I wonder how Russia would be able to pay replenishing its weapons stock after the war, with sanctions wrecking it's economy and starved from semiconductors supply.
That is the funniest thing for me too. This time Putin miscalculated the whole situation sooooooo bad.
First about his expectation about Ukraine- he thought that his forces will be met as liberators by the locals and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lay down their weapons without even firing a bullet. He thought that Ukraine's leadership will probably flee and a puppet will be put in Kyiv easily. What we saw is the complete opposite.
Second: he expected that the EU, NATO and the West will again do nothing but empty talk and declarations against his aggression. After what he did in Georgia, Crimea, East Ukraine and Syria he only saw the West as unwilling to punish him for his deeds. He was seeing how the EU is being lead by weak, soft and incapable leaders, how his pawns in the far-left and the far-right are ready to protect Kremlin interests. Putin underestimated his opponents here too. After decades we see Germans re-arming again, whole of Europe being united, NATO allies coordinating and expanding their partnership. Putin's whole strategy against the West/NATO crumbles very fast.
Third: Putin overestimated the strength of his Armed forces way too much. Yeah, he still has much more weapons than most countries in the world and enough firepower to overwhelm almost any opponent but Russian tactics, logistics, rampant corruption and tech are stuck in the 80s and this gets more and more visible with every passing day. When Russian access to Western technologies is being cut off completely this will make the decay of their Armed forces even worse.
Fourth: Russia HAD a very big reserve amounting to over 650 billion dollars. They have huge natural reserves, enough land and water to feed billions of people. Still the Russian economy is weak and the worst for it haven't even started yet as much of the sanctions against their economy haven't even been applied yet. The effects of this whole isolation will be felt in the coming weeks and months. The stock exchanges in Russia haven't been opened for a week and already most of their big banks and companies are basically bankrupt. Western companies operating in Russia are already leaving the country. The ruble collapses even though the Central bank of Russia does everything to support it. The foreign reserves of the CB or what is not frozen already will melt eventually.
The only thing the West needs to do now is too keep the supply of weaponry, fuel, food and medicines to Ukraine going while more and more sanctions keep kicking in. Ukraine has the potential to be Russia's absolute end and a humiliation for the centuries. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a walk in the park compared to what Ukraine will be even if it falls under Russian occupation.
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