News Indonesia - US - China Relation, and ASEAN. Whats going on?

[Madokafc]

Link please?

S.1169 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Strategic Competition Act of 2021

Summary of S.1169 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Strategic Competition Act of 2021

www.congress.gov

 

[Gundala]

Below is the official Press release of Kemenlu. I try to give the topic highlight.

Whos we meeting with:

• NSA (National Security Advisor) - Jack Sullivan
• Director of CIA (Central Intelegence Agency) - Bill Burns/William Burns
• NSC (National Security Council) Coordinator Indo Pacific - Curt Campbell
• USAID
• Chair of The Senate Foreign Relations Committee - Senator Bob Menendez
• Senator Jim/James Ridge - (unknown/unclear)
• Vice Chair of The Democratic National Committee - Tammy Darkwood
• US Chamber of Commerce
• US ASEAN Business Council
• Pharmaceutical Industry/University

Discussion Topic Hiighlight:

• Strategic Dialogue - Will add significant added value for US engagement in the Region & will contribute peace, prosperity & stabiliy

Possible Interpretation: Like I said before, this is where Indonesia positioning themself by lean more towards US for strategic partnership but it should be in the frame of peace, prosperity & regional stability. Basically we say lets be strategic partner under the above condition

• Corona Virus Delta Variant
• Trade & Investment - US has positive response for Omnibus law and hope there will be more US investment coming to Indonesia. Indonesia emphasize on limited trade agreement & Importance of GSP for Indonesia

Possible Interpretation: This is to express what we want & what we need. The last GSP negotiations (which we got GSP extension) was pretty rough. Issues ranging from the existance of GPN (Garda Pembayaran Nasional) thru Sukhoi purchase has seems to be the stress point of US (publicly/un-publicly) which then melebar kemana-mana. This is the chip offer that Indonesia willing to negiotiate to secure another extension of GSP and to ahave limited trade agreemant that could benefit both nations

• International related issue - Regional issue (without specifying on SCS) and other golbal issue such Afghanistan (I know Taliban have visited Indonesia last time but I am not sure why they explicitly mention Afghanistan. On the other note Taliban is already in talked with China include Mineral exploration permit, infratructure development, etc. Expert speculate that in the next six months or so the Taliban will overun the government. Indonesia might play something behind the screen here, but I am not sure what)
• Indonesia readyness to hold next year Presidency position of G20

Other Information: France agree to support the fight of Corona Virus by giving 3 million dose of vaccine (I guess Raffale is still in order for now eh? )

Our take away:

• NSA agreed to add addition USD 30 mil of aid & theuropatic/obat-obatan worth USD 51.6 mil totalling = USD 81.6 mil = Rp 1.1 trilliun
• Indonesia is willing to work on strategic partnership to face the influence of China in the region. It is clear strategically we lean toward US more (hence the NSA & CIA Director meeting) while economically pursue the relation with Chinese. On the other note we also trying not to depend on China for trade by pursuing more economic framework with US, and this is where GSP & limited trade agreemant needed.
• No military equipment purchase nor CAATSA has been mentioned, but I am sure thats going to be talked into the strategic dialogue as it will heavily emphasize more on Security approach

 

[Madokafc]

Below is the official Press release of Kemenlu. I try to give the topic highlight.

Whos we meeting with:

• NSA (National Security Advisor) - Jack Sullivan
• Director of CIA (Central Intelegence Agency) - Bill Burns/William Burns
• NSC (National Security Council) Coordinator Indo Pacific - Curt Campbell
• USAID
• Chair of The Senate Foreign Relations Committee - Senator Bob Menendez
• Senator Jim/James Ridge - (unknown/unclear)
• Vice Chair of The Democratic National Committee - Tammy Darkwood
• US Chamber of Commerce
• US ASEAN Business Council
• Pharmaceutical Industry/University

Discussion Topic Hiighlight:

• Strategic Dialogue - Will add significant added value for US engagement in the Region & will contribute peace, prosperity & stabiliy

Possible Interpretation: Like I said before, this is where Indonesia positioning themself by lean more towards US for strategic partnership but it should be in the frame of peace, prosperity & regional stability. Basically we say lets be strategic partner under the above condition

• Corona Virus Delta Variant
• Trade & Investment - US has positive response for Omnibus law and hope there will be more US investment coming to Indonesia. Indonesia emphasize on limited trade agreement & Importance of GSP for Indonesia

Possible Interpretation: This is to express what we want & what we need. The last GSP negotiations (which we got GSP extension) was pretty rough. Issues ranging from the existance of GPN (Garda Pembayaran Nasional) thru Sukhoi purchase has seems to be the stress point of US (publicly/un-publicly) which then melebar kemana-mana. This is the chip offer that Indonesia willing to negiotiate to secure another extension of GSP and to ahave limited trade agreemant that could benefit both nations

• International related issue - Regional issue (without specifying on SCS) and other golbal issue such Afghanistan (I know Taliban have visited Indonesia last time but I am not sure why they explicitly mention Afghanistan. On the other note Taliban is already in talked with China include Mineral exploration permit, infratructure development, etc. Expert speculate that in the next six months or so the Taliban will overun the government. Indonesia might play something behind the screen here, but I am not sure what)
• Indonesia readyness to hold next year Presidency position of G20

Other Information: France agree to support the fight of Corona Virus by giving 3 million dose of vaccine (I guess Raffale is still in order for now eh? )

Our take away:

• NSA agreed to add addition USD 30 mil of aid & theuropatic/obat-obatan worth USD 51.6 mil totalling = USD 81.6 mil = Rp 1.1 trilliun
• Indonesia is willing to work on strategic partnership to face the influence of China in the region. It is clear strategically we lean toward US more (hence the NSA & CIA Director meeting) while economically pursue the relation with Chinese. On the other note we also trying not to depend on China for trade by pursuing more economic framework with US, and this is where GSP & limited trade agreemant needed.
• No military equipment purchase nor CAATSA has been mentioned, but I am sure thats going to be talked into the strategic dialogue as it will heavily emphasize more on Security approach

US foreign aid in health care and vaccine efforts is not in work order of NSA , not at all. That's not their jobs.

Just like i said, you should not know what they are exactly talking about unless they Made further disclosure. Vaccine shot aid, 30 million US Dollar aid is not the primary purpose of our MoFA direct visit there, not at all. The USAID organization already giving such number every year or more

 

[FPXAllen]

Require the U.S. Agency for Global Media to take certain actions to support independent journalism and combat censorship in countries where Chinese Communist Party or other entities are promoting disinformation = Battle between FAKE NEWS outlets where both sides are equally FAKE.

Since this point is directly related to what I do for living, let me just add my point here.

I'm well aware of the fact that both the US and China are actively engaging in disinformation warfare. The "support for independent journalism and combat cencorship" as stated above could very well means that we will receive a lot more of fabricated and directed informations from the US while China will be pouring more of its resources in underground news and social media campaigns.

I can't say I'm happy with this. They're equally sucks although in different ways. However, if it's about the US, I can still find the 'middle ground' or 'voices of reasons' to balance and compare the flow of information from the US government with, while I can only take anything from China 'as is' since everything is controlled by the state.

Needless to remind you all that we've already experienced decades where the government was the only publicly and legally available information source and how hard life was for journalists who were still trying to keep their integrity during those times here.

 

[trishna_amrta]

• Director of CIA (Central Intelegence Agency) - Bill Burns/William Burns
• NSC (National Security Council) Coordinator Indo Pacific - Curt Campbell
• Chair of The Senate Foreign Relations Committee - Senator Bob Menendez
• Senator Jim/James Ridge - (unknown/unclear)

For all-purpose and intend, they are the one whose decide the direction of foreign policy. And from the look & sound of it so far, I'm guessing there is an upgrade of relation at strategic level that would require an update of foreign policy toward

 

[trishna_amrta]

US foreign aid in health care and vaccine efforts is not in work order of NSA , not at all. That's not their jobs.

I'm guessing they're merely taking a piece of NSA budget to expedite aid funding because rewriting the already allocated budget for USAAID is not practical in such short notice.

 

[Madokafc]

For all-purpose and intend, they are the one whose decide the direction of foreign policy. And from the look & sound of it so far, I'm guessing there is an upgrade of relation at strategic level that would require an update of foreign policy toward

If there is DSCA notice for F35, F15 and MK 41 VLS there is indeed some "upgrade" of DLC happened

 

[schuimpjes]

The "support for independent journalism

The support of independent jurnalism is more about they will support journalists that are has the same views with them, for this case, Pro Democracy. Possibly Apple Daily contributors will be supported too, If that bill passed.

This kind of thing is not new. Theodor Heuss, West Germany first president, was also the one that supported by US during post Nazi Germany and early Cold War. He was one of the German that was on the "white list". He was co-editor and frequent contributor in Rhein Neckar Zietung (this newspaper was considered as a strong instrument of democracy then) and also made his party won the election, the FDP. His view was, anti-Nazi (Far-Right) and also anti-communist (Far-Left), a perfect ideology during Cold War era and denazification of Germany.

 

[trishna_amrta]

If there is DSCA notice for F35, F15 and MK 41 VLS there is indeed some "upgrade" of DLC happened

Aren't all that also require a budgetary upgrade from our side firstAnyway, this kind of policy repositioning will take time

 

[trishna_amrta]

Since this point is directly related to what I do for living, let me just add my point here.

I'm well aware of the fact that both the US and China are actively engaging in disinformation warfare. The "support for independent journalism and combat cencorship" as stated above could very well means that we will receive a lot more of fabricated and directed informations from the US while China will be pouring more of its resources in underground news and social media campaigns.

I can't say I'm happy with this. They're equally sucks although in different ways. However, if it's about the US, I can still find the 'middle ground' or 'voices of reasons' to balance and compare the flow of information from the US government with, while I can only take anything from China 'as is' since everything is controlled by the state.

Ever consider to developing your own ground sourcesThis way you can get the raw out of something rather than pre-formatted version of it.Even today I rely on mostly in combination of ground sources (in several countries) + technical efforts to get the raw I need. The ground source give me the context of the given situation, which is something that my technical efforts couldn't provide.

Let's say there is a journalist out there who is writing an unbiased story while giving the audience the proper context of the situation, will the editor willing to publish their story?

 

[FPXAllen]

The support of independent jurnalism is more about they will support journalists that are has the same views with them, for this case, Pro Democracy. Possibly Apple Daily contributors will be supported too, If that bill passed.

You kinda missed the point I was trying to make here.

I mean, how about pro-democracy journalists who are just as critical to US foreign policies as to China's then? In short, those two powers are progressively making this world as their binary playground. It's "either you with us or against us" all over again but this time it's coming from both of them.

I know that we need balancing power to check China's increasingly aggresive conducts in the North Natuna Sea and SCS, and for that I wholly support our efforts to strengthen and increase our strength and influence, whether economically, diplomatically and military. But we also know that major US news outlets have had and will continue to have their hands "dirty" in spreading "news" - like Nasyirah 'confession' and the Xinjiang issues.

Then again, anything that comes from China's own 'sources' are merely different wordings from what the state has issued so in this regard, they're both are "11-12" to one another. The only difference is that there are still ways to have reliable although unsanctioned information from the US or Western sources while there is none of it from China.

So will this makes the "independent journalists" (as what it truly stands especially in this case) being marginalized or, worse, being put as "against us" by the US? Even if this kind of jounalists are firmly pro-democracy and will fight tooth and nails againts an ultranationalist China since they refuse to be reduced to only serve the US interests?

 

[FPXAllen]

Ever consider to developing your own ground sourcesThis way you can get the raw out of something rather than pre-formatted version of it.Even today I rely on mostly in combination of ground sources (in several countries) + technical efforts to get the raw I need. The ground source give me the context of the given situation, which is something that my technical efforts couldn't provide.

Let's say there is a journalist out there who is writing an unbiased story while giving the audience the proper context of the situation, will the editor willing to publish their story?

Yeah. That's what I've been doing - or at least still trying to do for the past year or so. If not for the health reason, I could've done it from way earlier.

That said, this damn Chinese virus has severely limited my chance to do so, so the progress is still slow.

Re: unbiased story: I'm somewhat lucky because I don't have to deal and write political news stories since my media is mostly about defence technology. But to really answer your question, although said media tend to be small and highly specialized in the West but they do exist.

 

[schuimpjes]

I mean, how about pro-democracy journalists who are just as critical to US foreign policies as to China's then?

So will this makes the "independent journalists" (as what it truly stands especially in this case) being marginalized or, worse, being put as "against us" by the US? Even if this kind of jounalists are firmly pro-democracy and will fight tooth and nails againts an ultranationalist China since they refuse to be reduced to only serve the US interests?

Just let the nature (demand of consumer) answer that maybe. But at first, US must help the "Pro-Democracy camp" first.

 

[Gundala]

For all-purpose and intend, they are the one whose decide the direction of foreign policy. And from the look & sound of it so far, I'm guessing there is an upgrade of relation at strategic level that would require an update of foreign policy toward

Our position today remind me of 1960's clash between Communist vs Democracy and how we can benefit militarily from it. On the other hand it also remind me on how both forces tried to destabilize the zone by conducting intelegence operation, and this what worry me the most if somehow US or China got themself unable to pursue diplomatic talk/approach. China is also need to stop their aggresive move and stop treating SCS like their own freaking lake or something.

We have more leverage right now and I agree with you that from the look of it we going upgrade the strategic relation into something better. Tho like you said it is going to need some time.

 

[trishna_amrta]

Yeah. That's what I've been doing - or at least still trying to do for the past year or so. If not for the health reason, I could've done it from way earlier.

That said, this damn Chinese virus has severely limited my chance to do so, so the progress is still slow.

You can develop your ground source trough personal friend, associates, relative, etc. That is actually how I develop mine, they are mostly either my personal friend (teman kuliah, teman nongkrong / main), relatives, etc who happen to live abroad. Although I can also inquire from "professional sources" (whose also happen to be old friend or associates), they tend to move (transfer) between assignment / posting pretty often

 

[Gundala]

from gambit in the other forum....on why Indonesia should not cave to Chinese pressure in the SCS.

View attachment 27417

Well said from Gambit. I tried to point that out as well when I was active in that forum, but others still believe its mainly about getting natural resources. They are not wrong about natural resources but it only comes as bonus and tools to control the party whos EEZ been taken away from them. Perhaps their next step would be joint production/cooperation only with China or you all can kiss your natural resources around your EEZ good bye. Yes it include natural resources but thats not the main goal.

SCS is basically a strategic move to secure their energy/resources life line and have the ability to influence other nations whos using it, as China 80% of their energy import is coming via SCS being seen by them as important to secure. A week of a block would be devistating for their Industry & economy. It also inline with all those roads, ports & pipeline their trying to build under BRI project to have other mean of route to secure their economy & energy movement. To counter regional resistance their inducting Economic insentive which is hard to turn down by ASEAN thats when the free trade agreemant & RCEP took place. Pretty dang slick & smart move I must say

Our cooperation with India in securing Malaka enterance can be good balancer specially if India can secure their plan to build military base station in Andaman Island. Another strategic move from Indonesia is also to secure Malaka straight by asking Malaysia and Singapore to join the effort, but guess who was "inresponsive" to this matter? Its Malaysian Govt for whatever reason and without Malaysia saying yes its basically a no go for the plan to happen.

China rise is good for a balancing act against 3 decades of unchecked US/Western global domination, but geopolitics demanded that for Indonesia's security, we must have an opposing western forces in the Pacific.

Couldnt agree more

 

[trishna_amrta]

Our cooperation with India in securing Malaka enterance can be good balancer specially if India can secure their plan to build military base station in Andaman Island. Another strategic move from Indonesia is also to secure Malaka straight by asking Malaysia and Singapore to join the effort, but guess who was "inresponsive" to this matter? Its Malaysian Govt for whatever reason and without Malaysia saying yes its basically a no go for the plan to happen.

ASEAN has been known to work with the - (minus) (a member state) style arrangement. We can always work it out with Singapore sans Beruk Malon. Its not like that Beruk Malon can do anything about it either.

 

[FPXAllen]

ASEAN has been known to work with the - (minus) (a member state) style arrangement. We can always work it out with Singapore sans Beruk Malon. Its not like that Beruk Malon can do anything about it either.

Sorry for being off topic, but sometimes I wonder what's up with our jiran up there really? I mean, even compared to the Philippines with all the brouahaha* surrounding their military modernization program and arms acquisition projects, the AFP still shows some progress from time to time while I'm not seeing as much progress with the TDM. Sure, they will receive six light scout attack helos this year that was ordered six years ago as well as opening a tender for 18 LIFT aircraft recently, but these still feel anemic in comparison.

*Of course, I don't mean that our own defence projects / acquisition programs are totally free from disruptions, but well, you got my point.

 

[Gary]

Sorry for being off topic, but sometimes I wonder what's up with our jiran up there really? I mean, even compared to the Philippines with all the brouahaha* surrounding their military modernization program and arms acquisition projects, the AFP still shows some progress from time to time while I'm not seeing as much progress with the TDM. Sure, they will receive six light scout attack helos this year that was ordered six years ago as well as opening a tender for 18 LIFT aircraft recently, but these still feel anemic in comparison.

*Of course, I don't mean that our own defence projects / acquisition programs are totally free from disruptions, but well, you got my point.

Malaysia is in the process of finishing their Gowinds. Malaysia had done more to the collective security of ASEAN than the Philippines, no doubt.

 

[trishna_amrta]

Sorry for being off topic, but sometimes I wonder what's up with our jiran up there really? I mean, even compared to the Philippines with all the brouahaha* surrounding their military modernization program and arms acquisition projects, the AFP still shows some progress from time to time while I'm not seeing as much progress with the TDM. Sure, they will receive six light scout attack helos this year that was ordered six years ago as well as opening a tender for 18 LIFT aircraft recently, but these still feel anemic in comparison.

*Of course, I don't mean that our own defence projects / acquisition programs are totally free from disruptions, but well, you got my point.

You first need to understand the underlying historical, cultural, domestic politic, and geopolitic aspects that shape their line of thinking

From historical aspect is this :

While from cultural aspect, one thing I've notice and very prominent is their entitled mentality. For us Indonesia, we gain our independence trough struggle, be that in arms or diplomatic. While for (censored by mod), it was given to them on a silver platter. Moreover, their entitled mentality making them lazy to do any task that they believe is below them. For example, until a year ago, I was still under contractual obligation to provide technical support to certain place at peninsula which involve me to be ready on call to hop in to the next flight from Surabaya to somewhere in (which I will not mention) just to do 4 hours worth of work that actually is best to be done by local. I've tried to find a willing local to do the job (quite mundane job actually), unfortunately their entitled mentality seem to always get i the way.

From domestic politic side, their politicians are still selling how inferior Indon compare to Malayu narrative. And their target audience is more than happy to swallow it without a second though (no surprise there). Moreover, telling their public that there are invader others than is knocking their door just won't sell well, because it will expose how inept & how badly managed their entire defence & security establishment has been all this time.

While from geopolitic aspect, they're still relying on FPDA backing if things ever went south. Again, this is the result of their entitled mentality.