Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

GoatsMilk

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The President of Mongolia in 2009-2017, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, reacted to Vladimir Putin’s “historical lecture” in an interview with American propagandist Tucker Carlson, where he justified the invasion of Ukraine with the “historical lands of Russia.”

According to him, after Putin’s speech he found a historical map of Mongolia.

“On this map you can see that the modern territory of Rus' was part of the Mongol Empire for several centuries”...

But Mongolia is not going to conduct a Special Military Operation on its former territories, the former president assures

"Don't worry. We are a peaceful and free nation,” writes Elbegdorj.

View attachment 65548

Most nations neighbouring what is Ukraine today have more historic right to those lands then the Germanic Rus. Yet next to none of them are sitting today thinking any part of Ukraine belongs to them. Despite Ukraine being settled and ruled by Turks for close to 1500 years, no one in Turkey sits around thinking any part of Ukraine belongs to them. The only thing Turks care about is that the Crimean Tatars have liberties and rights, something Ukraine was giving them. Something the Russians originally destroyed and since taking Crimea have continued the oppression of the Tatars. Thank to Russia the Turkic presence in Ukraine was nearly erased, thanks to Ukraine the Tatars were welcomed back into their homes. Hence why the Tatar Turks are willingly fighting for Ukraine.

This is why i say to Muslims don't cry for Gaza, if your going to shill for Russia. Because hypocrites are the first in line to hell according to the religion. Russians did everything to erase the Muslim presence in those lands, while the Ukrainians did everything to invite the Tatars back into the Crimea.

What Isreal is doing today is really nothing compared to what Russia did in the past 300 years to Muslims.
 
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Ryder

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Honestly if Russia took a swift victory in Ukraine.

Belarus would have been annexed next without much bloodshed.

Russia's next military campaign would have been in Central Asia or the Caucasus.

They made it clear that they not just want themselves lots of warm water ports but all former Russian ruled lands belong to them.

Kazakhstan has lots of Russians there so many rumours of Russia using the oppression of Russian minorities as a way to invade Kazakhstan. If Kazakhstan was invaded I doubt it would get a lot of support from NATO.
 

FiReFTW

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You know what, there isn't much I agree with Donald Trump about, but something I do agree with is the idea that Europe should be primarily responsible for funding Ukraine's defense, for two reasons.

1. They are the countries most directly affected if Ukraine falls.

2. Most European NATO countries (like my own country) have failed to meet their 2% NATO commitments for many years, instead letting USA foot the bill for European defense.

If I were America, I would make the following demand in exchange for continued support. Each NATO country (USA aside) must commit 0.5% of their GDP to Ukraine EACH YEAR for the remainder of the conflict. Those funds can come in the form of macro financial aid to the Ukrainian Government (which is fungible) or direct military aid.

This is what it would look like in terms of annual liabilities...

Germany 🇩🇪: $20 Billion usd
Britain 🇬🇧: $15.5 Billion usd
France 🇫🇷: $14.0 Billion usd
Canada 🇨🇦: $10.5 Billion usd
Italy 🇮🇹: $10.0 Billion usd
Spain 🇪🇸: $7.0 Billion usd
Netherlands 🇳🇱 : $5.0 Billion usd
Poland 🇵🇱: $3.3 Billion usd
Sweden 🇸🇪: $2.9 Billion usd
Norway 🇳🇴: $2.9 Billion usd
Belgium 🇧🇪: $2.9 Billion usd
Denmark 🇩🇰: $2.0 Billion usd
Czechia 🇨🇿: $1.5 Billion usd
Romania 🇷🇴: $1.5 Billion usd
Finland 🇫🇮: $1.4 Billion usd
Portugal 🇵🇹: $1.3 Billion usd
Greece 🇬🇷: $1.1 Billion usd
Hungary 🇭🇺: $890 Million usd
Slovakia 🇸🇰: $575 Million usd
Bulgaria 🇧🇬: $445 Million usd
Luxembourg 🇱🇺: $410 Million usd
Croatia 🇭🇷: $350 Million usd
Lithuania 🇱🇹: $350 Million usd
Slovenia 🇸🇮: $310 Million usd
Latvia 🇱🇻: $205 Million usd
Estonia 🇪🇪: $190 Million usd
Iceland 🇮🇸: $140 Million usd
Albania 🇦🇱: $95 Million usd
North Macedonia 🇲🇰: $65 Million usd
Montenegro 🇲🇪: $30 Million usd

Estimated Total: $105 Billion usd

Those NATO nations would then be supplemented by the following spending already announced / pending.

United States 🇺🇸: $60.1 Billion usd
Ukraine 🇺🇦: $45 Billion usd

Everything ok with you?
Every country has a right to choose if they want to fund another country or a war of another country, and no country can force or bully someone that they HAVE to send their OWN MONEY to another country, thats just ridicilous.
 

Relic

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Everything ok with you?
Every country has a right to choose if they want to fund another country or a war of another country, and no country can force or bully someone that they HAVE to send their OWN MONEY to another country, thats just ridicilous.
I'm not suggesting that they don't have the right to make their own choice. I'm suggesting that countries that want to be part of an alliance ought to abide by the conditions of the alliance (2% of gdp towards the defense spending). Otherwise, the alliance should not have any problems abandoning that nation during their time of need.

It's objectively true that USA has had to fund Europe's defense for far too long, while the majority of those nations reneg on their responsibilities.
 
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Gary

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Honestly if Russia took a swift victory in Ukraine.

Belarus would have been annexed next without much bloodshed.

Russia's next military campaign would have been in Central Asia or the Caucasus.

They made it clear that they not just want themselves lots of warm water ports but all former Russian ruled lands belong to them.

Kazakhstan has lots of Russians there so many rumours of Russia using the oppression of Russian minorities as a way to invade Kazakhstan. If Kazakhstan was invaded I doubt it would get a lot of support from NATO.

I'm going to say it here. After Ukraine is puppetted, Russia will swing south and steamroll the Central Asian states. This will provoke 4 powers. China, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan with varying degrees of opposition to Russia's invasion. If successful, Russia will add another 70 million men to its population pool.

Success in Central Asia meant that Russia is moving after the Caucasus as you correctly noted, possibly absorbing both Armenia and Azerbaijan, both of which had pretty sour relationships with the Kremilin at the start of the 20s.

After Central Asia and Caucasus, Russia will wait, until an opportunity exists where the U.S. is out of the game and move toward securing the Baltics while testing what the European response looks like. This is where the 70 million addition of the Central Asian population will be put to good use if Europe decides they're going for war to stop further Russian expansion West. It's going to be a bloody onslaught.

and the next move is my earlier thought about securing Finland and Norway.
 
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contricusc

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If successful, Russia will add another 70 million men to its population pool.

You mean it will add another 70 million of opressed people who want to revolt and sabotage their opressors?

Do you think that people from the invaded countries will gladly join Russia’s military to help it expand further?

How did the big Algerian population pool help the French in the fifties?

After Central Asia and Caucasus, Russia will wait, until an opportunity exists where the U.S. is out of the game and move toward securing the Baltics while testing what the European response looks like.

If Russia wins in Ukraine, and after that it continues with expansionist wars in Central Asia and the Caucasus, you may rest assured that in the mean time Europe will arm to the teeth and it will probabaly secure Kaliningrad and Belarus before Russia has a chance to move into the Baltics.

and the next move is my earlier thought about securing Finland and Norway.

Attacking Finland would be a great way for the Finns ro recover their lost territories from Russia, as they would have the moral ground to take back what was stolen from them, and the full support of NATO. Also, an attack on the Scandinavian countries would be the fastest way for Russia to sink its Northern Fleet and be denied access to the Arctic Ocean.

Sankt Petersburg would probably seceed and become the fifth Baltic state (after Kaliningrad becomes the fourth), leaving Moscow as the sole king of the Siberian wasteland.
 
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Gary

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You mean it will add another 70 million of opressed people who want to revolt and sabotage their opressors?

Do you think that people from the invaded countries will gladly join Russia’s military to help it expand further?

How did the big Algerian population pool help the French in the fifties?

Have you missed history class lately ? Some of the most successful military units are formed that way


Janissaries began as elite corps made up through the devşirme system of child levy enslavement, by which Christian Albanians, Bosniaks, Bulgarians, Croats, Greeks, Romanians, Serbs and Ukrainians were taken, levied, subjected to forced circumcision and conversion to Islam, and incorporated into the Ottoman army.


Of course, religion-based motivation outstrips the importance of race/nation-based spirit, and that helps explain how the Jannisary were able to maintain their cohesion.

But again, if Russia wants to go to war with a population that only has half-love for them, it's their problem. It's their country after all, I'm just watching here as a neutral observer



If Russia wins in Ukraine, and after that it continues with expansionist wars in Central Asia and the Caucasus, you may rest assured that in the mean time Europe will arm to the teeth and it will probabaly secure Kaliningrad and Belarus before Russia has a chance to move into the Baltics.


Nuclear weapons will deter countries from entering Russia's proper, as for non-nuclear Europe, I pity them.

Sankt Petersburg would probably seceed and become the fifth Baltic state (after Kaliningrad becomes the fourth), leaving Moscow as the sole king of the Siberian wasteland.

The Europeans have been jerking off to such fantasy ever since the war in Ukraine started 2 years ago. What is clear since then is Ukraine's nationhood has been steadily eroded and now Europe is in the phase where they're not even sure if Ukraine will ever win the war, let alone reclaim all lost land


Attacking Finland would be a great way for the Finns ro recover their lost territories from Russia, as they would have the moral ground to take back what was stolen from them, and the full support of NATO. Also, an attack on the Scandinavian countries would be the fastest way for Russia to sink its Northern Fleet and be denied access to the Arctic Ocean.

Finland, if you miss anything is just a country of 5 million people. There are multiple metropolitan in Indonesia that are larger than the entirety of Finland,


from that 5 million they could not mobilize all, less they want the economy to completely halt. Russia could kill 500,000 and injure many more and the Finns will collapse on its own.

This is why I stress in my previous writing that when it comes to Finland, it's not the demography that is particularly sexy, it is the land area and the coastline that will prove beneficial.

Also, I have stressed that attacking Finland, the Baltics and basically NATO is only possible once the U.S. is out of the equation.
 

Ryder

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Taipans are lemons but instead of rotting in warehouses or being buried in dirt.

I think the Ukrainians could put them to better use.
 

Relic

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Ngl, I'm not dismissing the idea that Ukraine will try a 2024 Summer offensive with General Oleksandr "the butcher" Syrski at the helm.

Seems like he's so eager to throw men and reserves for phyric propaganda victory.

Actually, the best course of action
would be to deploy the rested, re-fitted, 3rd Assault Brigade (currently in reserve near Kramatorsk) to bolster a fighting retreat, to alleviate the pressure from the 110th, which holds the core of the city and the elements of the 53rd and 47th, which are fighting on the flanks...

A flexible, fighting retreat, surrendering the ruins of Avdiivka, like they did Bahmut, but not beofee inflicting massive casualties on the Russians as they take the ruins of the city, block-by-block. There are 40,000'ish Russian soldiers, but more importantly, hundreds of armored vehicles bearing down on Avdiivka. As they close in, this is a perfect chance to use rationed artillery shells, cheap drones, land mines and GMLRS strikes, to inflict massive casualties on the advancing Russians, most importantly, to their MBTs and IFVs. Rendering the Russian attacking units combat ineffective, after taking Avdiivka, is extremely important to stall any momentum the Russians in that eector have. That worked extremely well in the organized retreat from Bahmut, where Wagner was left with a pyrhic victory, its armored corps shattered.

Meanwhile, new defensive lines have already been prepared beyond the city, and Ukraine's weary defenders from the 110th need rest, and re-fit in the worst way.
 

Relic

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Taipans are lemons but instead of rotting in warehouses or being buried in dirt.

I think the Ukrainians could put them to better use.
I've been following this for a while and although Ukraine definitely wants what's left of the helos (I've read that less than 15 are actually still salvageable), the political will in Australia 🇦🇺 does not exist to have them repaired and sent.

How could Australia meaningfully help Ukraine right now though.

- 100 Additional Bushmaster APCs.
- 50,000 Additional 155mm artillery shells.

Australia has enough of both that they could send them tomorrow. They could quickly replenish their shells via purchase from South Korea 🇰🇷 and their Bushmaster production line is open and active in pumping out the sturdy APCs.

IMO, that would go a lot further than 15'ish Taipan utility helicopters. Now, if they were high end attack helicopters, that would be a different story, but the reality is that we're talking about something very different.
 

Gary

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Actually, the best course of action
would be to deploy the rested, re-fitted, 3rd Assault Brigade (currently in reserve near Kramatorsk) to bolster a fighting retreat, to alleviate the pressure from the 110th, which holds the core of the city and the elements of the 53rd and 47th, which are fighting on the flanks...

A flexible, fighting retreat, surrendering the ruins of Avdiivka, like they did Bahmut, but not beofee inflicting massive casualties on the Russians as they take the ruins of the city, block-by-block. There are 40,000'ish Russian soldiers, but more importantly, hundreds of armored vehicles bearing down on Avdiivka. As they close in, this is a perfect chance to use rationed artillery shells, cheap drones, land mines and GMLRS strikes, to inflict massive casualties on the advancing Russians, most importantly, to their MBTs and IFVs. Rendering the Russian attacking units combat ineffective, after taking Avdiivka, is extremely important to stall any momentum the Russians in that eector have. That worked extremely well in the organized retreat from Bahmut, where Wagner was left with a pyrhic victory, its armored corps shattered.

Meanwhile, new defensive lines have already been prepared beyond the city, and Ukraine's weary defenders from the 110th need rest, and re-fit in the worst way.

You speak as if :

  1. Ukraine has no manpower problem
  2. Ukraine has a lot of artillery shells and drones to be committed in this sector alone
  3. The reinforcement sent by Syrski and the 110th inside could automagically retreat themselves after the cauldron is closed (it is technically already closed now)
Once you're in and while fighting the Russians and the cauldron is closed, you're either:

  1. Fight to death
  2. becomes prisoner
anyway both are bad for Ukraine, but with Syrski at the helm everyone in Ukraine is of course sharing this great optimism of yours
 

contricusc

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A flexible, fighting retreat, surrendering the ruins of Avdiivka, like they did Bahmut, but not beofee inflicting massive casualties on the Russians as they take the ruins of the city, block-by-block.

What they did in Bakhmut was wrong, and a repeat of that would also be wrong. One of the reasons why Syrskyi is not trusted by the Ukrainian military is exactly the bad strategy he had in Bakhmut, because he retreated too late.

In the initial part of the offensive (both Balhmut and Avdiivka), the Russians were losing at a disproportionately high rate compared to Ukrainian defenders (some sources say 7-1 losses). This is when it was a good strategy to defend and bleed the Russians. But once they got into the city in Bakhmut and started to fight house by house, the loss rate evened out to approximately 1-1. This is terrible for Ukraine, because losing 1-1 against Russia is clearly in favor of the Russians who have a much larger population pool.

Once the Russians entered the city, the Ukrainians should have retreated, to avoid the 1-1 attrition rate of the house to house fighting.

Syrskyi made the wrong call In Bakhmut when he overstayed at the expense of many lives, and it seems that the same mistake is being made in Avdiivka now. The Ukrainians should have already left Avdiivka, once it was obvious that the retreat is inevitable and becomes more dangerous by the day.

Ukraine needs to conserve its manpower and inflict maximum damage on the Russians with minimal losses. Any fight that doesn’t have a very high casualty ratio in favor of the Ukrainians is good for Russia.
 

contricusc

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Janissaries began as elite corps made up through the devşirme system of child levy enslavement
Janissaries were raised and trained from the time they were small children. It took a generation to raise a unit. Even if Russia would try to use the same concept with annexed territories, it would be almost 20 years before they would be able to field such troops. In the meantime they would have to fight the 70 million rebelious population they recently occupied (in yur scenario).

The Europeans have been jerking off to such fantasy ever since the war in Ukraine started 2 years ago. What is clear since then is Ukraine's nationhood has been steadily eroded and now Europe is in the phase where they're not even sure if Ukraine will ever win the war, let alone reclaim all lost land

Russia’s economy is weaker than ever. The longer the war drags out, the weaker Russia becomes, and it is just a question of time before the country implodes. Than it is up to the Europeans and the US to seize the opportunity and support secessionist movements everywhere in Russia, to split the Russian empire into as many small nations as possible.

Sankt Petersburg would be much better off as a small independent state joining the Baltic and Scandinavian countries as a prosperous Western nation.

Kaliningrad would be a perfect start for the anti-Putin pro-West Russians to have their own country, which could be like a Taiwan.

This is why I stress in my previous writing that when it comes to Finland, it's not the demography that is particularly sexy, it is the land area and the coastline that will prove beneficial.

Also, I have stressed that attacking Finland, the Baltics and basically NATO is only possible once the U.S. is out of the equation.

Even without the US, an attack on Finland would be suicidal for Russia. Finland has prepared its defenses for many decades, and the Scandinavian countries as well as the UK will come to its defense for sure. Finland is both in the EU and in NATO now, so an attack on it would not go unpunished. The nordic countries alone have the capabilities to decimate the Russian navy and air force, as they are much more technologically capable.

Imagine what would happen to Russia’s Northern Fleet in a war against Sweden and Norway, if they alredy lost a third of their Black Sea fleet against Ukraine, which has no navy and barely has an air force.
 

FiReFTW

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I'm not suggesting that they don't have the right to make their own choice. I'm suggesting that countries that want to be part of an alliance ought to abide by the conditions of the alliance (2% of gdp towards the defense spending). Otherwise, the alliance should not have any problems abandoning that nation during their time of need.

It's objectively true that USA has had to fund Europe's defense for far too long, while the majority of those nations reneg on their responsibilities.

I just said that everyone can choose what country to send money too, for example if they want to send money and weapons to Ukraine or not, that should be each country's choice and should have no effect on anything, otherwise it's plain oppression not a democracy.

For example if I personally would be the leader of an European country I would not send 1 cent to Ukraine because I simply have nothing to do with Ukraine, it's not a member of EU or NATO or anything, also it's a highly corrupt country, and I have no gain from helping them.

I do agree that countries should put 2% or more GDP towards defence, that is infact useful for your country and the whole alliance in order to make it better prepared to face possible threats and overall safer, that should be the norm and absolutely necessary otherwise it's true that it's double standards looking for the umbrella of protection yet not paying your due.
 

MaciekRS

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For example if I personally would be the leader of an European country I would not send 1 cent to Ukraine because I simply have nothing to do with Ukraine, it's not a member of EU or NATO or anything, also it's a highly corrupt country, and I have no gain from helping them.
Easy to say when someone is sitting in the middle of Europe. But you know, someone has to be at the border

And would you prefer to have Ukraine or Russia as a neighbour?
 
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Relic

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After debating through the night on Monday, early Tuesday morning the United States 🇺🇸 Senate voted 70-29 (with one absentee) in favour of a $95 Billion usd foreign aid bill, which contains $60.1 Billion usd for Ukraine. Both party leaders in the Senate, Schumer and McConell, voted for the bill.

The bill will now be sent to the House of Representatives for passage. If Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson refuses to table the bill with his ultra-thin majority, Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies will force a vote using a tactic called "discharge petition." The bill, which contains $14.6 Billion usd in aid for Israel and $8 Billion usd in aid for Taiwan, as well as billions of dollars for the increase in U.S. artillery shells production, is expected to have enough support to pass in the House and be signed into law by President Biden, when tabled.

One step closer to the funding Ukraine needs (in conjunction with EU aid) to keep its war effort up for another 2 years, and continue to lay waste to Putin's land army.

 
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Gary

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Peace, freedom and tranquility will come, once General Syrski sends what remains of the Ukrainian army into mindless slaughter, thereby freeing the Ukrainian people from being hostage to the Ukrainian army.
 

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Russia used an advanced hypersonic missile for the first time in recent strike, Ukraine claims​


By Brad Lendon, CNN
Updated 1:24 AM EST, Tue February 13, 2024

1707834406798.png

In this image taken from video released by Russian Defense Ministry in 2022, a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile is launched by a Russian navy frigate from the Barents Sea.


CNN —
Ukraine claims it has evidence Russia fired an advanced hypersonic missile – one that experts say is almost impossible to shoot down – for the first time in the almost 2-year-old war.

The government-run Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise said in a Telegram post that debris recovered after a February 7 attack on the Ukrainian capital pointed to the use of a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile by the Russian military.

“Markings on the parts and fragments, the identification of components and parts, and the features of the relevant type of weapon” point to the first-ever use of the Zircon in combat, said the institute, which is part of Ukraine’s Justice Ministry.

The Telegram post was accompanied by a video showing dozens of pieces of debris believed to be from the new missile.

Ukrainian authorities reported four people were killed and 38 others injured in Kyiv during the February 7 attacks, but no casualties have been directly attributed to the alleged Zircon missile.


There was also no mention of the launch platform for the missile, though previous reports in Russian state media say it has been deployed on a warship.

Experts say the Zircon, if it lives up to what the Russian government says about it, is a formidable weapon.

Its hypersonic speed makes it invulnerable to even the best Western missile defenses, like the Patriot, according to the United States-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA).

The alliance says its speed has been put at Mach 8, or almost 9,900 kilometers per hour (6,138 mph). Hypersonic is defined as any speed above Mach 5 (3,836 mph).

“If that information is accurate, the Zircon missile would be the fastest in the world, making it nearly impossible to defend against due to its speed alone,” the alliance says on its website.

The site also points to the missile’s plasma cloud as another “valuable” feature.

“During flight, the missile is completely covered by a plasma cloud that absorbs any rays of radio frequencies and makes the missile invisible to radars. This allows the missile to remain undetected on its way to the target,” it says.

Additionally, the MDAA says the Zircon is “a maneuvering anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile” with a range of somewhere between 500 and 1,000 kilometers (310 to 620 miles).

When the Russian navy frigate Admiral Gorshkov set out on a combat mission last January, leader Vladimir Putin boasted about the Zircon missiles the ship was carrying.


“It has no analogues in any country in the world,” Putin said, according to a report from the state media agency TASS. “I am sure that such powerful weapons will reliably protect Russia from potential external threats and will help ensure the national interests of our country,” he added.

If Russia has introduced the new weapon into the conflict, it could mean trouble for a Ukrainian air defense already straining to repel Moscow’s aerial attacks.

For instance, in that February 7 attack in which the Zircon was allegedly used, three Iskander ballistic missiles and four Kh-22 cruise missiles fired by Russian forces evaded attempts to bring them down, data from Ukraine’s air force shows.

Although air defenses have brought down Iskander missiles in the past, it is believed that Ukraine has failed to intercept a single Kh-22 in almost two years of war. Speaking in December, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said that Russia had fired almost 300 Kh-22s so far in the war.

Ukraine’s air defenses did have some success during the February 7 attack, bringing down 26 of 29 Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 type cruise missiles, all three Kalibr cruise missiles and 15 of 20 Shahed drones fired by Russia. But those are less-advanced than the Zircon.

Despite that, analysts caution not to exaggerate the impact the use of the Zircon could have on the war as a whole.

As it is a new – and expensive – technology, one question is, how many has Russia produced?

A key “consideration is Russia’s ability to produce and field a capability like Zircon at scale, especially as the program will compete for financial and other resources with priorities like rebuilding the Russian ground forces,” Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, wrote last year after the Admiral Gorshkov allegedly deployed with Zircons aboard.

CNN’s Svitlana Vlasova, Mariya Knight, Andrew Carey and Jack Guy contributed to this report.





@Kartal1 @Sanchez If true then this is a very interesting development, it means Zircon actually got through MIM-104's shield. Unlike the fake hypersonic Kinzal.
 

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