Another event to watch forward:
The bubbling anger among Arab and Muslim Americans over the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict could threaten his chances of reelection.
www.politico.com
IMO, American Muslims should vote for Trump, I know that Trump is worse than Biden and life will be so hard for you in the next 4 years. But this is not the time for people to enjoy life while their brothers and sisters on the other side of the world are being bombed and starved.
The Geopolitical shock of Trump getting back into office will turn the Western effort in Ukraine into a giant peril because Trump will likely sabotage the effort. Having Trump back in office in combination with the simultaneous rise of extreme right-wingers/Euroskeptics like Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Orban in Hungary, Fico in Slovakia, and maybe soon Le Pen in France, could provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break the Western alliance. By making these Euroskeptic/MAGA/right wings waste time and effort with the Western democratic institutions and personalities.
Having these people in power might seem scary for you, but looking at the long-term prospect of damage these people can do in their own countries and their alliances, it's wise for you to bet.
Generally speaking a more right-wing dominated Europe could lead to the disintegration of the EU, because the core ideas of Euroskeptics like nationalism are in direct opposition to the EU's idea of inter-European integration. The rise of Right-wing politics in the UK led to Brexit, there's always a chance for Frexit, Dutchxit, Gerxit (whatever) due to the rise of nationalism fervor in these countries.
A divided Europe tends to go to war with one another like pre-WW2. Meanwhile, a right-wing MAGA USA will naturally retreat U.S. foreign policy back into isolationism. This could change the world order permanently and potentially create rifts that other actors could seek to exploit.
A Western defeat in Ukraine meant that for the first time in a long time, Europe would have to significantly increase defense spending to made up for their lack of defense investment since the end of the cold war and to cope with the reality of having a openly hostile country right next to Poland.
That means:
- More defense spending = less welfare spending.
- Less welfare spending = more angry population
- More angry population = rise of extreme politicians to cater the population anger
- rise of extreme politician = bad decision
- bad decision = war/ many bad things/ chaos
There's even a possibility that conscription will be introduced back into Europe, which I don't think will be welcomed lightly by the generation born after the Cold war which are not use to the idea of forced service.
An isolationist America, a divided Europe which increasingly hostile to one a nother and also increasingly busy at home would make them less ready to fight contingency elsewhere and to meddle in other people's affair.
Forgetting Russia's own attrocity to Chechens in the 90s and Syria, there's every reason to bet that a Russian victory in Ukraine serve your purpose.
