World Energy Market

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

Germany's Minister for economic affairs fears that there is a very real potential for an economic recession in Germany. The bottleneck in gas delivery has severely hampered german industrial production and may have a strongly debilitating effect in the domestic social climate.
He however also said that there is further room for action regarding sanctions against Russia, especially in regards to software and software-related services.

My summary of this german article:
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/s...ppheit-a-0f94fabb-f04c-4773-abe1-7316850d1cc2

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

JPMorgan Sees ‘Stratospheric’ $380 Oil on Worst-Case Russian Cut​

Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned.

The Group of Seven nations are hammering out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil in a bid to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. But given Moscow’s robust fiscal position, the nation can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.


For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous. A 3 million-barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.

“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote. “It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

World War 3 is coming at full speed, baby.

@Blackbeardsgoldfish ​

@Nilgiri @Cabatli_53 @T-123456 @MisterLike @Zafer @Ryder @Fuzuli NL @Yasar @Saithan @Captain_Azeri_76
@Combat-Master @Zafer @Saithan @Yasar @Kartal1 @TheInsider @Test7 @mulj @Stimpy75 @Stuka @Oryx @Anmdt

What Nilgiri said sums it up nicely, fearmongering from Wall Street giants isn't helpful. Whatever benefits JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs or another one of those massive players doesn't benefit you or your class.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545065990773510144

 

[Anastasius]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545065990773510144

Feels good to be an Azerbaijani right about now.

 

[TheInsider]

European countries soon will cease support for Ukraine. If Russia doubles down on the gas and oil embargo, the EU will enter into a significant recession that will trigger the default of Greek debts. It can't be avoided. No country can provide enough gas and oil via tankers to satisfy the EU's demand. Germany already canceled the military aid and more will follow as the situation worsens.

 

[Lool]

European countries soon will cease support for Ukraine. If Russia doubles down on the gas and oil embargo, the EU will enter into a significant recession that will trigger the default of Greek debts. It can't be avoided. No country can provide enough gas and oil via tankers to satisfy the EU's demand. Germany already canceled the military aid and more will follow as the situation worsens.

Agreed! Ukraine is slowly losing the war
European nations have proved to Putin that he can steamroll them even with a shitty military as long as he controls the gas that is being supplied to them

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545313701774954497

 

[what]

European countries soon will cease support for Ukraine. If Russia doubles down on the gas and oil embargo, the EU will enter into a significant recession that will trigger the default of Greek debts. It can't be avoided. No country can provide enough gas and oil via tankers to satisfy the EU's demand. Germany already canceled the military aid and more will follow as the situation worsens.

Sorry, but where did Germany cancel any aid?

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545399644552921088

 

[TheInsider]

Mark my words days of Germany are numbered unless Russia agrees to provide fossil fuels.

 

[Xenon54]

Mark my words days of Germany are numbered unless Russia agrees to provide fossil fuels.

Im anything but a fan of germany but i have to say you severely underestimate the germans. There is no nation that got owned in two world wars and partitioned for decades but still came out as the economic powerhouse.

 

[Oublious]

Ozbekistan, Kazakistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbadjian have a nice volume of gasfields. I hope the project come alive...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545158148381605890

 

[Anastasius]

Im anything but a fan of germany but i have to say you severely underestimate the germans. There is no nation that got owned in two world wars and partitioned for decades but still came out as the economic powerhouse.

They got a metric ton of investment and foreign help for rebuilding.

Germany won't fail but not because of German ingenuity but because America needs them to stay afloat.

 

[Merzifonlu]

Germany won't fail but not because of German ingenuity but because America needs them to stay afloat.

Both of them.

They crushed the German economy with heavy war reparations so that Germany would not start war again, at the end of World War I. However, they experienced bloodily that this situation still did not prevent the war. So they floated that "Germany ship", but at the same time they ripped Germany's teeth out.

On the other hand, the Germans, who were able to maintain their trained manpower relatively, were able to expand their economy considerably after the war by working very hard. In my opinion, their two greatest achievements were.

a) They quickly adapted to the environment created after the 73 oil embargo. The German automotive industry emerged from this crisis by getting stronger rather than weaker.

b) Cunningly dumped europe defense spending on arrogant Americans. Americans did not wake up to the situation until Trump came to power. I don't think they're fully awake yet. This situation has always made me laugh a lot.

 

[Xenon54]

Ozbekistan, Kazakistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbadjian have a nice volume of gasfields. I hope the project come alive...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545158148381605890

Russia and Iran will block any such piepeline.

 

[Oublious]

Russia and Iran will block any such piepeline.

iron is a hot balloon...

Russia will be difficult but not impossible.

 

[TheInsider]

Reportedly secret talks are going on between EU-US and Russia to stop the war after the EU economy shows signs of crumbling. According to a source, Putin said Germans advanced as far as Moscow but in the end, It was the Soviet Flag that was flying in Berlin.

 

[Xenon54]

iron is a hot balloon...

Russia will be difficult but not impossible.

There is a treaty where all kaspian neighbors must agree before such a pipeline can be nuilt iirc.

 

[Anastasius]

Reportedly secret talks are going on between EU-US and Russia to stop the war after the EU economy shows signs of crumbling. According to a source, Putin said Germans advanced as far as Moscow but in the end, It was the Soviet Flag that was flying in Berlin.

This unfortunately sounds very much plausible.

I didn't think Ukraine was gonna win this fight from the start but I didn't think the US would throw them under the bus this hard.

 

[TheInsider]

Putin also said if the west is looking to fight to the last Ukrainian Russia is up for it.

 

[Nilgiri]

They crushed the German economy with heavy war reparations so that Germany would not start war again, at the end of World War I.

Actually its more complicated than that when you look at the actual numbers in sufficient detail:

A) the amounts demanded - (which were also revised/changed to lower amounts later)
B) Germany's actual fiscal ability to pay
C) The actual stated text in versailles (i.e it was reparation, not punitive)
D) (Weimar) Germany's own irrational decision to finance this more easily by simply printing money....something external to actual rational options

The narrative of high punitive "unbearable" cost was largely manufactured by one group of elitists (that many historians also bias their reference to) that made all kind of other disturbing apologism for Germany in the 1930s too.

I will unpack this later in another thread at some point maybe. Its off topic.