Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[clonda]

So how do things stand after 4 years of war? At Russia's rate of progress over the last 3 years a child born in Russia today - or anywhere else - would die of old age long before Russia occupied all of Ukraine.

New York Post: Nearly four years into war, Russia has gained little — and Ukraine keeps bouncing back, despite some 2 million draft dodgers

Russia Analyst Grace Mappes and Russia Research Fellow Kateryna Stepanenko wrote an op-ed for the New York Post On January 17, 2026.

understandingwar.org

I guess that, apart from the pre-paid cost of the weapons that Russia already had at the start of the war, Putin has sunk the better part of a trillion USD into the war. 700 billion USD? 800 billion USD? More? It is not financed by the state alone so it is not possible to know. For what return?

Listen, the Ukrainian army has been fighting for four years in a row. They're exhausted. Ammunition is running low, morale is falling, and no matter how many weapons the West supplies, human resources don't grow on trees. At the moment, a return to the borders of 1991, not to mention the seizure of Crimea, seems unrealistic, at least in the near future.

Russia had time to dig in and build powerful defensive lines.

So yes, at some point Ukraine will have to sit down at the negotiating table. Not because they lost, but because that's how wars really end. They don't end when one side gets everything they want; they end when both sides realize they can't achieve more by fighting. The only real question is when and on what terms.

If Ukraine can leave after receiving real security guarantees — NATO, EU membership, something concrete — and a territorial compromise that will at least temporarily suspend the conflict? This, frankly, may be the best possible outcome. Of course, this is not an easy deal. But to bleed for two more years, and there's no end in sight? This is also not a victory.

 

[Soldier30]

Russian FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment in February. It's worth noting that many more drones are being used, numbering in the thousands. VT-40 FPV drones, "Prince Vandal Novgorodsky" drones, and other models, including those controlled via fiber optic cable, are being used in combat. The exact filming location is not disclosed. The video shows drone strikes against various Ukrainian military equipment and structures. Information about some models is available on the channel. The footage also captured the strike on a rare Ukrainian AMX-10RC wheeled tank, made in France.

 

[Relic]

Canada has announced that it will up it's military aid to Ukraine to $2 Billion usd this year, while it's macro financial commitment remains unchanged. As part of the additional military aid funding Canada has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. The package consists of the following:

- 66 Additional LAV 6.0 APCs
- 383 Additional Roshel Senator IMVs
- AIM-9 Air Defense Missiles
- Funding for an upcoming PURL package

Ukraine set to receive massive Canadian military and financial support

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Government of Canada reaffirms unwavering support for Ukraine four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion - Canada.ca

Today marks four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. On this day, the Government of Canada reaffirms its steadfast support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.

www.canada.ca

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of nighttime strikes by Russian Lancet kamikaze drones on Ukrainian military equipment in the Donbas and Ukraine. Also shown is a Lancet drone strike on a Ukrainian fuel tanker near the village of Berezhne in the Kharkiv region. And a Lancet drone attack on a Ukrainian army infantry truck near the village of Novomykolaivka in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine.

 

[MaciekRS]

The army reserves that Soviet Union was building and collecting for decades now russia is burning up in hopes of capturing just a part of former Soviet Union.

 

[clonda]

Here is a quote from the British Army Review SPRING 2024 / ISSUE No. 187: "Between March 5 and March 8, the Russians made repeated attempts to establish new pontoon crossings. Each time, they had 30 to 60 minutes to get armored vehicles and soldiers across before Ukrainian special forces or drones detected the crossings and Ukrainian artillery destroyed them."

I watched a YouTube video where a Ukrainian soldier who fought there says they managed to destroy two pontoon bridges with artillery, but they couldn't hit the third one. But this third bridge turned out to be useless anyway, because the river level began to rise, and several infantry fighting vehicles got stuck in the mud.

In addition, the Russian command probably did not have reliable information about how many Ukrainian soldiers there were and where they were located. Therefore, they sent small mobile assault groups to strengthen the bridgehead and clear the way for the normal advance of the main column. It was too risky to send the entire column along a narrow, uncontrolled road without having a reliable escape route. And if things go badly, then there will be no normal way back either.

By about March 15-18, Russian troops had taken control of the village of Moshchun. But it was already too late and pointless. As we now know, the problems were at the level of fundamental planning. These kilometer-long columns did not plan to fight — they were heading somewhere for a parade in Kiev and could not turn around properly. And they thought they would just drive through the Moshchun. But the Ukrainian troops did not fight according to Russian rules. They blocked all the bridges and blew up the dam, which completely disrupted the Russians' plans for the western direction.

In Moshchun, Ukrainian artillery and reconnaissance troops simply prevented the Russians from 'turning on the tap,' turning their crossing attempts into a 'drip-feed' of forces that the Ukrainian defense managed to grind down.

 

[Ryder]

4 years already man. Time really flies.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the destruction of the Ukrainian dam at the Molochar Reservoir by a Russian FAB-3000 aerial bomb. The dam is located two kilometers from Kostiantynivka and was blown up to hinder the Ukrainian army's supply of reserves, provisions, and ammunition. The attack was carried out by a Russian Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber. The FAB-3000 bomb partially destroyed the Ukrainian dam.

 

[Iskander]

4 years already man. Time really flies.

By the evening of the first day of the Karabakh War, the Russians began joyfully shouting, "The Azerbaijani blitzkrieg didn't work!"

But the Russian blitzkrieg in Ukraine seems to have worked perfectly

 

[MaciekRS]

Girkin, who pretty much started this war 12 years ago is not happy in his prison (I wonder why Putin is still keeping him alive)

'“Four years have officially passed since the launch of the so-called ‘special military operation.’”
“We have reached this significant date with extremely negative results.”
“In terms of prospects for victory, we now find ourselves in a situation far worse than the one we were in four years ago.”
“Therefore, unfortunately, there is nothing to celebrate. Congratulations belong only to our beloved leaders who brought the situation to this point: the leadership of the General Staff, the former leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the Federal Security Service, and other agencies responsible for preparing this so-called ‘special military operation,’ including from an intelligence standpoint.”
“Of course, the main thanks go to our Supreme Commander-in-Chief, who demonstrated an outstanding leadership style: ‘one step forward, two steps back, jumping in place, then one step forward, two steps back.’ It is impossible to fight like this — this is how you lose wars.” “Unfortunately, our prospects are quite unpleasant,” wrote former Donbas separatist military leader Igor Girkin. "

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2026563133213421582

 

[Soldier30]

Despite the active use of FPV drones in combat operations in Ukraine, artillery continues to operate. In this video, a Russian 152mm 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer destroys a Ukrainian army infantry fighting vehicle in the Zaporizhzhia region. Rarely can conventional ammunition achieve such accuracy. The 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer was adopted by the USSR in 1971 and was produced in various modifications until 1989.

 

[Soldier30]

New footage of the Russian Yolka interceptor drone in combat. The video shows the interception of a Ukrainian Darts kamikaze drone by a Russian Yolka interceptor drone. The Darts kamikaze drone is similar to the Russian Molniya-2 drone and can reach speeds of up to 160 km/h, delivering strikes at a range of up to 50 kilometers. The drone's warhead weighs 3.6 kg. The Darts kamikaze drone costs approximately $1,000. The video was filmed in Russia over Belgorod.

 

[Spitfire9]

Today marks four years since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine. For four years, the "legendary" Russian army has been "fighting" where it started the war. They haven't even managed to fully take control of the Donetsk region.
This is what a million-strong Russian "army" is capable of under the command of a completely stupid, thieving, dishonest, and perpetually drunk Russian generals! These multi-star idiots have already lost a million (!!!) soldiers killed and maimed! But it's all in vain. They won't advance even 50 kilometers if the war there continues for another four years. For four years, this mob of alcoholics, scum, and criminals, incited by their commanders under threat of execution on the spot, has been attacking Ukrainians and dying ingloriously.

Many around the world, deceived by Moscow propaganda, expected the Russians to take Kyiv in just three days, and a month later, the "formidable," "victorious Russian army" would appear on the Polish border!
It wouldn't even get there in 400 years!

They came to Ukraine to kill their Slavic brothers, revive the decaying corpse of the USSR, restore the Russian Empire and the "glory of Russian arms" they themselves had invented. Instead, they received unprecedented shame, the hatred of all neighboring peoples, and the eternal curse of 50 million Ukrainians for generations of Russians!
Shame and curses!

They won't be able to defeat Ukraine!

Glory to the Ukrainian warrior!
Glory to Ukraine!

View attachment 79416

 

[Soldier30]

The Ukrainian army's line of defense in the Dnipropetrovsk region. A video posted by residents of the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine shows the Ukrainian army's defensive lines. The video shows three deep ditches with three embankments, between which are anti-tank obstacles and barbed wire for protection against infantry.

 

[Spitfire9]

Many around the world, deceived by Moscow propaganda, expected the Russians to take Kyiv in just three days, and a month later, the "formidable," "victorious Russian army" would appear on the Polish border!

I'm not sure that propaganda was needed for the world to see the Russian army as very formidable. On paper it was when it invaded Ukraine but it quickly emerged that it was a paper tiger, didn't it? That massive armoured column broken down and stuck. Stories of corruption - low grade tyres fitted to military vehicles, fuel having been sold from military vehicles while waiting in Belarus to attack etc - quickly punctured the belief that this was going to be a victorious army bulldozing Ukraine to defeat in a few days. You might argue that that structural corruption in Russia was largely responsible for Russia's failure to take Ukraine.

The quick walkover expected by nearly all took a few months to turn into a virtual stalemate. No amount of Russian propaganda claiming otherwise can change that reality.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian FPV drone strikes by the 37th Guards Brigade of the 36th Army of the "East" Group of Forces against Ukrainian armored vehicles at the junction of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian army has currently massed large forces in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts and is attempting a counteroffensive. The types of armored vehicles and drones used have not been disclosed.

 

[Relic]

According to reports Italy has been quietly refurbishing SIDAM-25 air defense systems for Ukraine and the upgrades have now been completed, making them ready for transfer. Reports indicate that Italy is prepared to transfer 3 batteries of SIDAM-25 (18 units total) to Ukraine. SIDAM-25, built on the M113 chasis, performs similarly to Germany's Gepard Air Defense System that Ukraine has used successfully to intercept Russian drones

Italy to deliver SIDAM-25 air defense systems to Ukraine for short-range drone defense

Italy to deliver SIDAM-25 SHORAD systems to Ukraine, equipping three batteries for short-range drone and low-altitude air defense.

www.armyrecognition.com

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Come Back Alive Foundation is actively refurbishing Soviet era ZSU-23-4-A1 Shilka Air Defense Systems. Ukraine possesses undisclosed dozens of these air defense units, however, most are in deep storage and require substantial refurbishment and upgrade prior to use. Ukraine is replacing the original radar with a Rokach-AS radar, capable of tracking up to 20 targets simultaneously. They are also replacing the systems analog computer system with a modern digital system.

Modernized Shilkas from Come Back Alive Foundation Destroy their First Shaheds

The ZSU-23-4 Shilka anti-aircraft guns modernized by the Come Back Alive Foundation are already successfully destroying Russian kamikaze drones.

militarnyi.com

 

[Iskander]

I'm not sure that propaganda was needed for the world to see the Russian army as very formidable. On paper it was when it invaded Ukraine but it quickly emerged that it was a paper tiger, didn't it? That massive armoured column broken down and stuck. Stories of corruption - low grade tyres fitted to military vehicles, fuel having been sold from military vehicles while waiting in Belarus to attack etc - quickly punctured the belief that this was going to be a victorious army bulldozing Ukraine to defeat in a few days. You might argue that that structural corruption in Russia was largely responsible for Russia's failure to take Ukraine.

The quick walkover expected by nearly all took a few months to turn into a virtual stalemate. No amount of Russian propaganda claiming otherwise can change that reality.

Watching Russian troops invade Crimea in 2014 without any resistance from the Ukrainians, and now, in 2022, at the beginning of a full-scale war, I doubted the Ukrainians' intentions to resist. When they began to exterminate the occupiers near Kyiv, it became clear that the Russian bear had fallen into a Ukrainian trap.
Until the very last moment, I didn't believe Putin would start a war against Ukraine: it was hard to imagine anything more foolish!

But he did.
It was a strategic mistake.
A mistake that no tactical successes can correct.

If European financial support and arms supplies continue, which I have no doubt they will, the Russians will not achieve their goals even before the Second Coming of Christ

 

[Spitfire9]

If European financial support and arms supplies continue, which I have no doubt they will, the Russians will not achieve their goals even before the Second Coming of Christ

I agree. I think Putin is set on a course of continuing, intensifying impoverishment of Russia's economy and people until the government runs out of funds. The longer that takes, the more business, industry and banks will have been damaged on Russia's downward path.

To me, pointless: it should have been clear to Putin from late 2022 that the invasion was very unlikely to succeed. 500 billion USD and a million casualties later, how much further has Russia got? Not far.

 

[Passenger]

欧盟敦促乌克兰允许德国进入德鲁日巴，将俄罗斯石油输送到匈牙利和斯洛伐克——FT​

乌克兰正受到欧盟的压力，要求允许检查受损的德鲁日巴管道，该管道向匈牙利和斯洛伐克供应俄罗斯石油。基辅声称遭受了俄罗斯空袭的重大损失，但匈牙利和斯洛伐克指责乌克兰故意阻挡。

此时，这两个亲克里姆林宫国家指责基辅夸大了莫斯科袭击的后果——尽管乌克兰官员称这显示了大规模破坏的证据。

该出版物写道：“乌克兰表示需要时间修复德鲁日巴管道，并提供了1月俄罗斯空袭造成的损坏证据，但匈牙利和斯洛伐克声称基辅是故意关闭管道的。”

匈牙利推迟批准欧盟对乌克兰的贷款，直到乌克兰恢复，并提出与斯洛伐克一起派遣事实调查团前往乌克兰。

据五位欧盟外交官和官员称，一些亲乌克兰的欧盟政府和欧盟委员会现在也请求基辅允许访问，以证明其正在努力恢复石油流动。

其中两人表示，欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩和欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔在俄罗斯全面入侵四周年之际访问基辅时，“特别请求乌克兰领导层提供德鲁日巴管道的访问权限以进行独立的损害评估，但遭到拒绝。”欧盟委员会尚未立即回应置评请求。

随着美国和以色列对伊朗的军事行动扰乱全球石油和天然气供应，能源价格上涨，争端变得更加紧迫。该出版物称：“随着基辅继续拒绝欧洲检查员进入，情况已升级。”

该媒体称：“一位高级欧盟外交官表示，基辅通过给匈牙利阻止贷款提供了借口，从而打进了'乌龙球'。”

“我们无法判断是否受到损害。有非常简单的方法可以记录下来，并展示他们正在努力修复。他们说：“他们没有做到。”

一位与总统泽连斯基关系密切的乌克兰高级官员“否认了基辅拖延的说法，称乌克兰国营能源公司Naftogaz的技术人员已向欧洲同行提供了德鲁日巴遭受严重损害的证据。”

纳夫托加兹负责人谢尔希·科列茨基告诉《金融时报》，“一次俄罗斯袭击引发了一个储存75,000立方米石油的油罐起火，'扑灭花了10天时间'。”

他说：“多件设备、电力电缆、变压器以及负责封闭管道的漏水检测系统均受损。”“空袭引发了欧洲最大的油库火灾，该设施大小相当于一个足球场。”

鉴于损害的严重程度，他说，“全面评估需要时间，预计很快会到来。”

该媒体写道，乌克兰国有的乌克兰运输航空联合会（Ukrtransnafta）在袭击发生时表示，“紧急维修工作”正在进行中，但俄罗斯持续的攻击使安全作变得困难。

一名乌克兰官员表示，修复需要派遣维修队前往潜在危险地区，并重新分配有限的资源。

“为什么我们要修复一条管道——在战争期间且没有停火的情况下——它从俄罗斯向俄罗斯的朋友供应石油？”这位官员问道。

根据民调，匈牙利总理维克多·欧尔班推迟批准一项价值900亿欧元的欧盟援助方案，针对乌克兰争端，这进一步加剧了他在可能失败的选举前的反乌克兰立场。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基指责欧尔班利用此事来助长其竞选活动，并在周一接受《金融时报》采访时表示，他并不打算让匈牙利总统的处境更轻松。

“现在你们阻挡了900亿欧元......“我们需要用于武器和生存的资金，”乌克兰总统说。

“随着紧张局势升级，欧盟驻乌克兰大使卡塔琳娜·马特尔诺娃通过泽连斯基办公室呼吁检查受损管道或派遣其他欧盟外交官，两位知情人士透露。据消息人士称，出于安全原因，该请求被拒绝了。”

周一，欧尔班表示，他“有卫星数据显示德鲁日巴管道受损不足以无法运营，并表示将继续采取'反制措施'，直到乌克兰恢复石油供应。”

“《金融时报》审查的卫星图像清楚显示管道位置因俄罗斯空袭而受损。但仅凭这些图片无法评估破坏程度，“该出版物写道。

斯洛伐克总理罗伯特·菲科表示，他和欧尔班提出的“事实调查团”以确定损失范围的提议已被拒绝。

一名乌克兰官员坚称泽连斯基曾邀请菲科直接在基辅讨论此事，但该邀请被拒绝。

EU urges Ukraine to grant access to Druzhba for Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia - FT

УНН Slider ✎ Ukraine is under pressure from the EU to allow inspection of the damaged Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Kyiv cl…

unn.ua