Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

Amongst all the propaganda on the internet screaming that Russia is bankrupt or its economy is collapsing, I notice that its coal industry is actually showing signs of collapse, as reported here:

The speaker says that 66% of Russian coal companies are making a loss, that loss expected to reach 4-5 billion USD this year. Unless the government/banks inject money to cover that loss, the companies involved will go bankrupt. If the government forces banks to finance companies losing money - which it might do - that just puts banks at risk. It is extremely unlikely that any loans they make will ever be repaid.

 

[FiReFTW]

US tariffs on Switzerland need to stop already, I’m getting tired of this crap, the Swiss and the Americans are the most stubborn bunch of idiots ever.

Especially the Swiss, don’t they realize that this is hurting their economy hard ffs.

The Ukranian war is hurting the economy yes, for whole of Europe not only 1 country, those are just facts.

 

[FiReFTW]

Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians are not fighting a war of conquest. If Russia stops fighting, Russia remains. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine disappears.

There is also the small matter of whether the people of Ukraine would prefer to live under totalitarianism or to live under democracy. With family connections in Ukraine but less than in 2022 (one, a civilian, died after the Russians occupied aouthern Kherson), I am certain that most people in Ukraine would hate to live in a state governed by Russia. Some would rather die fighting. Some do.

Its not about stopping the fighting its about sitting down and making a deal, yes you sacrifice territory but stop the war, stop the killing and of course safety guarantees that Russia can't possibly ever wage war on Ukraine in the future, problem solved.

 

[FiReFTW]

For the first time, I agree with you that Europeans are truly stubborn.
Your example proves it
How many times have we explained to you that Europeans didn't start this war? How can they stop it? By refusing to support Ukraine? But the Russians will quickly occupy all of Ukraine and reach the Polish border. I wonder what you'll say then?
It seems you're the most stubborn European

By sitting down and negotiating a peace.

 

[Spitfire9]

The Ukranian war is hurting the economy yes, for whole of Europe not only 1 country, those are just facts.

Russia's invasion had an immediate adverse effect on the world - crude prices shot up, grain prices shot up. Worldwide.

 

[Spitfire9]

Its not about stopping the fighting its about sitting down and making a deal, yes you sacrifice territory but stop the war, stop the killing and of course safety guarantees that Russia can't possibly ever wage war on Ukraine in the future, problem solved.

The only sure guarantee that Russia would not attack Ukraine again would be if Russia could not attack Ukraine again.

How can that be achieved?

 

[Iskander]

By sitting down and negotiating a peace.

It seems you missed the initial stage of the conflict. Frau Merkel and monsieur Hollande tried everything 10 years ago. They and Putin reached two peace agreements on Ukraine – Minsk I and Minsk II. But, alas,
Putin long ago decided to revive the USSR. And that's impossible without war. That's the main reason for the war.
Europe has nothing to do with it.

 

[FiReFTW]

The only sure guarantee that Russia would not attack Ukraine again would be if Russia could not attack Ukraine again.

How can that be achieved?

Well thats impossible so lets come back to reality, any country can attack any country at any time, nothing makes that impossible.

However if you put some measures into the mix where such an attack would be devastating for the attacking country, then it will be absolutely stupid and inconceivable for that country to do that.

Your from the UK, so you should be able to understand all of this.

 

[FiReFTW]

It seems you missed the initial stage of the conflict. Frau Merkel and monsieur Hollande tried everything 10 years ago. They and Putin reached two peace agreements on Ukraine – Minsk I and Minsk II. But, alas,
Putin long ago decided to revive the USSR. And that's impossible without war. That's the main reason for the war.
Europe has nothing to do with it.

Doesn't matter if Europe has nothing to do with it, ending the war is the priority.

 

[contricusc]

The Ukranian war is hurting the economy yes, for whole of Europe not only 1 country, those are just facts.

I tried to make the analogy with the US tariffs on Switzerland, so that you could finally understand that you cannot negotiate the end of a conflict that was unilaterally started, when the aggressor still thinks it has the upper hand. It is not possible.

Just like the Swiss cannot force Trump to lift the tariffs, and if he is not willing to negotiate, there is nothing they can do about it, the same situation is true for Ukraine and Europe against Russia.

Putin is not willing to negotiate the end of the war under reasonable terms, so there is nothing Ukraine and Europe can do to have peace. Their only option is to fight and increase the pain on Russia, until the Russians are willing to negotiate a just peace, which means withdrawing from the whole of Ukraine, and allowing it to join the EU and NATO.

 

[Spitfire9]

I tried to make the analogy with the US tariffs on Switzerland, so that you could finally understand that you cannot negotiate the end of a conflict that was unilaterally started, when the aggressor still thinks it has the upper hand. It is not possible.

Just like the Swiss cannot force Trump to lift the tariffs, and if he is not willing to negotiate, there is nothing they can do about it, the same situation is true for Ukraine and Europe against Russia.

Putin is not willing to negotiate the end of the war under reasonable terms, so there is nothing Ukraine and Europe can do to have peace. Their only option is to fight and increase the pain on Russia, until the Russians are willing to negotiate a just peace, which means withdrawing from the whole of Ukraine, and allowing it to join the EU and NATO.

I think that events even before the invasion cast doubt on NATO membership being a guarantee of security to members. Didn't one US president say that if members did not 'pay their way' the US would not come to their aid if it was needed?

To me it would be better for Ukraine to join an EU that increased spending on defence to a level where it could guarantee the protection of all members due to its military strength, a strength provided by weapons made by EU countries. That is not the position now, so some less secure interim arrangement for Ukraine's security would need to be made. The problem of corruption in Ukraine would also need to be fixed before it would qualify to join the EU.

 

[TR_123456]

To me it would be better for Ukraine to join an EU that increased spending on defence to a level where it could guarantee the protection of all members due to its military strength, a strength provided by weapons made by EU countries.

That guarantee would only be possible in a decade,not before.
Combine the current European militaries plus the production capacity of weapon systems and you will see that Europe cant even defend itself for a longer period(a month at most).

 

[contricusc]

That guarantee would only be possible in a decade,not before.
Combine the current European militaries plus the production capacity of weapon systems and you will see that Europe cant even defend itself for a longer period(a month at most).

Europe’s biggest problem is not its lack of power, but it’s lack of unity. If European countries were united in the same way US states are united in a single country, Europe would be a global power to rival the US and China.

Even now, with low military spending and limited reserves of ammunitions, Europe has the capacity to defend itself against any potential enemy, except for the US.

Russia, which is the biggest threat to European security, can’t advance in Ukraine, and in the same way, it would be unable to defeat a united European front, which would have total air domination against Russia.

The problem is there is no unified Europe, and this is where the risks come from. If Russia can pick on smaller EU nations one by one, it can win. Against the whole EU, if it were a unified force, it would stand no chance.

 

[contricusc]

I think that events even before the invasion cast doubt on NATO membership being a guarantee of security to members. Didn't one US president say that if members did not 'pay their way' the US would not come to their aid if it was needed?

To me it would be better for Ukraine to join an EU that increased spending on defence to a level where it could guarantee the protection of all members due to its military strength, a strength provided by weapons made by EU countries. That is not the position now, so some less secure interim arrangement for Ukraine's security would need to be made. The problem of corruption in Ukraine would also need to be fixed before it would qualify to join the EU.

Yes, I agree with you that NATO is not a guarantee, but it’s still better than nothing. Ukraine also needs to join the EU, and the EU needs to build up its military. Ukraine already has a very big army and MIC, and with European funding it can become even stronger.

The biggest problem the EU is dealing with, is the lack of union, and the tolerance to traitors. It is amazing that to this date, Hungary and Slovakia have not been sanctioned or threatened to be expelled from the EU. Orban and Fico are allowed to work as Putin’s Trojan horses, and nobody does anything about them. The EU should cut all funding and kick the two countries out of the single market unless they change their behavior. Insteed, they seek exemptions for them in order to allow them to still buy Russian oil and gas. It’s ridiculous.

 

[Passenger]

Trump denies Ukraine Tomahawk missiles, urges both sides to ‘stop the war immediately’

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/18/...iles-ukraine-white-house-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app

 

[Iskander]

Trump denies Ukraine Tomahawk missiles, urges both sides to ‘stop the war immediately’

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/18/...iles-ukraine-white-house-intl-hnk?cid=ios_app

Well, that was 10 (!!!) days ago. It's no longer relevant today. Since then, Trump has changed his mind 10 times.

You're not taking Trump's personality into account

 

[Soldier30]

Russian Tornado-S 300mm precision-guided rockets struck a Ukrainian pontoon bridge and river crossing. The strikes targeted a Ukrainian army crossing over the Oskol River in the Kharkiv region. Russian Tornado-S missiles also struck a Ukrainian pontoon bridge over the Seversky Donets River near the village of Raigorodok.

 

[Spitfire9]

IMF estimates 2025 Russian GDP will be around 2.5 trillion USD.
It is currently estimated that Russian GDP growth in 2025 will be <1%.

Russian crude production is currently around 10 million barrels a day.
@ an estimated average sales price of around 60 USD a barrel in 2025 (my guess), crude sales value will be around 200 billion USD.
A drop of 1 mbd in production of crude would reduce Russia's GDP by around 20 billion USD - a fall of close to 0.8% in GDP.

India and China have been buying Russian crude at a rate of >3 million bpd. Should they now stop, that would result in a reduction of close to 2.4% in Russian GDP unless Russia could replace them with other buyers. Of course any rise in the sales price of the reduced amount of crude sold would mitigate Russia's loss to some extent.

The Russian economy is already experiencing negligible growth accompanied by high inflation (stagflation). The new US sanctions on Russia's two largest sellers of oil may push Russia over the brink into severe recession. Might this be decision time for Putin? Could he continue the war under such dire circumstances?


GDP data source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

 

[Soldier30]

Russian Geran-2 drones struck the Ukrainian aircraft repair plant "Aviakon" in the city of Konotop, Sumy Oblast, Ukraine. Other targets were also attacked. The video shows an episode of Ukrainian air defense operations.

 

[Lool]

The city of Rodynske has been taken by Russia. This clearly shows that Ukraine just cant keep the frontline stable anymore due to the significant loss/lack of manpower.
I dont know how but Ukraine should try and make some sort of ceasefire deal since Russia will win this war. 2 years ago, Russia used to take a city every year at best but now, in 2025, Russia is about to take 6 cities at least

This is attrition warfare; its all about which army cant sustain the frontline anymore. At first, both armies will appear equal but suddenly one army will start to breakdown at a rapid pace as we are seeing rn

Other cities that Russia has entered or is close to occupying:
Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Myrnorhad, Lyman, Konstantinovka, and Siversk

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1983011100322128294