Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Soldier30]

Footage of Ukrainian FPV drones attempting to attack and drop munitions on a Russian soldier from the Aleysky Motorized Rifle Unit of the Center Forces Group. Thanks to his skillful actions and the application of skills honed during training, the soldier successfully evaded the Ukrainian drones and continued his combat mission. The location of the footage is unknown, and the drone models are unknown.

 

[Spitfire9]

I doubt they will be able to build 200 per month. If they can get even 50 per month, as you said, the damage to Russia would be great. 200 per month would be catastrophic for Russia.

This source (Ukrainian so not so trustworthy) says production is around 1 a day at the moment with plans to reach 7 a day in October.

Ukraine already using Flamingo missiles against Russia, expected to produce 7 per day soon

www.pravda.com.ua

Perhaps that target will be missed. In Ukraine's shoes I would focus efforts on Flamingo production at the cost of other programmes because the effect of disabling refineries is so great

- disruption of transport
- curtailing of exports of refined products, losing desperately needed export revenues
- negative effects on industry
- cost of refinery repairs

I read that the latest attacks have closed down another 8%-10% of refining capacity. Depending on how fast these refineries can be repaired, Ukraine may be able to reduce refinery output by 50% or more. That would give Russia extremely acute fuel shortage problems. Transport and industry might descend into chaos.

I look forward to port crude loading facilities (and pipelines to them) being targeted in a big way as well, significantly cutting revenues for the government from crude exports.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a combined strike by Russian Lancet-51 and Geran-2 drones on a Ukrainian UAV and FPV command and control center. The video shows Ukrainian service members from an unknown unit preparing the drones for takeoff. The video was filmed near the border village of Pohoreltsy in Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast. Russian units are using Geran-2 drones with direct control.

 

[contricusc]

I look forward to port crude loading facilities (and pipelines to them) being targeted in a big way as well, significantly cutting revenues for the government from crude exports.

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine will target the pipelines during winter. It is a well known fact that Russian oil is very heavy and extracted from deep down at high temperatures. In order to be transported through pipelines, it must be kept in motion by using high pressure at all the times. If the oil stops flowing through the pipelines, it cools down and becomes almost solid, clogging the pipelines.

If a pipeline is blown during winter time, the oil will cool down instantly and clog the pipelines, which will be impossible to repair during winter conditions. Once a pipeline stays idle during winter, it is almost impossible to repair afterwards. If Ukraine manages to blow up Russian pipelines during winter, they might be taken out for good.

It is a well known fact that after the collapse of the USSR, many pipelines were idled for a while, and they got damaged because of that. In order to repair and restart them, Russia needed help from Western specialists, and it took more than a year to fix them, with all the Western technology available.

If a pipeline stays idle during winter now, there will be no more Western help to repair and restart it, so it will be ruined for good.

I am sure Ukrainian strategists know that as well, and they may have some very nice surprises in stock for the Russians udring winter. If they blow up the pipelines, the entire Russian oil industry will be in ruin.