Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Relic

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Ecuador 🇪🇨 will transfer 6 Osa-AKM SAM air defense systems to the United States 🇺🇸 for transfer to Ukraine 🇺🇦. This deal was previously reported, but the details had not yet been released.

The OSA-AKMs are part of $200 million usd exchange, in which Ecuador will send Ukraine a variety of Soviet era weapons, in exchange for American made weapons of a type that has not yet been disclosed.

This deal is similar to the "Ringtausch" deals that Germany has been making with European countries to send their Soviet era equipment to Ukraine.

This is an excellent way for the United States to continue supporting Ukraine's key needs (in this case air defense) while they await further direct funding to be passed by Congress.

The Americans have made a similar deal with Greece 🇬🇷, as part of their sale of F-35s. The Greeks will send undisclosed military items to Ukraine (believed to be additional BMP-1s and S-300 missiles, if not the entire systems) and in exchange, the Americans are selling the Greeks the F-35, while their Turkish rivals will have to settle for the newest version of the F-16.

 
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UkroTurk

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The issue of aid to Ukraine is hanging in the US Senate. Even if military aid can be pushed through, there are many reasons to doubt the money will come, given deep opposition among Republicans and former US President Donald Trump, The New York Times writes.

It is noted that President Joe Biden's aides insist that they are not yet looking for other options other than passing a bipartisan relief package. But behind the scenes, other options are being discussed in Washington and Europe, including seizing more than $300 billion in Russian central bank assets. However, this issue turned out to be more difficult than expected.


Journalists say the possibility of complex arms exchanges is also being discussed, similar to what Japan and South Korea did, which provided the US with their artillery shells, freeing Washington to provide more assistance to Ukraine. Both countries have said they cannot export weapons directly to war zones. It is also possible that European countries will pay for American weapons and their delivery to Ukraine.
 

Iskander

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From a careful goe-strategic analysis, I would suggest Russia backs down from such a plan, Southeast Asia is too far away and the physical body in the form of water that separates Russia from SE Asia would make such an adventure ludicrously expensive. IMO, the next expansion after Ukraine should be (as Tatarigami from X suggests) the Baltics, if the situation permits. Once the Baltics are in hand, that means either:

  1. NATO is dead
  2. The U.S. cease to be a superpower that is capable of projecting power and stop Russia
From there Russia should use the manpower from acquired land to adventure North, towards Finland. Finland might not have that many population, but what they have is a huge real estate in the form of land (est 338,472 sq km) and coastline (31,119 km (19,336 mi)) That would guarantee security to Saint Petersburg and the ability of the Baltic fleet to sortie towards the Baltics unopposed by the Gulf of Finland.

A successful absorption of Finland technically means that Russia is a stone's throw away from securing Norway's long coastline and removing the threat towards the Russian navy's base in Murmansk (HQ of the Northern fleet).

Absorption of Norway into Russia's private property meant that the Russian long-range bomber group would have absolute free reign in the GIUK gap and flying from newly acquired bases in Bodo and Orland threatens shipping in this increasingly crucial shipping line.

GIUK-AO-map-final-final.jpg


So it's going to be Baltics >>> Finland >>> Norway. In the first phase

For the Next phase, it's up to Russia. They could absorb Sweden and turn an estimated 3,218 km of coastline into the previously added coastline from neighboring Baltic states and Finland and turn the Baltics into a Russian lake or turn the gun towards Poland.

This is in my opinion, a more sound strategic goals for Russia and put into account Russia's unique security concerns
Look, the Russians are taking aim
to Finland, Norway, the Atlantic...
Leave this "Tale of the Vienna Woods."
Better yet, show where the “invincible” “Second World Army” was stuck for 2 years? She's already taken over New York, hasn't she?
No, no, not that New York. I mean a tiny village located near Donetsk...
When they take this village, then we'll talk about the Atlantic :LOL:
 

Gary

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Look, the Russians are taking aim
to Finland, Norway, the Atlantic...
Leave this "Tale of the Vienna Woods."
Better yet, show where the “invincible” “Second World Army” was stuck for 2 years? She's already taken over New York, hasn't she?
No, no, not that New York. I mean a tiny village located near Donetsk...
When they take this village, then we'll talk about the Atlantic :LOL:

Of course that is a hypothetical scenario. I mean you asked me for my wisdom on where should Russia land next so I gave you my opinion on that.

Now that Russia is in a stalemate, it's best to attrit as many Ukrainians as possible and throw incentives for Ukrainians to flee the country toward receptive EU countries. Note that Ukraine has only about 28-30 million people under its administration now, or maybe even less with all the migration towards EU, US,Canada and even Bali in Indonesia.


Once Russia finds a way to break through the stalemate I suggest Russia make a deal with Hungary, Poland and Romania to divide the country. That will save them the manpower for a region that is traditionally not Russia's such as Lwow, Transcarpathia etc.

For that, I suggest the UN create a new agency called the UNIAFUD (United Nations Integration Agency For Ukrainian Displaced), the task is mainly on how to integrate the Ukrainians that find themselves in the territory of these 4 countries to better integrate with their new host country. Even in war humanity must be uphold to the highest standard
 

Relic

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Why is nobody here telling that the bill for Ukraine is rejected?

Because it hasn't been. Happy to keep you up to date, however, because I know you're not from this hemisphere.

There are two bills in the U.S. Senate right now and both have the same $60.1 Billion usd for Ukraine, $14.6 Billion usd for Israel and $2.1 Billion usd for Taiwan. However, the bill that was rejected yesterday contains $20 Billion usd worth of funding for the U.S. border, as well as significant changes to U.S. immigration policy. The total of the bill was $118 billion usd.

Today, the Senate will reconvene at 12:00pm EST, to vote on the same foreign aid package, with the border changes (and funding) stripped out of it. That bill is expected to pass in the Senate, and will total, approximately, $95 billion usd.

The $60.1 Billion Ukraine aid funding is coming. Don't let grifters and propagandists like Jackson Hinckle try to tell you differently.
 
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Relic

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In a 218 to 42 vote, the Italian 🇮🇹 Senate has approved a decree to authorize the direct transfer of weapons from Italian military inventories, to Ukraine. Italy has one of the most robust armies in Europe and while they are notoriously quiet about what they transfer Ukraine, this decree is compressive in that it covers "vehicles, materials and equipment". I look forward to see what they send in 2024. Here is what would be at the top of my list of items that could reasonably be transferred.

- B1 Centauro light tanks
- Dardo IFVs
- Additional FH-70 howitizers
- Additional M109-L howitzers
- Additional Aspide air defense systems
- 155mm artillery shells (purchased through contributions to EU funding)

 

Iskander

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Approved. The vote to bring up a bill to provide aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel received the required 60 votes in the US Senate.

1707415851399.png
 
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Relic

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Approved. The vote to bring up a bill to provide aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel received the required 60 votes in the US Senate.

View attachment 65444
There will now be an ammendment process, before the final vote in the Senate. At that point the bill will pass in the Senate, but still has to go to the House of Representatives for passage there, before the President Biden can sign it into law.

This isn't happening over night, for anyone wondering. We're still looking at several more weeks before it gets done in both houses. In the meantime, Ukraine, Europe and other partners, are going to have to do the heavy lifting. U.S. politics are always cumbersome, but it's coming.
 

Relic

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Strange, The reason is not clear while USA and Europe are supporting him.
Changes in military leadership are quite common, particularly over the course of a war. Russia has shuffled Generals around quite a bit as well. Historically, it's not uncommon for field generals to switch jobs consistently. Zaluzhniy will fill a new roll inside their Ukrainian Armed Forces and Syrskyi will get his shot to see what he can do.
 

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