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Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Spitfire9

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This policy of asset seizure to finance the war won't provide enough funds to cover anything close to war costs. The Russian government is spending a great deal more money than it is receiving. Gold reserves to go next? Bank deposits to be converted to government bonds? Companies to be seized and sold?

Putin's moves smack of desperation to me.
 
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Relic

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With a massive surge in funding from the EU, Ukraine has finally announced their long awaited military reforms that Federov has been forshadowing for months. The announcement is substantial, but I'll highlight some important details.

- Substantial pay raise, especially for infantry and front line personnel. Base pay is set at $6,700 usd per month (300,000 UAH) and scales up to $10,500 usd (470,000 UAH) per month depending on rank. This is in line with Western salaries for deployed combat troops.

- Additional combat bonuses will be given to troops at the front for each day they are in combat, monitored by an integrated, AI powered tracking system that will monitor the positions of all Ukrainian troops in combat.

- Contracts for infantry, artillery, drone pilots, etc, will be 10 months in length for those with prior military experience and 14 months in length (to account for training) for those with no prior military training. Contracts for support personnel will be 24 months. The completion of a contract takes a member out of the draft pool for a minimum of 6 months, with defferent up to 1 year for those that faced sustained periods of combat.

- Members can request transfer to another unit internally and the transfers will be granted at a set number per month, in order of request. AWOL members will be given a finite period of time to return to their units without legal penalty and will only be docked compensation for the time they were AWOL.

- A significant drive to attract foreigners to supplement Ukrainian troops has started. This will be handled by private recruiting firms selected by the Ukrainian Government. Compensation (including contract terms) for foreign troops will be the same as those for Ukrainian troops. The hope is that 1 out of every 4 new recruits is foreign, using strong compensation to attract candidates from South and Central America, as well as impoverished regions of Europe. Completion of contracts in good standing will fast track foreigners on a path towards Ukrainian citizenship should they desire it. Foreign soldiers with prior experience will also be offered combat bonuses depending on experience and technical skill.

 

Spitfire9

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UK forces have boarded a tanker sailing through the English Channel. The tanker is said to be part of the 'shadow fleet' carrying Russian crude.
 

Soldier30

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The Russian army launched a new missile strike on Kyiv on the night of June 15. Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles, Zircon hypersonic missiles, and Geran-2 drones were used in the attack. According to media reports, more than 40 targets were hit in the strikes. Numerous fires were reported in the city. The cities of Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro were also hit.

 

Soldier30

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Strikes by two Russian 3K22 Tsirkon hypersonic missiles during a combined strike on Kyiv on the night of June 15. The missiles' speed is so high that they are practically invisible. The video also shows the launch of a Ukrainian Patriot air defense missile at a high-altitude target. Russian Geran drones, Kh-101, and Iskander missiles were also used in the attack on Kyiv; their strikes are shown in the second part of the video. The video has been abridged, showing only the moments of the missile impacts.

 

Spitfire9

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Analysts say Moscow is resorting to increasingly desperate measures to shore up its forces, and Putin will likely be forced to make more unpopular decisions this year if he wants to continue his invasion of Ukraine.

After all, if a potential military recruit was unwilling to take a hefty signing bonus last year, it is unclear what would make them change their mind now, especially given reports of poor treatment on the front lines and of soldiers bribing their officers to avoid being sent on certain-death ground missions.

 

Spitfire9

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English newspaper 'The Times' is paywalled. However it has this headline regarding the governor of the Russian central bank

Russia’s bank chief vanishes after ‘giving Putin a Ukraine ultimatum’​

Conspiracy theories swirl over Elvira Nabiullina, the relative liberal on whom the president has depended to keep the economy afloat​



With base rate to be announced June 19, if she does not show up to make the announcement it seems likely that Putin has taken over setting base rate. Reminds me of when Hitler appointed himself commander-in-chief when things were going badly in World War 2. I wonder if Putin could do better running Russia's central bank than Hitler did running the army.





 

Relic

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Relic

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Very important that the European Union 🇪🇺 + Britain 🇬🇧 + Canada 🇨🇦 + Norway 🇳🇴 get Ukraine the extra $20 Billion usd they are quickly seeking. They're essentially planning to spend $10 Billion usd to surge air defense onto the battlefield, both in the form of foreign purchases and domestic development. The other $10 Billion would give them enough isolated funding to maximize their domestic drone production for the next year and facilitate the purchase of most of what Europe can make.

The Ukrainians are deadly serious about scaling medium and long range drone production up to more than 1000 units per day and completely saturating Crimea to make it unlivable for Russians by cutting off all fuel and resource flow onto the Peninsula and starving Russia's Army in Southern Ukraine of the supllies required to hold their positions ahead of winter.

$20 Billion is absolutely nothing when shared among those 30+ nations. They'd be be crazy not to commit the funds and allow you Ukraine to fully execute this strategy, placing immense pressure on Russian logisitics and Crimea's occupancy.
 

Spitfire9

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The war on Ukraine is going badly for Russia. The cost is rising with little to show for it. Russian financial reserves have been depleted. The government has been 'running at a loss'. That loss has become far more serious this year. The outlook is for the Russian government's financial position to continue to deteriorate, and for that deterioration to accelerate - oil revenues should fall sharply with a ceasefire in the Gulf, corporation tax receipts at 25% rate were lower in 2025 than in 2024 when the rate was 20%, contraction in the civil economy may reduce receipts from income tax and VAT.

Putin appears to be fixated on / obsessed with prevailing in his war yet the signs are that he will not prevail. With the current level of Russian military 'success' in the war. it could last indefinitely, militarily speaking. Yet the Russian government does not have the financial resources to fight a war that lasts indefinitely.

What to do? Abandoning the war is unacceptable to Putin. Continuing as is may bring about financial chaos. How about intensifying the war, gambling everything on making some progress militarily then suing for peace? I will not be surprised if Putin takes that route. How to finance it? Print money. Providing that does not quickly lead to hyperinflation, it buys Putin some time to improve his end of war / armistice negotiating position.
 

MaciekRS

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If I lived in Moscow I would try to fill up fuel tank today. It maybe one of the last chances.


And I still remember when russians were talking how Europe will freeze in the winter. WELL .......
 

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