Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Relic]

Andrew Perpetua's visually documented and geolocated losses for Russia and Ukraine, Sunday, April 28th.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784822850337062967

 

[Ryder]

That's clearly not how it works, when the country is in an economic downturn, inequality keeps on rising, youth unemployment and inflation is the name of the game, the last thing you want (as a government) to is borrow money...to send it to other countries.

This is what the average Americans see, whether the Europeans accept it or not.




Holy shit and I thought you couldn't be even more comical. But then again being dumbassery has always been your stock in trade for the last year or so.

In the 50s the average American can afford:

1. A house (or two) with huge lawn, not a rented room
2. A family usually with two kids or more
3. A car that they actually own, and not having to worry about getting confiscated by creditors.

For the modern Americans this isn't achievable for most of them. This is why you're seeing van culture popping out and degeneracy spread as youths are no longer willing to have families (and the responsibilities that comes with it).

You mention smartphones and computers as if the Americans actually progress LOL

In the 50s, the average American family looks like this

The car
The house (with a huge lawn and car park, interior bathroom, TVs and an integrated sink etc)
and even the Tricycle

Is something that an average Indonesian family couldn't comprehend

No car (what's a car ? LOL)
Bathroom ? Go to the nearest river


See the difference?

And now talking about smartphones and computers. The 21st-century Indonesian family has TV, Computers and every kid as young as 10 now has smartphones. So it's either Indonesia has advanced very rapidly (I don't think so) or the Americans have lost that wealth gap that they usually enjoy during their golden era.

Western Economic system that is full of inequality.

Communism was seen as the next thing but that led to dictatorships and poverty.

Capitalism you need to money to survive while communism you will just starve to death.

Western economic system is hailed as the best thing ever but more you research and dive down into it its full inequality with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer not to mention how governments are puppets to various corporations and companies.

Lets look at interest in particular. Interest is nothing more than slavery that is used to trap people into ever cycle of debt then you have finance which is another word for interest where people trap themselves into buying cars and paying enormous prices for it.

Lets not forget the taxation system the average citizen cant declare 100$ they will easily fine him even throw a person into prison for not paying taxes while the rich get all sorts of tax breaks.

Look at the taxes we get charged like gst, carbon tax, luxury tax so on so on.

But yeah politicians expect the working class and lower classes to send their sons to fight their wars abroad.

 

[Gary]

Except that the US has a very low unemployment rate, and those Trumpists that have fallen for this type of propaganda are not young at all.

They are people frustrated with their declining health due to old age and with the current culture trends, and they are venting their frustration on anything their master tells them to.

And yes, there are also some young Trumpists who just went with the trend, but Trumpism is more present in older people.

And how is that wrong ? Age 65 these people have seen a lot and with that flight hours they could actually compare what's the state of affairs of current America and the America they grew up (the 50s and 60s).

They clearly know something is missing.

This is just not true. Modern Americans can easily afford nicer homes and cars than their grandparents. The problem is that a lot of people have made very bad life choices, such as doing drugs and taking on debt when young, and this is why they fail miserably in their life.

Hello

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/25/will-americans-ever-be-able-to-afford-to-buy-a-home-again.html

People who are hardworking and disciplined with their life can easily make it in the US. This is why people from all over the world want to emigrate there. Not because there is a lack of opportunity as you try to present it.

Umm no, the thing has to do with the gap between the rise of cost of ownership and inflation.


The offshoring of jobs to Asia creates a lot of unemployment, while inflation runs rampant...and you have an overworked, overstressed Americans. The trend in house ownership, the decline of young adults starting a family is a clear symptom of this. People could no longer afford shit.

Indonesia has advanced very rapidly for sure. The wealth gap between wealthy and emerging countries has shrunk a lot in the last 70 years.

Of course, the US is much wealthier and there are much better opportunities for average Americans to build wealth than there are for the average Indonesian, but the wealth and opportunity gap is lower than in the past.

This doesn’t mean that Americans have it worse than seventy years ago. It is just that the growth in the quality of life has been lower in developed countries than in developing ones, which is just the natural way of things.

That's not even the point mate, just because they have smartphones, TV and shit doesn't mean that their life quality is any better than their elders. It's just they're enjoying the products of their era the same way their elders once had access to radio when the elders of those elderly once had not.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785089875533787241

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785155223083733104

That implies that they actually have a huge reserve behind them that has yet to be exhausted in combat. Let's see how's the Ukrainian mobilization goes.

So Russia has :

• A huge manpower fresh manpower yet to be used
• A huge advantage in artillery and ammo
• increasingly accurate and timely ISR
• increasingly competent air force with precision munitions

 

[Gary]

Everything I said in this piece last year debating @contricusc (27 March 2023)eventually manifested in 2024.

I am ALWAYS right.

It doesn't have to be a 1:1 comparison. Yes, there's no American dead yet in Ukraine but that's not even remotely the point. If this war grind on, the Americans (either they got directly affected or not) will start questioning their entire involvement in the war.

You see, in 2001 in Afghanistan, no one in the U.S will ever imagine that in 20 years time they have to flee the country humiliated...at the time the general wisdom is, we got it under control, we just put a loyalist government in Afghanistan and they're going to fight there instead of us, what could possibly go wrong ? The same naiveness shown today for what appears to be a young war.

It depends on the Russian willingness to extend the war and for how long, wait long enough and the advantage will be Russia's. In 10,20, 30 years time the world is going to change a lot. No one will guarantee that every U.S administration will be the likes of Biden and no one could absolutely guarantee that domestic U.S opinion will not change the political outlook of the states. Wait long enough and the people in the States consciously or provoked will start asking "why are we spending so much in Ukraine ?, instead of healthcare (maybe)?" and then this will roll and roll until it turns into a very big political snowball that the U.S government could no longer dodge.

The thing is for Russia, whatever the scenario is, the West is never in the game of Endurance, they got tired, bored, lose interests and so on.




U.S losses is only piecemeal in number, but again persist long enough (add that to domestic problems) and people will start looking for answer. People will start dumb question like, why are we spending so much abroad, and not build schools instead blah blah blah...and in return the Politicians (who needed their vote) will naturally start to cease support gradually.

Time and time again, Its not the battlefield victory that U.S/West antagonist should be looking at, its the defeat at home that they should go for. Its not going to be a 1:1 comparison yes, but the underlying problem is the same. No one understands this better than Vo Nguyen Giap of Viet Nam or Mullah Omar of Afghan Taliban. Putin himself a student of history, should go check this out.

It is the war in the middle east started by an unprovoked attack on U.S soil that gave rise to populist like Trump in the first place, what are the chance that people got tired their tax money is used for a war that has nothing to do with an actual attack on U.S soil ? Maybe another fertile ground for another Trump style populist ?


Motivated yes, but the numbers will not be their advantage...in Afghanistan and Viet Nam the two underdogs understand their weakness and goes underground, Ukraine on the other hand is going head on knee to knee which will gradually scrape their overall power.

Motivation on Ukraine's side would only be effective with continuing support by their Western allies, lose that support and there's no point for Igor to be motivated because there's nothing left to fight Russia with.

You can boast motivation aloud, but in the face of bad prospects, people will start looking elsewhere, in Syria the refugee seeker started gradually from a very popular and energetic uprising.

In the end, the fighting men in Ukraine does have the prospect of a long war with Russia or leave the country and find safe place for him and his family to stay. And the family part is why many fighting men in Syria left their country. In the Battlefield they're just as motivated, but enter the family safety equation and the whole motivation started to collapse..and I bet people in Ukraine are no different.

The war is like a year long and Bali is getting flooded by men of fighting age from Ukraine (and Russia)

so much so we are planning to stop issuing Visa

Trouble in paradise as Bali loses patience with Russians, Ukrainians fleeing war | CNN

With its balmy beaches, laid back lifestyles and holiday vibe, the tropical paradise of Bali has much to offer any world weary traveler -- let alone those fleeing a war zone.

edition.cnn.com

Yes, that's why they only likely have to wait long enough until that very support scraped thin enough over time. They have the industry, and more importantly population to sustain this. 142 million vs 40 million its very clear who will run out of men early. Especially when the casualty ratio on both side are humongous.

Just in case anyone forget, Ukraine is 2nd rate in importance to other more pressing issues (like Taiwan).

But yes I acknowledge in the end it is yet to be seen how the Russian siloviki enforce its will on keeping society bend under its whim to continuously go to war...but if they do (and they can) and they wait patiently long enough its a natural advantage for them.




The war in Afghanistan and Viet Nam is also tiny both from monetary and manpower and loss perspective, but their gradual tiredness is always there and it repeats again and again, either in Viet Nam, Afghanistan, Iraq and later on probably Ukraine.

1. Domestic issue takes its toll
2. Ukrainian men will eventually sideline nation for family

‘Why should I return to fight?’ Ukrainian men living abroad say

A ruling is making men return to Ukraine if they need to replace their passports - but then they risk being drafted into the army

www.telegraph.co.uk

A child needs a father,” he said.​

​

Now, he could be stranded after a controversial law stripped fighting age men abroad of consular assistance. Those between 18- and 60-years-old will only be able to replace their passports in the Ukraine, meaning they will have to return to the country - and risk the draft.​

​

The move, designed to help plug a dire manpower gap in the country’s armed forces, addresses long-running tensions over men who managed to evade a ban on foreign travel for the duration of the war. But critics, including some serving soldiers, have warned it may be unconstitutional and will simply encourage those who are already overseas to stay away. Poland has suggested it could even deport Ukrainian men back to their home country for conscription.​

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For his part, Vladimir, 39, will not be heeding the call and returning: “It was morally difficult [to leave] but I decided my family needs me. I don’t feel any kind of pressure from family or friends to go back. My mates all understand my situation.”​

 

[Relic]

Israel is retiring its Patriot Batteries in favour of more advanced Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow 3 air defense systems, after a surge of funding from the United States in the recently passed aid supplemental.

This would be the perfect opportunity to get Ukraine the additional Patriot Batteries they've been asking for. Whether sold to Ukraine directly, or purchased by USA for direct transfer to Ukraine, Ukraine is looking for a total of 7 Patriot batteries to compliment their SAMP/T Battery, as well as their tier 2 and tier 3 systems such as NASAMS, IRIS-T SLM / SLS, FrankenSAM, Skynex, Crotale, Gepard, Avenger, etc...

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-to-mothball-patriot-air-defenses-after-decades-of-mostly-gathering-dust/

 

[Relic]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785089875533787241

This is pure cope and disinformation.

1. The recent U.S. aid package literally included funding specifically for an auditor general to oversee the weapons transfers to Ukraine to ensure they were being procured and used appropriately.

2. The claim from the American Right is that approximately $40 million usd "went missing" due to corruption, out of more than $100 Billion usd worth of military aid and macroeconomic funding for Ukraine. Furthermore, the macrofinancial loans that were included in the latest package specifically state that they CANNOT be used to pay Ukrainian state pensions, something the American Right was concerned about.

Spartz knows very well what she's doing. "We don't know how our money is being used" is BS designed to create doubt in America regarding the legitimacy of Ukraine's cause. She knows very well that the overwhelming majority of that money is being used to pay a conscript / volunteer military and it's associated support structure, that is 4-5x the size of the regular Ukrainian military during peace time. Ukraine is spending nearly 50% of its federal budget to support the war effort and USA / European Union funds are keeping the government solvent while they they do that.

Spartz is simply a Russian stooge, flapping her gums to make money and gain clout. She's a moron, and the exact type of Right Wing clown that the Patrick Bet David Podcast thoroughly enjoys propping up and introducing to the mainstream via their YouTube audience.

 

[contricusc]

And how is that wrong ? Age 65 these people have seen a lot and with that flight hours they could actually compare what's the state of affairs of current America and the America they grew up (the 50s and 60s).

At 65 years of age, people see their youth through the effect of nostalgia. They remember the good old days when they were young, healthy and strong and had an active life, and by association they think everyhting was better back in the day.

I know many older people in Romania who are nostalgic for the communist times, and they say it was better back than, when in reality we lived in total poverty compared to what it is now. You really can’t take seriously the opinion of 65 year olds when they speak about the time of their youth.

Old men remember with nostalgia the time when they could get an erection without taking pills, and they think everything was better back then because of that. The truth is it was not.

Umm no, the thing has to do with the gap between the rise of cost of ownership and inflation.

Housing is in a bubble because of the long period of low interest rates. This has allowed people to bid up housing prices to extreme levels, and this is why they are unaffordable now. All it takes is for a prolonged period of high interest rates to deflate the hausing bubble (it will be painful for many but it is necessary to correct the mistakes of the past).

Also, people need to adjust their wants to their possibilities. Many people complain about not affording a house because they want to live above their means in a wealthier neighborhood than what they can afford. Poor people should look for cheaper houses in less desirable areas, but people today are so entitled that they think they deserve anything.

Entitlement is the biggest differentiator between now and seventy years ago. Today’s Americans are much more entitled and believe they should have everything they want without putting the effort, and this is why they keep complaining while making bad life choices like doing drugs, choosing a bad education and taking on student debt so they can party for four years in a luxury five stars university.

The offshoring of jobs to Asia creates a lot of unemployment, while inflation runs rampant...and you have an overworked, overstressed Americans. The trend in house ownership, the decline of young adults starting a family is a clear symptom of this. People could no longer afford shit.

It is just that the unemployment is very low in the US. You have a lot of service sector jobs now, instead of thr factory jobs of the past. People have easier jobs now, which contributes to the higher quality of life.

The decline in young adults starting a family is more cultural than economical, because decades of extreme feminism have turn many American women into undesirable harpies who want to trap men into a divorce and milk them of child support money. This has resulted in many men going MGTOW as they want to avoid the risk of financial ruin that is modern marriage.

That's not even the point mate, just because they have smartphones, TV and shit doesn't mean that their life quality is any better than their elders. It's just they're enjoying the products of their era the same way their elders once had access to radio when the elders of those elderly once had not.

Technological advances do matter and they improve the quality of life. Just like when people replaced horse-buggies with cars they had a boost in quality of life, the same happened when people replaced radios with computers, smartphones and smart TVs.

The access to affordable high tech products is something unseen before in the history of mankind, and this has contributed greatly to the increase in standard of living everywhere. Just by having a smartphone and an internet connection people can now access tons of educational material and they can self-grow if they are willing to put the effort. You couldn’t do that in the past.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785255117064659362

US Treasury department eases sanctions against 10 largest Russian banks

Transactions with Russian banks for payments for energy, including oil, gas and timber, were allowed.


The United States no longer believes that Ukraine will win the war. And they are giving a signal of softening to the Russians.

@Ryder @TR_123456 @Anmdt @Yasar_TR @Zafer @Mis_TR_Like @Kartal1

 

[Zafer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785255117064659362

US Treasury department eases sanctions against 10 largest Russian banks

Transactions with Russian banks for payments for energy, including oil, gas and timber, were allowed.


The United States no longer believes that Ukraine will win the war. And they are giving a signal of softening to the Russians.

@Ryder @TR_123456 @Anmdt @Yasar_TR @Zafer @Mis_TR_Like @Kartal1

They probably want to slow down the coming of a BRICS currency.

 

[Ryder]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785255117064659362

US Treasury department eases sanctions against 10 largest Russian banks

Transactions with Russian banks for payments for energy, including oil, gas and timber, were allowed.


The United States no longer believes that Ukraine will win the war. And they are giving a signal of softening to the Russians.

@Ryder @TR_123456 @Anmdt @Yasar_TR @Zafer @Mis_TR_Like @Kartal1

Remember the bullshit lie that Russia has ran out of missiles and jets.

All they ever did was create a false illusion to the Ukrainian cause.

Did more harm than good.

 

[contricusc]

Total: 480 medium / long range strike ballistic and cruise missiles.

This is a little over 9 missiles per week, which means Ukraine could do on average a serious strike every week if the missiles you mentioned are delivered.

Considering that many of the missiles will be available only after the F16s are operating, it means that the strike capability of Ukraine will be greatly improved in the second half of the year.

 

[Samba]

undirect goal..US have no reasons to help UA directly, but undirectly, what happens today already waited by the US since long time a go

I doubt this war will weaken Russia. They had no idea if their fighters would do fine against western systems, now they know.
They had no idea how capable their systems, now they know.
They did not know the soft spots of western systems, now they know.
They were not aware how big the economic effects would be, and what they can do to secure their money, now they know.

Russia has a lot more experience and knowledge than any of the European country than ever before.

 

[UkroTurk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785255117064659362

US Treasury department eases sanctions against 10 largest Russian banks

Transactions with Russian banks for payments for energy, including oil, gas and timber, were allowed.


The United States no longer believes that Ukraine will win the war. And they are giving a signal of softening to the Russians.

@Ryder @TR_123456 @Anmdt @Yasar_TR @Zafer @Mis_TR_Like @Kartal1

The aim of this action must be Decrease of tension due to usage of blocked Russian assets.


Kinda we charged you 5 billion but don't cry to much you can earn another 5 billion.
But anytime we could cut your breath.
So we are the boss and you are looser. We choose the ones who makes money on earth.

The US is now allowed to seize Russian state assets. How would that work?

The big U.S. aid package for Ukraine and other allies that President Joe Biden signed Wednesday also allows the administration to seize Russian state assets located in the U.S. and use them for the benefit of Kyiv.

apnews.com

 

[MaciekRS]

I doubt this war will weaken Russia. They had no idea if their fighters would do fine against western systems, now they know.
They had no idea how capable their systems, now they know.
They did not know the soft spots of western systems, now they know.
They were not aware how big the economic effects would be, and what they can do to secure their money, now they know.

Russia has a lot more experience and knowledge than any of the European country than ever before.

Yes, now they know.
Today on russia site topwar was an article in which they realize that Pakistan have more AVACS then Russia. And russia in the last 30 years lost capabilities to build new one.

And one of commentaries from russian
"Compared to the background of truly developed countries, they are of course backward, but this is a different question. If backward countries have already overtaken us in some respects, then where are we in relation to developed countries?"

https://en.topwar.ru/241343-sistema-pvo-pakistana-radiolokacionnye-sredstva-kontrolja-vozdushnogo-prostranstva.html

Remember that Ukraine even before the war was one of the poorest countries in Europe.

 

[Ecderha]

Long video
Avdiivka direction.
putin soldier long walk -> showing corpses of ruzzian soldiers there. There are many many of them

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785397616412356857

Video was analysed from proven internet WAR experts.
ruzzian solider walked ~440 meters and filmed dead ruzzian soliders in the video.
The dead count is 328

 

[Relic]

Norway Australia and Latvia have jumped on board the string of countries announcing new military aid packages for Ukraine .

Today Norway announced that they will send Ukraine $600 million usd worth of air defense support in 2024, along with $30 million usd in humanitarian aid. The air defense support is expected to come in the form of additional NASAMS systems and air defense interceptors.

Australia announced a new $65 million usd package for Ukraine that includes short range air defense systems, UAVs, generators, and personal protective equipment.

Meanwhile, Latvia announced that they will join Estonia in giving Ukraine 0.25% of their GDP in military aid in 2024 and beyond. They announced a new aid package today consisting of undisclosed air defense and enhanced UAV production.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-raise-2024-ukraine-donations-by-630-million-pm-says-2024-04-30/

Weiterleitungshinweis

Australia boosts military aid to Ukraine

Ukraine welcomes additional funding for drones and short-range air defense systems to fight Russian invasion

www.voanews.com

 

[Ecderha]

Unable to damage the Leopard tank back in Ukraine, ruzzians tried to bend the barrel of it on the square in Moscow to appear more defeated for may 9
parade
Pathetic...as always...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785149865774751800

 

[Relic]

This is a little over 9 missiles per week, which means Ukraine could do on average a serious strike every week if the missiles you mentioned are delivered.

Considering that many of the missiles will be available only after the F16s are operating, it means that the strike capability of Ukraine will be greatly improved in the second half of the year.

Keep in mind that these are only medium / long range strike weapons. They do not induced other capable medium range weapons such as JDAMs, AASMs, GMLRS, Grad rockets, Brimstone missiles, etc... Nor do they account for Ukrainian domestic missile production of Neptune and the revamping of S-200 missiles, because it would be pure speculation as to how many of those that Ukraine is actually currently producing.