Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Iskander

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Think Tank Analyst
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Age
63
Nation of residence
Azerbaijan
Nation of origin
Azerbaijan
I would not unequivocally state that a war of attrition is necessarily in Russia's favor. Of course, if we compare the incomparable, that is, the resources of Ukraine and Russia, then this is true. But there are other things that can change the situation in the opposite direction. Attrition requires not only resources, but also time. Yes, this is not in Ukraine's favor. But it is time (as a factor) that can bring surprises. A lot depends on who will become the owner of the White House. It is unknown what actions Trump will take. There is also Germany. If the United States refuses to help Ukraine, it cannot be ruled out that the Germans will be forced to replace them. There is also Poland, with a powerful army. Over the 880 days of the war, the situation on the fronts has changed dramatically several times. Let us remember that in February the Russians were standing near Kiev, and everyone was waiting for the capital to fall. But in March, negotiations were already underway in Istanbul. In April, the Russians were forced to retreat. In September, the Russians were driven out of Kharkov, and in November they left Kherson. The Ukrainians held out well until the unsuccessful offensive in June 2023. Then the Russians advanced constantly for a whole year. But the progress was not that significant.
That is, the positions of the parties may still change.
I think that Ukraine will be able to hold off the Russians until Trump's inauguration. And then my cards show nothing :)
I do not understand Trump. Who his advisers will be and what they will advise him is impossible to predict. But I do not rule out that NATO (or several of its Eastern European members) will be forced to send troops to Ukraine next year.
Let's remember that in December 1941, the Germans were near Moscow. Then, for 880 days, the war continued with varying success for both sides. And just 2 months after the Allied landing in Normandy, the Soviet Army reached its borders (by the way, yesterday marked the 80th anniversary of this event). Before the attack on Ukraine, who could have thought that the formidable, so-called second army of the world, objectively speaking, is no good?!... In general, the Chechen and Georgian wars showed that "the devil is not as black as he is painted". But after all, two "State programs for the rearmament of the army" were adopted in 8 years, and according to the reports it looked really powerful. But then it turned out...
It is too early to draw pessimistic conclusions. As the Ukrainians themselves say - "Ukraine is not dead yet!" Ще не вимерла Україна!
 
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