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Live Conflict Yemen|News & Discussions

myNameJeff-17

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Should the US really go through with their Export Ban, where would Turkey get their Diesel from?

Would this be the ultimate cop out? "Sorry Saudi Arabia, we gotta ration the Diesel"
 

UkroTurk

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If you're looking at alternatives to get around the Strait of Hormuz given the current situation, there are basically two main ways to look at it: the temporary shipping corridors currently being coordinated, and the existing overland energy infrastructure.
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For actual shipping, the IMO and regional authorities have been trying to coordinate temporary designated lanes to get commercial crews out safely. Right now, it's split into two main tactical corridors depending on vessel flagging and security clearances. The southern route hugs the territorial waters of Oman and the UAE, which is where most of the coordinated merchant evacuations have been directed. There's also a northern lane closer to Iran, but that's mostly being used by specific bulk carriers and vessels with very specific diplomatic or flag-state clearance.
If you're looking at it from an energy or cargo logistics perspective, the physical bypass infrastructure is where the volume moves:
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  1. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline is the main one for the UAE. It pumps crude overland directly to the Port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, completely bypassing the strait.
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  2. Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline (Petroline) to move oil over to the Red Sea, though that route obviously comes with its own set of security headaches lately given the regional dynamics.
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  3. For general cargo that's already stuck inside the Gulf, a lot of operators are relying on ship-to-ship transfers at hubs outside the choke point, like Sohar in Oman or Fujairah, to shift loads onto safer vessels.
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"That was my exact thought at first—if the Strait is blocked, doesn't all this Gulf oil just get rerouted overland through Saudi Arabia to reach the global market anyway?
But looking into the actual logistics, it turns out it’s not that simple. Saudi Arabia definitely plays a massive role as a bypass route, but technically and structurally, they can't carry the whole load. Here is why the math doesn't fully add up if the Strait goes completely dark:


* The East-West Pipeline (Petroline): This is Saudi’s main weapon for this scenario. It pumps crude all the way across the country to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, completely avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
* The Massive Capacity Bottleneck: This is the real killer. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 to 21 million barrels per day (bpd) under normal conditions. Saudi’s Petroline only has a maximum capacity of around 5 to 7 million bpd. Even if they run it at absolute maximum capacity, it can only absorb a fraction of the displaced volume.
* The UAE’s Contribution: The UAE also has the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait by moving crude directly to the Gulf of Oman. But again, its capacity tops out at around 1.5 million bpd.
* What happens to the rest? If you add up all the functioning bypass pipelines in the region, you're still looking at a massive deficit. More than half of that oil has no alternative overland route. It has to sit in tankers inside the Gulf.
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So while Saudi Arabia and the UAE can keep a baseline amount of oil flowing to the world, they simply don't have the pipeline infrastructure to replace the sheer volume that those massive tankers move through the Strait every day. That’s exactly why any threat to Hormuz triggers immediate panic in the markets; the overland workarounds just can't scale up enough."
 
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