Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Deliorman]

I wonder how Russia would be able to pay replenishing its weapons stock after the war, with sanctions wrecking it's economy and starved from semiconductors supply.

That is the funniest thing for me too. This time Putin miscalculated the whole situation sooooooo bad.

First about his expectation about Ukraine- he thought that his forces will be met as liberators by the locals and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lay down their weapons without even firing a bullet. He thought that Ukraine's leadership will probably flee and a puppet will be put in Kyiv easily. What we saw is the complete opposite.

Second: he expected that the EU, NATO and the West will again do nothing but empty talk and declarations against his aggression. After what he did in Georgia, Crimea, East Ukraine and Syria he only saw the West as unwilling to punish him for his deeds. He was seeing how the EU is being lead by weak, soft and incapable leaders, how his pawns in the far-left and the far-right are ready to protect Kremlin interests. Putin underestimated his opponents here too. After decades we see Germans re-arming again, whole of Europe being united, NATO allies coordinating and expanding their partnership. Putin's whole strategy against the West/NATO crumbles very fast.

Third: Putin overestimated the strength of his Armed forces way too much. Yeah, he still has much more weapons than most countries in the world and enough firepower to overwhelm almost any opponent but Russian tactics, logistics, rampant corruption and tech are stuck in the 80s and this gets more and more visible with every passing day. When Russian access to Western technologies is being cut off completely this will make the decay of their Armed forces even worse.

Fourth: Russia HAD a very big reserve amounting to over 650 billion dollars. They have huge natural reserves, enough land and water to feed billions of people. Still the Russian economy is weak and the worst for it haven't even started yet as much of the sanctions against their economy haven't even been applied yet. The effects of this whole isolation will be felt in the coming weeks and months. The stock exchanges in Russia haven't been opened for a week and already most of their big banks and companies are basically bankrupt. Western companies operating in Russia are already leaving the country. The ruble collapses even though the Central bank of Russia does everything to support it. The foreign reserves of the CB or what is not frozen already will melt eventually.

The only thing the West needs to do now is too keep the supply of weaponry, fuel, food and medicines to Ukraine going while more and more sanctions keep kicking in. Ukraine has the potential to be Russia's absolute end and a humiliation for the centuries. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a walk in the park compared to what Ukraine will be even if it falls under Russian occupation.

 

[tracer]

That is the funniest thing for me too. This time Putin miscalculated the whole situation sooooooo bad.

First about his expectation about Ukraine- he thought that his forces will be met as liberators by the locals and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lay down their weapons without even firing a bullet. He thought that Ukraine's leadership will probably flee and a puppet will be put in Kyiv easily. What we saw is the complete opposite.

Second: he expected that the EU, NATO and the West will again do nothing but empty talk and declarations against his aggression. After what he did in Georgia, Crimea, East Ukraine and Syria he only saw the West as unwilling to punish him for his deeds. He was seeing how the EU is being lead by weak, soft and incapable leaders, how his pawns in the far-left and the far-right are ready to protect Kremlin interests. Putin underestimated his opponents here too. After decades we see Germans re-arming again, whole of Europe being united, NATO allies coordinating and expanding their partnership. Putin's whole strategy against the West/NATO crumbles very fast.

Third: Putin overestimated the strength of his Armed forces way too much. Yeah, he still has much more weapons than most countries in the world and enough firepower to overwhelm almost any opponent but Russian tactics, logistics, rampant corruption and tech are stuck in the 80s and this gets more and more visible with every passing day. When Russian access to Western technologies is being cut off completely this will make the decay of their Armed forces even worse.

Fourth: Russia HAD a very big reserve amounting to over 650 billion dollars. They have huge natural reserves, enough land and water to feed billions of people. Still the Russian economy is weak and the worst for it haven't even started yet as much of the sanctions against their economy haven't even been applied yet. The effects of this whole isolation will be felt in the coming weeks and months. The stock exchanges in Russia haven't been opened for a week and already most of their big banks and companies are basically bankrupt. Western companies operating in Russia are already leaving the country. The ruble collapses even though the Central bank of Russia does everything to support it. The foreign reserves of the CB or what is not frozen already will melt eventually.

The only thing the West needs to do now is too keep the supply of weaponry, fuel, food and medicines to Ukraine going while more and more sanctions keep kicking in. Ukraine has the potential to be Russia's absolute end and a humiliation for the centuries.

Totally agree with that analysis.

Rearming is going to be a huge issue for russia, as well as continuing their modernisation program. Someone on here noted before that optics for their drones and aircraft are manufactured abroad as well. I doubt that China would want to supply russia with pirated versions of western chips either, one thing to supply the internal market, but they are reliant on keeping a somewhat amicable relationship with the west and the gains compared to the risks are small.

Also, the chips they make themselves are manufactured on an old 28nm process, so they draw more power, they get hotter and they are huge, really not conducive to fitting them inside comparatively small things such as missiles and drones.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500055756149772289

It's a Russian jet downed. Pilot captured

That aircraft must've been flying heavy!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNFH7LaXoAIY8L_?format=jpg&name=orig

 

[Agha Sher]

You're welcome

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500073520516186114

 

[Vergennes]

lmao

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500072771149348866

 

[McCool]

thought this place would be as lively as sino/india defense net but considering this boards geopolitical views of their beliefs getting raped i see why there are no such posts.

Talking about rape, we're seeing daily, the myth of overhyped Russian military capability getting raped by some Ukrainian farmers. Wonder why you're being more and more silent since you posted this.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500075948871462915

 

[Vergennes]

Indeed the aircraft downed was a su34

@Agha Sher

 

[McCool]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500068909495603203

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500071959945793548

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500068909495603203

Have you ever seen a Russian AF pilot that wasn't old and physically unfit ?

 

[Hexciter]

Russian airlines, Aeroflot will no longer operate International flights from March 8th, 2022.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500080002905387008

 

[Manomed]

Indeed the aircraft downed was a su34

View attachment 40565
View attachment 40564

@Agha Sher

they are flying low because they don't have precise munitions and also they are scared of AD systems what a great army. Blackjack is probably crying out loud he was defending su series here like It was his parents lmao.

 

[Relic]

Russian airlines, Aeroflot will no longer operate International flights from March 8th, 2022.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500080002905387008

Good. Let the burden fall on the Russian taxpayer to prop up the airline. The more isolated the average Russian feels, the quicker they'll get sick of this war.

Putin has set his people back 50-60 years in terms of their ability to interact with the free world.

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500071959945793548

Ukraine: Denis Kireev, who was in the ceasefire negotiations delegation, was executed on the charge of treason after a 1-hour trial.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500081915541524485

 

[Manomed]

thought this place would be as lively as sino/india defense net but considering this boards geopolitical views of their beliefs getting raped i see why there are no such posts.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496729262572937216

yes your air force can't even do sead or dead. TurAF would steam roll your outdated sukhois in syria with Amraams

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500085022237278213

 

[Van Kravchenko]

Russian VDV...

View attachment 40516
View attachment 40515
View attachment 40514

the force that EU feared the most falter and crumbled in unprepared for war yet not fully equipped nation.

yes your air force can't even do sead or dead. TurAF would steam roll your outdated sukhois in syria with Amraams

: falter and crumble in
: start thinking to wipe out all Russian from heighboring nations.

 

[Deliorman]

Rearming is going to be a huge issue for russia, as well as continuing their modernisation program. Someone on here noted before that optics for their drones and aircraft are manufactured abroad as well. I doubt that China would want to supply russia with pirated versions of western chips either, one thing to supply the internal market, but they are reliant on keeping a somewhat amicable relationship with the west and the gains compared to the risks are small.

Also, the chips they make themselves are manufactured on an old 28nm process, so they draw more power, they get hotter and they are huge, really not conducive to fitting them inside comparatively small things such as missiles and drones.

Many people who have no idea about trade, history and geopolitics are ready to jump on the Russia- China Alliance train way too fast. The same people who were calling BRICS the end of Western dominance in everything from economy to defense are now thinking that China will support Russia on 100% or something which is a joke.

They don't understand that no matter what China has VASTLY bigger interest in keeping their economic relationship with the West than it does with deepening the ties with Russia. The Chinese are a mercantile nation and to them trade and sweet USD and Euros are much more precious than the Putin ambitions to create an anti- Western block or something. Of course that China will use Russia to strengthen their positions in the world but it will never ever sacrifice itself for the sake of Putin. Beijing will never ever sacrifice a trillion dollars worth of exports to the Western block for Russia. At the same time China will gladly buy Russian resources on preferential prices they chose. As we saw already even if China is neutral and not joining any sanctions on Russia many of their financial institutions who work in the West are already stopping the financing on projects in Russia etc.

Chess master Putin with a grandmaster move again.

 

[TheInsider]

This situation favors China. China will buy Russian natural resources at very favorable prices and Russia will stick to China even more from this point on. Recruiting Russia against China is a pipe dream now.