Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Jagdflieger

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I have no problems providing dates or sources. thats not lots here you can see information on who they have shelled as well with videos and pictures of the regions







Results: cant even provide a source while a ukrainian military map keeps going red and red.

"A day without losing territory is a day wasted " - Comedy king zelensky

or have headlines that say Game changing western weapons changes the game by making Ukranian troops advance in reverse towards kiev.

But as of now wake me up when there will be more reports on ukraine territorial grabs. right now of course its nothing but Russians gaining territory and I am hearing that they are immediately still pushing the momentum forward.


This is one of the situational maps that I am also using - just keep in mind (likely you know) that this map shows Russian progress in general with a 24h+ delay.
 

Mailman

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i don't like that style in your above post at all.
Not a single substantiated argument to support your "conviction" in regards to the military situation - but 4 sentences of "clowning" statements.

If you don't know how to defend your assessment on the military situation in Ukraine - then just write: I don't agree
And spare me with "clowning" statements.
Good, then I made my point clear enough. This is me summarizing somebody's late posts with four sentences. If I may add, it is not a very smart move to start to downgrade the list of Ukrainian aerial equipment by saying "this is just empty" and again without much explanation. Really? So could we use better arguments than "this is a military argument" or smth? The air superiority is going to bring a win to Russia because of (and here is the place for substantial justification, ok?).

As said, both sides cannot get aerial control over the enemy's territory in current state of war, except perhaps for UAV-s. What now? War over? Definitely not. What could be other reasons which might affect the outcome of the war? Is there any? Probably is, so let's be open and try to see what could bring a change into this stalemate.

Ukrainians managed to stop the first wave of Russian intervention, neutralize their armored vehicles, and oh boy, how nicely they blow up! So no quick advancements, even no good communication between the parts of the Russian army. Azart's communication system was a joke because it depended on 4G mobile communication, blown up by Russians themselves. Yeah, who could come up with this?

Ukrainians managed to neutralize the aerial superiority of the Russians, also the Black sea fleet, and even free Snake island. So much about the naval landing operation below Odesa. What has not been neutralized effectively is 1) artillery fire (work in progress), 2) surplus of Russian soldiers (which will wear off at some point) 3) radio warfare, where Russians are slowly but steadily advancing. We do not hear those tragic phone calls anymore, made by Russian conscripts back to their mothers, right? Russians managed to neutralize TB-s, as seems to me. Not many successful hits are evident via videos anymore. Well, the Armenian-Azerbaidzan conflict was kind of eye-opening and gave some time to work on that problem in advance.

The rest is usual. I actually think that the corruption level in both countries is approximately the same. Perhaps China will match, for the rest of us it is cosmic. So if we talk about numbers in any warfare equipment list regarding U. and R., these are comparable by "emptiness". Considering U.'s advance in the military field since 2014, I would say this is in favor of Ukraine.

Russia is built on theft, more or less. Access to cheap resources has given them a false understanding of their real capabilities. You pump the oil and you sell it, how hard it can be, right? Russian elite is historically entitled to steal from the state and they steal an unimaginable lot. The only problem is- there is still not enough for everybody to steal. So the smaller players do take what they can and where they can. Those NZ tanks in Russian polygons have been standing for decades and this is high-level shit for stealing. Try to monitor those all year without allowing some smart handyman to take advantage. Unfortunately, the amount of R. tanks (approx. 10000) is high enough to find some usable specimens and some of those have to stay in reserve. Mostly they lack trucks for transport, as I hear.

The economy is in really bad shape in Russia. They like to brag about the strengthening of the rouble, but let's be honest: who wants to buy roubles these days? Without trade, it is just a number on the wall. Without western suppliers, Russia cannot produce normal cars, so they sell Lada cars with a warning that they should not cross the borders. The theft of airplanes was done on an epic scale, so they estimate to run stolen western planes for 3...4 more years. Lately, they failed to pay for foreign depths, but this is more an illusion rather than a real problem. West is feeding them with dollars and euros for the gas and oils in billions.

All in all, Russia is not doing so badly at all. Saying so, the price they are paying is enormous. Not the elite, these guys have been preparing for this for years. Ordinary people have to pay for this, but they do not know it yet. The slowdown of the Russian economy has only started and this is a big country. Added to the fact that most Russians have not experienced anything better in their life, they are happier because those damn rich ones have to suffer too. So somehow this Colosseum is standing, but I would not put my bets on that.

Ukrainians on the contrary have the support of the whole world, military and financial ones. Russia has shown itself so dangerous and continues to do so, having real means for world destruction. Russia has to be stopped in Ukraine, otherwise, the whole world order is turned upside down. Something Russia and China seems aiming for, this makes them allies. So far. The rest of the west should help Ukraine if they do not want to die as Ukrainians do.

So this is Russia versus the whole world situation. Honestly, I do not see many chances for Russia.
 

chibiyabi

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since the beginning until now, this is liliput vs giant or david vs goliath war, unfortunately the giant so stupid because he must revise his objective 3 times, loose dozens of high ranking officers, loose it prestigious warship symbol by a R & D level land base AShM, and its so called second best armed forces of the world. and now his supporters says this war is equal, man a man vis a vis, so naif.
 

Jagdflieger

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Good, then I made my point clear enough. This is me summarizing somebody's late posts with four sentences. If I may add, it is not a very smart move to start to downgrade the list of Ukrainian aerial equipment by saying "this is just empty" and again without much explanation. Really? So could we use better arguments than "this is a military argument" or smth? The air superiority is going to bring a win to Russia because of (and here is the place for substantial justification, ok?).

As said, both sides cannot get aerial control over the enemy's territory in current state of war, except perhaps for UAV-s. What now? War over? Definitely not. What could be other reasons which might affect the outcome of the war? Is there any? Probably is, so let's be open and try to see what could bring a change into this stalemate.

Ukrainians managed to stop the first wave of Russian intervention, neutralize their armored vehicles, and oh boy, how nicely they blow up! So no quick advancements, even no good communication between the parts of the Russian army. Azart's communication system was a joke because it depended on 4G mobile communication, blown up by Russians themselves. Yeah, who could come up with this?

Ukrainians managed to neutralize the aerial superiority of the Russians, also the Black sea fleet, and even free Snake island. So much about the naval landing operation below Odesa. What has not been neutralized effectively is 1) artillery fire (work in progress), 2) surplus of Russian soldiers (which will wear off at some point) 3) radio warfare, where Russians are slowly but steadily advancing. We do not hear those tragic phone calls anymore, made by Russian conscripts back to their mothers, right? Russians managed to neutralize TB-s, as seems to me. Not many successful hits are evident via videos anymore. Well, the Armenian-Azerbaidzan conflict was kind of eye-opening and gave some time to work on that problem in advance.

The rest is usual. I actually think that the corruption level in both countries is approximately the same. Perhaps China will match, for the rest of us it is cosmic. So if we talk about numbers in any warfare equipment list regarding U. and R., these are comparable by "emptiness". Considering U.'s advance in the military field since 2014, I would say this is in favor of Ukraine.

Russia is built on theft, more or less. Access to cheap resources has given them a false understanding of their real capabilities. You pump the oil and you sell it, how hard it can be, right? Russian elite is historically entitled to steal from the state and they steal an unimaginable lot. The only problem is- there is still not enough for everybody to steal. So the smaller players do take what they can and where they can. Those NZ tanks in Russian polygons have been standing for decades and this is high-level shit for stealing. Try to monitor those all year without allowing some smart handyman to take advantage. Unfortunately, the amount of R. tanks (approx. 10000) is high enough to find some usable specimens and some of those have to stay in reserve. Mostly they lack trucks for transport, as I hear.

The economy is in really bad shape in Russia. They like to brag about the strengthening of the rouble, but let's be honest: who wants to buy roubles these days? Without trade, it is just a number on the wall. Without western suppliers, Russia cannot produce normal cars, so they sell Lada cars with a warning that they should not cross the borders. The theft of airplanes was done on an epic scale, so they estimate to run stolen western planes for 3...4 more years. Lately, they failed to pay for foreign depths, but this is more an illusion rather than a real problem. West is feeding them with dollars and euros for the gas and oils in billions.

All in all, Russia is not doing so badly at all. Saying so, the price they are paying is enormous. Not the elite, these guys have been preparing for this for years. Ordinary people have to pay for this, but they do not know it yet. The slowdown of the Russian economy has only started and this is a big country. Added to the fact that most Russians have not experienced anything better in their life, they are happier because those damn rich ones have to suffer too. So somehow this Colosseum is standing, but I would not put my bets on that.

Ukrainians on the contrary have the support of the whole world, military and financial ones. Russia has shown itself so dangerous and continues to do so, having real means for world destruction. Russia has to be stopped in Ukraine, otherwise, the whole world order is turned upside down. Something Russia and China seems aiming for, this makes them allies. So far. The rest of the west should help Ukraine if they do not want to die as Ukrainians do.

So this is Russia versus the whole world situation. Honestly, I do not see many chances for Russia.
I never stated that this air-force list of yours was empty

I stated that the figures shown for fighter/strike aircraft is an inventory list before the war.
An inventory list is subjected towards actual readiness of aircraft and available ones. The latter is already reduced due to Ukrainian losses.
I had also stated that the present conservative estimate of Ukraine's Air-force is towards 35-45 fighter/strike aircraft.

if your personal conviction towards Russia in regards to loosing this war is based on - issues such as Theft, tragic phone calls, their economy being in real bad shape, can't produce normal cars, theft on airplanes, no western suppliers, Ukraine being supported by the whole world and Russia having abandoned Snake island - Russia and China wanting to turn the whole world order upside down - okay - that is your personal emotional opinion, that is simply not reflected in the actual military situation on the ground since May 2022.

As I had forwarded to someone else already - let's see Ukraine's chances of victory by October.
 

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Mailman

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I never stated that this air-force list of yours was empty

I stated that the figures shown for fighter/strike aircraft is an inventory list before the war.
An inventory list is subjected towards actual readiness of aircraft and available ones. The latter is already reduced due to Ukrainian losses.
I had also stated that the present conservative estimate of Ukraine's Air-force is towards 35-45 fighter/strike aircraft.

if your personal conviction towards Russia in regards to loosing this war is based on - issues such as Theft, tragic phone calls, their economy being in real bad shape, can't produce normal cars, theft on airplanes, no western suppliers, Ukraine being supported by the whole world and Russia having abandoned Snake island - Russia and China wanting to turn the whole world order upside down - okay - that is your personal emotional opinion, that is simply not reflected in the actual military situation on the ground since May 2022.

As I had forwarded to someone else already - let's see Ukraine's chances of victory by October.
And here it comes again: the allmighty military argument. Please explain, what the hell it is and how this supports your argumentation?

If one wants to be politically correct in Russian and perhaps Chinese way, then it is a special operation. Some sort of limited affair not concerning wider society in U. And in R. In reality it is something more, but not limited to military effort. Western response consist primarily economic sanctions and only partially deliverinh weapons. How one can keep those issues isolated, stating though it has nothing to do with the war? This is a huge simplification at least.
 

Jagdflieger

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.... How one can keep those issues isolated, stating though it has nothing to do with the war? This is a huge simplification at least......
Who said, stated that?
I had written:
....that is your personal emotional opinion, that is simply not reflected in the actual military situation on the ground since May 2022
 

Mailman

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Who said, stated that?
I had written:
....that is your personal emotional opinion, that is simply not reflected in the actual military situation on the ground since May 2022
Right. Jagdflieger just knows because that is simply not reflected in the actual military situation. Not just the military situation, but also the reflection is erroneous, based on my personal emotional opinion. I might be emotional, this is not forbidden. Yes, they are my own personal opinions indeed. Can Jagdflieger say the same?

How and why my personal opinions do not reflect the actual military situation, please explain. Anything?
 

Jagdflieger

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Right. Jagdflieger just knows because that is simply not reflected in the actual military situation.
Bingo - now you finally understood.

Oh and to make the contradiction of the "comedian" in Kiev and his Intel chief more clear to you;

Russia is seeking to completely destroy Ukraine. The Kremlin is not going to limit itself to capturing Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine, said this in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Ukrinform reports.

And the "comedian" in his daily speeches: we will win this war - we will free all of Ukraine, Russia will never win that war.

Do you get the "contradiction"?
One is a realistic person basing his judgement onto the military situation and intel - and the other one is an emotional, personal opinionated propagandist.
 
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Results: cant even provide a source while a ukrainian military map keeps going red and red.
I provided u the official Russian MOD map. Today Russia controls much less territories than in late march.

More over, Putin claimed that they don't plan to occupy Ukraines terrotories.

Their official goals were:

1) Move NATO back to the west.
2) Demilitarize Ukraine.
3) Denazification of Ukraine (translation: install pro-Russian puppet government).

Results:

1) NATO moved further to east, adding two strong members.
2) Ukraine army became much stronger.
3) Ukraine became more anti Russian than ever.

You are boasting that they managed to captured some ruins in 3 months of combat. Russia has millions of square km2 of of empty territories that no one is using. In same time Russia population is shrinking at rate 2,000 a day! Yet you decided to start war in order to capture some ruins? Are u serious?
 

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Doesn't matter who's map you use to justify or point out something, if that map is utterly wrong

Mariupol, it's entire northern and eastern territory wasn't surrounded before 20th of March = see the map I had posted earlier on.
Any other situational map from 3rd of March till end of March will show that as well (3000km2) blue dot?
The Izium to Svatove to Hirske around 4000km2 wasn't occupied by Russia before end of March.
The Popasna Buldge in the meantime is around 1000km2 - that ain't just a blue dot
Russian troops declared Kershon "liberated" on 3rd of March and then went on to occupy a further 1400km2 to it's north-east and south west. (still holding those areas) and 1400km2 isn't a blue dot either.

So Russia managed to occupy and hold from mid March until today around 8000-9000km2 - and not a blue patch that accounts for around 1000km2.
No your map totally wrong. Here Urkainian live ua map showing situation on 19 march:

342343re.JPG


As u see it shows similar situation to Russian MOD map.
 

UkroTurk

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On the Zaporozhye direction HIMARS destroy the enemy

1656946888838.png

"HIMARS combat work. Zaporizhzhya direction. Well, quickly, precisely, ", says the General Staff in a statement.
1656946966768.png

1656947166735.png

 

Jagdflieger

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No your map totally wrong. Here Urkainian live ua map showing situation on 19 march:

View attachment 45820

As u see it shows similar situation to Russian MOD map.
The map I forwarded is dated 3rd of March - the one you show now is dated 19th of March.

And were your 19th March map writes Sloviansk - half of this area plus the entire Izium area up to Kharkiv and everything south-west of Kherson is e.g. today red - aka in contra to the territory your initial map showing blue.
See today's map 4th of July.
 

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Jagdflieger

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On the Zaporozhye direction HIMARS destroy the enemy

View attachment 45821
"HIMARS combat work. Zaporizhzhya direction. Well, quickly, precisely, ", says the General Staff in a statement.
View attachment 45822
View attachment 45823
if they keep firing from totally unconcealed positions (likely from the M-18 road) - well let's see how long these MLRS are going to be usable.
 

Gary

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On the Zaporozhye direction HIMARS destroy the enemy

View attachment 45821
"HIMARS combat work. Zaporizhzhya direction. Well, quickly, precisely, ", says the General Staff in a statement.
View attachment 45822
View attachment 45823
Now that Ukraine has steady supply of GMLRS for HIMARS, they could spend more of their Tochka elsewhere.

Too bad their Vilkhas are not ready in time for action.
 

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if they keep firing from totally unconcealed positions (likely from the M-18 road) - well let's see how long these MLRS are going to be usable.
Once u fire MLRS it exposes itself dosens kms around, so there is no point to conceal its position. What matters is fast relocation after firing.
 

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Russian progress from 7 april to 3rd May:

View attachment 43499 View attachment 43500

If there will be no change Russians will take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in week or two - first major victory for Russians since the beginning of "second phase"
It took Russians 2 months instead of 1 week or 2. I overestimated Russians.
 

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