Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Woland]

I dont think I have seen that here lately, although it shouldn't be that hard for Ukrainians to show visual confirmed losses with dates because I dont see users doing it here anymore like they use to or they gave up. This user has no problem showing Ukrainian losses though 24/7.

You must have not read the post, since it included the link to visual confirmation, of both sides:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859024133327384844

Pokrovsk Raion Offensive Losses as of 2024-11-15 by @naalsio26

docs.google.com

 

[Relic]

All of that's great if the war drags out another 2 years or whatever. It won't, so...Ukraine needs pilots fucking pronto, right? The airframes aren't anything when you've got somewhere slightly north of a mere 12 guys training overseas, the success/pass rate of the last batch of Ukrainian pilots training in the west was...not high, and two of the three most senior of that last batch died basically the second they actually got into combat. A-grade Uke badass boss-level Tom Cruises.

This ain't it, chief. Wave keeps on-a-comin' crashing through regardless.

The F-16 is largely being adopted for the future of Ukraine, not the present. In the short term they'll fly air defence sorties and eventually they'll add long range strike missions, but their fleet (and crews) are being built up to arm a post war Ukraine that is aligned with NATO and uses NATO tactics and air power.

The writing is on the wall here. The war will almost certainly end with Ukraine conceding some territory, but Russia is not conquering Ukraine. It's simply not happening. They too inept and deeply lacking the equipment and logistics required to make that a reality. Therefore, the West continues to arm Ukraine with the weapons required to degrade the Russian Army, which is happening a face pace, but they are simultaneously helping build a Ukrainian military that will more aligned with the West in the post war era and is better prepared to defend itself from future Russian aggression towards them.

So yes, the F-16 capability will slowly and methodically grow throughout 2025 and beyond and the mandate of the pilots will grow as time passes.... But the bulk of their impact is being designed for a post war Ukraine. Pilot training is a lagging issue in every every single western country. The spots are deeply coveted and often purchased years in advance. This simply isn't WWII where Britain could say... "Hey Canada, we want you to start us a brand new training program for pilots. Our goal is to train 50,000 pilots from across the Commonwealth over 5 years. Get after it!". Ukrainian pilots are being fit into programs where there is room. Like I said, roughly 6 at time in Arizona and Montreal, with an unknown number in the Netherlands, Romania and Poland.

 

[Relic]

USA announced another military aid package for Ukraine today. This package, from Presidential Drawdown Authority is valued at $500 million usd and comes only days after the Americans announced a $725 million usd PDA package, a $988 million usd USAI package, a $266 milliin usd package to upgrade F-16s and approved a new $20 Billion usd loan. All of this has been part of Biden's promise to surge military aid to Ukraine prior to January 20th.

Today's package consists of the following:

- MaxxPro MRAPs
- HMMWVs
- Light Tactical Vehicles
- Vampire counter UAS Systems
- GMLRS / ATACMS (HIMARS)
- HARM Anti-Radiation Missiles
- Surveillance and Attack Drones
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- 105mm Artillery Shells
- Javelin Anti-Armor Missiles
- AT-4 Anti-Armor Rockets
- TOW Missiles (Bradleys)
- Small Arms
- Small Arms Munitions
- CBRN Equipment
- Demolitions Equipment
- Spare Parts / Training

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

The Defense Department announced a new presidential drawdown authority package to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

 

[SilverMachine]

The F-16 is largely being adopted for the future of Ukraine, not the present. In the short term they'll fly air defence sorties and eventually they'll add long range strike missions, but their fleet (and crews) are being built up to arm a post war Ukraine that is aligned with NATO and uses NATO tactics and air power.

Copium, pure and simple. Ukraine in NATO is fantasy for one, and secondly the F-16's a 40 year old airframe that Putin more than has equivalents of (and better, and in larger numbers).

It all sounds good, they're better having this stuff donated than not. But it doesn't move the needle one iota. If some shakey truce gets negotiated next year, Putin's not going to quake in his boots about breaking it down the line a decade from now or whatever due to Ukraine having...F-16s. This isn't 1991 and fighting Saddam or 98 in the Balkans, 20 or so 16s with pilots inexperienced with the platform 2 or 3 years from now is (nice/generous) nothing to get a victory boner over.

Also, to reiterate since too many people here seem to not get this: NATO's not letting Ukraine in. Not next year, not a decade from now, not ever with the regional dynamics the way they are now and have been for 30 years. Talk about it again when your grandkids are working-age, until then it ain't happening. Probably even then.

 

[Huelague]

Russia is overstretched and doesn’t need so much „Lebensraum“. Give it away. Look at Japan, living on some tiny islands. You can give some lands (Kyrill islands) to Japan peacefully. Or it will take them with force.

 

[Spitfire9]

Also, to reiterate since too many people here seem to not get this: NATO's not letting Ukraine in. Not next year, not a decade from now, not ever with the regional dynamics the way they are now and have been for 30 years. Talk about it again when your grandkids are working-age, until then it ain't happening. Probably even then.

The essence of security for Ukraine now (after Russia betrayed its recognition of Ukraine as a sovereign state) has to be a common defence security treaty with powerful states or alternatively membership of NATO. Without an agreement whereby another Russian attack on Ukraine will be crushed fairly quickly by Ukraine's guarantors, there will be no peace - just a period without hostilities until Russia chooses to break its word again on acknowledgement of Ukrainian sovereignty.

 

[Relic]

Copium, pure and simple. Ukraine in NATO is fantasy for one, and secondly the F-16's a 40 year old airframe that Putin more than has equivalents of (and better, and in larger numbers).

It all sounds good, they're better having this stuff donated than not. But it doesn't move the needle one iota. If some shakey truce gets negotiated next year, Putin's not going to quake in his boots about breaking it down the line a decade from now or whatever due to Ukraine having...F-16s. This isn't 1991 and fighting Saddam or 98 in the Balkans, 20 or so 16s with pilots inexperienced with the platform 2 or 3 years from now is (nice/generous) nothing to get a victory boner over.

Also, to reiterate since too many people here seem to not get this: NATO's not letting Ukraine in. Not next year, not a decade from now, not ever with the regional dynamics the way they are now and have been for 30 years. Talk about it again when your grandkids are working-age, until then it ain't happening. Probably even then.

I never said that Ukraine would be admitted into NATO. I specifically said "aligned" with NATO, because that is what will happen. Russia will negotiate in a clause that Ukraine can't join NATO and trigger Article 5... But that doesn't mean that the Ukrainian military won't work closely with NATO and align themselves with Western doctrine and tactics. They'll leave the war a NATO ally and that's ultimately a win for the West.

As far as the F-16 being old. The air frame is old, but it's highly upgradeable. The new block 70 Vipers are still being built and with the right weapons and systems are every bit as lethal as the majority of Russia's aircraft. They're more than capable combating Russia's SU-27s, Mig-29s, SU-34s, etc, which make up the bulk of Russia's Air Force and will continue to for the foreseeable future. Yes the Su-35 and the SU-57 are better aircraft but the goal was to upgrade Ukraine's Air Force from old Russian Mig-29s and SU-27s. That mission is being accomplished and Ukraine will fly an Force full of legit 4th generation fighters that are far superior to what they were flying previously.

 

[MaciekRS]

Frontline in Kursk region

 

[Woland]

@SilverMachine Ukraine in NATO is a negotiating position and ultimate goal for the future. Fundamentally what Ukraine needs are strong security guarantees, and a clear framework for the relationship between Ukraine and other countries for the future. Both Ukrainians and Americans now look at the Budapest Memorandum as a terribly thought-out agreement and have learned from it. A similarly weak agreement will not be accepted.

Ukraine already started signing security agreements with its allies, with 27 countries having already signed bilateral security agreements. Key among them, some ideas for a more defined, efficient and predictable relationship between the US and Ukraine can be found in the Stand With Ukraine Act, a crucial one being designating Ukraine a Major non-NATO Ally (a legal status that countries such as Israel and South Korea have).

 

[Soldier30]

Archival footage of an episode of a battle between Russian army special forces scouts and Ukrainian army units in the Serebryanskoye forestry. The video was filmed in the Luhansk region in the Krasnolimansk direction; it was not possible to establish which units were involved in the battle. Presumably, a Russian GM-94 hand-held multi-charge grenade launcher was used in the battle.

 

[blackjack]

You must have not read the post, since it included the link to visual confirmation, of both sides:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859024133327384844

Pokrovsk Raion Offensive Losses as of 2024-11-15 by @naalsio26

docs.google.com

You keep showing me that English is not your 1st language, maybe repeating myself would be a little bit easier for you to understand? Give me a 24 hour update of what losses Ukraine claims, news info where those claims came from (URLs are very important) for each post here. Than I can draw comparisons of what Ukraine has lost on that same date. Not some excel sheet with mixed up dates.

I'm not hiding anything. Here is Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed and geolocated losses for both Russia and Ukraine over the last 3 days. Both sides continue to face significant attrition.

Andrew Perpetua (@andrewperpetua.bsky.social)

Here are losses I could identify for yesterday. 162 💀 10337 👻 in 108 past days #SkullThrone Sources: losses.ukrdailyupdate.com

bsky.app

Andrew Perpetua (@andrewperpetua.bsky.social)

Here are losses I could identify for yesterday. 108 💀 10175 👻 in 107 past days #SkullThrone Sources: losses.ukrdailyupdate.com

bsky.app

Andrew Perpetua (@andrewperpetua.bsky.social)

Here are losses I could identify for the December 7th 112 💀 10067 👻 in 106 past days #SkullThrone Sources: losses.ukrdailyupdate.com

bsky.app

And below is the updated link to the Oryx list of destroyed, damaged and captured Russian and Ukrainian equipment. They continue to update their lists for both sides regularly.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Same comment applies above, you had the same problem before not giving me any estimated production what NATO can produce other than contracts.

 

[Oublious]

 

[SilverMachine]

I never said that Ukraine would be admitted into NATO. I specifically said "aligned" with NATO, because that is what will happen. Russia will negotiate in a clause that Ukraine can't join NATO and trigger Article 5... But that doesn't mean that the Ukrainian military won't work closely with NATO and align themselves with Western doctrine and tactics. They'll leave the war a NATO ally and that's ultimately a win for the West.

As far as the F-16 being old. The air frame is old, but it's highly upgradeable. The new block 70 Vipers are still being built and with the right weapons and systems are every bit as lethal as the majority of Russia's aircraft. They're more than capable combating Russia's SU-27s, Mig-29s, SU-34s, etc, which make up the bulk of Russia's Air Force and will continue to for the foreseeable future. Yes the Su-35 and the SU-57 are better aircraft but the goal was to upgrade Ukraine's Air Force from old Russian Mig-29s and SU-27s. That mission is being accomplished and Ukraine will fly an Force full of legit 4th generation fighters that are far superior to what they were flying previously.

"Aligned" with the West (and the U.S.'s fermenting/encouraging of things moving that way) is what got Ukraine invaded in the first place. That's not even a "Putin was right to do it" position, that's just an objective "that's why history went the way it did" position. Putin was both wrong to go in, and Ukraine's reality is getting a "fuck around and find out" lesson, both things can be (and are) true.

Either Ukraine's getting into NATO or they're not, there's no "kind of" in any pragmatic sense. Ukraine "aligned" with NATO isn't something Putin's going to accept, and frankly at this point probably shouldn't, in terms of any credible sustainable peace that puts Russian minds & interests at-ease over Western fucking-around on Russia's border. Negotiations are give-and-take, immoral as the reality may be, and part of Ukraine's "give" will most definitely be hitting the breaks on cozying up to Washington, London & Brussels.

Regarding the 16's, hey, good for them, Ukraine's joining the 1980s by 2027 or whatever. I'm genuinely happy for them. Regarding the war they're in though, it's not going to do jack in terms of the big-picture here.

 

[contricusc]

Ukraine "aligned" with NATO isn't something Putin's going to accept, and frankly at this point probably shouldn't, in terms of any credible sustainable peace that puts Russian minds & interests at-ease over Western fucking-around on Russia's border.

Putin will have no choice in this case. Ukraine will be aligned with NATO whether he likes it or not. Ukraine has decided to align with the West, and there is no turning back after this war. Putin lost Ukraine for good. What will be decided is just where the borders between Ukraine and Russia will be.

Sooner or later Ukraine will be in the EU and in NATO. It is just a question of time. It will take many years, probabaly a few decades, but it will happen. Russia will not be able to stop it, because this is what Ukrainians want.

 

[contricusc]

Russian incompetence is polluting the Black Sea:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1868254340961706237

Readovka media outlet reported: “According to preliminary data, a hole was formed in the hull due to strong waves, after which the ship broke in half and began to sink.”

One unconfirmed report stated: “Volgoneft-212 was built 55 years ago. It was originally a regular tanker, and in the 1990s it was shortened to ‘river-sea’ standards [meaning it could operate in both rivers and the sea].

“Everything was done in a hurry….they cut out the centre [of the vessel] and then welded the stern and bow, forming a huge seam in the middle. Today, this seam came apart after a powerful wave hit.”

 

[SilverMachine]

Putin will have no choice in this case. Ukraine will be aligned with NATO whether he likes it or not. Ukraine has decided to align with the West, and there is no turning back after this war. Putin lost Ukraine for good. What will be decided is just where the borders between Ukraine and Russia will be.

Sooner or later Ukraine will be in the EU and in NATO. It is just a question of time. It will take many years, probabaly a few decades, but it will happen. Russia will not be able to stop it, because this is what Ukrainians want.

Putin will have every choice in this case. Trump wants the war over, he's not big on NATO in the first place, and Ukraine's in a weaker negotiating position by the day.

Putin's morally in the wrong here, but his position hasn't changed. "Stop flirting with my border, you wouldn't tolerate me fermenting anti-Washington political movements in Canada and/or Mexico. Fuck off, Obama." Is what it was then. That's the same deal now. Of course Ukraine's never being Russia-aligned again, that goes without saying, but they will be the buffer zone between NATO and Russia that they have been since 91. Because the alternative is...this, and the west isn't willing to go further and escalate more than this over Ukraine, a country none of them cared about pre-2021. Ukraine's free to fight as best they can, war to the last Ukrainian, but that's it, that's the ceiling.

Putin's aware, and he can absolutely play the "remaining part of Ukraine stays Ukrainian, we don't advance further, America/European Union quits meddling in-country" card. It'll work, because A) we're pussies, and B) we don't care about Ukraine to half the extent we say we do, push comes to shove. When it's easy and it's just cash in an account and throwing Zelensky our hand-me-down kit, it's fine. End of the day though, Russia's still winning on the ground here, and there's no "kick this up a gear militarily" from our perspective so long as it's just Ukraine and not Poland. Putin goes further, he's having a bad day, but he won't, because he can't. He can beat Ukraine into submission as far as ceding the Donbass & Crimea and signing away NATO entry though, and ultimately that's what'll happen.

 

[contricusc]

He can beat Ukraine into submission as far as ceding the Donbass & Crimea and signing away NATO entry though, and ultimately that's what'll happen.

Ukraine will never sign away NATO entry. They won’t join NATO anytime soon, but the writing is on the wall that it will happen in the future. All it needs is a US president with balls and brains, and Putin or his successor will have to accept the inevitable. Putin couldn’t do anything about Finland joining NATO right on his border, and he won’t be able to do anything about Ukraine joining too, if the US will decide it must happen.

The thing is, he lost his influence in Ukraine and he will never get it back. He made the wrong gamble and he lost. Now that Ukrainians want to join the West, it is just a question of time before that happens.

And in the future, Russia will also lose Belarus. You simply cannot convince people to stay in poverty forever when right across the border they see prosperity. It may take decades for people to achieve freedom, but in the end they do.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the strike by the Russian FPV aircraft-type drone "Molniya-1" on the Ukrainian IFV YPR-765, produced in Holland. Technical information about the UAV "Molniya-1" in the link to the video in the comments to the video. YPR-765 was produced in Holland under license since 1974. It is not currently used by Holland. The video was filmed in the Donbass in the Toretsk direction. Presumably, the Ukrainian IFV YPR-765 was abandoned by the crew.

 

[Soldier30]

Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drones A-22 attacked the Russian building of the OMON "AKHMAT-Grozny" in the Chechen Republic in the city of Grozny. The strike was carried out using a Ukrainian light aircraft Aeroprakt A-22, converted into a heavy kamikaze drone. The Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat aircraft has been produced by the Kyiv company "Aeroprakt" since 1999. The A-22 Foxbat drone can fly according to a given program, using satellite navigation, usually the flight is at a low altitude, the route is built in such a way as to bypass air defense zones. The modification of the A-22L2 aircraft is lightweight, which allows it to be used as a drone at a range of up to 2000 km, at a cruising speed of 130 km / h and equipped with additional fuel tanks. The estimated mass of explosives on board the aircraft is about 100 kg. Judging by the fact that the drones reached their target, the air defense areas were bypassed, and in Grozny, at the site of the drone strike, GPS signal distortion was not used.

 

[Fuzuli NL]

Russia to mass-produce new hypersonic ballistic missiles, Putin says​

Moscow will begin large-scale manufacturing of Oreshnik missiles soon “to protect the security of Russia and our allies,” president announces.

Russia first used the Oreshnik missile to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro late last month. | POOL photo by Gavrill Grigorov/AFP via Getty Images
December 16, 2024


By Ketrin Jochecová

Russia will launch the serial production of its new powerful Oreshnik missiles in the "near future," Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday.

"In the near future, serial production of such systems should be ensured to protect the security of Russia and our allies," said Putin in a speech at the Russian Defense Ministry's final board meeting of the year on Monday, which was publicly broadcast.

Russia first used the Oreshnik missile to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro late last month in response to Kyiv’s use of long-range missiles provided by France, the United States and the United Kingdom to strike targets within Russia.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said last week that he had asked Putin to provide him with the new missiles, and Russia agreed to supply Oreshniks "for free."

The Russian leader had previously said the new missiles fly at 10 times the speed of sound and cannot be intercepted by air defense systems.

He also said Oreshniks reduce the need for nuclear weapons, in a move to downplay potential nuclear escalation in the war against Ukraine.

However, during the same defense meeting on Monday, Putin also noted that Russia "needs to maintain the development of strategic nuclear forces," and "keep non-strategic nuclear forces in combat readiness."

Russia to mass-produce new hypersonic ballistic missiles, Putin says

Moscow will begin large-scale manufacturing of Oreshnik missiles soon “to protect the security of Russia and our allies,” president announces.

www.politico.eu