Interesting article by Levent Kemal:
Soçi’deki Erdoğan-Putin görüşmesinden sonra yapılan açıklamalarda İdlib’ten çok ekonomik, teknolojik ve askeri-teknik iş birliği konuları öne çıktı. Peki İdlib’te ne olacak? Görüşme hakkında bilgilendirilmiş güvenlik kaynaklarına göre bazı teknik güncellemeler ile statüko devam edecek. Buradaki...
serbestiyet.com
To sum up, he says that any likely exchange between Russian and Turkey regarding land swaps would likely be Turkey giving away areas south of the M4 highway, most notably Arbain and parts of the Zawiya Mountain in exchange for Al-Darbasiyah and Amuda - with the potential to ask for areas further east Al-Qahtaniyah and
Al-Malikiyah.
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Notheless, he argues that if Turkey commits to this exchange, TR will no longer have any meaning full way of defending Idlib (and therefore unable to stop 3.5 million refugees heading to the border) should Russia and Assad decide they want all of Idlib. (Implying that any deal with Russia in this respect would mean de facto surrender.)
Accordingly, he believes that Tel-Rifat and Manbij are out of question, given that Russia's main policy in Syria is to form 'buffer zones' to protect important cities such as Aleppo. Giving away T-R and Manbij would mean contridicting their entire strategic policy.......
Furthermore, he expects any exchange/operation to take place before winter sets in, otherwise Russia will wait until Spring - adding more pressure on Turkey.
