News Indonesia - US - China Relation, and ASEAN. Whats going on?

[trishna_amrta]

Menko Luhut Izinkan China Bangun RS di Indonesia : Okezone Economy

Pemerintah memberi karpet merah bagi China untuk melakukan investasi di bidang kesehatan - hot issue - okezone economy

economy.okezone.com

China Has Been Generous

 

[Gundala]

Menko Luhut Izinkan China Bangun RS di Indonesia : Okezone Economy

Pemerintah memberi karpet merah bagi China untuk melakukan investasi di bidang kesehatan - hot issue - okezone economy

economy.okezone.com

I just hope they can find strategic & reliable private local partner and not SOC. In other area it would be nice if somehow our Govt can bridge investment with higher Industrial technology sophistication with them, it will surely help the knowledge transfer to our local & national workers. But not too high since our human resource prolly not ready for it or we gonna end up with more Tiongkok workers.

 

[trishna_amrta]

we gonna end up with more Tiongkok workers.

Fifth Column you mean

 

[trishna_amrta]

WW2 Mariana Islands Campaign

What does WW2 Pacific Campaign has anything to do with the topic
History always repeat itself at strategic / grand scheme of things. All you need is change the name of the belligerent and the place.

To some degree, we are lucky because our potential OPFOR do not have any effective aircraft carrier, and unlikely to have any within any foreseeable future either. But what they lack of something they make do in other domain. Unfortunately, our efforts at our northern border is still severely lack and It's not about new assets either.

 

[RajaSultanKing]

Fifth Column you mean

I kinda wonder when will another red scare happen, not just in Indonesia but in other regions too since the threat of Fifth Columnist is quite clear and apparent

But then again that one Bapak is so romantically involved with the CCP and also our northern border seems to become like a staging area for them

 

[Gundala]

I kinda wonder when will another red scare happen, not just in Indonesia but in other regions too since the threat of Fifth Columnist is quite clear and apparent

But then again that one Bapak is so romantically involved with the CCP and also our northern border seems to become like a staging area for them

Staging area for what? Do they want to risk the strategic relation with Indonesia and compromise the more strategic area they have been heavily invested in? I personally dont see it happening. Teritorial occupation with local civiliant living in it is a reckless/pricey move even to both Giants specially with the world is moving toward new power balance. It is risky move to lose support from other nations in the world and none of them can afford to be in it alone for now.

I am not saying we should be careless, not at all. I am aware of the "worker" possible threat. I also know on how they want to build relation to their diaspora with approach on economy title forum here in Jakarta, and there are things that raise my eyebrow. Tho I dont think that forum discussion resulting something significant to them if we looking at the attendance. For workers, I agree we have to be cautious and take necessary measure and action, but this thing is in intelegence domain and the result or action will not make it to public. We can only hope our Govt is doing it right.

Both giants have narative to accuse each other of being "evil", and both have propaganda machine to do that. To me they both are alike with the main agenda is pursuing their national interest in their own way. This is where I think it will be beneficial for us to know about geopolitics, strategic positioning to see what is behind those loud noises and get better picture on what is really going on. We already experience "devide et impera" before, lets make sure we wont get caught in it again.

 

[trishna_amrta]

I also know on how they want to build relation to their diaspora with approach on economy title forum here in Jakarta, and there are things that raise my eyebrow. Tho I dont think that forum discussion resulting something significant to them if we looking at the attendance. For workers, I agree we have to be cautious and take necessary measure and action, but this thing is in intelegence domain and the result or action will not make it to public. We can only hope our Govt is doing it right.

The economic & commerce is their front at official capacity, while for unofficial or at grassroot level they are playing the religion card

 

[Gundala]

Whos we meeting with:

• NSA (National Security Advisor) - Jack Sullivan
• Director of CIA (Central Intelegence Agency) - Bill Burns/William Burns
• NSC (National Security Council) Coordinator Indo Pacific - Curt Campbell
• USAID
• Chair of The Senate Foreign Relations Committee - Senator Bob Menendez
• Senator Jim/James Ridge - (unknown/unclear)
• Vice Chair of The Democratic National Committee - Tammy Darkwood
• US Chamber of Commerce
• US ASEAN Business Council
• Pharmaceutical Industry/University

As we know from my previous post our Foreign Mins. met with Tammy Darkwood seperatly during her visit. I am sure we all curious about the topic they talked about. Then I found this video about her. After viewing this video it is comforting know that she aware what US Govt. is currently lacking to counter PRC influence in SEA. Things I have mentioned such as the importance of US economic engagement to the region, military , USAID, specially the idea of making ASEAN not to choose between US & PRC. This will surely help ASEAN stability/anxiety alot and make future US-Indonesia strategic dialogue smoother. Good move to Ibu Retno

I highly suggest you watch the whole video to get the full idea and not getting partial information that could be misleading. I make some time line mark to the topic I think might have an impact to Indonesia and ASEAN.

Taiwan 11.12 - 14.20
US Ground Base Weapon/Missiles System in ASEAN 14.22 - 17.51
US Economic Engagement Indo Pacific 8.25 - 11.11

 

[trishna_amrta]

As we know from my previous post our Foreign Mins. met with Tammy Darkwood seperatly during her visit. I am sure we all curious about the topic they talked about. Then I found this video about her. After viewing this video it is comforting know that she aware what US Govt. is currently lacking to counter PRC influence in SEA. Things I have mentioned such as the importance of US economic engagement to the region, military , USAID, specially the idea of making ASEAN not to choose between US & PRC. This will surely help ASEAN stability/anxiety alot and make future US-Indonesia strategic dialogue smoother. Good move to Ibu Retno

I highly suggest you watch the whole video to get the full idea and not getting partial information that could be misleading. I make some time line mark to the topic I think might have an impact to Indonesia and ASEAN.

Taiwan 11.12 - 14.20
US Ground Base Weapon/Missiles System in ASEAN 14.22 - 17.51
US Economic Engagement Indo Pacific 8.25 - 11.11

N0 h4Ve 1nternet qu0T4 4 40 minute v1De0

That video has loss me when it starts talking about climate change. The feminism format is already difficult enough to endure.

Anyway, for rather than ground base system that would require semi-permanent of troops, an at sea AEGIS BMD capable will be far more politically palatable. The ship could always be making port-of-call anytime they need before heading back to the sea for patrol, thus for politician it doesn't constitute as hosting force / base.

Heading back, watching Tubi TV

 

[Gundala]

N0 h4Ve 1nternet qu0T4 4 40 minute v1De0

Anyway, for rather than ground base system that would require semi-permanent of troops, an at sea AEGIS BMD capable will be far more politically palatable. The ship could always be making port-of-call anytime they need before heading back to the sea for patrol, thus for politician it doesn't constitute as hosting force / base.

I think more toward US military aid in a form of radar, air defence systems (Nasams) and other necessary infrastructure in Natuna. In return we can link them up to their network whenever needed. Or they could give us some of their elang gurun fully upgraded setara our AM/BM to be put permanently in Natuna, it shouldnt cost them too much considering they can upgrade it locally thus give the money to their own contractor/supplier/worker for all America first economically. We can throw in couple of C130J contract to them as sweetener, we need them anyway and its already in our plan.

There alot of scenario both US & Indonesia can be played that can benefit both nations without having to step into each other toes as long as the deal conducted in equal footing and commitment.

Edit: add wording

 

[morningstar]

while for unofficial or at grassroot level they are playing the religion card

Not just religion, anything that cut our fabric, that's good. Don't care if both extreme of political spectrum are used.

For example,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1314211447799451648

Omnibus Law protest was the evidence of both extreme right and left are just same now (horseshoe theory).

Edit: misspelled

 

[morningstar]

The ship could always be making port-of-call anytime they need before heading back to the sea for patrol, thus for politician it doesn't constitute as hosting force / base.

Logistics Support Agreement is a good choice. If our politicians are asked, "Do US has base here ?", they can answer, "no". We can even go further by make Natuna or else as de facto Joint Base, by the pretext (alasan) of LSA.

But for sure, people like Connie that sok-sokan mendayung diantara dua karang will doesn't like it. Who they think they are, a saint or what?

 

[Madokafc]

the withdrawal of US from Afghanistan is a long overdue afterall, and now they can used the "limited" resources they had to build a more robust and capable presence in Pacific and gather more allies to circumvent China in Pacific and South China Sea. They throw the unworthy allies like Pakistan and Afghanistan for more larger power in Pacific, and woe a more valiant and prospective countries like India, Vietnam and Indonesia to made a distant Foreign Policy against China and her proxy.

 

[Gary]

Heh, the money they spent annually in Afghanistan could buy some serious politicians here if they need to.

Anyway Pacific is now the new Middle East.

 

[Gundala]

Logistics Support Agreement is a good choice

I had the same tought until I see the strategic placement. They already have Singapore for that, missiles/ground assets placement is aim toward Viet & Phil for obvious reason. So I think it would be beneficial for both country if we can build Natuna infrastructure to support joint military operation and make her suitable to act as forward post for future possible conflict. This is how I base my idea on enhancing the island military defence ability to support IADS for ourself and US/ally. Its relatively safer for both domestic politics and intenational politics.

Anyway Pacific is now the new Middle East

Duh amit-amit jgn sampe

 

[trishna_amrta]

I had the same tought until I see the strategic placement. They already have Singapore for that, missiles/ground assets placement is aim toward Viet & Phil for obvious reason. So I think it would be beneficial for both country if we can build Natuna infrastructure to support joint military operation and make her suitable to act as forward post for future possible conflict.

What we really need is to fortify Natuna Island similarly to that of WW2 Saipan, thus making it extremely costly for the OPFOR to assail, thus their options is either losing significant part of their force or abandon their endeavour entirely. As for building supporting infrastructure, then Pontianak as a whole is in dire need for development, because in the event of shooting war, our force in Natuna will need a place to fall back. Another factor to consider when developing Pontianak is our less favourite neighbour may not be in the same page with us.

The primary role for Natuna Islands should be as Joint Forward Operating Base that able to facilitate counterattack operation by our own force and allied partner nation.

 

[morningstar]

Heh, the money they spent annually in Afghanistan could buy some serious politicians here if they need to.

Wow... what an ultra hawkish approach lol

 

[Gundala]

What we really need is to fortify Natuna Island similarly to that of WW2 Saipan, thus making it extremely costly for the OPFOR to assail, thus their options is either losing significant part of their force or abandon their endeavour entirely. As for building supporting infrastructure, then Pontianak as a whole is in dire need for development, because in the event of shooting war, our force in Natuna will need a place to fall back. Another factor to consider when developing Pontianak is our less favourite neighbour may not be in the same page with us.

The primary role for Natuna Islands should be as Joint Forward Operating Base that able to facilitate counterattack operation by our own force and allied partner nation.

In todays balistic missiles era I dont know if that kind of heavy investment going to be worth to swallow. Unless we also introduce our own balistic missiles there to deter them as well. But we can always aim at that target in a long run while gradually improve the defence. AFAIK there were also a plan to make new Civilian port on the other side of the island.

As for Pontianak; I can only say that the AU plan to replace Hawk with more capable platform was ment to support Natuna as one of the objective. There is also a plan to create small airfield in a small island south out Natuna for UCAV. Batam is also getting the attention as well, and one small island about NE of KepRi dapet elusan dikit sepertinya. Mayan menarik kalo liat dr posisnya.

There are alot of things going on behind the scene as our military already showing effort to face the worst possible scenario. Lets just hope it wont happen at all.

 

[trishna_amrta]

In todays balistic missiles era I dont know if that kind of heavy investment going to be worth to swallow. Unless we also introduce our own balistic missiles there to deter them as well.

Pretty sure it was similar to what Eisenhower said to Diefenbaker when he was playing salesman for Boeing CIM-10 Bomarc missile

With the exception of an ICBM system, present days ballistic missile is not a magical weapon without a counter weapon. Intercepting noon ICBM system is well within the capability envelope of the latest SAM system such as the Aster-30, SM-6, THAAD, Arrow 2, etc. It's also the same thing with hypersonic weapon, due to the nature of their flight profile and variety of the law of natural world (physic) they can be countered using existing SAM platform

and one small island about NE of KepRi dapet elusan dikit sepertinya. Mayan menarik kalo liat dr posisnya.

As I often had stated, we have hundreds of unsinkable aircraft carrier, finding which one to use is the real challenge. IIRC, the last comprehensive survey we have done was back in 2014 - 2016 with the result was published in 2017 (freely downloadable for public)

 

[Gundala]

With the exception of an ICBM system, present days ballistic missile is not a magical weapon without a counter weapon. Intercepting noon ICBM system is well within the capability envelope of the latest SAM system such as the Aster-30, SM-6, THAAD, Arrow 2, etc. It's also the same thing with hypersonic weapon, due to the nature of their flight profile and variety of the law of natural world (physic) they can be countered using existing SAM platform

In theory yea, but in reality the probability is prety low. Biggest chance is when it enter mid course up, but when it already came down the chance is getting smaller and smaller. The SAM system need to have longer range and altitude to have better chance of intercepting. Imo, on paper off course, S400 is the better all rounder SAM system with various missiles combination avaiable to suit the need but surely not the export version.