For whom have too much time to read
Кремль, вероятно, осознав, что больше не продвинется в Украине, решил аннексировать территории, которые успел захватить.
korrespondent.net
"Referenda" and "mobilization" in the Russian Federation. What's going on?
Torn off Russian flag in the Kharkiv region
The Kremlin, probably realizing that it would not advance further in Ukraine, decided to annex the territories it managed to seize.
The Russian occupiers have begun to fuss today - the State Duma adopted laws on mobilization in an expedited manner, and collaborators in the occupied territories of Ukraine are calling on Moscow to urgently accept them into the Russian Federation. The media write that Vladimir Putin will make a speech on this issue today. In intelligence, meanwhile, they say that Russian troops are preparing for defense in the occupied territories. And the quotes of securities on the Moscow Exchange against this background went down sharply.
Korrespondent.net tells what's going on.
Russia prepares for new annexation
On September 20, the “LDNR” and the occupation “administrations” in the occupied territories of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions simultaneously announced the holding of quasi-referendums on joining the Russian Federation on September 23-27.
Apparently, the Kremlin realized that they could not move further and decided to annex what was left. Meduza writes that just last week the issue of "referendums" in the Kremlin was at a standstill.
The situation has changed in just a few days and sources close to the Kremlin say that the Russian authorities do not intend to create even an "illusion of legitimacy." "It will be important to hold some kind of vote and report on the result," Meduza quoted his interlocutors as saying.
Among the reasons for the change is the fear of collaborators and other representatives of the occupiers in the occupied territories after - after the successful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they were seriously worried about their fate.
"After the Ukrainian counter-offensive, these fears multiplied, and fears appeared in the "DNR" and "LNR", where they were not widespread," the article says.
The main proponents of this position are Andrey Turchak, head of Putin's United Russia party, and former President Dmitry Medvedev, whose new official title is hard to remember.
Sources say that Medvedev, Turchak and their entourage have teamed up to put pressure on Putin and the security forces, who believe that mobilization is needed for Russia to succeed on the front.
It is noted that Putin himself wanted to hold his pseudo-referenda as soon as possible. The Kremlin believes that they will stop the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since "they will not risk advancing on the territory of Russia." At the same time, Ukraine strikes both at Crimea, which the Russian Federation considers its territory, and at recognized Russian territories.
If Ukraine’s counter-offensive continues, Moscow intends to carry out partial mobilization in Russia and introduce martial law, Meduza’s interlocutors say.
and to mobilization
Today, the State Duma of Russia introduced the concepts of "mobilization" and "martial law" into the criminal code. For the adoption of the law in the third reading, the deputies voted unanimously - all 389 people.
In the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, articles were added Voluntary surrender - up to ten years in prison and Looting - up to 15 years. The list of aggravating circumstances added the commission of a crime "during the period of mobilization or martial law, in wartime."
The law also toughened the punishment for unauthorized abandonment of a unit during the period of mobilization and martial law - up to ten years in a colony. In addition, the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation introduced punishment for failure to comply with the order of the chief during martial law, in wartime or in armed conflict, as well as for refusing to participate in hostilities. This is punishable by two to three years in prison.
At a meeting on September 20, the State Duma also adopted a law that simplifies the granting of Russian citizenship to foreigners serving in the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
One of the authors of the amendments, Senator Olga Kovitidi, said that the amendments to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation do not mean mobilization in Russia: "As far as this law is concerned, mobilization has not been announced in the country."
War party ramps up nuclear blackmail
The first official reaction from Moscow came from Medvedev in his Telegram channel, which he has not written to for a week. He supported the proposals of the occupying "administrations" on a pseudo-referendum and threatened to "use all the forces of self-defense" in case of "encroachment on the territory of Russia" - referring to the impending annexation of Ukrainian territories.
On the eve of the "Crimean scenario" - wrote the main Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan. According to her, "it's all-in."
"Today is a referendum, tomorrow - recognition as part of the Russian Federation, the day after tomorrow - strikes on Russian territory become a full-fledged war between Ukraine and NATO with Russia, untying Russia's hands in all respects," she wrote on Twitter.
That Medvedev, that Simonyan, imply the use of nuclear weapons. Many experts assume that in the event of the annexation of Ukrainian territories, Russia may use nuclear weapons.
However, most experts still agree that Moscow will not take such a step. Among them is Petr Topychkanov, Associate Senior Research Fellow at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In a commentary for the Voice of America, he noted that he sees no reason for Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. According to the expert, this does not correlate with either the Russian nuclear doctrine or the very nature of hostilities in Ukraine.
"But since the armed confrontation continues, then, of course, the level of unpredictability of how events can develop further remains high. And this does not really open the gates for the implementation of nuclear scenarios, but creates more favorable conditions for their implementation," - said the expert.
Topychkanov found it difficult to say whether the nuclear factor has a serious impact on the West's restraint regarding the supply of the most effective and advanced weapons to Ukraine.
"We see that Western countries are gradually increasing the range of weapons supplied to Kyiv. If initially there were fears that the Kremlin might react very harshly to such steps, now this is not obvious," he said.
The use of tactical nuclear or chemical weapons by Russia on the territory of Ukraine will have consequences for it, said 16th US President Joe Biden in an interview with CBS.
“There will be consequences. They will become more outcasts in the world than they have ever been. And depending on the scale of what they do, we will determine what the answer will be,” the head of the White House said.
