Gundala
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There are some misunderstanding about how we interpreting the news these days regarding Indonesia-US-China relations, and the main stream media isnt helping at all with their own agenda or commercial intention. I am going to try highliting some news so we can have a fair view on whats really going on. Again I am simply presenting my point of view, whether you agree or not is up to you. There is a quote saying "A fool follow public oppinion, a wise man made his own decission".
www.reuters.com
The title SCS Defence migh be misleading or can be interpreted differently. Indonesia agree for freedom of navigaion in SCS but I dont see anything regarding committing to "defence". Below is the orginal press confrence. You might want to wear headset/earset, the talk happen in 1:06:31
Keypoints are: continuing dialogue of 2015 Indonesia-US Strategic Partnership, Indonesia as ASEAN representative in ASEAN-US relation, US is important partnership to Indonesia & ASEAN, Indonesia is the largest democracy and economic in ASEAN is important assets to US engagement in area, Indonesia asking support for next year G20 Presidency. The rest is economic, covid, education, etc cooperation.
The bold wording is a sign where Indonesia position themself. I personally dont hear any South China Sea in both statement. Strategic Partnership itself has only been a paper framework since 2015 and now they are trying to make it "alive". Why now? We know that US Sec.of Def recently been "touring" to ASEAN countries (Singapore, Vietnam, Philipine) to do some diplomacy in an effort to gain support & influence. They seems to have decided to reduce their presence in middle east and focus in Asia to counter China influence. ASEAN play a key role here strategically, geopollitically and economically. Here is why
I quote;
For starters, China and ASEAN became each other's largest trading partner. In 2020, ASEAN surpassed the EU and became China's top trading partner for the first time...
In 2019 when ASEAN was the second largest trading partner of China, bilateral trade stood at 4.43 trillion yuan ($684.9 billion), while trade between ASEAN and the US totaled at $294.6 billion
China economic approach is welcome for ASEAN as their member is prioritizing in their economic development. So how about SCS and their dispute? From my perspective they might let it slight for now in favor for economic relation while also trying to arm themself in the process. Vietnam whos happened to be most vocal about China intrution is now more inline with other ASEAN members. US security approach diplomacy then starting to lose its footing in this case.
www.theedgemarkets.com
With huge numbers of trade value between ASEAN & China looks like they are trying to enhance it in ASEAN China free trade agreement (ACFTA) and hastening the ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in order to create a new driving force for growth.
How about Europe?
www.politico.eu
Pretty much the same with ASEAN, focusing more on trade/economic relation and currently reluctant to take side. Biden recent EU tour has try to convince NATO members for support. But no luck so far. I suggest to read the article below
www.euractiv.com
For now US hasnt gotten support they wanted to challenge China influence globally & regionally. Indonesia should place herself carefully and keep pushing ASEAN members to be all in the same line to counter both the Giants moves. Economic relation of ASEAN members with China is huge, the population of ASEAN+China are large enough to create huge market for them to grow. ASEAN country cant afford tension let alone open war in the region, most of them are developing countries trying to fight poverty and grow their economy. US military/security approach to the region isnt suitable for them, they better bring things with more economic value to the table.
On the other hand China and US trade value has increased in 2021 despite the tariff & trade sanction war between them. That is one fact that both of them are economically dependent in a way. And I am pretty sure both country aware that to lose those numbers will bring huge effect to their own economy. Check out the table below for 2020-2021.
www.census.gov
China aggresive move in South China Sea disturbing, but also US move to raise tension in the region. So lets be pragmatic and see the issue thru our national interest. Geopolitic play different game, cool head is needed to see the bigger picture. Indonesia and ASEAN have huge leverage to deal with both China & US to their own advantage. The question is whether ASEAN know this and able to take advantage over it? It remain to be seen.
This is the important time to build up military capability for the above reasons and not the time to slacking off. Si vis pacem para bellum.
U.S., Indonesia commit to South China Sea defense in 'strategic dialogue'
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Tuesday the launch of a "strategic dialogue" with Indonesia, and Washington said the two countries committed to working together on issues that include defending freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.
The title SCS Defence migh be misleading or can be interpreted differently. Indonesia agree for freedom of navigaion in SCS but I dont see anything regarding committing to "defence". Below is the orginal press confrence. You might want to wear headset/earset, the talk happen in 1:06:31
Keypoints are: continuing dialogue of 2015 Indonesia-US Strategic Partnership, Indonesia as ASEAN representative in ASEAN-US relation, US is important partnership to Indonesia & ASEAN, Indonesia is the largest democracy and economic in ASEAN is important assets to US engagement in area, Indonesia asking support for next year G20 Presidency. The rest is economic, covid, education, etc cooperation.
The bold wording is a sign where Indonesia position themself. I personally dont hear any South China Sea in both statement. Strategic Partnership itself has only been a paper framework since 2015 and now they are trying to make it "alive". Why now? We know that US Sec.of Def recently been "touring" to ASEAN countries (Singapore, Vietnam, Philipine) to do some diplomacy in an effort to gain support & influence. They seems to have decided to reduce their presence in middle east and focus in Asia to counter China influence. ASEAN play a key role here strategically, geopollitically and economically. Here is why
China-ASEAN ties to grow stronger despite US ‘wedge’ - Global Times
www.globaltimes.cn
I quote;
For starters, China and ASEAN became each other's largest trading partner. In 2020, ASEAN surpassed the EU and became China's top trading partner for the first time...
In 2019 when ASEAN was the second largest trading partner of China, bilateral trade stood at 4.43 trillion yuan ($684.9 billion), while trade between ASEAN and the US totaled at $294.6 billion
China economic approach is welcome for ASEAN as their member is prioritizing in their economic development. So how about SCS and their dispute? From my perspective they might let it slight for now in favor for economic relation while also trying to arm themself in the process. Vietnam whos happened to be most vocal about China intrution is now more inline with other ASEAN members. US security approach diplomacy then starting to lose its footing in this case.
Vietnam welcomes proposal to elevate ASEAN-China relationship
HANOI (Aug 3): Vietnam welcomes a proposal to upgrade the ASEAN-China relationship, Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son said at the ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held via videoconference on Tuesday as part of the 54th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM) and Related Meetings.In his remarks...
www.theedgemarkets.com
With huge numbers of trade value between ASEAN & China looks like they are trying to enhance it in ASEAN China free trade agreement (ACFTA) and hastening the ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), in order to create a new driving force for growth.
How about Europe?
Merkel pushes EU-China investment deal over the finish line despite criticism
Leaders from Brussels and Beijing are scheduled to endorse investment agreement in videoconference on Wednesday.
Pretty much the same with ASEAN, focusing more on trade/economic relation and currently reluctant to take side. Biden recent EU tour has try to convince NATO members for support. But no luck so far. I suggest to read the article below
China, the new Atlantis between the United States and Europe?
During the recent tour of US President Joe Biden to Europe, EU nations continued to resist taking sides, its leaders instead repeating the term “strategic autonomy”, writes Joël Ruet.
www.euractiv.com
For now US hasnt gotten support they wanted to challenge China influence globally & regionally. Indonesia should place herself carefully and keep pushing ASEAN members to be all in the same line to counter both the Giants moves. Economic relation of ASEAN members with China is huge, the population of ASEAN+China are large enough to create huge market for them to grow. ASEAN country cant afford tension let alone open war in the region, most of them are developing countries trying to fight poverty and grow their economy. US military/security approach to the region isnt suitable for them, they better bring things with more economic value to the table.
On the other hand China and US trade value has increased in 2021 despite the tariff & trade sanction war between them. That is one fact that both of them are economically dependent in a way. And I am pretty sure both country aware that to lose those numbers will bring huge effect to their own economy. Check out the table below for 2020-2021.
International Trade
www.census.gov
China aggresive move in South China Sea disturbing, but also US move to raise tension in the region. So lets be pragmatic and see the issue thru our national interest. Geopolitic play different game, cool head is needed to see the bigger picture. Indonesia and ASEAN have huge leverage to deal with both China & US to their own advantage. The question is whether ASEAN know this and able to take advantage over it? It remain to be seen.
This is the important time to build up military capability for the above reasons and not the time to slacking off. Si vis pacem para bellum.
