Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Gary]

Defense in depth will be important for Ukraine, as it has been been throughout the war. Russia has has proven time and again thay everytime they advance in a region they become stretched too thin, have their logistics and supplies targeted by Ukrainian long range weapons and they become immediately vulnerable to counter attack.

We saw it in Kyiv, when their 40km convoy was pushed back into Belarus, after experiencing extreme losses as a result of a logistics debacle.

We saw it in Kharkiv, where the entire Russian offensive collapsed and they lost hundreds of heavy vehicles to capture, in an unorganized, panicked retreat, as their logistics collapsed and they had to fall back to Luhansk.

We saw it in Kherson, when Russian supplies began to run out and the Russian Army was forced to retreat out of the entire region, rather than be trapped against the river.

We're seeing it in Bakhmut, where Russia is losing substantial ground north and south of the city in a matter of weeks, that took them 6-8 months to capture previously.

Ukraine will adjust, as they have throughout the conflict, and the casualties that Russia will endure will, again, be extremely heavy.

This is an oversimplification and overgeneralization of things, In the case of Northern Ukraine (Sumy-Kyiv) campaign, the Russian logistics are hampered by their failure to secure key cities and their own underestimation of the defending side. In Kharkiv, the lack of manpower and their complete lack of defensive lines helped Ukraine overcome the front, in Kherson the destruction of the main supply line like Kherson bridge severely hurt their ability to resupply.

None of which are present in the current frontline of Zaporizhia and most of the active frontline including Svatove. Where logistics are improved, fortifications are strengthened and in general the Russians has improved in their combat capability.

Also if have yet to notice, the HIMARS no longer are effective in destroying Russian munitions dump at the frontline like in their first 3 months of combat in Ukraine, as the Russians has already adapted long ago, HIMARS and its GMLRS are mostly used in the artillery killing role nowadays.

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683367524740612098

 

[Dmitry]

3 warehouses with grain destroyed in port of Reni on Danube in attack by russian drones ​

Three warehouses with grain destroyed in port of Reni in attack by drones - media

Three warehouses with grain were destroyed in the port of Reni in an invaders' attack by Iranian strike drones of the Shahed type, according to the website of the Reni-Odesa. Our Common Home publication, citing the head of the Reni community, Ihor Plekhov.

en.interfax.com.ua

Russia attacks Ukraine's Danube export route in widening air strikes

Russia destroyed Ukrainian grain warehouses on the Danube River and wounded six people in a drone attack on Monday, expanding the target area of an air campaign that it launched last week after pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine said.

www.reuters.com

 

[UkroTurk]

Highlights of the night:

— Two drones fell in Moscow. No harm done;

- Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov said that he expects to join NATO at the summit of the alliance in the summer of 2024;

- In the Dzhankoy region of Crimea, a drone hit an ammunition depot. In total, 11 attacking UAVs were shot down and suppressed in the region, Governor Aksyonov said. Some parts of the region have been evacuated;

- The terrorist Strelkov was placed in the Lefortovo pre-trial detention center. He refused to communicate with human rights activists.

 

[Ecderha]

putin need more russians for the meat grinder.

putin has raise again (this is second raise) the upper age limit for recruits from 50 to 55.

(more info: putin already applied 3 times of mobilizations - 160 000 1st, 300 000 2nd and 500 000 3rd)

At present day putin is raising age limit to execute 4rd mobilization.
He need soldiers, they die FAST so it is time for the next mobilization

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683460201012416512

 

[Ecderha]

putins propagandist keep said occupied "Crimea" is the most protected place in world.
World keep seeing the Facts

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683467811925159936

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683349977009889281

Question: What air defense is doing?

 

[Ecderha]

russian officials try to threaten Italy and more specifically the new Prime Minister Giorgia Melon
russians officials want from her to "withdraw support for Ukraine " and tell here "it's better to live in a dictatorship than to die."

Those putins evil tugs must die.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683199045232381952

 

[Ecderha]

The President of Chile saying it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1682342473769578496

 

[Ryder]

Honestly by this rate this war is going to end up in a stalemate.

And a stalemate where both sides will just constantly slug it out until one gives up.

What we see right now is pretty similar to Iran-Iraq. It wont last like a decade but the war will continue for a while while both sides make small gains with lots of trench warfare.

 

[UkroTurk]

"Pantsyr" could not repel the attack of the drone 300 meters from the place of impact, - mass media

And it is installed on the roof of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

 

[Relic]

Honestly by this rate this war is going to end up in a stalemate.

And a stalemate where both sides will just constantly slug it out until one gives up.

What we see right now is pretty similar to Iran-Iraq. It wont last like a decade but the war will continue for a while while both sides make small gains with lots of trench warfare.

A stalemate, undeniably, is advantageous to Ukraine, as long as Westen funding is "in it" for the long haul. Russia's economy has shown significant cracks in it and it's manufacturing capacity is dwarfed by the West's collective ability to ramp over time and overwhelm Russian production capacity. Furthermore, any time you're fighting a war of aggression and not seeing positive results, it is eventually the case that the people back at home get sick of funding it and having their family members come home in body bags, for no meaningful cause / result.

Finally, Ukraine's military will only get stronger with time. The further they get away from Soviet made equipment and fighting tactics, the greater the advantage they will gain over Russia (in a defensive posture). It's easy to forget that Ukraine has only received a small percentage of the air defense systems that they will receive over time, as they have to be manufactured prior delivery. As an example, approximately 3-4 of the 14 NASAMS systems purchased for Ukraine are currently operating in the country. They are supposed to start arriving at a faster pace towards the end of the year.

Artillery is also interesting. Ukraine / The West has purchased numerous battalions worth of Western made self-propelled howitzers. Eveything from Zuzana 2, Dana, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Krab and RCH-155. Ukraine already has a technological advantage in artillery capability over Russia, especially in the area of counter battery fire. Gradually, with more Western made systems coming online, that advantage will grow, especially as both Europe and the United States ramp up artillery shell production well beyond that of what Russia can produce.

Western made fighter jets have not yet arrived in Ukraine, but they will towards the end of 2023 and into the first half of 2024. Make no mistake about it, Ukraine isn't going to be able to achieve air superiority over Russia, who has a vast air force of their own, but what Ukraine will be able to do is is use the full weapon's suite of the F-16, allowing standoff weapons such as JDAMS, JASSMS, HAARMs and guided bombs to be used to their full potential. Russia can't track or shoot down the old Ukrainian Su-24's launching Storm Shadow / SCALP right now. They're going to have no answer for F-16's launching long range, standoff weapons, from well behind the front lines.

Ukraine's drone technology is also in the process of expanding rapidly. Admittedly, Russia's Lancet drone has given them the edge in Kamikaze drone technology, however, that gap is closing rapidly. Aerovironment's S600 drone is starting to be mass produced for Ukraine and will give them similar capabilite to that of the Russian Lancet, giving them another medium range strike tool to compliment GMLRS and cruise missiles.

Simultaneously, Ukraine's anti-drone technology is slowly improving, with help from the West, helping make Shahed drones obsolete. Ukraine is set to receive additional Gepard systems, as well as sufficient ammunition as Germany increases domestic production capacity. Systems such as Gepard and Skynex are ideal for intercepting slow Russian drones, at an affordable price.

There are further examples, but I think my point has been made. Time is not on Russia's side because their economy continues to dip into major struggle, it's manufacturing capacity is becoming increasingly dwarfed by the West's and despite an enormous store of weapons courteousy of the Soviet Union, Russia is chewing through ammunition (especially cruise / ballistic missiles and artillery shells) at a pace far faster than they can produce them domestically. This process is being expedited by Ukraine's selective targeting (with help from partisans) of substantial Russian ammunition depots. We've seen no fewer than 6 substantial depots targeted over the last week. This greatly increases the rate at which Russia will run low on large caliber ammunition.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683456844755501056

 

[UkroTurk]

Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for the second wave of counteroffensive

The German publication Bild claims that Ukraine is preparing a "fiery fist" and harsh attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front are expected soon.

During the first stage of the counter-offensive, the Ukrainian army did move rather slowly and did not have significant success, but soon the situation will change significantly. This will happen due to the fact that the Ukrainian defenders approached the fortifications of the occupiers, which previously complicated the advancement of the Defense Forces. This conclusion was reached by the German publication Bild.

"We're Coming to the Moment"​

In particular, foreign journalists analyzed the statement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Aspen Security Forum. Then the head of state confirmed that the Ukrainian military would soon noticeably pick up the pace, because they managed to overcome a fairly large mined area.

The publication notes that now the Ukrainian army is acting carefully so as not to damage the military and equipment, but in parallel quotes the words of Zelensky: “Nevertheless, I believe that today we are approaching the moment when relevant activities can be carried out faster, as we reach certain milestones in demining.”

"This means: if demining is successful in certain sectors of the front, a new wave of attacks will begin!"

Ukraine bildet „Feuerfaust“: Zweite Welle der Gegen-Offensive!

Die Ukrainer haben eine „Feuerfaust“ gebildet und führen heftige Angriffe hinter der Russen-Front durch.

m.bild.de

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683527929999785984

The Hermes complex will soon be sent to the Z zone "Tests of the Hermes multifunctional missile system continue, it is being modernised taking into account changes in the situation and tasks in the Z zone," sources at the Tula KBP said. "A decision on delivery will be made based on the results of tests," the source added. The long-range Hermes ATGM is a promising new-generation precision-guided system combining the properties of artillery and anti-tank systems. The Hermes missile with a detachable launch motor has a universal fragmentation warhead. For longer ranges (up to 100km) the missile is equipped with a larger calibre launch stage. The control system is combined: at the initial stage of flight the missile is controlled by an inertial system (for versions with a range of 15-18km) or a radio command system (for versions with ranges of 40 and 100km); at the final stage the missile is semi-actively homing itself to the target using laser radiation reflected from it or other types of homing.

 

[Ecderha]

People here should understand that putin did cross all red lines for humanity.
He is definitely living in sick and twisted dream.
You should understand that he is only single dictator out there responsible of many invasion wars.
Millions and millions civilian people lost they lives, because of him.

Putin this evil worshiper do brutally "violates international laws" continuously..

Major part of World already said Enough is Enough.
putin is lying himself and russians that they will win.
Facts are out there.
putin lost the War and now on the table is how much more russia and russian will keep losing more and more.
russian future is going down

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683503809862201350

 

[GoatsMilk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683503809862201350

How about these Americans just give what Ukraine needs today instead of constantly talking? The biggest benefactor outside Ukraine defeating Russia is the USA and to do that costs peanuts for the americans.

There is no need for this war to drag on, just give them what they need now. Not 6 months from now.

 

[Gary]

People here should understand that putin did cross all red lines for humanity.
He is definitely living in sick and twisted dream.
You should understand that he is only single dictator out there responsible of many invasion wars.
Millions and millions civilian people lost they lives, because of him.

Putin this evil worshiper do brutally "violates international laws" continuously..

Major part of World already said Enough is Enough.
putin is laying himself and russians that they will win.
Facts are out there. putin lost the War and now on the table is how much more russia and russian will keep losing more.
russian future is going down

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683503809862201350

A few point from me regarding this:

He's a politician, first and foremost. And politicians do what all politicians did. Try talk humanity to politicians in private and they'll laugh at you. I remember a quote from the movie The Hunt for Red October which suits all politicians (Putin, Zelensky, Netanyahu, Trump, Biden etc)

"Listen Im politician. Which Means I am a cheat and liarer. When I am not kissing babies I am stealing their Lollipops pops.

There is no such thing as 'international law' or 'rule based world order', the correct terms is Western imposed world order, and no this is not me parroting Z supporters, I said this because it is what it is. The current 'law and order' will not be there if its not imposed, and Putin is doing the repeating cycle of any power in history...that is to collapse this order just like the world orders of the past has collapsed and replaces it with its own (lol).

If Putin succeed to collpase this 'international' order, we would see its the West that start wars not Russia.

Whatever disgust the "world" (likely meaning Europe and Northern America) has towards Putin is irrelevant. Democracy and Republicanism used to be seen barbaric and filthy in Europe (which it is), yet the triumph of democracy over monarchy in many parts of Europe overturned this 'opinion' of them. If Putin is triumphant, history will write remember him as a great man, even it takes time. That's all what matter to Putin and he knows that.

That's it, nothing out of the ordinary here.

 

[Nilgiri]

How about these Americans just give what Ukraine needs today instead of constantly talking? The biggest benefactor outside Ukraine defeating Russia is the USA and to do that costs peanuts for the americans.

There is no need for this war to drag on, just give them what they need now. Not 6 months from now.

How about the Europeans first do so and match the American provision dollar for dollar....since:

A) its their continent, all results impact them much more than an ocean away country
B) EU same economic size and overall development per capita + financial resource as the US.
C) Bragged 20+ years now about having this and that social program in better shape than the US socioeconomically while sitting on US NATO logistics funding, so ought to put all of that to action financially w.r.t this war effort now surely? Rather than be behind in 20 billion vs 120 billion or whatever it is now.

Europe will have to start taking care of its own affairs on its continent more going forward....there is significant internal pressure in the US growing w.r.t this war funding from US. The democrat party + deep state establishment is fairly dismissive/ignorant/delusional to it, but not blind to it completely.

I am saying this as one that is highly sympathetic to situation Ukraine has found itself in.

 

[Relic]

How about the Europeans first do so and match the American provision dollar for dollar....since:

A) its their continent, all results impact them much more than an ocean away country
B) EU same economic size and overall development per capita + financial resource as the US.
C) Bragged 20+ years now about having this and that social program in better shape than the US socioeconomically while sitting on US NATO logistics funding, so ought to put all of that to action financially w.r.t this war effort now surely? Rather than be behind in 20 billion vs 120 billion or whatever it is now.

Europe will have to start taking care of its own affairs on its continent more going forward....there is significant internal pressure in the US growing w.r.t this war funding from US. The democrat party + deep state establishment is fairly dismissive/ignorant/delusional to it, but not blind to it completely.

I am saying this as one that is highly sympathetic to situation Ukraine has found itself in.

Well said. USA has been footing the bill for North American and European defense for far too long. There are a number of European countries with serious skin in the game regarding the outcome of this war, that could and should step up substantially. Some already have. See Poland and the Baltic States as an example... But I'm looking for multi-billion dollar year procurement efforts on behalf of Ukraine, from a number of European nations.

I'm looking for the following contributions between now and 2025. If countries want to commission the building of new equipment and send the older models from their own inventories, then backfill their own with new builds, I can live with that.

Sweden
100 CV90 IFVs
24 Archer 155mm howitzers
24 GRKPV 90 120mm mortars
50 RBS 70 MANPADS
10,000 AT4 rockets
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
150,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

Finland
18 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
100 Sisu Pasi APCs
24 D-30 152mm howitzers
10,000 122mm grad rockets
50,000 152mm artillery shells
100,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

Norway
30 M109A3 155mm howitzers
4 NASAMS air defense systems
400 AIM-120 / AIM-9X missiles
12 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters
100,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

The Netherlands
50 CV9040 IFVs
50 Fennek AFVs
15 FH70 155mm howitzers
12 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters
100,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

France
100 AMX-RC IFVs
200 VAB APCs
100 VBL Armoured Cars
24 FH70 155mm howitizers
12 MO RT F1120mm mortars
1 SAMP/T air defense battery
150 ASTER 30 air defense missiles
100 SCALP cruise missiles
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
250,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

Italy
100 PUMA APCs
90 stored Leopard 1A5 MBTs
24 M106 120mm mortar carriers
50 M109L 155mm howitzers
1 SAMP/T air defense battery
2 ASPIDE air defense batteries
150 ASTER 30 air defense missiles
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
150,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

Spain
18 Leopard 2A4 MBTs
100 M113 APCs
12 M109A5 155mm howitzers
4 HAWK air defense systems
150 HAWK air defense missiles
100,000 155mm artillery shells
Delivery Schedule: 2023-2025

Only when we see serious procurement objectives such as the ones listed above, can expect The United States , Britain , Germany and Poland to further increase their contributions. There has been be shared burden and many of the countries I listed above have substantial defense manufacturing / procurement capabilities. If the above countries would "come through" with that type of commitment, the United States would likely be more than willing to send another 100+ billion USD worth of equipment to Ukraine. They just have to know that Europe is "all in" on their shared defense as well.

 

[Ecderha]

Expensive tech loses of putin army in Bakhmut

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1683728049097801728