in 2001 in Afghanistan, no one in the U.S will ever imagine that in 20 years time they have to flee the country humiliated...at the time the general wisdom is, we got it under control, we just put a loyalist government in Afghanistan and they're going to fight there instead of us, what could possibly go wrong ? The same naiveness shown today for what appears to be a young war.
It depends on the Russian willingness to extend the war and for how long, wait long enough and the advantage will be Russia's. In 10,20, 30 years time the world is going to change a lot. No one will guarantee that every U.S administration will be the likes of Biden and no one could absolutely guarantee that domestic U.S opinion will not change the political outlook of the states. Wait long enough and the people in the States consciously or provoked will start asking "why are we spending so much in Ukraine ?, instead of healthcare (maybe)?" and then this will roll and roll until it turns into a very big political snowball that the U.S government could no longer dodge.
The thing is for Russia, whatever the scenario is, the West is never in the game of Endurance, they got tired, bored, lose interests and so on.
In both cases, the local allies of the US were not very interested in fighting. The American troops had to do the fighting themselves, so it is logical for the public back home to get tired of this. In Ukraine, the situation is totally different. The Ukrainians are motivated to fight, because they defend their land from an invsion.
U.S losses is only piecemeal in number, but again persist long enough (add that to domestic problems) and people will start looking for answer. People will start dumb question like, why are we spending so much abroad, and not build schools instead blah blah blah...and in return the Politicians (who needed their vote) will naturally start to cease support gradually.
Time and time again, Its not the battlefield victory that U.S/West antagonist should be looking at, its the defeat at home that they should go for. Its not going to be a 1:1 comparison yes, but the underlying problem is the same. No one understands this better than Vo Nguyen Giap of Viet Nam or Mullah Omar of Afghan Taliban. Putin himself a student of history, should go check this out.
It is the war in the middle east started by an unprovoked attack on U.S soil that gave rise to populist like Trump in the first place, what are the chance that people got tired their tax money is used for a war that has nothing to do with an actual attack on U.S soil ? Maybe another fertile ground for another Trump style populist ?
The problem of Russia in this case is that it’s fighting against a more motivated enemy. In this case, Ukrainians are the Taliban, those willing to fight for as long as it takes to retake their land. Russians are fighting a meaningless invasion war, while Ukrainians defend their country. The motivation is totally different for the two sides.
Motivated yes, but the numbers will not be their advantage...in Afghanistan and Viet Nam the two underdogs understand their weakness and goes underground, Ukraine on the other hand is going head on knee to knee which will gradually scrape their overall power.
Motivation on Ukraine's side would only be effective with continuing support by their Western allies, lose that support and there's no point for Igor to be motivated because there's nothing left to fight Russia with.
You can boast motivation aloud, but in the face of bad prospects, people will start looking elsewhere, in Syria the refugee seeker started gradually from a very popular and energetic uprising.
In the end, the fighting men in Ukraine does have the prospect of a long war with Russia or leave the country and find safe place for him and his family to stay. And the family part is why many fighting men in Syria left their country. In the Battlefield they're just as motivated, but enter the family safety equation and the whole motivation started to collapse..and I bet people in Ukraine are no different.
The war is like a year long and Bali is getting flooded by men of fighting age from Ukraine (and Russia)
so much so we are planning to stop issuing Visa
With its balmy beaches, laid back lifestyles and holiday vibe, the tropical paradise of Bali has much to offer any world weary traveler -- let alone those fleeing a war zone.
edition.cnn.com
While the Russian propaganda tries to portray this war as being between Russia and the West, the reality is that this is a war between Russia and Ukraine. The West is only helping Ukraine with money, weapons, ammunition and intelligence.
Yes, that's why they only likely have to wait long enough until that very support scraped thin enough over time. They have the industry, and more importantly population to sustain this. 142 million vs 40 million its very clear who will run out of men early. Especially when the casualty ratio on both side are humongous.
Just in case anyone forget, Ukraine is 2nd rate in importance to other more pressing issues (like Taiwan).
But yes I acknowledge in the end it is yet to be seen how the Russian siloviki enforce its will on keeping society bend under its whim to continuously go to war...but if they do (and they can) and they wait patiently long enough its a natural advantage for them.
For the US, the cost of this war is tiny. If the Russian strategy is to outlast the US support for Ukraine, they are making just another big mistake. For the US economy, the cost of this war is like a drop in a bucket.
The war in Afghanistan and Viet Nam is also tiny both from monetary and manpower and loss perspective, but their gradual tiredness is always there and it repeats again and again, either in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq and later on probably Ukraine.
