Indonesia Casual Discussion Warkop Indonesia

[Madokafc]

Atleast it will be troop morale keeper

Ukraine Army and militia is a heaven league away from GAM or Philippines Southern Rebels, they are using many advanced anti tank rocket or Missiles, termobaric launcher rocket, flamethrower, incendiary ammunition for their high caliber weaponry. As we can see with so many heavily burned and destroyed armored vehicles after every battle. Those small time improvement only giving small sense of comfort....

Those Woods plank is only adding more fuel

 

[HellFireIndo]

This is a good review of the problem surrounding Russian army logistics

We have a lot to learn, especially regarding the logistics of our military. For now, let's ditch all of the rumors of exact endurance of our - supply logistics because the numbers are ridiculously sketchy and inconsistent, ranging from 6 hours to 6 days, 6 weeks, whatever, let's put that speculation aside. But what's important is that we really undermine the importance of Perbekalan dan Angkutan/ BekAng. Andika even jokingly suggests a cadet joining BekAng, implying this branch is not prestigious (compared to Infantry Commando). When in a real war, it's the exact opposite, BekAng, and logistics playing the most important role, while special forces are for "special operation" of course.

We need to change our mindset, some generals said that an Army is defined by its' promotion system. What you put as being the best branch, where your best men are, defined what Army you will get. This is what we get, Infantry is the most prestigious and so all of the best candidates flock to be promoted to Infantry positions. Yet Infantry is the most vulnerable to logistical problems, they are quickly depleted, vulnerable to losses, mostly slow, and is manpower intensive, requiring a lot of supply. But heck our "military thinkers" think it's best to just focus on Infantry, even worse to rely on small Infantry units because apparently, big war will never happen.

At the same time even more crucially, the military leadership underestimated the logistics department. This branch is "buangan" branch, reserved for the least capable and least desirable candidates. This is a dangerous mindset, of course for small units in short operation logistics won't be a problem (hence the special force obsession and logistics neglect). But when situations like the Russian invasion or the Japanese invasion gonna happen, it will be pose a severe disadvantage to neglect logistics.

 

[Lordimperator]

Anyway, why i have not seen Neptune Shore based Ashm in action?

Did we already book the project, or only interested?

 

[Madokafc]

Anyway, why i have not seen Neptune Shore based Ashm in action?

Did we already book the project, or only interested?

Look like first delivery should be started in April 2022

The Russian doing attacks today maybe fearing the build up of Ukraine armed Forces and costs to do so in the future is steadily rising. As previously Ukraine already received advanced weaponry from many European country and US. And today show is already proof of the increasing Ukraine military capability.

And there is also rumour about the Ukraine already started to reactivated their ballistic Missiles building capability like Sapsan and Grom. Those are covertly financed by some wealthy middle east country like Saudi Arabia.

 

[Umigami]

Look like first delivery should be started in April 2022

The Russian doing attacks today maybe fearing the build up of Ukraine armed Forces and costs to do so in the future is steadily rising. As previously Ukraine already received advanced weaponry from many European country and US. And today show is already proof of the increasing Ukraine military capability.

And there is also rumour about the Ukraine already started to reactivated their ballistic Missiles building capability like Sapsan and Grom. Those are covertly financed by some wealthy middle east country like Saudi Arabia.

Isn't it already too late to build them right now?

 

[Madokafc]

Isn't it already too late to build them right now?

My bet the Ruskies already sent ballistic Missiles or bomber to destroying the facilities to build them

 

[HellFireIndo]

Sari Bahari moment

 

[Umigami]

View attachment 40658
Sari Bahari moment

and they blurred its aircraft number. Was that the one that got shot down?
the one that piloted by Russian Porkins?

 

[Van Kravchenko]

This is a good review of the problem surrounding Russian army logistics

We have a lot to learn, especially regarding the logistics of our military. For now, let's ditch all of the rumors of exact endurance of our - supply logistics because the numbers are ridiculously sketchy and inconsistent, ranging from 6 hours to 6 days, 6 weeks, whatever, let's put that speculation aside. But what's important is that we really undermine the importance of Perbekalan dan Angkutan/ BekAng. Andika even jokingly suggests a cadet joining BekAng, implying this branch is not prestigious (compared to Infantry Commando). When in a real war, it's the exact opposite, BekAng, and logistics playing the most important role, while special forces are for "special operation" of course.

We need to change our mindset, some generals said that an Army is defined by its' promotion system. What you put as being the best branch, where your best men are, defined what Army you will get. This is what we get, Infantry is the most prestigious and so all of the best candidates flock to be promoted to Infantry positions. Yet Infantry is the most vulnerable to logistical problems, they are quickly depleted, vulnerable to losses, mostly slow, and is manpower intensive, requiring a lot of supply. But heck our "military thinkers" think it's best to just focus on Infantry, even worse to rely on small Infantry units because apparently, big war will never happen.

At the same time even more crucially, the military leadership underestimated the logistics department. This branch is "buangan" branch, reserved for the least capable and least desirable candidates. This is a dangerous mindset, of course for small units in short operation logistics won't be a problem (hence the special force obsession and logistics neglect). But when situations like the Russian invasion or the Japanese invasion gonna happen, it will be pose a severe disadvantage to neglect logistics.

As General Omar Bradley famously said: “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”

this make me worry on how our armed forces to maintain logistic and battle readyness if open war broke out. Above paper, i think will be cleaned in one single sweep against mighty

 

[Van Kravchenko]

Ukraine crisis: India examines exposure to Russian arms

The move comes as Moscow is facing severe financial sanctions from the western world, making Indian banks jittery in processing even scheduled payments to Russian arms companies. Sources said that bulk of the information has already been collected and is being analysed at the highest level.

m.economictimes.com

Indian banks currently didn't dare to proceed the payment to buy spare parts and new armaments from Russia.

Edit: fixed the wrong article link

Rip 260 sukhoi and 65 mig fleets

 

[HellFireIndo]

this make me worry on how our armed forces to maintain logistic and battle readyness if open war broke out. Above paper, i think will be cleaned in one single sweep against mighty

I consistently disagree with this idea though, I have written against it in fact.

I mean we just witnessed that even Russia failed to "single sweep" against Ukraine right at their border. So how could we expect China, which is a continental country that admitted that they lack experience carrying amphibious operations, to single sweep a country thousands of miles away and expect to win easily?

I don't think so, in the other hand, we must think realistically, see their weakness and exploit it like the way Ukraine does to Russia.

 

[Umigami]

I consistently disagree with this idea though, I have written against it in fact.

I mean we just witnessed that even Russia failed to "single sweep" against Ukraine right at their border. So how could we expect China, which is a continental country that admitted that they lack experience carrying amphibious operations, to single sweep a country thousands of miles away and expect to win easily?

I don't think so, in the other hand, we must think realistically, see their weakness and exploit it like the way Ukraine does to Russia.

Destroy them at sea

 

[Madokafc]

I consistently disagree with this idea though, I have written against it in fact.

I mean we just witnessed that even Russia failed to "single sweep" against Ukraine right at their border. So how could we expect China, which is a continental country that admitted that they lack experience carrying amphibious operations, to single sweep a country thousands of miles away and expect to win easily?

I don't think so, in the other hand, we must think realistically, see their weakness and exploit it like the way Ukraine does to Russia.

And every time i must crush your dreams. China can still sweep Indonesian ass by one great move and precision strike against military harbor and Naval bases along with air bases, in which Indonesian Navy and Air Force today had not any worthy Defense

Our Navy and army still depend themselves on early cold war relic, how much those Van Speijk can do sailing and patrol every year and how much they are break down for every port visit? And do their Missiles still active? Those C802 bought in early 2000 btw. Meanwhile those Parchim class which constitute the bulks of Indonesian Navy, mehhh. I don't need to mention their illness anymore. For the three Fatahillah class? They are gunboat now, period!

So this left Indonesian Navy with rather modern two Raden Edhie Martadinata class and three Bung Tomo class along with four Diponegoro class Corvette. Well today they are still sharing some Exocet stock among themselves before doing operational duty because lack of number of Missiles to begin with. What a great news indeed.

The Submarine? Great, three from those four spent most of the time leisurely in the Naval bases because lot of issue.

Indonesian Air Force and air Defense system? 33 middle aged F16 and 16 early model of Flanker? What can they do and how much they can intercept incoming Cruise Missiles along with hundreds potential Fighter as the Chinese had some air bases in South China Sea and scores of air refueling capability, not to mention their already operational two aircraft carrier along with numerous number of Cruiser, Destroyer and Frigates.

China had three platform to launch long range attack with their Cruise Missiles, Submarine, Destroyer and Frigates, Heavy fighter and Bomber.

 

[Van Kravchenko]

I consistently disagree with this idea though, I have written against it in fact.

I mean we just witnessed that even Russia failed to "single sweep" against Ukraine right at their border. So how could we expect China, which is a continental country that admitted that they lack experience carrying amphibious operations, to single sweep a country thousands of miles away and expect to win easily?

I don't think so, in the other hand, we must think realistically, see their weakness and exploit it like the way Ukraine does to Russia.

Again, i said above paper. Not in realistic situation.

What written on the paper isn't always can be materialized.

But again, in logistic situation i'm the one wich against so many diversity (although logistical nighmare primarily will only work on airplane) in alutsista matter.

What i try to explain here is i hope our armed forces has majority in commonality, tho when some stuff is damaged during exercise/war they can be repaired as soon as possible.

*Although commonality will not main issue for normal Indonesian people.

But having so much commonality in logistic will make live so easy.

Nor, Also Indonesia has latest conflict that employed amphibious assult.

 

[HellFireIndo]

And every time i must crush your dreams. China can still sweep Indonesian ass by one great move and precision strike against military harbor and Naval bases along with air bases, in which Indonesian Navy and Air Force today had not any worthy Defense

You know, some weeks ago people accuse me of being pro-China because I try to present the possibility of diplomatically avoiding war and that war with China is not 100% certainty, merely a "possibility". But see today, when I present the possibility of Indonesia winning against a possible Chinese invasion, it is a "dream" that must be "crushed" apparently. So HFI is pro-China or anti-China? Neither, because HFI is pro-Indonesia.

Our Navy and army still depend themselves on early cold war relic, how much those Van Speijk can do sailing and patrol every year and how much they are break down for every port visit? And do their Missiles still active? Those C802 bought in early 2000 btw. Meanwhile those Parchim class which constitute the bulks of Indonesian Navy, mehhh. I don't need to mention their illness anymore. For the three Fatahillah class? They are gunboat now, period!

So this left Indonesian Navy with rather modern two Raden Edhie Martadinata class and three Bung Tomo class along with four Diponegoro class Corvette. Well today they are still sharing some Exocet stock among themselves before doing operational duty because lack of number of Missiles to begin with. What a great news indeed.

The Submarine? Great, three from those four spent most of the time leisurely in the Naval bases because lot of issue.

Indonesian Air Force and air Defense system? 33 middle aged F16 and 16 early model of Flanker? What can they do and how much they can intercept incoming Cruise Missiles along with hundreds potential Fighter as the Chinese had some air bases in South China Sea and scores of air refueling capability, not to mention their already operational two aircraft carrier along with numerous number of Cruiser, Destroyer and Frigates.

China had three platform to launch long range attack with their Cruise Missiles, Submarine, Destroyer and Frigates, Heavy fighter and Bomber.

Everything you said here can be easily countered with the fact that

1. Invasion won't come anytime soon, no risk of PLA invasion in the next 10 years, after that maybe but there is no proof of it.

2. It may never happen because it goes against China's interest to do so, unless in a World War scenario.

3. In a future scenario, we will by then acquire a considerable amount of armaments, so what you are presenting here, will be a piece of obsolete information at the time of possible Chinese invasion.

4. You are unable to present a possibility of an Indonesian resistance scenario, not even China will think as stupid as this to not expect resistance or to expect an easy war.

I repeat my words: Russia-Ukraine war presents us with the image of a superpower's military, getting bogged down in an operation right across their border. Think about it, Russia has more military experience than China and yet Russia is proven not to be invincible, even in their own backyard. But apparently, this case does not mean anything to some members here, no lesson learned at all.

Destroy them at sea

I mean you can just say a sentence as simple as this and it makes more sense than paragraphs of rebuttal. Say "we should destroy them at sea", and from this point alone, we can think of a way to build our military to allow that to happen when the time comes.

 

[HellFireIndo]

Anyway, maybe that guy mean is that with "muh superior TNI AD strong infantry guerilla tactic in palm oil forest", TNI AD can repel China air and surface threats by attacking China logistics when AU & AL got wiped out from existence by superior China Navy & Airforce. Then the super strong TNI AD infantry will counter attack China back to their home with the superior guerilla tactics in the sky and sea.

On the contrary, my idea is to abandon small unit doctrine, delegate these anti-KKB roles to the police, and change operational doctrine to larger units, maybe Division and Corps level, to counter the possible threat of conventional peer-to-peer war. To give an impression of this, personally, my favorite ground units are Kostrad and Marinir because both have the capability of waging conventional war. While smaller special units aren't really my favorite despite them being popular among the masses, as they are not the main force in a real war.

Also regarding AU and AL, I am vehemently against the old doctrine of TNI assumption of inferiority. That is we assume we are always weaker, of course, I disagree with it because the old doctrine ideas disregard the possibility of TNI superiority and home advantage. The recent plans of massive weapon acquisition shed light on the possibility of TNI having enough options and power to wage large conventional war on an equal basis.

So in contrast, I would like to assume AU and AL by then will be able to deliver a decisive strike against the enemy at sea, at the shores, basically crippling them, before AD even engages the enemy. That is why, guys, we must take into consideration future posture and reforms on doctrine, not just current posture and current doctrine.

 

[Van Kravchenko]

no risk of PLA invasion in the next 10 years,

None can guarantee that. not even PLN southern fleet can be crippled with current Indonesian capability.

what you missed from Russo-kraine war is the matter of fact that they have AD/ABM capability to take down enemy airplane/missile. yet they still lacking in land defense against amphibious operation. expect normandy like d-day event when PLN come with rage.

although faraway, and not so much experience PLN have huge stock in their armory to do capable preemptive strike. combination of highest economy and military capability in asia, will make you totally a giant that can stomp to anything. thus make if Sino-indo conflict happened, it will not like Russo-kraine war.

expect run in the woods, guerilla wars. that all what we can. we still need dozen of AD/ABM, Dozen of fighter squadron, and dozen of surface combatant.

 

[HellFireIndo]

None can guarantee that. not even PLN southern fleet can be crippled with current Indonesian capability.

It goes both ways, there is no guarantee that there will be or there will not be war. But let's not say "current" Indonesian capability, we have ordered these weapons you know, planes and ships, so let's build our assumption with that consideration in mind.

what you missed from Russo-kraine war is the matter of fact that they have AD/ABM capability to take down enemy airplane/missile. yet they still lacking in land defense against amphibious operation. expect normandy like d-day event when PLN come with rage.

I mean what Ukraine has, we also have. Javelin and NLAW ATGMs, we got that, and they Ukrainians shoot Russian tanks with it. MANPADS we have also, which Ukraine used also to considerable success. Heck their SAM is antiquated, but for some reason, Russian air operation is impacted by it still, and on the other hand, we have the clearest footage of the Russian Attack Helicopter shot down by MANPADS, so even MANPADS has their use. So why do Ukraine using these simple weapons are considered effective, but Indonesia having the exact same weapons, cannot expect to use them as effectively as the Ukrainians?

That being said, I have only counted current capability, in the future, we will get more weapons, and a therefore stronger military, I expect we can even do better than that.

We also need to keep in mind that we, even in the worst-case scenario, will not go against the entire PLA. But only the PLA task force sent to attack and occupy Indonesia. Realistically this force will not exceed 100.000 in numbers and probably 2 to 4 carriers. Carrying that many troops in an amphibious operation, landing and also expecting easy victory against numerous and equipped enemies in their own territory, is unrealistic, even in China standard. That is too risky, and in an event of world war, we can expect that they will use most of their resources trying to fight the US because in such a scenario it will be assumed the US will be involved.

That is if we assume China acted the way we picture them to be. In reality, most PLA leadership and CCP are just the same as local "defensive-minded" boomers. Expert even calls it "Cult of Defense", because their leadership also orient themselves towards a more defensive approach no different than what we have in Indonesia. Ignorance of China, makes us see them as a mindless giant that is ready to attack at all times, but the reality is far more complex than that. PLA officers are just as corrupt as Oknum TNI, and as lazy to wage war as corrupt officers here. So there is no sure way to tell whether they will attack or not, or be effective or not because someone who knows China's internal affairs, will always be inclined to believe their leadership will hesitate to go to war.

 

[Lordimperator]

Which one Most likely CCP will do first, Taiwan invasion or 9 dash line adventure Southern Chinese Sea?

 

[Lordimperator]

we still need dozen of AD/ABM

Anyway any plan for land based ABM in 08 shopping spree? Atleast the aster30 in FREMM will gave us ABM in naval based for the future