Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

Don't even respond to him its best to ignore him, he has a lot of built up rage,anger and trauma against Russia, its more than obvious, I wouldn't want to know what some Russian did to him.

The Russians have imposed Communism on my county, and for this alone I wish for their total destruction as a country. They kept all of Eastern Europe in poverty for half a century with their evil doctrine, and they deserve to be punished for it. I stand with the Ukrainians in their fight for freedom against the Soviet oppressors and I wish them to destroy Russia as payback for all the evil they have done in Eastern Europe during the XX century.

 

[Woland]

lol, Ukraine had a population of around 40 million BEFORE the war, now there are around 12-15 million people who have fleed the country or are missing and displaced + all the casualties of the war so far.

There might be 25-28 million actual people in Ukraine as of now, 50% of which are women, and from the other 50% which is around 12-14 million a huge chunk of them are bellow 18 or over 55-60

Realistically Ukraine has maybe 3-4 million men of fighting age

Russia's population was 143 million not 146 million before the war with Ukraine, lets count around 250-300.000 casualties so far (im taking US numbers don't give me those BS Ukranian propaganda numbers lol), so we are left with 142.7 million people.

Discounting women and people bellow 18 or over 55-60 we are left with

around 25-28 million men of fighting age


Summary

Ukraine 3-4 million men of fighting age
Russia 25-28 million men of fighting age

Its not even close, if Ukraine will be stubborn enough and grind this war long enough, they will pretty much be doomed, and their future also

There are approximately 6.6 million Ukrainians who left Ukraine as of July 2024. Not according to Ukraine, but according to the countries where they reside. The only way to get from 6.6 million to your 12-15 million figure is by making up numbers out of thin air.

 

[Woland]

I have to admit, I'm also not particularly confident about a Ukrainian victory. You can talk about Kursk all you like but it doesn't change the fact that Russia started making pretty major gains in Ukraine once this operation got underway which leads me to suspect that Ukraine diverted a substantial amount of its forces that were defending the country for the invasion of Russia and no longer has enough to hold back the Russian advance.

People also need to remember that Russians generally don't give a crap about their territory. The reason they like having such a big amount of land despite not enough people to populate it and most of it being fairly underdeveloped is because it fits perfectly with the Russian strategy of defense in depth. To put it another way for the US to lose even one state to enemy action, even one as worthless as, say, Oregon would be a major catastrophe. But for Russia Kursk is mostly nothing. It could be a problem if Ukraine pushes deep enough south to flank the Russian forces occupying Ukraine and prevent them from being resupplied but it doesn't seem thus far like they have enough gas to make it happen.

Basically, Ukraine's strategy in Russia has multiple options:

1) Capture territory in the hopes of a stronger negotiating hand against Russia. Not really working all that well and Russia isn't falling for it.

2) Pivot down south in order to cut off Russian reinforcements. Again Russia seems to have anticipated that and this area is their main focus.

3) Attempt to sabotage enough of Russia's mission-critical infrastructure in order to hinder their war effort but as I said before, it doesn't seem like Ukraine has enough fuel in the tank to pull that off.

And to make it worse it doesn't look like even the Ukrainians themselves know what their actual objectives in Russia are. If I had to hazard a guess the initial idea was to prove to the Western powers, particularly the US, that Ukraine can still put up a fight and Russia is cowardly enough that there is no risk of escalation if NATO were to get involved a bit more seriously and provide more weapons and munitions to Ukraine but that didn't work - so now Ukraine is left wondering what now?

I want Ukraine to win from both a moral and self-interested perspective. I just don't see how anymore and I really hope the rest of the ex-USSR nations are paying attention and preparing themselves for the fallout.

I've written here previously what I think the reasons for the Kursk invasion are. Optics are incredibly important for ensuring support continues or increases. Polls show that American voters want Ukraine to win and view Russia very negatively. You can see the impact Kursk had below:

The US's aid to Ukraine is primarily divided into two components:
PDA - Presidential Drawdown Authority. Weaponry from existing American stocks, delivered very quickly
USAI - Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Orders for production from US defense industry, can take years to manufacture and arrive

After the resumption of US aid to Ukraine in April, only a significant portion of USAI was spent:
PDA: $2.9 billion
USAI: $9.7 billion

Remaining unspent:
PDA: $8.9 billion
USAI: $4.1 billion

We can also think of these numbers a bit differently, by amount of PDA delivered each year since the start of the war:
2022: $12.8 b
2023: $13 b
2024: $2.9 b

Essentially in 2024 Ukraine has received very little military aid from the US, with the vast majority of what was paid for being orders with US manufacturers that will take 2+ years to arrive. A substantial increase in military aid is worth more than Pokrovsk.

Of lesser importance but somewhat indicative of mood is the issue of lifting restrictions on the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows. The Biden administration is risk-averse and DC in general moves very slowly, but pressure by members of Congress on the Biden administration to lift restrictions has increased substantially. Finally, the Kursk invasion (and voters' perception) will certainly impact either Harris or Trump (in different ways).

 

[Anastasius]

I've written here previously what I think the reasons for the Kursk invasion are. Optics are incredibly important for ensuring support continues or increases. Polls show that American voters want Ukraine to win and view Russia very negatively. You can see the impact Kursk had below:

View attachment 70250

The US's aid to Ukraine is primarily divided into two components:
PDA - Presidential Drawdown Authority. Weaponry from existing American stocks, delivered very quickly
USAI - Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Orders for production from US defense industry, can take years to manufacture and arrive

After the resumption of US aid to Ukraine in April, only a significant portion of USAI was spent:
PDA: $2.9 billion
USAI: $9.7 billion

Remaining unspent:
PDA: $8.9 billion
USAI: $4.1 billion

We can also think of these numbers a bit differently, by amount of PDA delivered each year since the start of the war:
2022: $12.8 b
2023: $13 b
2024: $2.9 b

Essentially in 2024 Ukraine has received very little military aid from the US, with the vast majority of what was paid for being orders with US manufacturers that will take 2+ years to arrive. A substantial increase in military aid is worth more than Pokrovsk.

Of lesser importance but somewhat indicative of mood is the issue of lifting restrictions on the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadows. The Biden administration is risk-averse and DC in general moves very slowly, but pressure by members of Congress on the Biden administration to lift restrictions has increased substantially. Finally, the Kursk invasion (and voters' perception) will certainly impact either Harris or Trump (in different ways).

I made another comment after that one pointing out that Ukraine DOES seem to have found Russia's weak point. It has nothing to do with Western arms deliveries and restrictions (or lack thereof), relying on those to change the course of conflict is as dumb as the Germans waxing lyrical about wunderwaffes that will turn back the Allied offensive any day now. What Ukraine is doing now is making a gradual switch to asymmetrical warfare instead of trying to brute-force Russia in a head-to-head contest. I suspect the loss of territory on the Ukrainian front is part of that strategy, a tactical withdrawal to bait Russian forces into overstretching themselves and committing the same critical error that they made at the start of the war.

 

[SilverMachine]

The Russians have imposed Communism on my county, and for this alone I wish for their total destruction as a country.

And there it is.

As the other guy said, you're not really worth listening to on the topic, now that this is out there. Look, it's understandable - plenty of people in the region hate Russia, it's deserved in a lot of ways and it is what it is.

But when you're talking (seriously, apparently not just being facetious & trolling) about the desirable outcome here is the Russian Federation being either forcibly broken up into little powerless vassal states by NATO, or the same thing through internal civil war strife, like...I don't know what to tell you man. Every world leader opposing Russia & supporting Ukraine in this thing is going to disagree with that notion, because it's completely batshit.

But I suspect you know this.

 

[Agha Sher]

Novohrodivka, a town of 14.000 inhabitants, has been captured by Russia in 3/4 days. The towns infrastructure is completely intact and the Ukrainians were only able to offer sporadic resistance. With the capture of this important town, Russia has opened the road to Pokrovsk.

This is very concerning from Ukraine's pov. The Pokrovsk front is falling apart at a increasingly faster pace.

 

[TheInsider]

Novohrodivka is not that important but Pokrovks is. Pokrovsk is a railroad junction and a logistical hub.


Russian missile attacks get more frequent and they use more missiles and UAVs with greater success rates.

Ukraine needs an airforce. Ukraine also needs long-range missiles like JASSM that can hit missile and UAV factories or component, subsystem suppliers deep inside Russia. Russian production of long-range missiles, UAVs, and glide bombs has to be reduced.

 

[contricusc]

But when you're talking (seriously, apparently not just being facetious & trolling) about the desirable outcome here is the Russian Federation being either forcibly broken up into little powerless vassal states by NATO, or the same thing through internal civil war strife, like...I don't know what to tell you man. Every world leader opposing Russia & supporting Ukraine in this thing is going to disagree with that notion, because it's completely batshit.

The problem with those world leaders you are citing is that they have ulterior motives. They don’t want Russia completely destroyed because they fear that China will remain without a counterbalance in Asia. They already see Russia as being weak, and their main concern is now China.

Some US politicians, like Vivek Ramaswamy, have said it clearly that the US should offer Russia the chance to become its friend if they abandon their friendship with China.

Those politicians do not care about the interests of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. They only care about the interests of the US and maybe other big powers like France or the UK. For them, Russia is not a threat. But if Russia would collapse, they fear the risk of nuclear weapons getting in the wrong hands, and China becoming too dominant in Asia.

I don’t care about such concerns, because what I care for is the safety of Eastern Europe, and a collapsed Russia would be the perfect outcome in this case.

There is nothing batshit crazy about wishing safety for your region. I’d say it is a lot more crazy that those world leaders care more about their geopolitical games than about peace.

Under those world leaders actions we ended up with the first big land war in Europe since WW2. This is how well they understand Russia and geopolitics. They failed, so it is crazy to believe that they know what they are doing, or that they have good intentions. Those leaders made lots of wrong decisions, and continue to do so. If they were good leaders, they would have managed to secure peace, but they didn’t, so I discard their opinions as being the ones of fools or of people with bad intentions.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet-51" striking a Ukrainian T-64BV tank. The video was filmed on August 11 in the village of Cherkasskoye Porechny, Kursk region of Russia. The video is unique in that the drone strike was filmed by the Ukrainian and Russian armies simultaneously. At first glance, the Ukrainian T-64BV tank withstood the drone strike, apparently due to the tank's net protection, but after moving forward, it stopped and a fire started inside. It is unknown whether the crew managed to leave the tank, but as a result of the fire and detonation of ammunition, the tank was completely destroyed.

 

[Trakya_forever]

There will be no wimner of this war except for the planners. Both sides have already lost.