Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1816039289890668947

The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Ukraine is ready to negotiate with the Russians.

 

[Slayer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815472719045198291

IMPORTANT: French and British soldiers killed in Ukraine! “I asked for confirmation and they told me that it is accurate. So, the Russians carried out an attack on Odessa, which killed 18 members of the British Special Air Service and injured 25 more. And they tell me that French soldiers died, not mercenaries who are French, no, these are soldiers of the French army. They were killed in large numbers.” — Colonel of the Spanish Army Reserve Pedro Baños

If true - there will be payback. Ten fold. More interestingly. What were they doing there?

 

[Agha Sher]

The situation is looking increasingly bleak for Ukraine. The frontline is slowly crumbling in multiple areas and we are reaching closer to a point of strategic collapse.
Ukraine is running out of soldiers and willingness to fight. Russia yet again close to winning through their usual fashion of tiring and depleting the opponent.

 

[Gary]

So how's life Ukraine?

Looks like your troops in Krasnogorovka has been encircled, Russia has expand beyond Prohres, occupied the center of Niu York, Novoselivka Persha the strong point westof Avdiivka is now occupied.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1816086111552495979

 

[Kartal1]

So how's life Ukraine?

Looks like your troops in Krasnogorovka has been encircled, Russia has expand beyond Prohres, occupied the center of Niu York, Novoselivka Persha the strong point westof Avdiivka is now occupied.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1816086111552495979

Damn! I thought Turkiye was going to lose Crimea for a second. Welcome back!

 

[Relic]

Good news on the military aid front. After further auditing aid sent to Ukraine using Presidential Drawdown Authority, the USA Pentagon found a further $2 Billion usd in depreciation errors regarding the equipment they've sent to Ukraine. As a result, the U.S. Will add $2 Billion usd to its Presidential Drawdown Authority pool of funds for Ukraine.

What can be sent for $2 Billion usd in funds? Here are a couple examples...

- 500 additional Bradley M2-ODS IFVs

OR

- 800,000 155mm artillery shells

OR

- 650 PAC 2/3 Patriot missiles

OR

- 2,600 AMRAAM missiles for NASAMS

OR

- 6,5000 AIM-9M sidewinders for NASAMS

Obviously, the money will be broken up between numerous weapons, but the point is that you can send a lot of kit out of U.S. inventories for that kind of money. Especially because items are valued in depreciated fashion rather than at book value.

Weiterleitungshinweis

Pentagon finds accounting errors worth $2 billion in aid for Ukraine

Due to the errors, the Defense Department can send a further $2 billion in weapons to Ukraine to cover the amount already approved by U.S. President Joe Biden.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the first strike by the Russian Lancet-52 kamikaze drone on a Ukrainian 120mm M120 Rak self-propelled mortar, made in Poland. The M120 Rak self-propelled mortar has been produced since 2016 and was previously in service with the 44th separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As a result of the Lancet drone strike, a fire started in the self-propelled mortar, which completely destroyed the combat vehicle; the location of the video shooting and what happened to the crew are unknown.

 

[Agha Sher]

Rapid collapse of Ukraine's army on the Pokrovsk front. Ukraine is losing a few villages on this front on a daily basis. Pokrovsk's is a major strategic city for Ukraine's military logistics in Donetsk and Luhansk. Frontline could be only 15km from the city.

 

[Relic]

Rapid collapse of Ukraine's army on the Pokrovsk front. Ukraine is losing a few villages on this front on a daily basis. Pokrovsk's is a major strategic city for Ukraine's military logistics in Donetsk and Luhansk. Frontline could be only 15km form them city.

Reminder that Russia occupied 18% of Ukraine at the beginning of 2024. That number has now risen to approximately 18.3% of Ukraine after 7 months of heavy fighting this year in which Russia's army resources (namely tanks, IFVs, APCs and Artillery barrels) continue to be drained at a much faster pace than they can be replenished. The pace of decline is set to increase as Russia's ability to remove weapons from storage and quickly rivitalize them to replace combat losses dwindles.

Make no mistake that is happening. Russia has largely run out of T-80 tanks In storage that they can salvage. Their T-72 tanks in storage are getting lower both in numbers and quality every month as they canabilize tanks to try to make up for component shortages. We're now seeing them activate hundreds of T-62 tanks to fill gaps, meaning they are going back 50-60 years to replace their modern tanks. Meanwhile their BMP-2/3 levels have fallen off a cliff as they get chewed up at an alarming rate during their offensives and their MT-LBs have virtually run dry in storage. For some months now Russia has been sending their troops into combat on Chinese made ATVs and dirt bikes in an attempt to slow down their alarming volume of losses among convential military vehicles. They have a healthy supply of troops and are continuing to recruit 20,000-30,000 new ones per month. What they don't have are the weapons of war to carry those troops into battle with.

All of that to take 0.03% of Ukraine in 2024. They are moving a snail's pace and Ukraine's capabilities and funding are only growing. Despite some "local successes", Russia's war effort continues to be a failure. Their Kharkiv offensive this year, for example, was an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Afif]

Reminder that Russia occupied 18% of Ukraine at the beginning of 2024. That number has now risen to approximately 18.3% of Ukraine after 7 months of heavy fighting this year in which Russia's army resources (namely tanks, IFVs, APCs and Artillery barrels) continue to be drained at a much faster pace than they can be replenished. The pace of decline is set to increase as Russia's ability to remove weapons from storage and quickly rivitalize them to replace combat losses dwindles.

Make no mistake that is happening. Russia has largely run out of T-80 tanks In storage that they can salvage. Their T-72 tanks in storage are getting lower both in numbers and quality every month as they canabilize tanks to try to make up for component shortages. We're now seeing them activate hundreds of T-62 tanks to fill gaps, meaning they are going back 50-60 years to replace their modern tanks. Meanwhile their BMP-2/3 levels have fallen off a cliff as they get chewed up at an alarming rate during their offensives and their MT-LBs have virtually run dry in storage. For some months now Russia has been sending their troops into combat on Chinese made ATVs and dirt bikes in an attempt to slow down their alarming volume of losses among convential military vehicles. They have a healthy supply of troops and are continuing to recruit 20,000-30,000 new ones per month. What they don't have are the weapons of war to carry those troops into battle with.

All of that to take 0.03% of Ukraine in 2024. They are moving a snail's pace and Ukraine's capabilities and funding are only growing. Despite some "local successes", Russia's war effort continues to be a failure. Their Kharkiv offensive this year, for example, was an unmitigated disaster.

These aren't decisive. Russia does not wage war on a tactical or operational level. They wage war at strategic level. Only time can tell where this will go in the end.

 

[Agha Sher]

Reminder that Russia occupied 18% of Ukraine at the beginning of 2024. That number has now risen to approximately 18.3% of Ukraine after 7 months of heavy fighting this year in which Russia's army resources (namely tanks, IFVs, APCs and Artillery barrels) continue to be drained at a much faster pace than they can be replenished. The pace of decline is set to increase as Russia's ability to remove weapons from storage and quickly rivitalize them to replace combat losses dwindles.

Make no mistake that is happening. Russia has largely run out of T-80 tanks In storage that they can salvage. Their T-72 tanks in storage are getting lower both in numbers and quality every month as they canabilize tanks to try to make up for component shortages. We're now seeing them activate hundreds of T-62 tanks to fill gaps, meaning they are going back 50-60 years to replace their modern tanks. Meanwhile their BMP-2/3 levels have fallen off a cliff as they get chewed up at an alarming rate during their offensives and their MT-LBs have virtually run dry in storage. For some months now Russia has been sending their troops into combat on Chinese made ATVs and dirt bikes in an attempt to slow down their alarming volume of losses among convential military vehicles. They have a healthy supply of troops and are continuing to recruit 20,000-30,000 new ones per month. What they don't have are the weapons of war to carry those troops into battle with.

All of that to take 0.03% of Ukraine in 2024. They are moving a snail's pace and Ukraine's capabilities and funding are only growing. Despite some "local successes", Russia's war effort continues to be a failure. Their Kharkiv offensive this year, for example, was an unmitigated disaster.

While your point is correct that Russia is being depleted, truth is that they are being depleted at an increasingly slower rate. Their military industrial complex has really stepped up and they continue to output more tanks, IFV etc.
Additionally, the Russian fighting machine has become more lethal and dynamic. Guided FAB bombs, Lancets etc. are creating havoc and Ukraine is bleeding many troops.

Our real problem is something different. While Russia is being depleted, Ukraine is being depleted faster. Both in terms of equipment but most importantly manpower. Russia is fighting a war of attrition and they are clearly winning.

In early 2024, Ukraine would lose a village every few weeks. In Q2 it was a few villages per week. Now in Q3, Ukraine is losing a few villages every day. It doesn't take a genius to realize the trend here. Ukraine has simply run out of soldiers to fight this war. A plurality of Ukrainians wants peace negotiations. Thousands of Ukraine men are fleeing the country every week to avoid serving in the Ukrainian army.

We had the chance to end the war and allow Ukraine to win in 2022 and early 2023. The West was too scared to really help Ukraine back then. Any help now is just in vain and lead to more Ukrainians dead. Truly we are fighting Russia till the last Ukrainian, unfortunately.

 

[2033]

For the Russians, human loss is not important. Maybe they lost twice as many troops as Ukraine, but by prolonging the war they can ensure that Ukraine is exhausted. The longer the war goes on, the closer the Russians will come to winning.

I think Ukraine regrets very much that it withdrew from the peace talks in Istanbul in March 2022.

 

[Relic]

While your point is correct that Russia is being depleted, truth is that they are being depleted at an increasingly slower rate. Their military industrial complex has really stepped up and they continue to output more tanks, IFV etc.
Additionally, the Russian fighting machine has become more lethal and dynamic. Guided FAB bombs, Lancets etc. are creating havoc and Ukraine is bleeding many troops.

Our real problem is something different. While Russia is being depleted, Ukraine is being depleted faster. Both in terms of equipment but most importantly manpower. Russia is fighting a war of attrition and they are clearly winning.

In early 2024, Ukraine would lose a village every few weeks. In Q2 it was a few villages per week. Now in Q3, Ukraine is losing a few villages every day. It doesn't take a genius to realize the trend here. Ukraine has simply run out of soldiers to fight this war. A plurality of Ukrainians wants peace negotiations. Thousands of Ukraine men are fleeing the country every week to avoid serving in the Ukrainian army.

We had the chance to end the war and allow Ukraine to win in 2022 and early 2023. The West was too scared to really help Ukraine back then. Any help now is just in vain and lead to more Ukrainians dead. Truly we are fighting Russia till the last Ukrainian, unfortunately.

It's a fallacy that I can't focus on enough that Russia's defense industry drastically increasing the production of MBTs and IFVs. That's completely false.

What Russia is doing is restoring armored vehicles that are left over from the Soviet era because it's much quicker process than building new vehicles from scratch. In order to do this, they are canibilizing other stored vehicles for their components. Russia's rate of NEW vehicles production has only increased a minor amount since the outset of the war. This is largely for 3 reasons.

1. It's extremely time consuming to produce brand new vehicles. This isn't unique to Russia. Anyone who builds modern armored vehicles has long lead times.

2. It's extremely expensive to build new armored vehicles, especially compared to the cost of refurbishing older ones. Even if that means you lose capability (see the turn en masse to T-62s) in the process.

3. It's extremely difficult for Russia to source mass quantities of components that use to come from the West for their modern armored vehicles. Sanctions have had a major impact in that area. It's much easier for them to modernize older Soviet vehicles, that exclusively used Soviet parts made in Russia.

There isn't Western propaganda or cope. There are dozens of open source information spheres out there, using video / photo evidence and satellite imaging, that you can see for yourself, that Russia is grinding it's offensive equipment at an alarming rate.

It is objectively true that Ukraine continues to employ a defense in depth strategy and it prefers to give up land when neccessary to save lives (it has far fewer soldiers than Russia) and equipment, but they aren't doing simply because they are "losing". Every major Russian offensive of the war has cost them hundreds (in some cases thousands) of armored vehicles that they will no longer be able to replace as they dig deeper into the Soviet stockpile and empty out their warehouses.

That's why I've been clamoring for the West to dig deeper in re-vitalize Ukraine's armored units as well. They too are facing attrition, but they are inflicting far more damage on the advancing Russians and slowly, but surely, exhausting their mechanized, offensive capability.

By the end of 2024 I want to see the following additional donations / purchases announced at a minimum...

62 Additional M1A1 Abrams MBTs
50 Additional Leopard 2 MBTs
50 Additional Leopard 1 MBTs
50 Additional AMX-10RCs
200 Additional Bradley M2-ODS IFVs
100 Additional Marder IFVs
100 Additional BMP-1/2 IFVs
50 Additional CV90 IFVs
50 Additional KTO Rosomak IFVs
100 Additional Stryker APCs
200 Additional M113 APCs
300 Additional VAB APCs
300 Additional MRAPS

All of this exists in Western storage / on Western production lines, without impacting any Western military readiness. Ukraine is in the process of conscripting 200,000-300,000 additional soldiers. They are training at least 5 new brigades and replenishing existing ones. The armor I listed above goes an extremely long way. Ukraine has proven capable of trading small amounts of it for large amounts of Russia's "equivalent".

 

[Relic]

Spain will send an additional Hawk phase III air defense battery to Ukraine in the early fall. Ukrainian troops will train to use the battery in Spain before returning to Ukraine to deploy. Ukraine has used their existing Hawk air defense systems extremely effectively shooting down both cruise missiles and Shahed drones.

The battery usually consists of 6 independent launchers and an accompanying radar system.
Both USA and Spain have been working to refurbish hundreds of stored HAWK air defense missiles for transfer to Ukraine. They are a cheap, effective interceptor that are considered obsolete in the West, but save Ukraine's PAC-2/3 Patriot interceptors and AMRAAM / AIM-9 NASAMS interceptors for high valued targets.

Spain to provide additional Hawk air defense battery to Ukraine

Spain will provide Ukraine with another Hawk air defense system in September, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said during a video call with her Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov, on July ...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Gary]

The battle of Krasnogorovka is mostly completed.

 

[Gary]

Their Kharkiv offensive this year, for example, was an unmitigated disaster.

In chess, they call it the Gambit

gam·bit​

/ˈɡambət/​

a device, action, or opening remark, typically one entailing a degree of risk, that is calculated to gain an advantage.​

I have said about this earlier here

Now here's a comprehensive thread about those things I said earlier in June. 8 brigades that should've hold the Line in Donbass was diverted towards Kharkiv, and the result is for everyone to see.

It's just a matter of time before Russia identifies a thinly defended line, and punch through it like a hot knife on a butter.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1813254935221576165

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1813254941164581028

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1813254945996763526

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1813254953504502150

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of an artillery duel in Ukraine has been published, between the Russian 203-mm 2S7M Malka SPG and the Ukrainian 155-mm German-made PzH 2000 SPG. The Malka SPG is the most powerful weapon in the Russian army, with a firing range of up to 47 kilometers. The Panzerhaubitze 2000 SPG began to be produced in Germany in 1998, with a firing range of up to 67 km with an active-reactive projectile. The artillery battle was filmed in the Avdiivka direction. The Ukrainian PzH 2000 SPG was destroyed with the third shot at a range of 20 km, the Malka SPG used a high-explosive fragmentation projectile. The fire of the Malka SPG was adjusted by a crew from the Russian ZALA reconnaissance drone.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian servicemen spoke about the experience of using the Shturm-S self-propelled anti-tank missile systems in Ukraine; the 9P149 combat vehicles have not been shown for almost a year. The Shturm-S anti-tank system was adopted for service in 1979 and was created on the chassis of the MT-LB transporter-tractor; technical information about it is on the channel. The 9P149 combat vehicle is highly rated by soldiers for its cross-country ability, reliability, speed and squat silhouette. Details in the video.

 

[Gary]

Russia has reached the center of Niu York

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1817508758651560156

 

[Gary]

Reports that RF has entered Chasiv Yar proper. This city is even more strategic than Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1817605145485562283