Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ryder]

If nukes are really used I wonder what will be left to even fight not only Ukraine will be obliterated but the Russians will also get obliterated.

Nuclear war happens there wont be any winners.

 

[Gary]

If nukes are really used I wonder what will be left to even fight not only Ukraine will be obliterated but the Russians will also get obliterated.

Nuclear war happens there wont be any winners.

Depends... between two nuclear powers ? Everybody dies

Between a nuclear power and a non nuclear one ? Everybody dies in the non nuclear country.

 

[Era_shield]

If nukes are really used I wonder what will be left to even fight not only Ukraine will be obliterated but the Russians will also get obliterated.

Nuclear war happens there wont be any winners.

Most of Ukraine would become uninhabitable for the next century, Russia would become economically and politically isolated, but the Russian govt would regain some respect domestically and internationally (it would be perceived as crazy but dangerous), and future meddling in Russia's neighbour countries by the West would be deterred. If things got really bad for Russia or the corrupt mafia running it, even this dangerous path could be chosen as a way to avoid losing its grip on power.

This catastrophic scenario could even be perceived as a positive outcome by some Western countries, since it would weaken Russia yet the price would be paid only with Ukrainian lives. Ukraine must be mindful of this and not allow foreign countries to push it into such a scenario.

 

[Afif]

@Gary I am here with the others

First and foremost, Nuclear use will simply cut off Russia from rest of the World in terms of trade and economic activity ( and even from India and China I believe ) So, in my opinion it is not a risk worth taking from the Russian perspective. ( At least, for now they are doing reasonable on the economic front despite Western economic sanctions )

Secondly, there is no way I think it would be similar to the what happened in Japan
during WW II. ( besides, I don't believe Japan surrendered because of the nukes, but that's another topic for another time and not suitable here )

For multiple reason.

1. The scenarios would likely to be where Russia uses tactical nukes on the battle field, not on the cities ( even then, it will require at least half a dozen strike on multiple fronts to achieve considerable effect ) So, the effect on moral would be different.

2. But more importantly, West will double down on its support for Ukraine ( which Japan didn't had at all )

3. West will actually going to respond militarily, I believe. ( as US generals warned multiple times ) US likely to sink some of the Russian fleets in Baltic and black sea and USAF will simply bomb out the Russians out of Ukraine.



Conclusion, this is very unlikely to happen. And even if this happens, Ukraine is very unlikely to surrender, because West will definitely double down on its support and very likely to respond militarily.

In a nutshell, it will result in total economic and militarily defeat for the Russian federation. ( although it's border would be still intact )

 

[UkroTurk]

As i said before, if Ukraine is nuclear attacked, Russian nuclear plants will be blown.

Putin could use just tactical warhead with low radiation yield.

Putin couldnt send 10MT warhead Because % 99enriched uranium would damage euroAsian territory ( including Moscow)ten times more than Chernobyl explosion.
So if Ukraine became inhabited land , west of Russian Federation would share same catastrophe in case of -high yield- nuclear weapons.

 

[Kathirz]

For people to come to conclusion that nuclear strike on Ukraine could lead to capitulation is not unreasonable. But there is enough difference, enough nuance to anticipate that it not only would not lead to capitulation but it would only compound the disaster that is Ukraine for Russia further.

I don't see a way for UKR to capitulate after a nuclear strike in almost any scenario (can someone pose a realistic scenario?? Wipping out the entire UKR?? Could any paper signed unilaterally by Ukraine have any validity??) , as it would trigger an inmediate effect on current world rules and powers. (Nukeing a foreign nation in a war they have started)

Bear in mind that West won't let Ukraine to capitulate, as it affects this time directly to their own security, and dropping a nuclear weapon in Europe would have existential and reasonable doubts about our security. Can Ukraine capitulate? It doesn't matter, RU would be directly at war with Europe. Despite the initial fear, europeans doesn't want to live under the fear, and more if it's coming from RU, there are enough nuclear and non-nuclear weapons here to retaliate.

I think the scenario for Russia after launching a nuclear device in or nearby Ukraine, would lead to an inmediate triggering of several international implications and an extraordinary UN security council meeting with a lot of dooming, stockmarkets falling as hell and a news around the world blaming RU about any bad thing, including their allies after some days of uncertainty.

Key here is what is giving some oxigen to Russia is China and India, both nuclear powers. Yes I see them blocking a nuclear attack as a response by US.
But the tacit agreement that if Russia uses the weapon again, it would lead to a reataliation from several sides and contexts, even nuclear. That should prevent Russia to use it again, and giving time for the rest of the world to close the fence around current Moscow Elites.

Just think also on what common Russia population would do if (I don't know the exact number) more than a million? people left the country just thinking on being drafted for the war. What this could lead if the Russian people is under the thought of international community wondering about of a nuclear retaliation attack on them and where, after a war they started on foreign lands? What Belarus population would do with Luka for example? Can we see some significat RU army elements detaching from current goverment orders? I believe the fear effect would change from the West to RU itself and the sense of power from RU to the West, as we will be just wondering how to retaliate in any posible way including from many different countries, while RU elites blaming West every time with less reason.

That could lead to consecuences like US launching a conventional attack over a RU strategic asset like the Black sea fleet or completely destroy the Sevastopol base, which would negate one of the reasons for wanting Crimea, maybe striking some industrial sites at night near a big city? Or directly giving nuclear weapons to UKR. Putting even more diplomatic preassure on Moscow elites, maybe start open conversations with oligarchs ( who are going to adquire significant private security services and act outside national powers ), promote internal protests, talks with poor/secondary regions about independence and even further on helping those regions having nuclear weapons to change their firing control for being able to fire them by themselves, and giving security assurances to them.

We shall not forget that Putin unilaterally anexed Crimea, Dombas, Zaporiyia and Kherson, so he can be striked back with his own tactics, but this time even with simultaneous international recognition. What Manchuria ppl wants, what China doing? Are we going to see Khadirov fleeing from Chechnya? What Ru did on foreign democratic elections like in the US? Plenty of room here.

At the end all what West were doing until now was to provide UKR with weapons for being able of defending themselves, as some treaties signed by Russia states. Propaganda would not have any sense and they would be seen as the offenders who started the conflict, entering hard on the blaming game and openly arising the question if such government should exist.

I see that scenario even worse than detonating a nuclear weapon on its own territory.

 

[UkroTurk]

The first target would be Kursk NPPin case of nuclear scenario

Ukraine has weapons that reach to Kursk

Russian warplanes, artillery widen attack, hit industry hub

Russia’s airplanes and artillery are widening their assault on Ukraine, striking airfields in the west and a major industrial hub in the east.

apnews.com

 

[MaciekRS]

So Slovakian MiGs cleared the road for future REAL planes like Mirage 2000 and F16. You can just fly your planes straight to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638961028699398147

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639114851648667651

 

[Bogeyman]

The first target would be Kursk NPPin case of nuclear scenario
View attachment 55332
Ukraine has weapons that reach to Kursk
View attachment 55334

Russian warplanes, artillery widen attack, hit industry hub

Russia’s airplanes and artillery are widening their assault on Ukraine, striking airfields in the west and a major industrial hub in the east.

apnews.com

View attachment 55333
View attachment 55336

No European country would accept Ukraine attacking a nuclear power plant in the middle of Europe. They do everything to prevent it. Of course, I don't think they would care if a nuclear power plant in Russia, which is far from Europe, goes out of control through sabotage. Yet sabotaging those power plants is tantamount to committing suicide. Because I don't think those who carried out the sabotage will survive after the power plant goes out of control.

 

[Nilgiri]

to be honest, I think the West has made it in pretty clear terms (behind closed doors) to Putin what could/would happen if he used even one TAC-Nuke.

Its very much likely that is large part of why he hasn't used one yet...given the tremendous amounts lost in this war in men and material from Russian side.

Russia has been really badly mauled by this war.....like really bad.

 

[Nilgiri]

Russia Braces For Attack By 50,000 Ukrainian Kamikaze Drones, Seeks Shotguns

Social media is often a good way to get an unfiltered view of what military thinkers are discussing. Posts by a blogger using the handle Russian Engineer usually get few thousand views, but one of his latest entries has now been seen 1.9 million times with a dire warning.

www.forbes.com

 

[UkroTurk]

Russian forces preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensive, says Medvedev​

Russian forces preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensive, says Medvedev

Former president also warns Moscow will use ‘absolutely any weapon’ if Kyiv attempts to retake Crimea

www.theguardian.com

 

[UkroTurk]

Russia Braces For Attack By 50,000 Ukrainian Kamikaze Drones, Seeks Shotguns

Social media is often a good way to get an unfiltered view of what military thinkers are discussing. Posts by a blogger using the handle Russian Engineer usually get few thousand views, but one of his latest entries has now been seen 1.9 million times with a dire warning.

www.forbes.com

The Cabinet of Ministers launched the mass production of Ukrainian drones


Today's solution will allow UAV manufacturers to develop more actively, scale up, reinvest profits, and compete with foreign companies.

The Cabinet of Ministers adopted a resolution that will significantly speed up the creation and delivery of domestic drones to the front.

This was stated by Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Development of Education, Science and Technology - Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov.

 

[UkroTurk]

Russian Telegram channel:

The moment of the passage of enemy naval drones to bay of Sevastopol.

The exit was seen from Odessa. On the approaches to Sevastopol, there was a grid that became an obstacle for one of them, but still two drones managed to bypass the obstacle, in a very simple way. When gaining speed, the drone stands on the "Goat" and he manages to make a jump in front of his obstacle.

As a result, all the drones were destroyed, but this does not give a reason to relax, you need to prepare for new sabotage

🇷🇺 DONTSTOPWAR

Момент прохода вражеских Дронов на территорию Севастополя. Выход был замечен с Одессы. На подходах к Севастополю , стояла сетка , которая стала для одного из них преградой , но все же два дрона, умудрились обойти препятствие, очень простым способом. При наборе скорости , дрон встаёт на "Козла"...

t.me

Tonight, an enemy drone was destroyed in the Sevastopol region.

🇷🇺 DONTSTOPWAR

Сегодня ночью , был уничтожен вражеский беспилотник в районе Севастополя. @dontstopwar

t.me

 

[UkroTurk]

F-16 in the sky of Ukraine. AFU Quick Plan

An American top pilot revealed a scheme on how to send F-16s to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

The AFU supported his idea.


Last week, the "most deadly" US F-16 pilot, retired Lieutenant Colonel Dan Gampton (callsign Two Dogs), said he was personally ready to defend the Ukrainian skies.
Several of his American and European colleagues also agreed to fight against Russia.

Attracting foreign pilots is a real scheme that will help Kyiv quickly deploy F-16s on its territory and send fighters into battle. To do this, as Gampton clarified, the governments of the countries must resolve the issue of private military contractors to fly over Ukraine. And it seems that this plan has begun to be implemented.

"Very realistic option"

The Ukrainian authorities may purchase the F-16, the most affordable fighter model in Europe, however, the main issue in this case remains unresolved - specialists, Gampton believes.

“I would say that there are enough American pilots who are willing to do this if the government resolves their issues. Our government is very confused and complicated, and this is a question for them. There are also European pilots training on the F-16, so there are enough pilots for this. There are just some important details about working and fighting for another government that would need to be worked out," he said.

The top pilot emphasized that Russia's war against Ukraine is good against evil, it is a "black and white conflict": "So I think that in this spirit, governments that can provide these services should do it, and I hope that they'll do it. I'll even go myself, I'll be number one, you can count on me."

The door is open to everyone"

The Armed Forces of Ukraine quickly responded to the proposal of the American pilot and reported that "the door is open" for everyone. Foreigners can serve in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, be pilots or employees of the aviation engineering staff, if they have a military specialty, said Yury Ignat, a representative of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

 

[Ecderha]

Any putin pilots coming up to play today?
Or does their courage run out against armed adversaries?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639347536866471937

 

[Ecderha]

Scavengers, putin solider looting their own killed comrades

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638917843600175105

 

[GoatsMilk]

Most of Ukraine would become uninhabitable for the next century, Russia would become economically and politically isolated, but the Russian govt would regain some respect domestically and internationally (it would be perceived as crazy but dangerous), and future meddling in Russia's neighbour countries by the West would be deterred. If things got really bad for Russia or the corrupt mafia running it, even this dangerous path could be chosen as a way to avoid losing its grip on power.

This catastrophic scenario could even be perceived as a positive outcome by some Western countries, since it would weaken Russia yet the price would be paid only with Ukrainian lives. Ukraine must be mindful of this and not allow foreign countries to push it into such a scenario.

You dont get respect for nuking a much smaller and weaker nation you invaded/attacked because your army was getting her arse kicked in. To the contrary they nuke Ukraine because of the fact their failing big time and it will further tarnish their reputation. They will become that big pussy nation who couldn't handle the fight they started against the smaller kid, so they had to cheat their way out of it.

Dropping a nuke on england, france or america could garner some respect as it will show the world that the nuclear powers supporting Ukraine that Russia is not fearful of them, however dropping nukes on nuclear powers will be suicide for Russia.

Now in terms of being seen as more dangerous and powerful, it will be fleeting because it will force every nation who has issues with Russia to get their own nuclear arsenal thus neutralising the last great advantage the Russians have over their foes, nuclear weapons. For example if Russia nuked Ukraine you can guarantee 100% that Poland will acquire nukes seeing it as critical to the defence of their nation in the face of Russian threats. Other nations would follow the same path too. Once all of Russias rivals also obtain nuclear weapons, then what does Russia have left? Shitty soviet era tech against the best guns the west can provide?

 

[Relic]

Today 5 more European countries joined the coalition to procure and manufacture artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The coalition intends to provide 1 million rounds of 155mm, 152mm and 122mm artillery ammunition over the next 12 months.

The 5 new members of the coalition include...
Italy
Spain
Hungary
Lithuania
Poland

All of those countries will make important donations, but two countries in particular, Poland and Spain, have large production capacity. Furthermore, Hungary produces MUCH needed soviet caliber munitions that Ukraine is desperately lacking for their legacy artillery pieces.

Ukraine has hundreds of D-20, D-30, Giatsint-B and Msta-B towed howitzers and hundreds more Gvozdika, Akatsiya, Giatsint-S and Msta-S, self-propelled howitzers. If Ukraine can manage to even procure 30,000 rounds per month of the Russian / Soviet caliber shells, they'll be able to put a quality number of their legacy systems back into use. This will greatly help the supplementation of Western artillery, especially because it will take another year+ before many of the systems that Ukraine bought make their way to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639291439631810562