Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Woland]

I dont think I have seen that here lately, although it shouldn't be that hard for Ukrainians to show visual confirmed losses with dates because I dont see users doing it here anymore like they use to or they gave up. This user has no problem showing Ukrainian losses though 24/7.

You must have not read the post, since it included the link to visual confirmation, of both sides:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1859024133327384844

Pokrovsk Raion Offensive Losses as of 2024-11-15 by @naalsio26

docs.google.com

 

[Relic]

All of that's great if the war drags out another 2 years or whatever. It won't, so...Ukraine needs pilots fucking pronto, right? The airframes aren't anything when you've got somewhere slightly north of a mere 12 guys training overseas, the success/pass rate of the last batch of Ukrainian pilots training in the west was...not high, and two of the three most senior of that last batch died basically the second they actually got into combat. A-grade Uke badass boss-level Tom Cruises.

This ain't it, chief. Wave keeps on-a-comin' crashing through regardless.

The F-16 is largely being adopted for the future of Ukraine, not the present. In the short term they'll fly air defence sorties and eventually they'll add long range strike missions, but their fleet (and crews) are being built up to arm a post war Ukraine that is aligned with NATO and uses NATO tactics and air power.

The writing is on the wall here. The war will almost certainly end with Ukraine conceding some territory, but Russia is not conquering Ukraine. It's simply not happening. They too inept and deeply lacking the equipment and logistics required to make that a reality. Therefore, the West continues to arm Ukraine with the weapons required to degrade the Russian Army, which is happening a face pace, but they are simultaneously helping build a Ukrainian military that will more aligned with the West in the post war era and is better prepared to defend itself from future Russian aggression towards them.

So yes, the F-16 capability will slowly and methodically grow throughout 2025 and beyond and the mandate of the pilots will grow as time passes.... But the bulk of their impact is being designed for a post war Ukraine. Pilot training is a lagging issue in every every single western country. The spots are deeply coveted and often purchased years in advance. This simply isn't WWII where Britain could say... "Hey Canada, we want you to start us a brand new training program for pilots. Our goal is to train 50,000 pilots from across the Commonwealth over 5 years. Get after it!". Ukrainian pilots are being fit into programs where there is room. Like I said, roughly 6 at time in Arizona and Montreal, with an unknown number in the Netherlands, Romania and Poland.

 

[Relic]

USA announced another military aid package for Ukraine today. This package, from Presidential Drawdown Authority is valued at $500 million usd and comes only days after the Americans announced a $725 million usd PDA package, a $988 million usd USAI package, a $266 milliin usd package to upgrade F-16s and approved a new $20 Billion usd loan. All of this has been part of Biden's promise to surge military aid to Ukraine prior to January 20th.

Today's package consists of the following:

- MaxxPro MRAPs
- HMMWVs
- Light Tactical Vehicles
- Vampire counter UAS Systems
- GMLRS / ATACMS (HIMARS)
- HARM Anti-Radiation Missiles
- Surveillance and Attack Drones
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- 105mm Artillery Shells
- Javelin Anti-Armor Missiles
- AT-4 Anti-Armor Rockets
- TOW Missiles (Bradleys)
- Small Arms
- Small Arms Munitions
- CBRN Equipment
- Demolitions Equipment
- Spare Parts / Training

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

The Defense Department announced a new presidential drawdown authority package to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

 

[SilverMachine]

The F-16 is largely being adopted for the future of Ukraine, not the present. In the short term they'll fly air defence sorties and eventually they'll add long range strike missions, but their fleet (and crews) are being built up to arm a post war Ukraine that is aligned with NATO and uses NATO tactics and air power.

Copium, pure and simple. Ukraine in NATO is fantasy for one, and secondly the F-16's a 40 year old airframe that Putin more than has equivalents of (and better, and in larger numbers).

It all sounds good, they're better having this stuff donated than not. But it doesn't move the needle one iota. If some shakey truce gets negotiated next year, Putin's not going to quake in his boots about breaking it down the line a decade from now or whatever due to Ukraine having...F-16s. This isn't 1991 and fighting Saddam or 98 in the Balkans, 20 or so 16s with pilots inexperienced with the platform 2 or 3 years from now is (nice/generous) nothing to get a victory boner over.

Also, to reiterate since too many people here seem to not get this: NATO's not letting Ukraine in. Not next year, not a decade from now, not ever with the regional dynamics the way they are now and have been for 30 years. Talk about it again when your grandkids are working-age, until then it ain't happening. Probably even then.

 

[Huelague]

Russia is overstretched and doesn’t need so much „Lebensraum“. Give it away. Look at Japan, living on some tiny islands. You can give some lands (Kyrill islands) to Japan peacefully. Or it will take them with force.

 

[Spitfire9]

Also, to reiterate since too many people here seem to not get this: NATO's not letting Ukraine in. Not next year, not a decade from now, not ever with the regional dynamics the way they are now and have been for 30 years. Talk about it again when your grandkids are working-age, until then it ain't happening. Probably even then.

The essence of security for Ukraine now (after Russia betrayed its recognition of Ukraine as a sovereign state) has to be a common defence security treaty with powerful states or alternatively membership of NATO. Without an agreement whereby another Russian attack on Ukraine will be crushed fairly quickly by Ukraine's guarantors, there will be no peace - just a period without hostilities until Russia chooses to break its word again on acknowledgement of Ukrainian sovereignty.

 

[Relic]

Copium, pure and simple. Ukraine in NATO is fantasy for one, and secondly the F-16's a 40 year old airframe that Putin more than has equivalents of (and better, and in larger numbers).

It all sounds good, they're better having this stuff donated than not. But it doesn't move the needle one iota. If some shakey truce gets negotiated next year, Putin's not going to quake in his boots about breaking it down the line a decade from now or whatever due to Ukraine having...F-16s. This isn't 1991 and fighting Saddam or 98 in the Balkans, 20 or so 16s with pilots inexperienced with the platform 2 or 3 years from now is (nice/generous) nothing to get a victory boner over.

Also, to reiterate since too many people here seem to not get this: NATO's not letting Ukraine in. Not next year, not a decade from now, not ever with the regional dynamics the way they are now and have been for 30 years. Talk about it again when your grandkids are working-age, until then it ain't happening. Probably even then.

I never said that Ukraine would be admitted into NATO. I specifically said "aligned" with NATO, because that is what will happen. Russia will negotiate in a clause that Ukraine can't join NATO and trigger Article 5... But that doesn't mean that the Ukrainian military won't work closely with NATO and align themselves with Western doctrine and tactics. They'll leave the war a NATO ally and that's ultimately a win for the West.

As far as the F-16 being old. The air frame is old, but it's highly upgradeable. The new block 70 Vipers are still being built and with the right weapons and systems are every bit as lethal as the majority of Russia's aircraft. They're more than capable combating Russia's SU-27s, Mig-29s, SU-34s, etc, which make up the bulk of Russia's Air Force and will continue to for the foreseeable future. Yes the Su-35 and the SU-57 are better aircraft but the goal was to upgrade Ukraine's Air Force from old Russian Mig-29s and SU-27s. That mission is being accomplished and Ukraine will fly an Force full of legit 4th generation fighters that are far superior to what they were flying previously.

 

[MaciekRS]

Frontline in Kursk region

 

[Woland]

@SilverMachine Ukraine in NATO is a negotiating position and ultimate goal for the future. Fundamentally what Ukraine needs are strong security guarantees, and a clear framework for the relationship between Ukraine and other countries for the future. Both Ukrainians and Americans now look at the Budapest Memorandum as a terribly thought-out agreement and have learned from it. A similarly weak agreement will not be accepted.

Ukraine already started signing security agreements with its allies, with 27 countries having already signed bilateral security agreements. Key among them, some ideas for a more defined, efficient and predictable relationship between the US and Ukraine can be found in the Stand With Ukraine Act, a crucial one being designating Ukraine a Major non-NATO Ally (a legal status that countries such as Israel and South Korea have).