Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[FiReFTW]

You think the war should stop? So do I, but not unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine.

The problem is this will never happen, so you are just extending it forever, pointless...

 

[FiReFTW]

Europe’s problems are not because of a lack of money. Europe is wealthy. It has plenty of money to fix its problems. What it lacks is the will to do it, and a coherent strategy.

Europe doesn’t have to choose between supporting Ukraine and fixing its problems. It can easily do both.

If Europe invested more in its own arms industry, it would create additional high paying jobs for qualified people like engineers and IT specialists, as well as blue collar jobs in manufacturing. The cost? Almost nothing.

You see, money is just a convention. Those billions of euros you keep hearing about, they are created out of thin air, by inventing a new credit that is added to already bloated balance sheets. It’s just accounting. Europe doesn’t need to take money from its population to finance Ukraine, because it is borrowing it.

You will ask, then why isn‘t Europe creating money to fix those other problems, like housing and healthcare? The thing very few people understand is that creating money out of thin air has different effects, depending on two major factors: who does it, and what does it do with it.

If a small country prints money to pay salaries and pensions, the immediate effect would be high inflation and currency devaluation. However, when Japan prints trillions of Yen just to rollover its debts, or when the US did repeated rounds of QE, you didn’t see the Yen or the dollar collapse, and neither rampant inflation. That’s because the money was not directed to consumption.

What creates inflation is money given to people in the form of wages, pensions or welfare payments. This is because that money immediately translates into additional demand for goods and services, raising the price. And when the additional demand boosts imports, it also devalues the currency.

But when the newly printed money is directed towards weapons production, the effect on inflation is negligible. Other than the jobs created in the sector, where some people earn higher wages and can spend more, the largest part of the spending goes itnto weapons production that end up blowing things in Russia.

The money just add-up in an accounting balance sheet, while Russia burns. Never in history a region/country had the opportunity to defeat one of its greatest adversaries by just adding numbers in a balance sheet without sacrificing anything else. Only people who are economically illiterate would pass such an opportunity.

The only cost for Europe if it decided to build more weapons would be a boost in the import of components, which could theoretically have a negative effect on the value of the Euro. But at this point, with so much Euro denominated debt hanging over Europe, and with such high wages keeping competitivity low, a little devaluation of the Euro would be more than welcome, especially if it came together with reindustrialization and technological research.



I come back to Europe every year, and I care a lot about it. And because I care about it, I don’t want my country to become Russia’s neighbour. I want Ukraine to recover its territory, as a buffer against the Russian threat. I want Transnistria to be disinfected, and the best case scenario would be for Russia to be expelled from Kaliningrad and for Belarus to be removed from Russia’s influence, and turned into a future EU member.

The more Russia is forced to retreat and more Eastern European countries join the EU, the better postioned my country becomes. I don’t want Romania to remain at NATO’s and EU’s periphery, with all the risks resulting from that. If Moldova and Ukraine would join, and Russia would be expelled from Crimea and the Donbass, Romania would suddenly be closer to Central Europe and further away from the periphery.

It’s easy for you to not care about the Russian threat, because Switzerland sits comfortably between friendly European countries. But for Romanians, Poles, Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians, Norwegians or Finns, the Russian threat is real, and we want Russia to be torn into smaller states no longer capable to threaten us. It is pure geopolitics.

Everything you say is completely false and you have no clue about the real world, its just wishful thinking of your part. I knew that already before, so im not suprised.

The biggest flaw of your whole argument is that those amazing enginners, IT specialists, manufacturing workers you say... they are a scarse resource, sure you can put them to develop weapons and military stuff... but how about you use all those people and all your FINANCIAL RESOURCES and put them into developing or building things like hospitals, arhitecture, roads etc etc.... where actual people actually HAVE SOMETHING out of that, instead of missiles, rockets and guns that are sitting in a warehouse until they expire... WEAPONS NEVER GENERATE FUTURE WEALTH, those are the most basic facts.

And weapons DO cause inflation... that money that goes to engineers, steelworkers and all those people, defense contractors... all those people go out into the world to buy groceries, gas, houses, electronics... meanwhile the supply of consumer goods didn't increase by 1 item, you have more money chasing the exact same amount of goods, thats inflation 1:1.

The only thing you are correct about is that Europe is wealthy and it does have the financial capacity to make strategic choices, but those choices should be to better EUROPE, not focus on building weapons and military equipment... all those things lead to inflation, higher national debt, redirection of all those talented people from other areas... material cost for production of those things... So no... having a bigger military and more weapons COST MONEY, it always has, so stop saying such nonsense.

 

[FiReFTW]

How is this hurting Europe exactly? I haven’t seen factories or refineries burning in Europe (other than Ukraine, of course). The war has actually created new factories in Europe, that did not exist before the war.

Europe is now moving towards having its own satellite and communications independence, building its own long range missiles, and improving its drone technology. There’s nothing bad about that.

And crude oil remains almost half the price it was in 2007, despite the wars in Russia and Iran.

I mean, almost twenty years have passed, and oil is cheaper. Everything else is twice as expensive, yet oil remains cheper. Poor Russians….

Uhm??? Higher prices? Money going into Ukraine that should be used to improve the situation here? Energy crisis? Housing crisis? Are you living in a fairytale world? Oh I forget you don't even live here so you just assume.

 

[Spitfire9]

Gennady Zyuganov, leader of Russia’s Communist Party and a State Duma deputy, has called for the immediate seizure of private bank deposits to address Russia’s budget deficit...

Russian Communist Leader Calls for Seizing Private Bank Deposits to Fill Budget Gaps

Gennady Zyuganov proposes confiscating 130 trillion rubles in citizen and business savings, signaling Moscow's deepening fiscal strain from war spending.

storychase.co

I have been saying for some time that the government might resort to seizing funds in bank accounts by converting them into government bonds. That prospect or freezing or seizing deposits in banks is looking more likely than ever.

Does this presage a run on the banks? Probably not - there are rules in force being used to delay money being taken out of accounts by account holders under the pretext that the account holder has to prove the funds deposited were not obtained illegally before being able to withdraw them.

 

[contricusc]

The biggest flaw of your whole argument is that those amazing enginners, IT specialists, manufacturing workers you say... they are a scarse resource, sure you can put them to develop weapons and military stuff... but how about you use all those people and all your FINANCIAL RESOURCES and put them into developing or building things like hospitals, arhitecture, roads etc etc.... where actual people actually HAVE SOMETHING out of that, instead of missiles, rockets and guns that are sitting in a warehouse until they expire... WEAPONS NEVER GENERATE FUTURE WEALTH, those are the most basic facts.

The US has historically invested the most in developing weapons, in both terms of money and human capital (engineers, IT specialists, etc). The results speak for themselves. They lead in civilian technology as well, because what was initially developed for military purposes often ended up serving the civilian infrastructure. Just think of GPS as a starter, and all the resulting applications of it.

I’m not saying that Europe should focus exclusively on defense, but a strong defense sector and cutting edge military technology is a prerequisite for being a global power. You can’t replacec a powerful military with roads and hospitals, because you end up being at the mercy of those who built their armies.

If Ukraine was not strong enough to resists Russia, Europe would have been in a very bad situation now, because of people like you, who think that you can resist imperial powers by having ”free” healthcare and socialized housing.

A strong military is a necessity for a major economic bloc like the EU. Otherwise, it remains dependent on the US, with all the negative consequences resulting from that.

And weapons DO cause inflation... that money that goes to engineers, steelworkers and all those people, defense contractors... all those people go out into the world to buy groceries, gas, houses, electronics... meanwhile the supply of consumer goods didn't increase by 1 item, you have more money chasing the exact same amount of goods, thats inflation 1:1.

I already acknowledged that in my previous post. But since spending on weapons doesn’t go entirely into consumption, the effect on inflation is much smaller compared to the social spending that eats the vast majority of European budgets.

So no... having a bigger military and more weapons COST MONEY, it always has, so stop saying such nonsense.

It costs money, but the benefits outweigh the costs, especially when you are surrounded by two hostile powers (Russia and the US).

Europe does not have the luxury to ignore its defense, when you have Russia to the East wanting Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltics, etc., and the US to the West wanting Greenland, Iceland and who knows what else.

 

[contricusc]

Uhm??? Higher prices? Money going into Ukraine that should be used to improve the situation here? Energy crisis? Housing crisis? Are you living in a fairytale world? Oh I forget you don't even live here so you just assume.

What you’re mentioning has nothing to do with helping Ukraine and with a lack of money. It’s all related to bad strategic decisions.

Energy crisis? That’s self inflicted. Germany shutting down nuclear energy, lack of investment in North Sea oil because of an obsession with CO2 emissions and eco madness, windfall taxes on energy companies whenever they make a bigger profit (which results in less domestic investment), etc..

The constant war on local oil companies, while continuing to import oil and gas from Russia, is what brought Europe into this energy crisis you mentioned. And it is all the result of Russian interference into European politics through corrupt politicians (Schroder, Merkel) and ”green” NGOs pushing for the destruction of Europe’s energy companies. Russia has done everything it could to sabotage Europe’s energy indeoendence, to make it dependent on Russia imports. They did it because they wanted Europe to be afraid to interfere when they were going to invade Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltics, because of this vulnerability.

Russia is Europe’s enemy. It must be destroyed.

Housing crisis? That is the result of the lack of building permits coupled with the artificial influx of migrants. It is intentionally engineered in order to increase house prices and enrich landlords. Just like with energy, it is a self inflicted wound, that can be easily fixed, and it doesn’t require money to do it. Just smart policies.

European governments already have a lot of money on their hands. They command a huge percentage of GDP, more than anywhere else in the world. It is a disgrace that European militaries were caught off guard by Russia, considering the disproportionate amount of money that European governments have at their disposal compared to the rest of the world.

Europe needs to allocate more money to defense, and cut on social spending.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian FPV strikes against Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment. Footage of Russian FPV drones in use in combat in Ukraine and the Donbas. The Russian FPV drones used in the battles include the Ovod, VT-40, Knyaz Vandal Novgorodsky, Upyr, Boomerang, and other models, including those controlled via fiber optic cable. The exact filming location is not disclosed. A June video shows drone strikes against various Ukrainian military equipment. The video also shows drone strikes against a Ukrainian T-64 tank, an M1224 MaxxPro armored personnel carrier, a Humvee, and other vehicles.

 

[Relic]

NATO countries (USA excluded) are expected to jointly announce a new $75 Billion usd military armament package for Ukraine during their July 7th-8th meeting in Ankara, Turkey . They will also pledge to match or surpass that support in 2027. The announcement is expected to be part of an even larger commitment to significantly ramp up NATO arms production to meet the new 3.5% of GDP target that has been agreed upon.

The $80 Billion package for Ukraine will be over and above the European Union's $105 Billion package that was recently announced. The new package will focus strictly on armament and ramoing up production of everything from drones to air defense missiles, long range artillery shells and standoff strike weapons.

With Ukraine back on the front foot in many areas of the front, NATO is finally seeing an opportunity to use their collective industrial power to out Russia is a really bad place.

NATO allies to pledge billions in arms deals, Ukraine aid at Ankara summit

They are also considering references to the U.S. war in Iran as part of the draft summit declaration, NATO diplomats told POLITICO.

www.politico.eu

 

[Spitfire9]

Crimea is becoming untenable. It is now being starved of supplies. The 3 ferries being used to ship supplies from Russia via the Kerch crossing were reputedly put out of action or destroyed. The Kerch bridge has been weakened. Trains can no longer use it. The main road from the north running into Crimea is subject to attack by Ukrainian drones.

Sales of fuel to the public have been halted in Crimea. There are reports of marooned Russian tourists who arrived by car. There are reports of rolling power cuts. There are reports of shops starting to limit the amount of food that can be bought. There are reports of 80% of holiday bookings being cancelled. Tourism is a major industry in Crimea.

Whoever occupies Crimea will be in the same weak position so long as the war lasts: both Ukraine and Russia can lay siege to the peninsula. It seems probable to me that it is destined to become a no man's land for the foreseeable future.

 

[Relic]

Crimea is becoming untenable. It is now being starved of supplies. The 3 ferries being used to ship supplies from Russia via the Kerch crossing were reputedly put out of action or destroyed. The Kerch bridge has been weakened. Trains can no longer use it. The main road from the north running into Crimea is subject to attack by Ukrainian drones.

Sales of fuel to the public have been halted in Crimea. There are reports of marooned Russian tourists who arrived by car. There are reports of rolling power cuts. There are reports of shops starting to limit the amount of food that can be bought. There are reports of 80% of holiday bookings being cancelled. Tourism is a major industry in Crimea.

Whoever occupies Crimea will be in the same weak position so long as the war lasts: both Ukraine and Russia can lay siege to the peninsula. It seems probable to me that it is destined to become a no man's land for the foreseeable future.

Russia is now facing a very similar problem that Ukraine has been dealing with for a while. They are running out of interceptor missiles for their S-400, S-300, Pantsir, BUK, etc air defense systems. They're not yet critically low, but with Ukraine (and their allies) now able to produce thousands of long range attack drones each month, the math is not adding up for Russia in terms of their ability to produce interceptors. As a result they've been frantically attempting to find cheaper methods of air defense. While these actions have been somewhat effective in places like Moscow, Crimea is incredibly exposed and increasingly difficult to resupply. Ukraine is routinely destroying the infrastructure that makes living there untenable, in an attempt to simply encourage Russians to drive back across the Kerch bridge and stay in mainland Russia. The Russians do not have adequate air defense assets in Crimea and they lose a lot of them when they move them into position. As long as Ukraine keeps up the pressure from the airstrikes, it's going to be hard for Russia to resupply Crimea in any meaningful way.

Fuel infrastructure has been the first target and their is now a fuel crisis on the peninsula. The next step is targeting electricity and heat generating assets, to ensure Crimea is a hellish place to live ahead of winter... Today they actively declared a "State of Emergency" in Crimea because conditions are worsening. It's time for Ukraine to crank up the strikes even further. Anything of infrastructural value has to be destroyed, sadly.

 

[Relic]

There is currently a 22km traffic jam of cars backed up at the Kerch bridge. It's comprised of more than 2500 vehicles. Russians fleeing Crimea en masse for mainland Russia as the Russian military proves incapable of defending the territory.

Keep up the pressure. Smash 200-400 drones each night into Russia's infrastructure in Crimea. Destroy all fuel, hydro, heating sources, cell towers etc, making it miserable for the people to live there and continue to ravage any military assets they try to send to reinforce the Peninsula. If you can't take it back in the short term by pushing their military out, make it a deplorable place for their civilians to try to live and force them to leave.

 

[contricusc]

The people of Crimea voted to join Russia for higher pensions. I wonder if they regret their decision now…

 

[Spitfire9]

Clearly a large number of people want to leave Crimea. I imagine that many Russians who went there on holiday with children were unaware of the situation there when they got in their cars and drove away from their homes in Russia. I presume that the Russian government preferred not to warm them they would be taking their children into an active war zone. That would not have fitted the official narrative. I imagine that responsible parents want to get their children out of danger as fast as possible.

If Ukraine intensifies attacks on Crimea to make as many Russian tourists as possible flee back to their homes in Russia with horror stories of conditions in Crimea, that will be a very good thing. Those tourists' eye witness accounts will help the gullible people back home to question the veracity of what they see and hear on state-controlled TV.

Always assuming they can find the fuel to get back home...

 

[Spitfire9]

Ukraine Just Launched One of the Biggest Strike of the War — and Set Off a 20-Mile Traffic Jam of Russians Fleeing Crimea

Ukraine opened its 40-day campaign with one of the largest strikes of the war — 660 drones across a dozen regions — triggering a 20-mile line of Russians fleeing Crimea.

nationalsecurityjournal.org

PS
State of emergency declared in Sevastopol. Russian-occupied Crimea appears to be rapidly descending into a state of chaos or as Putin would probably put it, experiencing temporary problems.

 

[Spitfire9]

Crimea has a population of around 2.4 million. Several hundred thousand Russians settled in Crimea after the Russian annexation in 2014.

It looks probable that life in Crimea, already very difficult, will become extremely difficult in coming months. Intense problems with transport by car already exist. Bus and train transport may follow down the same path.

Ukraine military action will probably cut supplies into Crimea to such an extent that supply of everyday consumer goods from outside Crimea will fall so far short of the minimum required that living standards will fall dramatically.

Will the Russian settlers stay or will they go back to Russia? Of those of military age who do return to Russia leaving their properties in Crimea, how many will be prepared to sign up to fight in the war?

As for the local population who remain, what arrangements can be made to get food to them? I imagine that people supporting Russian occupation will be a lot less hungry than people who do not.

 

[Relic]

Russia's largest "remaining" fuel storage site received a visit from Ukraine... Nightly waves of 300-400 strike drones are completely overwhelming Russian air defense and Ukraine is decimating Russian energy infrastructure.

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

‼️💥 Slavyansk-on-Kuban. Consequences of the attack by long-range UAVs of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the refinery, - Exilenova

bsky.app

 

[Soldier30]

The first footage of the Russian Geran-5 kamikaze drone being used in Ukraine. The video shows a Russian Geran-5 drone striking a Ukrainian warehouse in the Kholodnohirsky district of Kharkiv.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian FPV drones and Geran-2 kamikaze drones have begun actively attacking Ukrainian fuel and energy infrastructure. The video shows drone strikes on Ukrainian gas stations and fuel tankers. The exact location of the footage is not disclosed. The strikes on fuel infrastructure have led to fuel shortages in Ukraine's frontline territories. Fuel shortages have also emerged in some regions of Russia.

 

[Relic]

Two new major military aid / purchase announcements today for Ukraine.

Sweden and Ukraine have officially signed an agreement for 16 new Gripen-E model fighter jets at the cost of $2.54 Billion usd. The package will include maintenance, training, spare parts and armament, including Meteor long range air-to-air missiles. Meanwhile, Sweden clarified that 16 additional Gripen-C/D model fighter jets will be transfered to Ukraine at the beginning of 2027. Pilot training has been underway for some time and the initial pilots will be be ready for combat missions by then. In total, 32 fighter aircraft being added to Ukraine's inventory over the next couple years.

Meanwhile, Denmark announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today valued at $672 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- Long range artillery shells
- Various types of ammunition
- Equipment
- Training
- $200 million usd for through the "Danish model" for the domestic production of drones and Bohdana howitzers in Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-signs-254-billion-gripen-fighter-jet-deal-with-ukraine-2026-06-30/

Denmark announces $670 million defense aid package for Ukraine

About 1.3 billion Danish kroner ($200 million) have been allocated to the so-called "Danish model," a mechanism under which a partner country provides direct funding to Ukrainian arms manufacturers.

www.yahoo.com

https://www.reuters.com/world/denmark-launches-672-million-military-aid-package-ukraine-2026-06-30/

 

[Relic]

Today the European Union released a $4.5 Billion usd tranche of loan money to Ukraine, part of the $105 Billion usd loan agreed to earlier this spring.

The money can only be used for the domestic production and purchase of drones and EU watchdogs monitored what it's being spent on as part of the agreement to guard against corruption.

This is absolutely massive for Ukraine. The Ukrainians + their Allies have the capacity build and strike Russia with between 300-500 mid range and long range strike drones and missiles daily, which is absolutely saturating Russian air defense and forcing Russia to burn through interceptor missiles at a rate that far outstrips their production capacity. This can continue in relative perpetuity as long as funding continues to be robust. Ukraine would like to increase that daily production output of medium and long range drones to into the 500-700 unit per day range to ramp up the pressure on Russia, however, estimates suggest that could cost $1.5-$2.0 Billion usd per month, a staggering $18-24 Billion usd per year. While Ukraine has that money in the form of the multi-year loan from the EU and is expecting another substantial commitment from NATO during their Ankara summit on July 6th-7th, it means significant funding would have to be re-located from other areas of the military.