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REPowerEU: A plan to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and fast forward the green transition*​


The European Commission has today presented the REPowerEU Plan, its response to the hardships and global energy market disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There is a double urgency to transform Europe's energy system: ending the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels, which are used as an economic and political weapon and cost European taxpayers nearly €100 billion per year, and tackling the climate crisis. By acting as a Union, Europe can phase out its dependency on Russian fossil fuels faster. 85% of Europeans believe that the EU should reduce its dependency on Russian gas and oil as soon as possible to support Ukraine. The measures in the REPowerEU Plan can respond to this ambition, through energy savings, diversification of energy supplies, and accelerated roll-out of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels in homes, industry and power generation.

The green transformation will strengthen economic growth, security, and climate action for Europe and our partners. The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is at the heart of the REPowerEU Plan, supporting coordinated planning and financing of cross-border and national infrastructure as well as energy projects and reforms. The Commission proposes to make targeted amendments to the RRF Regulation to integrate dedicated REPowerEU chapters in Member States' existing recovery and resilience plans (RRPs), in addition to the large number of relevant reforms and investments which are already in the RRPs. The country-specific recommendations in the 2022 European Semester cycle will feed into this process.

Saving energy

Energy savings are the quickest and cheapest way to address the current energy crisis, and reduce bills. The Commission proposes to enhance long-term energy efficiency measures, including an increase from 9% to 13% of the binding Energy Efficiency Target under the ‘Fit for 55' package of European Green Deal legislation. Saving energy now will help us to prepare for the potential challenges of next winter. Therefore the Commission also published today an ‘EU Save Energy Communication' detailing short-term behavioural changes which could cut gas and oil demand by 5% and encouraging Member States to start specific communication campaigns targeting households and industry. Member States are also encouraged to use fiscal measures to encourage energy savings, such as reduced VAT rates on energy efficient heating systems, building insulation and appliances and products. The Commission also sets out contingency measures in case of severe supply disruption, and will issue guidance on prioritisation criteria for customers and facilitate a coordinated EU demand reduction plan.

Diversifying supplies and supporting our international partners

The EU has been working with international partners to diversify supplies for several months, and has secured record levels of LNG imports and higher pipeline gas deliveries. The newly created EU Energy Platform, supported by regional task forces, will enable voluntary common purchases of gas, LNG and hydrogen by pooling demand, optimising infrastructure use and coordinating outreach to suppliers. As a next step, and replicating the ambition of the common vaccine purchasing programme, the Commission will consider the development of a ‘joint purchasing mechanism' which will negotiate and contract gas purchases on behalf of participating Member States. The Commission will also consider legislative measures to require diversification of gas supply over time by Member States. The Platform will also enable joint purchasing of renewable hydrogen.

The EU External Energy Strategy adopted today will facilitate energy diversification and building long-term partnerships with suppliers, including cooperation on hydrogen or other green technologies. In line with the Global Gateway, the Strategy prioritises the EU's commitment to the global green and just energy transition, increasing energy savings and efficiency to reduce the pressure on prices, boosting the development of renewables and hydrogen, and stepping up energy diplomacy. In the Mediterranean and North Sea, major hydrogen corridors will be developed. In the face of Russia's aggression, the EU will support Ukraine, Moldova, the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership countries, as well as our most vulnerable partners. With Ukraine we will continue to work together to ensure security of supply and a functioning energy sector, while paving the way for future electricity and renewable hydrogen trade, as well as rebuilding the energy system under the REPowerUkraine initiative.

Accelerating the rollout of renewables

A massive scaling-up and speeding-up of renewable energy in power generation, industry, buildings and transport will accelerate our independence, give a boost to the green transition, and reduce prices over time. The Commission proposes to increase the headline 2030 target for renewables from 40% to 45% under the Fit for 55 package. Setting this overall increased ambition will create the framework for other initiatives, including:
  • A dedicated EU Solar Strategy to double solar photovoltaic capacity by 2025 and install 600GW by 2030.
  • A Solar Rooftop Initiative with a phased-in legal obligation to install solar panels on new public and commercial buildings and new residential buildings.
  • Doubling of the rate of deployment of heat pumps, and measures to integrate geothermal and solar thermal energy in modernised district and communal heating systems.
  • A Commission Recommendation to tackle slow and complex permitting for major renewable projects, and a targeted amendment to the Renewable Energy Directive to recognise renewable energy as an overriding public interest. Dedicated ‘go-to' areas for renewables should be put in place by Member States with shortened and simplified permitting processes in areas with lower environmental risks. To help quickly identify such ‘go-to' areas, the Commission is making available datasets on environmentally sensitive areas as part of its digital mapping tool for geographic data related to energy, industry and infrastructure.
  • Setting a target of 10 million tonnes of domestic renewable hydrogen production and 10 million tonnes of imports by 2030, to replace natural gas, coal and oil in hard-to-decarbonise industries and transport sectors. To accelerate the hydrogen market increased sub-targets for specific sectors would need to be agreed by the co-legislators. The Commission is also publishing two Delegated Acts on the definition and production of renewable hydrogen to ensure that production leads to net decarbonisation. To accelerate hydrogen projects, additional funding of €200 million is set aside for research, and the Commission commits to complete the assessment of the first Important Projects of Common European Interest by the summer.
  • A Biomethane Action Plan sets out tools including a new biomethane industrial partnership and financial incentives to increase production to 35bcm by 2030, including through the Common Agricultural Policy.
Reducing fossil fuel consumption in industry and transport

Replacing coal, oil and natural gas in industrial processes will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen security and competitiveness. Energy savings, efficiency, fuel substitution, electrification, and an enhanced uptake of renewable hydrogen, biogas and biomethane by industry could save up to 35 bcm of natural gas by 2030 on top of what is foreseen under the Fit for 55 proposals.

The Commission will roll out carbon contracts for difference to support the uptake of green hydrogen by industry and specific financing for REPowerEU under the Innovation Fund, using emission trading revenues to further support the switch away from Russian fossil fuel dependencies. The Commission is also giving guidance on renewable energy and power purchase agreements and will provide a technical advisory facility with the European Investment Bank. To maintain and regain technological and industrial leadership in areas such as solar and hydrogen, and to support the workforce, the Commission proposes to establish an EU Solar Industry Alliance and a large-scale skills partnership. The Commission will also intensify work on the supply of critical raw materials and prepare a legislative proposal.

To enhance energy savings and efficiencies in the transport sector and accelerate the transition towards zero-emission vehicles, the Commission will present a Greening of Freight Package, aiming to significantly increase energy efficiency in the sector, and consider a legislative initiative to increase the share of zero emission vehicles in public and corporate car fleets above a certain size. The EU Save Energy Communication also includes many recommendations to cities, regions and national authorities that can effectively contribute to the substitution of fossil fuels in the transport sector.

Smart Investment

Delivering the REPowerEU objectives requires an additional investment of €210 billion between now and 2027. This is a down-payment on our independence and security. Cutting Russian fossil fuel imports can also save us almost €100 billion per year. These investments must be met by the private and public sector, and at the national, cross-border and EU level.

To support REPowerEU, €225 billion is already available in loans under the RRF. The Commission adopted legislation and guidance to Member States today on how to modify and complement their RRPs in the context of REPowerEU. In addition, the Commission proposes to increase the RRF financial envelope with €20 billion in grants from the sale of EU Emission Trading System allowances currently held in the Market Stability Reserve, to be auctioned in a way that does not disrupt the market. As such, the ETS not only reduces emissions and the use of fossil fuels, it also raises the necessary funds to achieve energy independence.
Under the current MFF, cohesion policy will already support decarbonisation and green transition projects with up to €100 billion by investing in renewable energy, hydrogen and infrastructure. An additional €26.9 billion from cohesion funds could be made available in voluntary transfers to the RRF. A further €7.5 billion from the Common Agricultural Policy is also made available through voluntary transfers to the RRF. The Commission will double the funding available for the 2022 Large Scale Call of the Innovation Fund this autumn to around €3 billion.

The Trans-European Energy Networks (TEN-E) have helped to create a resilient and interconnected EU gas infrastructure. Limited additional gas infrastructure, estimated at around €10 billion of investment, is needed to complement the existing Projects of Common Interest (PCI) List and fully compensate for the future loss of Russian gas imports. The substitution needs of the coming decade can be met without locking in fossil fuels, creating stranded assets or hampering our climate ambitions. Accelerating electricity PCIs will also be essential to adapt the power grid to our future needs. The Connecting Europe Facility will support this, and the Commission is launching today a new call for proposals with a budget of €800 million, with another one to follow in early 2023.

Background

On 8 March 2022, the Commission proposed the outline of a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the European Council on 24-25 March, EU leaders agreed on this objective and asked the Commission to present the detailed REPowerEU Plan which has been adopted today. The recent gas supply interruptions to Bulgaria and Poland demonstrate the urgency to address the lack of reliability of Russian energy supplies.

The Commission has adopted 5 wide-ranging and unprecedented packages of sanctions in response to Russia's acts of aggression against Ukraine's territorial integrity and mounting atrocities against Ukrainian civilians and cities. Coal imports are already covered by the sanctions regime and the Commission has tabled proposals to phase out oil by the end of the year, which are now being discussed by Member States.

The European Green Deal is the EU's long-term growth plan to make Europe climate neutral by 2050. This target is enshrined in the European Climate Law, as well as the legally binding commitment to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The Commission presented its ‘Fit for 55' package of legislation in July 2021 to implement these targets; these proposals would already lower our gas consumption by 30% by 2030, with more than a third of such savings coming from meeting the EU energy efficiency target.

On 25 January 2021, the European Council invited the Commission and the High Representative to prepare a new External Energy Strategy. The Strategy interlinks energy security with the global clean energy transition via external energy policy and diplomacy, responding to the energy crisis created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the existential threat of climate change. The EU will continue to support the energy security and green transition of Ukraine, Moldova and the partner countries in its immediate neighbourhood. The Strategy acknowledges that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has a global impact on energy markets, affecting in particular developing partner countries. The EU will continue to provide support for a secure, sustainable and affordable energy worldwide.


https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3131
 

Bogeyman 

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FTgzeL3XsAAc-eS


Russian crude oil tracker​


 

Saithan

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I should have bought and EV in November and not Scross :/.

oh well. I might just use a bicycle if it gets worse.
 

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Oil prices began to rise after the EU countries' decision to impose an oil embargo on Russia.

There are General 2 options of living.

Hard and right way
1. You freedom, independence, democracy, own choices ALWAYS have HIGH VALUE and COST.


Easy way which later on cost will cost you live, live of you children and more
2. Obey you master (person/country, dictator, communist , fascist etc.) he provide you "the THING" which make you SLAVE. Usually people choose to sell their soul for the THING.
Later as always happens "the Thing" become more expensive to have it. Therefor slaves start complaining.............as always Master punish them more.......




Note: in present days you can replace word "person or dictator" with putin,russia. Also you should replace "the thing" with gas or oil




So what is you choice?

If it is option 1: then you MUST Fight for it there are no other way

if it is option 2: then obey you MUST pay the price, if you CAN NOT then sell what ever you have..
 

Blackbeardsgoldfish

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EU countries agreed to embargo Russian oil.
And here's another excuse to raise oil prices.
Oil shortages mean higher oil prices. The circulation of EU countries to other sellers will bring along the supply problem.
This is gonna drive up inflation even further. Has the EU made any deals with other oil suppliers to jump in for Russia?
 

TheInsider

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This is extremely bad for us and the Turkish economy. Higher energy prices mean a wider trade deficit. We should buy the Russian oil if Russia is willing to sell it at a discount. We are not in the EU so we are not bound by their rules. That will be an advantage for us. We should also use rubles for this trade.
 

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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that they plan to expand the potential of the Southern Gas Corridor, which consists of the South Caucasus Pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).
 

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Brent price could reach $150 per barrel on Russia-Ukraine war, oil import embargo​


The price of Brent oil could reach as much as $150 with the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the EU embargo on Russian oil imports, Malaysia-based oil and gas industry analytical and business intelligence platform Oil Industry Insight Founder Alahdal A. Hussein told Anadolu Agency in an exclusive interview.

EU leaders met on Monday to discuss a sixth sanctions package which included a partial ban on Russian oil. The meeting led to an agreement to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022.

EU leaders agreed 'that the sixth package of sanctions against Russia will cover crude oil as well as petroleum products delivered from Russia into member states, with a temporary exception for crude oil delivered by pipeline.'

The embargo will cover seaborne oil and partially exempt pipeline oil, which Hungary will use to transport oil by the Southern Druzhba pipeline.

The ban will be finalized after agreeing on the technical details later in the week.

The price of Brent have already seen $120 per barrel on Tuesday opening after the decision was announced.



- Alternatives to Russian oil hard to find

'There will be no overnight replacement for Russian oil and gas. And if we assume that they closed their eyes and just went on with it despite all these challenges, then they will have to rely on Africa, Middle East, and USA to try to replace the Russian oil. That will lead to huge increase in oil prices,' Hussein said.

He said that China and Asian countries will benefit from the ban as Russia will offer its oil at discounted rates in these markets to try to keep global market share.

'Oil prices are going to stay high as long as there is a war ongoing,' he said and added that with the embargo, Brent hitting $150 is 'not too far.'



- Brent crude's trajectory pointing upward

Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh, an international oil economist and Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School said that there was an the upward trend in prices even before the Ukraine conflict arrived on the scene.

He suggested that this increase was underpinned by a global oil market in its most bullish state since the oil price collapse of 2014 and a global oil demand in a super-cycle phase of accelerating demand growth which could last more than ten years.

Reiterating that Brent crude started to surge in January 2021 ending the year at $94-$95 and hitting $100 in January 2022, Salameh stressed the Ukraine conflict added a premium estimated $25-$30 to a barrel, but it has since fizzled out leaving oil prices to market forces.

Brent crude's current trajectory is pointing upward because the market is very tight with a shrinking global spare oil production capacity including OPEC+'s of no more than 2.0-2.5 million barrels a day (mbd), according to Salameh.

With the ban on imports, Brent could hit $130-140 a barrel, he warned.



- Volatility to continue

Christof Rühl, Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy of Columbia University in the City of New York, stressed that oil prices are trending upward in the short-term but for the last few months have traded – with high volatility – a range approximately between $100 and $110.

The current situation is characterized by fears of a slowdown in global economic activity, including in China, and widening of oil sanctions against Russia by the European Union, Rühl said, adding that the former drags prices down and the latter drives them up, and this explains the zig-zag currently seen.

'I see this volatility continuing. There is also an important aspect often missed. There is a global mismatch on the product side – so product prices for gasoline and especially for diesel have increased by more than crude oil prices,' he noted.
 

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Saudi Arabia ready to pump more oil if Russian output sinks under ban​


Saudi Arabia has indicated to western allies that it is prepared to raise oil production should Russia’s output fall substantially under the weight of sanctions, according to five people familiar with the discussions. The kingdom has resisted calls from the White House to accelerate production increases despite oil prices trading near $120 a barrel, the highest level in a decade, arguing that the energy crunch could get significantly worse this year. Saudi Arabia believes it needs to keep spare production capacity in reserve.

But fears of outright supply shortages have risen after the EU launched another round of sanctions against Moscow, including a ban on importing seaborne cargoes of Russian oil into the bloc. The EU has also agreed a deal with the UK to bar the insurance of ships carrying Russian oil later this year, a move analysts said was likely to severely curtail Moscow’s ability to redirect oil to other regions.

“Saudi Arabia is aware of the risks and that it is not in their interests to lose control of oil prices,” said one person briefed on the kingdom’s thinking. Oil prices fell on Thursday, dropping to a low of $112.80 a barrel in early trading from $116.29 at the close on Wednesday. Prices hit a two-month high above $120 a barrel this week. Saudi Arabia’s view is that while the oil market is undoubtedly tight, which has buoyed the rise in prices, there are not yet genuine shortages, according to diplomats and industry sources briefed on the discussions, which came ahead of a monthly meeting of the Opec+ oil producer alliance on Thursday.

But that could change as the global economic recovery from Covid-19, including the reopening of major cities in China, boosts demand, while the likelihood of Russia’s oil output declining substantially has increased. Russia was producing more than 10 per cent of global crude before its invasion of Ukraine. There have been tensions between the US and the Saudi leadership, including with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly rejected calls from the White House and the G7 to accelerate production increases immediately.

But several visits in recent weeks from a high-level US delegation, including Brett McGurk, White House co-ordinator for Middle East policy, and Amos Hochstein, White House energy envoy, have helped improve the relationship, according to a person familiar with the diplomacy. People familiar with the talks said Saudi Arabia had agreed to a shift in tone to try to calm prices as part of a rapprochement with Joe Biden’s administration.

It has also offered reassurances that it would eventually respond by raising production should a supply crunch hit the oil market. “Such steps are in the realm of the possible in response to materially positive movement on the US side,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator familiar with the leadership’s thinking, referring to efforts to smooth relations ahead of a possible visit by President Biden this year.

One diplomatic source said there had been discussions about an immediate increase in production from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could be announced at Thursday’s Opec+ meeting. But nothing has yet been finalised, and Opec+ could still stick with its production plan that has been in place since the beginning of the Covid crisis.

Production increases scheduled for September would be brought forward to July and August, the source said, although the group would have to approve the change. Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy at JPMorgan, said Saudi Arabia was still “wary of using up all its spare capacity” as “it believes it needs enough in reserve to be able to respond to what may well develop in the market”. “While burning through all its spare capacity now would be premature, they are willing to respond if the market starts to get out of control.

They view spare capacity as the last line of defence against the recessionary risk of oil spiralling higher.” Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the half-brother of the crown prince, has emphasised that he still views Russia as a critical partner in the Opec+ alliance. The countries have led the expanded oil producers group since 2016. However, Moscow could be offered an exemption from its output target should its production decline substantially. Both Libya and Iran have previously been made exempt from Opec+ targets when war and sanctions hampered their ability to produce.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is visiting Riyadh this week, meeting his Saudi and UAE counterparts. They reaffirmed their agreement to keep co-operating in Opec+. The oil exporters’ group cut output sharply in April 2020 but has been adding back some production each month. “Even as Saudi-US relations move towards rapprochement, the kingdom is not going to turn its back on Russia,” said Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects, a consultancy.
 

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What’s at risk due to Russia’s nuclear power dominance?​


The impacts Western-allied countries are facing due to Moscow’s sway over global oil and natural gas markets are real and well understood by now, even if solutions remain difficult. But those nations also face another level of energy risk that has received less attention as the war in Ukraine drags on: Russia’s considerable share of the global nuclear power market.

Western leaders need to immediately consider their exposure to Russian nuclear exports and take steps to reduce it or face another energy shock at the hands of Putin.


There are several segments of the commercial nuclear value chain where a Russian supplier could impact the availability of a reactor in the West to provide power. For nuclear fuel, these include uranium mining and milling, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication. For existing Russian-designed reactors, they include providing unique original equipment manufacturer spare parts and services.

Russia has a significant market share in many of those pieces of the nuclear supply chain through its state-owned nuclear company Rosatom. For that reason, various countries around the world are caught in a challenging situation, including the U.S. They may want to extricate themselves from buying nuclear energy supplies from Rosatom to reduce supply chain risk and to stop sending money to Russia, but at the same time, they currently rely on Russian services and materials to run their reactors.

As we laid out in a paper last month from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, various U.S. allied countries have Russian reactors in operation or under construction, including Finland, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Ukraine. Those countries are at risk of their Russian-built reactors having operational difficulties or even outages without materials, equipment and services to maintain them. However, various Western manufacturing companies can over time start producing replacements to overcome that supply challenge.

The more critical issue is the uranium fuel supply chain. Since Russia only mines 6 percent of the world’s uranium, it is relatively easy for countries and nuclear power plant owners to secure other global sources of uranium ore. However, Russia controls 40 percent of the global uranium conversion market, where uranium oxide “yellow cake” is converted into uranium hexafluoride — a gaseous form needed for the enrichment process. Natural uranium has a Uranium-235 isotope content of 0.7 percent, and the enrichment process increases the U-235 content to the 3-5 percent needed to run nuclear reactors. And Russia holds 46 percent of uranium enrichment capacity. The vast majority of the 439 reactors around the world require enriched uranium fuel, including all reactors in the U.S. fleet. And while each reactor has varying levels of dependency on Russian enrichment services, in total it is a material exposure.

The stark reality is that if Russia stopped delivery of enriched uranium to U.S. power companies, the U.S. could see impacts on reactor operation possibly this year or next. That could lead to reactor outages, and given nuclear power is over 20 percent of the generation capacity in areas of the country, electricity prices would jump even further than today’s electricity price inflation. There may not be even enough power in those regions to cover demand. Furthermore, if there was any question that Russia might use its energy exports for political purposes, it was made clear this last month when it stopped natural gas deliveries to Poland, Bulgaria and Finland.

The U.S. needs some proactive policy and purchasing action to start to address this situation. For example, a U.S.-based conversion facility that has been idled for years now plans to restart in 2023 at half its nameplate capacity, but it could displace an even greater amount of Russian conversion services with support from U.S. government policy as well as purchases from private power companies. For enrichment, the U.S. government and private power companies could look at strategies to expand U.S. production and technology to replace the Russian supply as quickly as possible.

The three major companies that could expand production are the U.S. private company Centrus, the United Kingdom/Dutch/German-owned company Urenco, and French-owned company Orano. In addition, the U.S. needs a 100 percent U.S. technology uranium fuel chain for nuclear weapons and U.S. Navy reactor activities. The U.S. lost this capacity in 2013 when the last U.S. technology enrichment plant shut down, and the U.S. has been relying on old inventories for military purposes. This is another fragile part of the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain that should be reviewed for potential rebuilding. Russian leadership in important portions of the nuclear supply chain is another potential global energy sector risk. Policy and private sector investment will be needed to address this challenge, too.

Russia’s war in Ukraine appears far from over. Moscow’s use of energy as a weapon to inflict pain on Ukraine’s allies may also be in the early stages. Western leaders need to take steps now to address their nations’ exposure to Russia’s hold over the nuclear power supply chain to save their economies from greater energy shocks later.
 

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