News Indonesia - US - China Relation, and ASEAN. Whats going on?

NEKO

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Hm... won't it be the Taiwan Arc first?

Also please don't forget that the AUKUS is also worry some, its both good and bad for us, if US and AU have nuclear weapons sharing agreement like in Europe it will be so bad.
 

NEKO

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With US withdrawing from Afghanistan now they start trilateral security pact with AU and UK, US have seriously focused on Indo-Pac, more $ billions now can be used for their 4D chess move.
I hope somehow we can benefit from US pivot to asia just like AU, no need to be as WOW deal as with AU tho.
 

FPXAllen

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Hm... won't it be the Taiwan Arc first?

Also please don't forget that the AUKUS is also worry some, its both good and bad for us, if US and AU have nuclear weapons sharing agreement like in Europe it will be so bad.
Which one will be the first "firework" to go off is still pretty much a guess now, I presume.

But, as the prophet Muhammad PBUH said, "War is deceit", and since they know they can't just start on one front without affecting the others, this could also mean that the Southern, Eastern, and Northern fronts will start simultaneously.

In the Southern front which will involve us directly, I have this assumption that they might launch diversionary tactics in the Natuna Sea while they deal with Guam and PH first in order to advance toward us from the East.

...probably.
 

NEKO

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In the Southern front which will involve us directly, I have this assumption that they might launch diversionary tactics in the Natuna Sea while they deal with Guam and PH first in order to advance toward us from the East.
It will be good enough for them if Indonesia stays neutral, or maybe someone will try to confuse us by doing false flag attack or something against us to indirectly affect our position.

Seriously can we just don't add extra chapter in the history book about another world war, geez next generation will have to study more and during the test there will be like,
Question number 3. When did the world war 3 started? And those younger generations will answer like "something something year when there is this trends on tik tok about this dumb dancing..."
Question number 4. When did the world war 3 end? The answer "I think its coincide when there is this dumb challenge on the internet getting popular".

images
 
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GoodFridayAgreement.IDN

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as the prophet Muhammad PBUH said, "War is deceit"
And also Sun Tzu, which even said that earlier.
In the Southern front which will involve us directly, I have this assumption that they might launch diversionary tactics in the Natuna Sea while they deal with Guam and PH first in order to advance toward us from the East.
Amateur Wargaming of paragraph above

PRC: *Launch attack to Natuna Island
US: *Put their troops to PH because of both parties agreement that US can put their force temporarily (not permanent like Al Dhafra or Osan) in PH under US-PH VFA.

Basically, that first advance in Natuna is not a diversion attack, that just a crispy assault for PRC against us because US-UK-AUS doesn't have any legitimate deal with us, they will not be baited to come to Natuna. But this could be different if we have kind of NATO Article 5, that attacking 1 member country, means attacking all, so all have to react.
 
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FPXAllen

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And also Sun Tzu, which even said that earlier.
Correct. Considering that Arab traders have had business with China long before the advent of Islam, it's certainly logical to think that Sun Tzu's ideas have also been studied and adopted by them.

Basically, that first advance in Natuna is not a diversion attack, that just a crispy assault for PRC against us because US-UK-AUS doesn't have any legitimate deal with us, they will not be baited to come to Natuna. But this could be different if we have kind of NATO Article 5, that attacking 1 member country, means attacking all, so all have to react.
There was also the case when Germany attacked the "low countries" a.k.a neutral nations first before heading to France in WW2, though.

Still, good hypothetical scenario.
 

Gundala

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For China its not going to start at SCS, its going to start with Taiwan.
For China adversary its going to start at SCS.

At the currrent stage no one wants regional SEA country to be unstable (both China & US), unless one SEA country decided to go all the way to one side then the Intelegence operation might have to take place to destabilize that particular country.

But the underground, proxy & asymetrical warfare is already begun. Its going to be more of that and spec op war rather then open war.

If it happens then god knows how its going to effect, the open war between 2 nulcear capable country wont need much of amphibious strike I assume...
And those International "Cukong" group such as Soros wont allow it as it will be bad for their business :LOL:
 

GoodFridayAgreement.IDN

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Soros wont allow it as it will be bad for their business
Soros himself actually just tell what are his stance about China in WSJ, and he is not in favor of China. Even he kind of like encourage others not to invest in China anymore, if I remember correctly.

I dont know why conspiracy theorists like to vilified him. Myself see him as a successful businessman that active politicaly (*socially more correctly) through its "Open Society".

* : edit
 
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Gundala

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I dont know why conspiracy theorists like to vilified him. Myself see him as a successful businessman that active politicaly (*socially more correctly) through its "Open Society".
Its not him per-say, but the interest groups/society behind him. There are more happening underneath the surface, and the real person/interest group that is powerful enough to shake the world usually remain unseen. Same case with our beloved nation, that powerful interest groups can even alter the decission of the No.1 eventho the changes already made publicly in the media before. Even Puttin and Thrump share the same helplesness in some area in dealing with their own local interest group.

One thing that made China different is their internal interest groups can be "shut down", and Jack Ma is one of the example out of many.
 

GoodFridayAgreement.IDN

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Its not him per-say, but the interest groups/society behind him.
Who? Satanist, Reptilian, Freemason, Illuminati? That are a based formulas to make people to be swayed to the far-right and kind of weird, to the anti-imperialist tankies view even.

Doesn't mean interest groups doesn't exist, even if I have a lot of money I will be the one. Make my own Italian P2 like minus backing the far-right to fought the Red Brigade and called myself the "Banker of Gods" lol. *Or maybe even called myself "God-Emperor (my name)" lol. Damn, I'm too drowned by the imagination of power rofl.

You got powerful Islamists that want Islamized the public, you got powerful Christians that want to Evangelized the public and more.
Even Puttin and Thrump share the same helplesness in some area in dealing with their own local interest group.
Lol.... you have to add Orban too. Politicians with Far-Right tendencies shared the same values.

* : edit
 
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Gundala

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Who? Satanist, Reptilian, Freemason, Illuminati? That are a based formulas to make people to be swayed to the far-right and kind of weird, to the anti-imperialist tankies view even.

Doesn't mean interest groups doesn't exist, even if I have a lot of money I will be the one. Make my own Italian P2 like minus backing the far-right to fought the Red Brigade and called myself the "Banker of Gods" lol. *Or maybe even called myself "God-Emperor (my name)" lol. Damn, I'm too drowned by the imagination of power rofl.

You got powerful Islamists that want Islamized the public, you got powerful Christians that want to Evangelized the public and more.

Lol.... you have to add Orban too. Politicians with Far-Right tendencies shared the same values.

* : edit
Thats fine if you dont believe it. If you know who owns SWIFT banking system and who own US Federal Reserve Bank it will give abit of a clue.

As for our local group interest, its not to be underestimate as well. This one I have been experiencing my sellf and make my jaw drop. If the local one are even this powerfull I can only imagine how the overseas one is.

Anyway this is not the right place to discuss it, so this is going to be my last reply regarding this topic.
 

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