Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

NEKO

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Another event to watch forward:


IMO, American Muslims should vote for Trump, I know that Trump is worse than Biden and life will be so hard for you in the next 4 years. But this is not the time for people to enjoy life while their brothers and sisters on the other side of the world are being bombed and starved.

The Geopolitical shock of Trump getting back into office will turn the Western effort in Ukraine into a giant peril because Trump will likely sabotage the effort. Having Trump back in office in combination with the simultaneous rise of extreme right-wingers/Euroskeptics like Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Orban in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, and maybe soon Le Pen in France, could provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break the Western alliance. By making these Euroskeptic/MAGA/right wings waste time and effort with the Western democratic institutions and personalities.

Having these people in power might seem scary for you, but looking at the long-term prospect of damage these people can do in their own countries and their alliances, it's wise for you to bet.

Generally speaking a more right-wing dominated Europe could lead to the disintegration of the EU, because the core ideas of Euroskeptics like nationalism are in direct opposition to the EU's idea of inter-European integration. The rise of Right-wing politics in the UK led to Brexit, there's always a chance for Frexit, Dutchxit, Gerxit (whatever) due to the rise of nationalism fervor in these countries.

A divided Europe tends to go to war with one another like pre-WW2. Meanwhile, a right-wing MAGA USA will naturally retreat U.S. foreign policy back into isolationism. This could change the world order permanently and potentially create rifts that other actors could seek to exploit.

A Western defeat in Ukraine meant that for the first time in a long time, Europe would have to significantly increase defense spending to made up for their lack of defense investment since the end of the cold war and to cope with the reality of having a openly hostile country right next to Poland.

That means:
  • More defense spending = less welfare spending.
  • Less welfare spending = more angry population
  • More angry population = rise of extreme politicians to cater the population anger
  • rise of extreme politician = bad decision
  • bad decision = war/ many bad things/ chaos


There's even a possibility that conscription will be introduced back into Europe, which I don't think will be welcomed lightly by the generation born after the Cold war which are not use to the idea of forced service.

An isolationist America, a divided Europe which increasingly hostile to one a nother and also increasingly busy at home would make them less ready to fight contingency elsewhere and to meddle in other people's affair.

Forgetting Russia's own attrocity to Chechens in the 90s and Syria, there's every reason to bet that a Russian victory in Ukraine serve your purpose.
What a chaotic scenario, what would happen in the asian theatre then? We have a giant panda that seems so eager to pop a fireworks for their expansionism ambitions.
 

Gary

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What a chaotic scenario, what would happen in the asian theatre then? We have a giant panda that seems so eager to pop a fireworks for their expansionism ambitions.

There are countries half our size, with a trickle of our GDP and a lot less industrial output than ours that did not hang their security with the Americans and they appear to be just fine, this is the kind of mentality why we, a nation of nearly 300 million people could not pull our weight in the international arena.

We have until 2049 to gear up, use the time to rapidly and aggressively militarize then hope for the best when the shit show in the Pacific. A country that could not defend itself is a country that did not deserve to exist.
 

contricusc

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Can't do, the idea of nationalism and a united European identity can't coexist, not for long. In this kind of scenario, irredentism is the name of the game. Politicians in these "independent European states" would again seek to expand, avenge historical injustice, reclaim lost lands you name it.

Not necessary. Times change, and so do ideologies. Yes, there are some old school nationalists who think in the 1930s terms, but most European nationalists are modernized and understand the new global dynamics. European nations are too weak now compared to what they were at the start of last century, and most nationalists know that Europe needs to compete with the US, China and Russia, not against itself.

I know nationalistic people and most of them like the idea of a European identity, but dislike the current “values” of the EU. If nationalism starts to win elections across Europe, it will most likely start to form a new nationalist block in the European Parliament focused on reforming the EU to their liking, not to dismantle it.

Most modern European nationalists are pro Christianity and anti immigration (especially against non-European immigration), so they could easily reach a consensus based on anti-immigration rethoric.

Europeans like their privilege of moving freely across the EU, and most of them have travelled a lot and have friendly feelings towards other European nations. What nationalists don’t like is the open borders migration policy when it comes to African and Asian migrants and the LGBTQ agenda of the EU.

If they get into power, they can stop non-European migration and abolish pro-LGBTQ laws, and become the new fans of a nationalistic protectionist EU.

Germans for example would've stared back at Poland, Danzig, and Alsace-Lorraine in France, or claim Memel for their own, France on the other hand would again harbor natural suspicions of German irredentism and sought to restore French hegemony in Europe. and so on and so on.

Not gonna happen anymore. But they could both set their sights on Russian resources to the East.

A decoupling of the EU meant that some European countries would lose market access, vital transport lanes, and job opportunities. Borders will be erected once again, resulting in even more alienation of a common identity.

Not going to happen. Almost nobody in Europe wants to erect the borders back. What they want is a big border in the Mediterranean and the stopping of non-European migration.

I mean this is a betting game, I'm not immune to mistakes, no one will be. But there's a trend and that trend could be manipulated.

Nobody is immune to mistakes. I may very well be mistaken as well, but my feeling is that modern European nationalism is based mostly on the Europe against the World mentality, rather than the Country vs Country mentality of the past century.

The influx of non-European migrants in Europe has created a common “enemy” for nationalists, and suddenly Europeans have more in common than what separates them, in comparison to the non European migrants.

Also, the dominance of the US creates a common imperial rival, which unites European nationalists rather than divide them.

There is this misconceptiom that European nationalists are pro Russia and against Ukraine, but this is only a small part of them, and the reasons for this is not their love of Russia, but their hatred of the US and the EU in its current form. They don’t support Ukraine because the US and the EU support it, not because they like Russia.

If the US abandons Ukraine, there is a great chance that Europeans will suddenly considr Ukraine as theirs to protect and defend.

Politics are fluid, and politicians are opportunists. Nationalist politicians are usually the most populist and they can change thier ideology whenever the wind blows in a different direction.

The pro-Russian crowd was happy when Meloni won in Italy, and what happened was that Italy greatly increased its military help for Ukraine under Meloni. The same could be true if Le Pen would win in France.
 

Soldier30

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Footage of an attack by two Ukrainian FPV drones on a homemade Russian robotic platform has been published. The video was filmed in the Avdeevsky direction; a Russian tracked drone was used to deliver ammunition and food in the most dangerous directions, where the use of conventional transport is too risky. The Russian drone is equipped with the Volnorez electronic warfare system, which we previously talked about. At the time of the attack, the Breakwater electronic warfare system was not installed on the tracked drone.

 

Gary

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Btw Geert Wilders ancestors does have Indonesian blood, his family was once a Dutch offical in Indonesia which was fired and his family has to live in poverty after that, maybe that;s why he hated Islam and Brown people so much.


His grandfather, Johan Ording, was born in Utrecht, Netherlands, and spent dozens of years working in the Dutch East Indies. There, Johan met his wife, Johanna or Annie Meijer, of Indo descent who was born and raised in the Dutch East Indies.

Ording, his wife and seven children were then deported from the Dutch East Indies because they were suspected of committing fraud and corruption.
This family was said to be begging and was threatened with being evicted from their rental while living in a small village in the Netherlands.
"They want to show themselves as white people, and from that angle it is not surprising that Wilders adheres to extreme right fascists," said Nico to BBC News Indonesia journalist, Raja Eben Lumbanrau, Friday (24/11).

Historian from Gadjah Mada University Satrio Dwicahyo said that the extreme right attitude of a group of Indo people could not be separated from their bitter experience of being "expelled from Indonesia, and rejected by Dutch society".
 

Ecderha

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May be "sound like".
But also smell like repeating ruzzian propaganda from this source of news.
It is also known from Ukraine's that this "pravda" source of news that they are anti- government on many news which they fabricated.
I say fabricated because "pravda" is known to not provide any prove and they always look to fabricate some shity headlines.


I am not defending anyone here. Just saying that "pravda" news in Ukraine is fabricating and repeating ruzzian propaganda and there are many ruzzians which eat this shits and feel better
 

Spitfire9

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I think that the desire to co-ordinate through NATO the donations offered by various countries was a mistake. In my opinion it slowed delivery down due to subjecting them to avoidable bureaucracy. In any event, if the UK wanted to supply Storm Shadow, what business would that be of NATO? As far as I know NATO does not own any of the UK's stock of Storm Shadow.
 

Ecderha

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Relic

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Finland 🇫🇮 today announced that they will increase artillery shell production over the coming weeks, and plan to invest tens of millions of dollars throughout 2024 to help Ukraine stay in thr artillery fight.

Furthermore, Finland is planning to up its proposed 2024 budget, so that it has the overall capacity to help further supply Ukraine with military equipment and ammunition throughout the 2024 fiscal year.

https://kyivindependent.com/finland...to increase its,Iltalehti published on Dec. 5.
 

Ecderha

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Former member of Ukrainian parliament Ilya Kiva one of main saboteurs, traitor was killed near Moscow.

Pro-ruzzian collaborator who called to nuke Ukraine and Kyiv!
In January 2022 he left Ukraine and later ended up in Moscow.
He supported the beginning of the ruzzian invasion of Ukraine.
Actively participated in ruzzian propaganda.
On the 15 March 2022, he was deprived of his mandate, following comments in support of ruzzian invasion of Ukraine.

 

Relic

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New USA 🇺🇸 $175 million usd defense package for Ukraine has been announced. For those tracking, USA has $4.6 Billion usd remaining in their previously announced Presidential Drawdown Authority package. That said, they've now run out of replenishment money for their own stocks, which means that any additional aid sent to Ukraine cannot be replaced using Pentagon funds until an additional aid package is announced.

The contents of package include...

- Additional AIM-9 air defense missiles
- Additional AIM-7 air defense missiles
- Additional GMLRS for HIMARS
- Additional 155mm artillery shells
- Additional 105mm artillery shells
- HAARM anti-radiation missiles
- TOW missiles
- Javelin anti-armor systems
- AT4 anti-armor systems
- 4 million rounds of small arms ammo
- Vehicles to tow and haul equipment
- Demolitions equipment
- Spare parts, maintenance and other equipment
- Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure

 

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