Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

UKRAINE CONTINUES to inflict deadly damage on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and the tempo is accelerating. The concerted Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and other parts of Russia’s fuel-distribution system began in August, and the number of strikes is rising from two or three a week to four or five.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/05/ukraines-hellfire-is-intensifying-the-kremlins-fuel-crisis

Flamingo cruise missile production is expected to soon reach 200 per month. Russia does not appear to have air defences able to stop them all. If Ukraine could get as few as 50 a month to hit critical parts of Russian refineries then train, truck, bus, car, air transport would be severely constrained as a result. It will be interesting to see how things develop in the next couple of months.

 

[contricusc]

Flamingo cruise missile production is expected to soon reach 200 per month. Russia does not appear to have air defences able to stop them all. If Ukraine could get as few as 50 a month to hit critical parts of Russian refineries then train, truck, bus, car, air transport would be severely constrained as a result. It will be interesting to see how things develop in the next couple of months.

I doubt they will be able to build 200 per month. If they can get even 50 per month, as you said, the damage to Russia would be great. 200 per month would be catastrophic for Russia.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Ukrainian FPV drones attempting to attack and drop munitions on a Russian soldier from the Aleysky Motorized Rifle Unit of the Center Forces Group. Thanks to his skillful actions and the application of skills honed during training, the soldier successfully evaded the Ukrainian drones and continued his combat mission. The location of the footage is unknown, and the drone models are unknown.

 

[Spitfire9]

I doubt they will be able to build 200 per month. If they can get even 50 per month, as you said, the damage to Russia would be great. 200 per month would be catastrophic for Russia.

This source (Ukrainian so not so trustworthy) says production is around 1 a day at the moment with plans to reach 7 a day in October.

Ukraine already using Flamingo missiles against Russia, expected to produce 7 per day soon

Ukraine has started using its domestically produced Flamingo missiles in strikes on Russian territory and is currently manufacturing two to three per day, with plans to scale up to seven daily by the end of October.

www.pravda.com.ua

Perhaps that target will be missed. In Ukraine's shoes I would focus efforts on Flamingo production at the cost of other programmes because the effect of disabling refineries is so great

- disruption of transport
- curtailing of exports of refined products, losing desperately needed export revenues
- negative effects on industry
- cost of refinery repairs

I read that the latest attacks have closed down another 8%-10% of refining capacity. Depending on how fast these refineries can be repaired, Ukraine may be able to reduce refinery output by 50% or more. That would give Russia extremely acute fuel shortage problems. Transport and industry might descend into chaos.

I look forward to port crude loading facilities (and pipelines to them) being targeted in a big way as well, significantly cutting revenues for the government from crude exports.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a combined strike by Russian Lancet-51 and Geran-2 drones on a Ukrainian UAV and FPV command and control center. The video shows Ukrainian service members from an unknown unit preparing the drones for takeoff. The video was filmed near the border village of Pohoreltsy in Ukraine's Chernihiv Oblast. Russian units are using Geran-2 drones with direct control.

 

[contricusc]

I look forward to port crude loading facilities (and pipelines to them) being targeted in a big way as well, significantly cutting revenues for the government from crude exports.

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine will target the pipelines during winter. It is a well known fact that Russian oil is very heavy and extracted from deep down at high temperatures. In order to be transported through pipelines, it must be kept in motion by using high pressure at all the times. If the oil stops flowing through the pipelines, it cools down and becomes almost solid, clogging the pipelines.

If a pipeline is blown during winter time, the oil will cool down instantly and clog the pipelines, which will be impossible to repair during winter conditions. Once a pipeline stays idle during winter, it is almost impossible to repair afterwards. If Ukraine manages to blow up Russian pipelines during winter, they might be taken out for good.

It is a well known fact that after the collapse of the USSR, many pipelines were idled for a while, and they got damaged because of that. In order to repair and restart them, Russia needed help from Western specialists, and it took more than a year to fix them, with all the Western technology available.

If a pipeline stays idle during winter now, there will be no more Western help to repair and restart it, so it will be ruined for good.

I am sure Ukrainian strategists know that as well, and they may have some very nice surprises in stock for the Russians udring winter. If they blow up the pipelines, the entire Russian oil industry will be in ruin.

 

[Soldier30]

Kharkiv residents have published footage of strikes by Russian Geran-2 drones. The drones targeted the city's Industrial District and the 330 kV Losevo electrical substation. The drones also disabled the Ukrainian Thermal Power Plant No. 3 in Kharkiv's Nemyshlyansky District. In total, approximately 25 drones were used, and strikes were also carried out on other targets in the city.

 

[Spitfire9]

It will be interesting to see if Ukraine will target the pipelines during winter. It is a well known fact that Russian oil is very heavy and extracted from deep down at high temperatures. In order to be transported through pipelines, it must be kept in motion by using high pressure at all the times. If the oil stops flowing through the pipelines, it cools down and becomes almost solid, clogging the pipelines.

If a pipeline is blown during winter time, the oil will cool down instantly and clog the pipelines, which will be impossible to repair during winter conditions. Once a pipeline stays idle during winter, it is almost impossible to repair afterwards. If Ukraine manages to blow up Russian pipelines during winter, they might be taken out for good.

It is a well known fact that after the collapse of the USSR, many pipelines were idled for a while, and they got damaged because of that. In order to repair and restart them, Russia needed help from Western specialists, and it took more than a year to fix them, with all the Western technology available.

If a pipeline stays idle during winter now, there will be no more Western help to repair and restart it, so it will be ruined for good.

I am sure Ukrainian strategists know that as well, and they may have some very nice surprises in stock for the Russians udring winter. If they blow up the pipelines, the entire Russian oil industry will be in ruin.

Interesting to read. Now that Ukraine has its own long range strike capability, Russia looks to be very vulnerable to its crude transport infrastructure (pipelines, pumping stations etc) being damaged by Ukrainian attacks with long term consequences. I imagine that pipelines cannot be adequately defended by air defence assets. It is one thing to place air defence assets in a position to defend a 5 sq km area in which a refinery is located - but even with concentrated air defences protecting them, they are still suffering strikes. It is a different challenge to place air defence assets in a position to defend a 500 km long pipeline.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the results of an unusual attack by a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone on a Russian Buk-M2 air defense system. For an unknown reason, the drone's warhead failed to deploy, and it simply landed on the Buk-M2 air defense launcher. In this state, the Ukrainian drone traveled 15 kilometers and was delivered to the rear of the Russian army. The video has been shortened.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage has been released of a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile striking a Ukrainian drone assembly plant. It was not possible to determine what drones the facility was assembling. The drone assembly plant was located on the premises of an industrial facility in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson. It's worth noting that the strike occurred during daylight hours, suggesting the plan was to also target the personnel.

 

[Soldier30]

A Russian soldier fights five Ukrainian soldiers. This is a scene from a fight between a Russian soldier with the call sign "Mio," from the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Army, and five Ukrainian soldiers. The name of the Ukrainian unit has not been released.
The video was filmed during the battle for Novohryhorivka in the Zaporizhzhia region. A Russian soldier, spotting Ukrainian soldiers in a building, throws a grenade into the building and opens fire with small arms. After two soldiers are killed, the Ukrainian soldiers decide to retreat, but are ambushed by a Russian soldier. Three Ukrainian soldiers, wounded, are killed in a field by Russian drone strikes. The video has been edited, and the drone attack and the soldiers' deaths have been removed.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter using an X-39 LMUR guided missile in combat in Ukraine. The video shows a Russian X-39 missile striking a temporary deployment point for the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army, located in a building. The video was filmed in the village of Kirovsk in the Krasnolimansk direction

 

[Soldier30]

Russian aircraft struck an underground temporary Ukrainian army base with a FAB-3000 aerial bomb. The FAB-3000 bomb, equipped with a UMPK module, was dropped by a Su-34 fighter-bomber. The video was filmed in an industrial zone near Kupyansk.

 

[Relic]

Germany has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $100+ million usd, financed by an undisclosed country from the European Union. The package consists of the following:

- 35 Skyranger Air Defense Systems, built on the Leopard 1 platform.

The Skyranger Air Defense System is a cutting edge platform, built by Rheimetall

Skyranger 35 to be supplied to Ukraine

Rheinmetall is supplying Ukraine with further Skyranger 35 air defence systems based on the Leopard 1. The systems are being financed by an EU country .

www.rheinmetall.com

Ukraine Will Receive Skyranger 35 Air Defense Systems on Leopard 1 Chassis at Expense of Russian Assets

Ukraine will be armed with the Skyranger 35 anti-aircraft systems on the Leopard 1 tank chassis at the expense of frozen Russian assets in the Occident.

militarnyi.com

Britain also announced that hundreds of Martlett LMM Air Defense Missiles have been shipped to Ukraine months ahead of schedule. The UK is producing 4000 Martlett missiles for Ukraine at the Thales Factory in Belfast, Ireland.

Hundreds of missiles delivered to Ukraine months ahead of schedule as UK leads Kyiv trade delegation

Crucial missiles for Ukraine are months ahead of their delivery schedule, as the Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry, Luke Pollard, led a UK trade delegation visit to Kyiv.

www.gov.uk

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian VT-40 FPV drone striking a Ukrainian UAV control center containing an ammunition depot. The Ukrainian ammunition depot was located in an abandoned building near the village of Monachynivka in the Kupyansk district of the Kharkiv region.

 

[Spitfire9]

With Russian casualties of around a million or more according to non-Russian information sources (near 1,000 a day since the war started), I do wonder how many casualties are incurred in gaining 1 sq km of Ukrainian territory.

I see that 135,000 new recruits are on the way:

Thousands of Russians have been banned from travelling after the Kremlin activated a nationwide system of electronic military draft notices. This marks another stage in Moscow's efforts to prevent potential military recruits from fleeing the country.

The electric notices are being distributed just as the Kremlin launches its autumn conscription campaign, that runs for three months from the beginning of October through to the end of December. Russia's Defence Ministry plans to call up 135,000 men aged 18 to 30, making it the largest draft since 2016. The names of those eligible for the draft are automatically added to a government database, once a call up has been issued.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2119890/russia-digital-mobilisation-notices-ukraine-war

With near 1,000 casualties a day, how long will 135,000 more soldiers last, I wonder.

On the civil side of Russia's economy some of the largest companies are starting to reduce the number of days workers work each month. Workers are not paid for the days they are not required. Good for Rosstat's figures - the workers are still employed, so unemployment figures are unaffected even though less labour is being employed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyVG0_fsM10&t=707s

 

[blackjack]

The fact remains that Europe can afford to provide gasoline and diesel to its citizens without any form of rationing, while Russia, the great oil producer can’t. The economic strength of Europe is so big, that it affords to import all the expensive gas it needs, without causing shortages. Yes, energy is more expensive, but Europe has the money to pay for it, while Russia doesn’t have the means to keep its gas stations supplied.

wild statement if you think europe and ukraine are economically doing better in oil and gas during this war.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Ukrainian convoy of armored vehicles destroyed by Russian drones. The video was filmed in the Pokrovsk area, on a section of the road leading to Dimitrov. In Ukraine, the town is known as Myrnohrad. The video shows approximately 25 destroyed armored vehicles. It's worth noting that some of the vehicles had been destroyed earlier.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of four Russian FAB-500 M62 bombs equipped with UMPK modules striking positions of the 43rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army. The footage was taken in the village of Kurilovka, south of Kupyansk. The bombs were dropped by a Su-34 frontline bombers

 

[Soldier30]

The first footage of a Russian Lancet-51 kamikaze drone attacking what is presumably a Ukrainian APKWS air defense system. The APKWS air defense system was developed in the US using unguided 70mm Hydra rockets. The missiles are guided by an optoelectronic station. This version of the air defense system is mounted on a DAF truck chassis. The air defense system is designed to engage drones at a range of approximately 5,000 meters when used on a ground-based version. As a result of the Lancet-51 drone strike, the Ukrainian APKWS air defense system launched its missiles unintentionally. The video was presumably filmed in the Sumy region of Ukraine.