Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Gary

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Geert Wilders's election's surprising catalyst is the ban on Russian gas, which led to soaring high energy prices in Europe and a drop in the quality of living. Everywhere in Europe, populists are on the march. From Orban, Fico, and Now Geert. This is bad news for Ukraine as these people have a history of being a Russophile.

Let's see next year French election.

20150504-geert-wilders-texas-shootings.jpg
 

Spitfire9

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Although a blow to the enemy, I do not think that destroying dozens of the enemy's armoured vehicles here and there will win the war, given that Russia and the US have thousands in storage.
 

Ecderha

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Ecderha

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First documented lose of China provided military vehicle to ruzzia.


It is known that china provide monition of different type to ruzzia.
Also there were news about china providing vehicles too.Now we have facts.

news couple of months ago state about this -> "china own origin military vehicle Desertcross were delivered to ruzzia. Amount is 1000+ they are in ruzzian service."
 

GoatsMilk

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First documented lose of China provided military vehicle to ruzzia.


It is known that china provide monition of different type to ruzzia.
Also there were news about china providing vehicles too.Now we have facts.

news couple of months ago state about this -> "china own origin military vehicle Desertcross were delivered to ruzzia. Amount is 1000+ they are in ruzzian service."

good stuff, now the Europeans can think even harder about constantly shitting on Turks and supporting terrorists against our people and nation. Now the chinese are supplying the Russians. Maybe a year or two from now the Chinese send troops to help the Russian invasion of Europe.

Maybe the Chinese will see this war as an opportunity to pay the Europeans back for their century of "humiliation". Maybe eastern europeans will see chinese soldiers in their cities in the not to distant future.
 

Gary

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There is one fact about person: If person eagerly state something and then he change his statement to opposite. it mean he do not know shit or he is simple put paid shit talking guy

I think his concern is legitimate. There's an air of general weariness in the West about what will come next. Seeing how easily the U.S. political leadership sways into other geopolitical issues, the rise of right-wing politicians to power all over Europe, who have in the past publicly spoken against Ukraine and in general the fatigue.
 

Gary

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Other than that we have seen a drop in military aid, a drop in the numbers of Western volunteers and generally speaking, for anyone following the war, as the war drags the optimism that was there in the opening days of February last year no longer exists. You could feel it in their statements, commentary etc.

Of course, nothing is final in war, but imo this drop of faith is faster than the drop of faith by Western powers in their war effort in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Korea.
 

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Gary

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the Western way of war is ALWAYS characterized by explosive enthusiasm at the start, and then wanes until completely surrenders near the end.

Sums up what I said before regarding war enthusiasm in the West.
 

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Nato should be prepared for bad news from Ukraine: Jens Stoltenberg

From the article; ””Wars are inherently unpredictable," the official said. "But we know that the more we support Ukraine, the faster the war will end," TASS reported.”

In other words, he still believes the war will end with a Ukrainian victory.
 

Gary

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Another event to watch forward:


IMO, American Muslims should vote for Trump, I know that Trump is worse than Biden and life will be so hard for you in the next 4 years. But this is not the time for people to enjoy life while their brothers and sisters on the other side of the world are being bombed and starved.

The Geopolitical shock of Trump getting back into office will turn the Western effort in Ukraine into a giant peril because Trump will likely sabotage the effort. Having Trump back in office in combination with the simultaneous rise of extreme right-wingers/Euroskeptics like Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Orban in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, and maybe soon Le Pen in France, could provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break the Western alliance. By making these Euroskeptic/MAGA/right wings waste time and effort with the Western democratic institutions and personalities.

Having these people in power might seem scary for you, but looking at the long-term prospect of damage these people can do in their own countries and their alliances, it's wise for you to bet.

Generally speaking a more right-wing dominated Europe could lead to the disintegration of the EU, because the core ideas of Euroskeptics like nationalism are in direct opposition to the EU's idea of inter-European integration. The rise of Right-wing politics in the UK led to Brexit, there's always a chance for Frexit, Dutchxit, Gerxit (whatever) due to the rise of nationalism fervor in these countries.

A divided Europe tends to go to war with one another like pre-WW2. Meanwhile, a right-wing MAGA USA will naturally retreat U.S. foreign policy back into isolationism. This could change the world order permanently and potentially create rifts that other actors could seek to exploit.

A Western defeat in Ukraine meant that for the first time in a long time, Europe would have to significantly increase defense spending to made up for their lack of defense investment since the end of the cold war and to cope with the reality of having a openly hostile country right next to Poland.

That means:
  • More defense spending = less welfare spending.
  • Less welfare spending = more angry population
  • More angry population = rise of extreme politicians to cater the population anger
  • rise of extreme politician = bad decision
  • bad decision = war/ many bad things/ chaos


There's even a possibility that conscription will be introduced back into Europe, which I don't think will be welcomed lightly by the generation born after the Cold war which are not use to the idea of forced service.

An isolationist America, a divided Europe which increasingly hostile to one a nother and also increasingly busy at home would make them less ready to fight contingency elsewhere and to meddle in other people's affair.

Forgetting Russia's own attrocity to Chechens in the 90s and Syria, there's every reason to bet that a Russian victory in Ukraine serve your purpose.
 

contricusc

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Generally speaking a more right-wing dominated Europe could lead to the disintegration of the EU, because the core ideas of Euroskeptics like nationalism are in direct opposition to the EU's idea of inter-European integration.

Or it could lead to the birth of a new idea of European nationalism, where the EU as a whole should become more selfish, militaristic and look for its own interests. This would not bode well for Russia and for Europe’s enemies.
 

Afif

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Or it could lead to the birth of a new idea of European nationalism, where the EU as a whole should become more selfish, militaristic and look for its own interests. This would not bode well for Russia and for Europe’s enemies.

That is what small countries probably hopes but I think @Gary is right. European style Nationalism (that was very prevalent until 1945) and and the idea of EU is almost mutually exclusive.
 
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Gary

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Or it could lead to the birth of a new idea of European nationalism, where the EU as a whole should become more selfish, militaristic and look for its own interests.

Can't do, the idea of nationalism and a united European identity can't coexist, not for long. In this kind of scenario, irredentism is the name of the game. Politicians in these "independent European states" would again seek to expand, avenge historical injustice, reclaim lost lands you name it.

Germans for example would've stared back at Poland, Danzig, and Alsace-Lorraine in France, or claim Memel for their own, France on the other hand would again harbor natural suspicions of German irredentism and sought to restore French hegemony in Europe. and so on and so on.

A decoupling of the EU meant that some European countries would lose market access, vital transport lanes, and job opportunities. Borders will be erected once again, resulting in even more alienation of a common identity. In the long run, the smaller European countries no longer have access to common prosperity, they will have to be absorbed by the bigger power just to survive.

As for foreign policy, they will likely compete against each other especially the big 4 of Germany, Italy, France, and the UK (they're no longer in the EU)= but you got the idea). You will no longer see an EUNAVFOR joint European patrol in the Persian Gulf because most of the contributor nations would prefer to keep their ships protecting their own coasts.




This would not bode well for Russia and for Europe’s enemies.

I mean this is a betting game, I'm not immune to mistakes, no one will be. But there's a trend and that trend could be manipulated.
 

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