Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Spitfire9]

While Russia is advancing on the ground, I think a little perspective is needed. As 2025 nears its end more than one source I have read estimates that at the end of the year Russia will occupy 1% more of Ukraine's territory than it did at the start of year.

Russia is not enjoying a runaway victory on the ground. It is slowly advancing at a high cost in the lives of its soldiers.

Perhaps Russia will occupy 1% more of Ukraine in 2026. Perhaps 2%. Perhaps 0.5%. I don't think any of those numbers are important to the outcome of the war.

 

[Relic]

While Russia is advancing on the ground, I think a little perspective is needed. As 2025 nears its end more than one source I have read estimates that at the end of the year Russia will occupy 1% more of Ukraine's territory than it did at the start of year.

Russia is not enjoying a runaway victory on the ground. It is slowly advancing at a high cost in the lives of its soldiers.

Perhaps Russia will occupy 1% more of Ukraine in 2026. Perhaps 2%. Perhaps 0.5%. I don't think any of those numbers are important to the outcome of the war.

Yep. Russia chewed hundreds of thousands of men this yesr, and war materials that are hard / impossible for them to replace... And by year's end they occupy about 20.5% of Ukraine. Approximately 1% more than they did last year at this time.

What's worse is that the Kramtorsk / Slovyansk fortress belt is the most heavily fortified part of the entire country. So as Pokrovsk slowly falls, Russia will spend yet another year, chewing up people and resources, simply to the defensive lines in and around Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which will be another slaughter.

If the EU follows through on Thursday and uses Russia's frozen assets to extend Ukraine a $180+ Billion usd line of credit, while maxing out PURL purchases in the USA at $12-$18 Billion usd per year... Russia is going to be in a horrible place. Ukraine will have the money it needs to fund it's war campaign, max out domestic arms production, make substantial purchases from Europe, and using PURL l, return American weapons inflows to the levels they were at when Biden was sending the Ukrainians $1 Billion+ usd worth of weapons each month.

Manpower with continue to be an issue for Ukraine without significant reforms, however, their access to Western technology and superior weaponry will be significantly amplified, at a time when Russia keeps borrowing at insane rates to fund the war and slowly runs out of armor, air defense, etc.

 

[Lool]

Lool, Zelenskyy sends you greetings from Kupyansk, which you supposedly occupied

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1999460913401987446

First of all, If you have been following this shitty war from the beginning, then you will realise that nearly all the cities that Zelensky posed infront of has been lost to Russia. In fact it is so infamous that many users on X are calling it the Zelensky curse

Finally, Zelensky posted a fake video bro

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000091742750523829

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000191079560183908

 

[Lool]

While Russia is advancing on the ground, I think a little perspective is needed. As 2025 nears its end more than one source I have read estimates that at the end of the year Russia will occupy 1% more of Ukraine's territory than it did at the start of year.

Russia is not enjoying a runaway victory on the ground. It is slowly advancing at a high cost in the lives of its soldiers.

Perhaps Russia will occupy 1% more of Ukraine in 2026. Perhaps 2%. Perhaps 0.5%. I don't think any of those numbers are important to the outcome of the war.

The problem is that last year, Russia's gain was less than 0.5% of Ukrainian territory. This indicates that the rate at which Ukraine is losing men is more detrimental to Ukraine than Russia's casuality rate to Russia's offensive operations.

This is what the Western media fails to mention or doesnt want to mention to be exact

This is why Trump is trying to make a peace deal; he knows it is just not sustainable for Ukraine in the long run anymore

 

[Relic]

It's looks increasingly likely that later this week the European Union will free up a loan mechanism for Ukraine of approximately $200 Billion usd, that will be paid back using confiscated Russian financial assets. At $100 Billion usd per year, the funds are designed to cover 2/3 of Ukraine's Government and military budget for the two year period of 2026 and 2027. If the plan passes later this week, step 1 in Europe's plan to take the invasion of Ukraine into their collective hands will be complete. As Donald Trump prepares significantly sever the U.S. role in Europe's defense matters, this will mark beginning of Europe fighting for itself.

With the Russian asset backed loan in place, the next step is to ask individual EU countries + Canada , Britain and Norway to continue to dig deep and support Ukraine use their own budgetary funds to augment the loan and increase the military support to Ukraine through programs such as PURL, the Czech Ammunition Initiative and the Danish model of direct support for Ukraine's domestic defense industry, where it is cheaper to build many weapons than it is in the West.

Below are some figures detailing planned support from Ukraine's Allies in 2026, over and above the loan being discussed.

Germany : $13.5 Billion usd
Norway : $8.4 Billion usd
Britain : $6.0 Billion usd
Sweden : $4.8 Billion usd
Netherlands : $4.5 Billion usd
Canada : $3.0 Billion usd
France : $2.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Italy : $1.5-2.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Denmark : $1.5 Billion usd
Spain : $1.0 Billion usd
Belgium : $1.0 Billion usd
Poland : $1.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Portugal : $250 Million usd
Lithuania : $250 Million usd
Latvia : $120 Million usd
Estonia : 117 Million usd

Total: $49 Billion usd

These are the numbers that have been made public to this point. Numerous other countries have not yet detailed what their respective financial support will look like. It's safe to assume that the support will rise to over $50 Billion usd, however.

If we are to assume that Ukraine gets approximately $100 Billion usd via the Russian asset loan, and a further $50 Billion in funding EU countries, they are set to receive an influx of approximately $150 Billion usd in 2026, and a similar number in 2027. That's a massive surge funds, thr likes of which Ukraine has not received in any year of this war. If there was ever an opportunity for Ukraine to significantly increase the strength of their military via an insane weapons buying spree, 2026 and 2027 are the years in which to do it.

 

[Iskander]

First of all, If you have been following this shitty war from the beginning, then you will realise that nearly all the cities that Zelensky posed infront of has been lost to Russia. In fact it is so infamous that many users on X are calling it the Zelensky curse

Finally, Zelensky posted a fake video bro

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000091742750523829

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000191079560183908

I've been following Ukraine since December 1994, since the beginning of the war in Chechnya. I really disliked the policies Ukraine pursued before the conflict with Russia. Everything was very sad. Back then, it seemed Ukraine would never be able to become an independent state.

But today, as it fights the aggressor, I'm confident it will succeed as a nation state.

Naturally, Zelenskyy, as Commander-in-Chief, visits settlements near the front line. If they are subsequently occupied by Russia, talk of some "curse" simply means that these "speakers" are victims of Russian propaganda.

Ukraine is waging a glorious struggle for life, dignity, and freedom against an enemy that is far superior in every way.
Except in spirit!

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DnybtOIxlku8&ved=2ahUKEwjRyeqi076RAxVl3gIHHWo1GR0QwqsBegQIQxAB&usg=AOvVaw2_9TTHixcLrlY54Bk9EFjP

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a Russian FPV drone striking a group of Ukrainian soldiers sheltering in a basement. The video was filmed in the Krasnolimansk direction. Russian forces also intercepted the Ukrainian group's radio communications.

 

[Perun]

It's looks increasingly likely that later this week the European Union will free up a loan mechanism for Ukraine of approximately $200 Billion usd, that will be paid back using confiscated Russian financial assets. At $100 Billion usd per year, the funds are designed to cover 2/3 of Ukraine's Government and military budget for the two year period of 2026 and 2027. If the plan passes later this week, step 1 in Europe's plan to take the invasion of Ukraine into their collective hands will be complete. As Donald Trump prepares significantly sever the U.S. role in Europe's defense matters, this will mark beginning of Europe fighting for itself.

With the Russian asset backed loan in place, the next step is to ask individual EU countries + Canada , Britain and Norway to continue to dig deep and support Ukraine use their own budgetary funds to augment the loan and increase the military support to Ukraine through programs such as PURL, the Czech Ammunition Initiative and the Danish model of direct support for Ukraine's domestic defense industry, where it is cheaper to build many weapons than it is in the West.

Below are some figures detailing planned support from Ukraine's Allies in 2026, over and above the loan being discussed.

Germany : $13.5 Billion usd
Norway : $8.4 Billion usd
Britain : $6.0 Billion usd
Sweden : $4.8 Billion usd
Netherlands : $4.5 Billion usd
Canada : $3.0 Billion usd
France : $2.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Italy : $1.5-2.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Denmark : $1.5 Billion usd
Spain : $1.0 Billion usd
Belgium : $1.0 Billion usd
Poland : $1.0 Billion usd (estimate)
Portugal : $250 Million usd
Lithuania : $250 Million usd
Latvia : $120 Million usd
Estonia : 117 Million usd

Total: $49 Billion usd

These are the numbers that have been made public to this point. Numerous other countries have not yet detailed what their respective financial support will look like. It's safe to assume that the support will rise to over $50 Billion usd, however.

If we are to assume that Ukraine gets approximately $100 Billion usd via the Russian asset loan, and a further $50 Billion in funding EU countries, they are set to receive an influx of approximately $150 Billion usd in 2026, and a similar number in 2027. That's a massive surge funds, thr likes of which Ukraine has not received in any year of this war. If there was ever an opportunity for Ukraine to significantly increase the strength of their military via an insane weapons buying spree, 2026 and 2027 are the years in which to do it.

When and how would Ukraine return that money? That sum is large even for wealthy arab countries

 

[Spitfire9]

When and how would Ukraine return that money? That sum is large even for wealthy arab countries

The UK finished repaying WW2 loans from the US in 2006. Ukraine could have a similar long term arrangement for loans made to it.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of a combined strike by Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drones and Grom missiles on the Ukrainian bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast. The footage was captured by a local resident using a drone. It's worth noting that this isn't the first strike on this bridge. The bridge's lifting mechanism was also hit. The Russian Grom missile and bomb system was first used in 2023. The video has been edited down.

 

[Spitfire9]

If we are to assume that Ukraine gets approximately $100 Billion usd via the Russian asset loan, and a further $50 Billion in funding EU countries, they are set to receive an influx of approximately $150 Billion usd in 2026, and a similar number in 2027. That's a massive surge funds, thr likes of which Ukraine has not received in any year of this war. If there was ever an opportunity for Ukraine to significantly increase the strength of their military via an insane weapons buying spree, 2026 and 2027 are the years in which to do it.

And the Russian state is becoming less and less capable of both funding the war and funding the normal activities of a state.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian mobile air defense fire teams in action in Donbas and Ukraine. Small arms and MANPADS are used to engage Ukrainian army drones. The exact location of the footage is not disclosed.

 

[Iskander]

Ukraine successfully deployed an underwater naval drone for the first time.

The "Sub Sea Baby" drone was used in Novorossiysk to destroy the Russian 636.3-class submarine Varshavyanka, which was carrying four Kalibr missile launchers.
The cost of the Varshavyanka (Kilo) is 400-500 million dollars.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2000583782496137287

https://tr.topwar.ru/275185-kiev-zajavljaet-o-jakoby-sostojavshejsja-atake-na-port-novorossijska-podvodnym-dronom.html

 

[Relic]

When and how would Ukraine return that money? That sum is large even for wealthy arab countries

They won't return it. The European Union is permantly confiscating Russian assets that have been previously frozen in EU banks and using the funds to "pay back" the loan as reparations from Russia.

When Russia invaded they stole a bunch of assets from the West. They stole airplanes on the ground in Russia. They froze all foreign funds invested in Russia's stock market, refusing to allow foreigners to withdraw them.

This is simply pay back. The West has immobilized roughly $350 Billion usd worth of Russian banks assets. $250 Billion worth of those assets are immobilized in the European Union, mostly in Belgium and France . Britain has also offered to lend against the $10 Billion or so usd worth in their possession.

If this sounds like theft, it is. Moscow is suing in Russian courts, but the EU is laughing at them. Regardless of the outcome, the EU won't recognize the Russian decision.

It's pretty simple. The EU is drawing the line. If Putin wants to insist on the continuance of the invasion and be maximalist in his demands, the EU is prepared to send millions more Russian men, young and old home in caskets, funded by Russia's own money.

Invading your neighbour in modern Europe and face the consequences. If this scheme is agreed upon, the consequences will be an extremely well funded and liquid Ukraine for 2 more years, while Russia does everything in it's power to keep it's war fighting machine and it's economy afloat.

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian underwater drone "Sub Sea Baby" attempted its first attack on the Russian Project 636.3 submarine Varshavyanka in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base. It is unknown how the drone entered the base, but it is believed it passed through during the deployment of booms, which were monitored by a camera in the port. The drone missed the submarine and struck a nearby pier. Officially, the submarine was undamaged. It is worth noting that without increased port security, the next attack could be effective.

 

[contricusc]

When and how would Ukraine return that money? That sum is large even for wealthy arab countries

Through ”reparations” paid by Russia, from the frozen money. This translates into the money never being given back to Russia, and being considered reparations for war.

It’s like an accounting trick. Ukraine borrows money guaranteeing it with the frozen Russian assets, which in turn are used to pay back the loan as they are recognized as war “reparations”.

So the answer is, Russia is paying back Ukraine’s loans. As it should.

 

[Soldier30]

A scene from a battle between reconnaissance troops from the Russian Army's Eastern Group of Forces, filmed during the battle for the village of Varvarovka in the Zaporizhia region. It is five kilometers from the village of Huliaipole. The village of Varvarovka has now been lost to the Ukrainian army. At the end of the video, the sound of a cluster munition being fired by the Ukrainian army can be heard.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone strikes on temporary deployment sites and equipment of Ukrainian units. The video was filmed in the Sumy region of Ukraine, in the villages of Barilo and Belitsa.

 

[Relic]

The Defense Contact Group for Ukraine met virtually yesterday and several new military aid packages for Ukraine were announced as a result. I'll capture some them below.

Germany announced that they have officially upped their military aid to Ukraine for 2026 to $13.5 Billion usd ($1.125 billion usd per month) while they did not disclose exact quantities, the focus deliveries will consist of the following:

- IRIS-T SLM/SLS Air Defense Systems
- Skyranger 30 Air Defense Systems
- Marder IFVs
- Leopard 1A5 MBTs
- Panzerhaubitze 2000 Howitzers
- IRIS-T Air Defense Missiles
- Patriot Air Defense Missiles
- 155mm Artillery Shells
- Gepard Air Defense Ammunition
- Multi Variant Drones
- 120mm and 105mm Tank Ammunition
- Small Arms Ammunition
- Spare Parts and Maintenance

Poland announced a significant military aid package to Ukraine the likes of which we've not seen yet during the war. The package consists of the following:

- 155mm Artillery Shells
- 6-8 Mig-29 Fighter Jets upon their retirement at the end of 2025
- Undisclosed joint procurement efforts using using the $51.5 Billion usd worth of low interest SAFE loans that Poland is receiving from the EU.

Norway announced that they will provided Ukraine $7-7.5 Billion usd in military aid for Ukraine in 2026. The money will funds numerous initiates including:

- PURL packages from USA
- Czech Ammunition Initiative
- F-16 Pilot Training
- British Drone Coalition
- AIM-120 / AIM-9 Missiles for NASAMs
- Funding for Ukraine's domestic arms industry

Britain announced a new $800 million usd military aid package for Ukraine focused on air defense. The package consists of the following:

- Thousands of Martlett air defense missiles.
- ASRAAM air defense missiles.
- Automated anti-drone turrets.
- $472 Million usd is also being used to expand British drone production for Ukraine to 100,000 units in 2026.

Canada announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $500 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- AIM-9 Air Defense Missiles
- 18 Infrared imaging and targeting systems
- AIM-7 and AIM-9 rocket motors
- $50 million usd to the Drone Capability Coalition
- $200 million usd to a PURL package from USA

- The Czech Republic announced that theh have already secured funding for 2026 to provide Ukraine with 760,000 artillery shells. They will continue to seek funding to reach 1 million shells, which Germany, France, Britain, Poland and USA (through PURL) combine to provided Ukraine close to another million shells.

Denmark announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $294 million usd. The contents of the package were not released. Denmark also announced that it would be donating an undisclosed sum of money to the next PURL package for Ukraine.

The Netherlands announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $815 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- AIM-9 and AIM-120 missiles for F-16s
- $700 million usd to purchase drones for Ukraine, $400 million of which will fund Ukraine's domestic drone production.

- Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania announced new militsry aid packages for 2026 that will again represent 0.25% of each of their respective GDPs. This includes the following:

- $259 Million usd from Lithuania
- $167 Million usd from Estonia
- $130 Million usd from Latvia

All funds wills be used to support initiatives such as PURL, The Czech Ammunition Coalition and the Brotish led Drone initiative.

Luxembourg announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $120 million usd. The package consists of the following:

- $100 million usd towards the Czech Ammunition Initiative
- $20 million usd towards a PURL package

Portugal announced a minor military aid package for Ukraine valued at $12 million usd. The package will exclusively funds the purchase of drones from an unamed source.

New Zealand announced a minor military aid package for Ukraine valued at $15 million usd. The entirety of the package will be used to help fund a PURL package for Ukraine.


Montenegro announced that theh will contribute to an upcoming PURL package for Ukraine. However, they did not disclose how much they will be contributing.

Britain announces massive air defense package for Ukraine

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Minister McGuinty announces new support for Ukraine at the 32nd Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting - Canada.ca

Today, the Honourable David J. McGuinty, Minister of National Defence, participated in the 32nd Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting, co-hosted by Germany and the United Kingdom

www.canada.ca

Ukraine’s Partners Pledge Over $10 Billion in Military Aid and Production Support

Ukraine's Defense Minister announces significant foreign commitments for defense production and US weapon purchases, aiming to enhance military capabilities by 2026.

united24media.com

Netherlands pledges €250 million to supply F-16 ammunition to Ukraine

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Ukraine Secures Record Defense Aid Commitments at 32nd Ramstein Meeting - Oj

Ukraine receives $45B in 2025 defense support, with new 2026 commitments for air defense, drones, and artillery from NATO and partner countries.

odessa-journal.com