Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Relic

Experienced member
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,808
Reactions
14 2,769
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
Funny to see so many people understimate Russian power , After huge losse for west agaist Russia about sanction war that more harm caused to europe than Russia now those people speaks biased about power of Russia .
Do u know history?
Russia during ww2 That people were so poor but produced 100+k tanks and invaded German Nazism and capture Berlin . Those Russian same as todays Russians .
Russia had 3500 active tanks but some 20k were in reserve more than entire NATO together and if neccesary can produce 10k tanks per year . Russia is last hope for humanity agasit zionists globalists devils that want to take everything under control and destroy human race .
If you think Russia has 20,000 MBTs in reserve that can be fielded in this war... Then I have a bridge in New York to sell you.

Here is the real story. Russia had between 10,000-12,000 tanks at the start of the war, including those active and in reserve. Those numbers have been accumulated by counting, using western satellites. It's pretty damn accurate count. Now, let's dig into it further. Russian had between 3000-4000 tanks being actively used in combat units, before the war. Most were T-72 and T-80 variants, with a smaller number of the more modern T-90 mixed in. It's estimated that the total number of these tank types available to the Russians was between 6000-7000 at the beginning of the conflict. But here is the catch. MANY, possibly upwards of 2000 of those tanks had been stored outside, left to rust over the last 30+ years and many of them had already been canabilized for parts. Best estimates are that Russian began the war with between 5000-6000 combat ready, T-72, T-80 and T-90 variants, of which they've lost more than 2500 to destruction and capture.

The remaining MBTs that you speak of, some 4000-6000, are ancient T-62 and T-55 variants, without any modern censors or systems and such bad armor, that they are simply mobile coffins at this point. They absolutely cannot be used in an offensive capacity and really only serve the purpose of defensive, short range artillery systems. Counting these as mbts in this conflict is like saying the West could send a couple thousand M-60 Patton tanks. That would be suicide for the Ukrainians using them.

The reality is that Russia has somewhere between 2500-3500 useful tanks left in its fleet, with the capacity to manufacture approximately 200 more per year. That's not nearly enough for them to complete their goal of taking over Ukraine and sacking Kyiv. Ukraine has some 20,000+ multi-variant anti tank weapons in its stockpiles, with thousands more at their disposal each year. When Russia lost half it's available tank fleet to destruction and capture over the first 14 months of this war, their ability to commit to large scale armored offensives was drastically reduced. They're in terrible shape in that sense.

Russia still has lots of Air Force assets and substantial (although increasingly decaying) artillery capability. Their armoured units have been devastated, which is why they used meat rushes to to take Bakhmut, costing them some 20,000+ casualties to take a single city. They simply can't afford to continue to advance with their armour, or they're not going to have any modern systems left.
 

Afif

Experienced member
Moderator
Bangladesh Correspondent
DefenceHub Diplomat
Bangladesh Moderator
Messages
4,752
Reactions
94 9,075
Nation of residence
Bangladesh
Nation of origin
Bangladesh
Storm Shadow was a capability gap weapon, created to serve a purpose. France and Britain are moving beyond it, as technology in the cruise missile space has increased significantly, at a much better price. Britain, for instance, is turning to the newest variant of the Israeli Rampage cruise missile, which performs similarly, with better survivability, at a much cheaper cost.

Rampage won't replace Storm shadow my friend!
They are in different leagues and serve different purposes.

There is nothing about Storm Shadow that is new or cutting edge. It's the same idea as Javelin, Stinger and NLAW. These systems might be new to Russians, who are notoriously behind in most military technologies, but they are old systems, that the West is already replacing and moving past.

Storm Shadow/Scalp is still the most up to date conventional air to ground weapon that Brits and French got in their services. New missile won’t enter service before 2030.

And Russian KH101 has similar stealth characteristics to Storm Shadow.
So, no. They are not necessarily behind in this particular area, at least compared to the Europeans.

Fact of the matter is, all subsonic cruise missile (no matter how advanced they are) are super vulnerable to adequate air defense systems. (Ukriane proved it) It just happened to be that Russian short range air defence systems mostly sucks, so they couldn't manage to shoot it down until now.
 

chibiyabi

Contributor
Messages
541
Reactions
3 476
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Togo
If you think Russia has 20,000 MBTs in reserve that can be fielded in this war... Then I have a bridge in New York to sell you.

Here is the real story. Russia had between 10,000-12,000 tanks at the start of the war, including those active and in reserve. Those numbers have been accumulated by counting, using western satellites. It's pretty damn accurate count. Now, let's dig into it further. Russian had between 3000-4000 tanks being actively used in combat units, before the war. Most were T-72 and T-80 variants, with a smaller number of the more modern T-90 mixed in. It's estimated that the total number of these tank types available to the Russians was between 6000-7000 at the beginning of the conflict. But here is the catch. MANY, possibly upwards of 2000 of those tanks had been stored outside, left to rust over the last 30+ years and many of them had already been canabilized for parts. Best estimates are that Russian began the war with between 5000-6000 combat ready, T-72, T-80 and T-90 variants, of which they've lost more than 2500 to destruction and capture.

The remaining MBTs that you speak of, some 4000-6000, are ancient T-62 and T-55 variants, without any modern censors or systems and such bad armor, that they are simply mobile coffins at this point. They absolutely cannot be used in an offensive capacity and really only serve the purpose of defensive, short range artillery systems. Counting these as mbts in this conflict is like saying the West could send a couple thousand M-60 Patton tanks. That would be suicide for the Ukrainians using them.

The reality is that Russia has somewhere between 2500-3500 useful tanks left in its fleet, with the capacity to manufacture approximately 200 more per year. That's not nearly enough for them to complete their goal of taking over Ukraine and sacking Kyiv. Ukraine has some 20,000+ multi-variant anti tank weapons in its stockpiles, with thousands more at their disposal each year. When Russia lost half it's available tank fleet to destruction and capture over the first 14 months of this war, their ability to commit to large scale armored offensives was drastically reduced. They're in terrible shape in that sense.

Russia still has lots of Air Force assets and substantial (although increasingly decaying) artillery capability. Their armoured units have been devastated, which is why they used meat rushes to to take Bakhmut, costing them some 20,000+ casualties to take a single city. They simply can't afford to continue to advance with their armour, or they're not going to have any modern systems left.

Rampage won't replace Storm shadow my friend!
They are in different leagues and serve different purposes.



Storm Shadow/Scalp is still the most up to date conventional air to ground weapon that Brits and French got in their services. New missile won’t enter service before 2030.

And Russian KH101 has similar stealth characteristics to Storm Shadow.
So, no. They are not necessarily behind in this particular area, at least compared to the Europeans.

Fact of the matter is, all subsonic cruise missile (no matter how advanced they are) are super vulnerable to adequate air defense systems. (Ukriane proved it) It just happened to be that Russian short range air defence systems mostly sucks, so they couldn't manage to shoot it down until now.
russia already had storm shadow wreckage from suriah long time ago
 

contricusc

Contributor
Messages
532
Reactions
8 791
Nation of residence
Panama
Nation of origin
Romania
That's 17-23 high end combat jets delivered to the VKS to make up for losses.

Oryx blog list of high end combat jet losses (excluding Su-25, Su24) is around 36 jets

17-23 is still less than 36, and this is only about replacing the modern jets lost.

Now add the Su-25, Su-24, Migs and Helicopetrs lost (which are far more than the new deliveries), and you see a big decrease in combat aircraft.

On top of that, we must also consider the pilots who were killed, which are extremely hard to replace with similar skilled pilots. The training of new pilots is made even more difficult because lots of experienced pilots have been lost, and trainers have been sent to combat missions.

On top of aircraft and pilot losses, you also have the depletion of missile stocks, which also reduces effectiveness.

There is also the risk that the sanctions will affect the number of future deliveries, as it will be more difficult for the Russian industry to source some high end components.

So far, the VKS has lost much more than it could replace, and the future looks even darker, considering improved Ukrainian air defences and the possible arrival of F-16s in the near future.

I don’t see how the VKS could retain its capability if the war drags on for much longer.
 

UkroTurk

Experienced member
Land Warfare Specialist
Professional
Messages
2,684
Reactions
55 4,801
Nation of residence
Turkey
Nation of origin
Turkey
Turkish FIRTINA howitzers are on the way!!!

İt seems Türkiye to have promised FIRTINAs and now is delivery.
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
17-23 is still less than 36, and this is only about replacing the modern jets lost.

Actually my edited data shows it to be 30 new high end Jets delivered from last year to June this year. Which btw confirm my post that Russian air force is more or less the same. Add this into consideration : The one in production today like the Su-34M are an improved version of the SU-34 and Su-57 finally entered service.
Now add the Su-25, Su-24, Migs and Helicopetrs lost (which are far more than the new deliveries), and you see a big decrease in combat aircraft.
Those Su-25 are no biggie, they're semi expendable and Russia at this point should've realize that the traditional WW2 style CAS is outdated. The newer Su-34 equipped with glide bombs wil eventually replace the Su-25 in almost all A2G mission.

Russia learned the hard way that the "Close' in Close Air Support (CAS) is not to be taken literally. They're improving with the introduction of glide bombs, which btw are mostly compatible with SU-34/35

On top of that, we must also consider the pilots who were killed, which are extremely hard to replace with similar skilled pilots. The training of new pilots is made even more difficult because lots of experienced pilots have been lost, and trainers have been sent to combat missions.

There are more Ukrainian combat pilots killed than Russians, and most of the A2A kills in this war are Russians, in particular from their fleet of Su-35 and MiG-31 equipped with R-33 VLRAAM.

There is also the risk that the sanctions will affect the number of future deliveries, as it will be more difficult for the Russian industry to source some high end components.

Here's another data on Russian aircraft delivery up to December 2022

29 combat and combat training aircraft were delivered:
  • four Su-30SM2
  • ten Su-34M
  • seven Su-35S
  • six Su-57
  • two Yak-130.

Not bad eh ? This is just for combat aircraft. Last year Russia has finally decide to scrap the PW1000G GTF engine and replaced it with its own high bypass turbofan (albeit non-GTF) Aviadvigatel PD-14 to equip its domestic MC-21, they also restarted production of their Tu-214 and Il-96-400M

Sanctions doesn't work mate, at least not as intended
new-rossyia-mc-21-livery-1.jpeg






So far, the VKS has lost much more than it could replace, and the future looks even darker, considering improved Ukrainian air defences and the possible arrival of F-16s in the near future.
I mean with the current loss rate they would eventually run out of planes....in 2040

F-16 is a big upgade for the Ukraine because it offers their pilots for the first time the ability to use medium-long active radar homing missile and crank once they fire. The introduction of the F-16 add complexity to the Russian pilots, but its nowhere a big issue as hyped.
Especially that the (likely) model delivered are ex-Dane MLU F-16AM/BM with APG-66v2 radar. Its nice, but wouldn't be a big deal when your opposition is the SU-57.
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
edit :

x2 Su-30SM2 (another 2 not yet finished in the photo)
x2 Su-35S
x2 Su-34M

Last year:

x6 Su-57
x6-7 Su-35
x3 batch of' Su-34M (presumably 4 or less per batch)
x2 MiG-31BM
x2 Tu-160M almost finished (1 actually finished but not yet delivered, another one must have been finished already by now)

If the VKS could improve on its combat survivability even more, technically their air force could grow, at least when it comes to the higher end of combat jets.

This is one way they could increase survivability


This year's delivery could be up to 4 additional Su-34M on top of the 2 delivered a month or two ago.

While one of the new serial built Tu-160Ms are seen here

 

Relic

Experienced member
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,808
Reactions
14 2,769
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
Czech Republic 🇨🇿 will send an unknown number of MI-24 attack helicopters to Ukraine, with 100,000 pieces of "large calibre ammunition".

Nice little donation from the Czechs!

 
Last edited:

Afif

Experienced member
Moderator
Bangladesh Correspondent
DefenceHub Diplomat
Bangladesh Moderator
Messages
4,752
Reactions
94 9,075
Nation of residence
Bangladesh
Nation of origin
Bangladesh
He was running out into the road anyways, they should have pushed him out in front of the convoy, rather than pulling him back from it... Problem solved.

He is a Civilian.
 

Relic

Experienced member
Canada Correspondent
Messages
1,808
Reactions
14 2,769
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
Canada
Italy 🇮🇹 will send additional M109-L Howitzers to Ukraine. You can see them being prepared to be shipped here. Italy had 221 M109-L in service, however, they retired them in favour of the Panzerhaubitze 2000. They previously donated 60 M109-L to Ukraine and have 160'ish left in storage. It's unknown exactly how many of those 160 are combat ready.


Between these howitzers and the unknown quantity of Firtina howitzers that Turkey 🇹🇷 is, apparently, preparing to send, they will serve to to significantly bolster Ukraine's artillery capability.

Speaking of Turkey 🇹🇷, South Korea 🇰🇷 has been finding quiet ways to help in this war, without sending military supplies directly to Ukraine. Considering the Firtina is an analog of the South Korean K9 Thunder, it would be great to see Turkey agree to send 24 (battalion + 6 spares) Firtina howitzers to Ukraine, backfilled by the South Koreans, who have 1200 of the systems (many of which are in storage).
 
S

Slayer5000

Guest
Funny to see so many people understimate Russian power , After huge losse for west agaist Russia about sanction war that more harm caused to europe than Russia now those people speaks biased about power of Russia .
Do u know history?
Russia during ww2 That people were so poor but produced 100+k tanks and invaded German Nazism and capture Berlin . Those Russian same as todays Russians .
Russia had 3500 active tanks but some 20k were in reserve more than entire NATO together and if neccesary can produce 10k tanks per year . Russia is last hope for humanity agasit zionists globalists devils that want to take everything under control and destroy human race .
Russia is solely responsible for this war. They've lost their sphere of interest in the region due to corruption and decided that if Ukraine doesn't want to belong to their sphere of interest the soft way, then Ukraine must be invaded.

And this is not WW2. You cannot take refuge in past glory and hope it will perform miracles today. Doesn't work like that.
 

TR_123456

Experienced member
Staff member
Administrator
Messages
5,091
Reactions
12,693
Nation of residence
Nethelands
Nation of origin
Turkey
Russia is solely responsible for this war. They've lost their sphere of interest in the region due to corruption and decided that if Ukraine doesn't want to belong to their sphere of interest the soft way, then Ukraine must be invaded.

And this is not WW2. You cannot take refuge in past glory and hope it will perform miracles today. Doesn't work like that.
Check your alerts.
 

Gary

Experienced member
Messages
8,361
Reactions
22 12,853
Nation of residence
Indonesia
Nation of origin
Indonesia
9 years of Syrian war.

982 IFV destroyed​
8 APC (MTLB) destroyed​
105 SPH destroyed​

1.5 years of Russian war

905 APC destroyed​
441 SPH destroyed​


 

BalkanTurk90

Contributor
Messages
658
Reactions
5 1,028
Nation of residence
Albania
Nation of origin
Turkey
Russia is solely responsible for this war. They've lost their sphere of interest in the region due to corruption and decided that if Ukraine doesn't want to belong to their sphere of interest the soft way, then Ukraine must be invaded.

And this is not WW2. You cannot take refuge in past glory and hope it will perform miracles today. Doesn't work like that.
Really?! than same for Turkiye , cos Turkiye did in Kibris 1974 same what Russia is doing today in Ukraine . Perhaps u dont know or dont give a fu*k but thousends of kids and civilians got killed by zelensky.
 
Last edited:

Follow us on social media

Latest posts

Top Bottom