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Live Conflict Yemen|News & Discussions

myNameJeff-17

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Should the US really go through with their Export Ban, where would Turkey get their Diesel from?

Would this be the ultimate cop out? "Sorry Saudi Arabia, we gotta ration the Diesel"
 

UkroTurk

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If you're looking at alternatives to get around the Strait of Hormuz given the current situation, there are basically two main ways to look at it: the temporary shipping corridors currently being coordinated, and the existing overland energy infrastructure.
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For actual shipping, the IMO and regional authorities have been trying to coordinate temporary designated lanes to get commercial crews out safely. Right now, it's split into two main tactical corridors depending on vessel flagging and security clearances. The southern route hugs the territorial waters of Oman and the UAE, which is where most of the coordinated merchant evacuations have been directed. There's also a northern lane closer to Iran, but that's mostly being used by specific bulk carriers and vessels with very specific diplomatic or flag-state clearance.
If you're looking at it from an energy or cargo logistics perspective, the physical bypass infrastructure is where the volume moves:
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  1. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline is the main one for the UAE. It pumps crude overland directly to the Port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, completely bypassing the strait.
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  2. Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline (Petroline) to move oil over to the Red Sea, though that route obviously comes with its own set of security headaches lately given the regional dynamics.
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  3. For general cargo that's already stuck inside the Gulf, a lot of operators are relying on ship-to-ship transfers at hubs outside the choke point, like Sohar in Oman or Fujairah, to shift loads onto safer vessels.
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"That was my exact thought at first—if the Strait is blocked, doesn't all this Gulf oil just get rerouted overland through Saudi Arabia to reach the global market anyway?
But looking into the actual logistics, it turns out it’s not that simple. Saudi Arabia definitely plays a massive role as a bypass route, but technically and structurally, they can't carry the whole load. Here is why the math doesn't fully add up if the Strait goes completely dark:


* The East-West Pipeline (Petroline): This is Saudi’s main weapon for this scenario. It pumps crude all the way across the country to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, completely avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
* The Massive Capacity Bottleneck: This is the real killer. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 to 21 million barrels per day (bpd) under normal conditions. Saudi’s Petroline only has a maximum capacity of around 5 to 7 million bpd. Even if they run it at absolute maximum capacity, it can only absorb a fraction of the displaced volume.
* The UAE’s Contribution: The UAE also has the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait by moving crude directly to the Gulf of Oman. But again, its capacity tops out at around 1.5 million bpd.
* What happens to the rest? If you add up all the functioning bypass pipelines in the region, you're still looking at a massive deficit. More than half of that oil has no alternative overland route. It has to sit in tankers inside the Gulf.
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So while Saudi Arabia and the UAE can keep a baseline amount of oil flowing to the world, they simply don't have the pipeline infrastructure to replace the sheer volume that those massive tankers move through the Strait every day. That’s exactly why any threat to Hormuz triggers immediate panic in the markets; the overland workarounds just can't scale up enough."
 
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Lool

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If this piece of news is true, then shit we are screwed.

This may actually explain why the US cancelled its planned airstrikes against the houthis; i-e, in order to force the GCC and Israel to work even closer and make the GCC more dependent on Israel

translation:
Hebrew Channel 14, Major General Erez Weiner;
The expanded meeting with Arab countries in the United Arab Emirates is a meeting for a new order.
The Saudis suddenly need us and are communicating with us through the back door via the United Arab Emirates
In the end, all of them are coming to the threshold of regional power Israel.
 

Lool

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The UAE is blackmailing the Saudis regarding Yemen
In exchange for having former UAE forces act properly like amy decent armed forces, the UAE is demanding that the Saudis stop supporting Sudan's govt against UAE-backed RSF and officially recognise Somaliland

Mind you that the current sh*th*le we are in rn is because the former UAE-backed forces didnt even fire a single bullet against Houthi forces when they were invading Saudi-controlled territory


Still cant comprehend how on earth is Turkey remaining silent. This whole fiasco in Yemen cant be a co-incidence at all. The Houthis, UAE, and Israel have all united against Saudi Arabia in order to dismantle any sort of co-operation between Turkey and KSA. Knowing how incompetent the Saudis are, they are likely gonna take the deal and the Israelis will literally own the Middle East
 

Lool

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The houthis are extremely close to laying seige on the city of Taiz
If the houthis capture Taiz, then Saudi Arabia can say goodbye to Yemen as neadly all significant cities will be in the hands of the houthis and the Saudi-backed yemeni govt wont have any source of manpower whatsoever to conduct any sort of counterattacks in the future


 

Lool

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The houthis have retreated from flat terrain areas like those in Bab el-Mandab to avoid the menace of airstrikes and have given full priority to the Taiz frontline. The houthis want Taiz, Yemen's 2nd or 3rd most populous city but the Saudis are willing to spend billions in airstrikes to protect it no matter what

Some reports state that over the week-long houthi offensive at Taiz city, the houthi suffered losses in the thousands but no official proof/confirmation till date
 
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Corvus

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Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have agreed to activate “deterrence measures” under the Mecca Alliance to deter the Houthis.

Hakan Fidan pointed out that a diplomatic and peaceful solution is being discussed as well. So, I don't expect a full blown war that Türkiye is involved. They will settle for a deal after a little bit of beating.

Meanwhile, we should hopefully get a base in SA to ensure security of Bab al Mandab and to project power south of Israel.
 

Lool

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The houthis have retreated from flat terrain areas like those in Bab el-Mandab to avoid the menace of airstrikes and have given full priority to the Taiz frontline. The houthis want Taiz, Yemen's 3rd most populous city but the Saudis are willing to spend billions in airstrikes to protect it no matter what

Some reports state that over the week-long houthi offensive at Taiz city, the houthi suffered losses in the thousands but no official proof/confirmation till date
Update: Today, after the Houthis re-organised their forces, carried out a major counter-attack against pro-Saudi forces with the result being the recapture of nearly all the areas the pro-Saudi faction gained yesterday back into the houthis' hands

The incompetence of pro-Saudi yemeni forces is flabbergasting tbh! Iranian commanders have moved to houthi control centers and have begun taking control of the battlefield
 

TR_123456

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It seams to me that Houthies are the real Yemeni goverment. After all 80% of Yemenis are with them.
No,not exactly.
Yemen is complicated,many different factions.
Sometimes they side with the government and sometimes with the Houthis.
Depends mostly on how much the UAE pays them,or not.
Before you ask,it is in the UAE's favor when the Saudi suffer(long history between the two).
 

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