TR Economy & Updates

[Xenon54]

Erdogan: I was not there when the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank were falling, I was the President




Explaining that the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserve was 27.5 billion dollars at that time, Erdoğan said, "During my prime ministry, we increased this foreign exchange reserve to 135 billion dollars. Later, there was a decrease, I was absent. I was the President."



Anyway he admits now we are worse position than 2002 as currents reserves minus 30billion USD.

Erdoğan: Döviz rezervinde bir düşüş yaşandı, yoktum, cumhurbaşkanıydım

Erdoğan: Döviz rezervinde bir düşüş yaşandı, yoktum, cumhurbaşkanıydım

t24.com.tr

"Ben yoktum"

Its never his fault.

 

[Turko]

Its never his fault.

Son-in-law's fault

 

[Xenon54]

Son-in-law's fault

Nah its the garderner of his palace whos fault.

 

[TheInsider]

BTW this policy never worked before both in Türkiye and in other countries. Every country that adopted this policy ended in economic crisis or bankruptcy. IMHO Erdo will probably stop this policy after the elections. Türkiye can probably sustain this policy for 2-3 years before things go south. If next year loss of the TL against the US can be kept around %50 I call this a great success. In normal conditions, next year, I expect TL to depreciate by %100 against USD because of high inflation and FED interest rate increases. We will end this year somewhere between %70 to %80.

 

[Manomed]

Erk Acarer: "Istanbul New Airport, Çelebi Cargo building, Import bonded area… Sacks weighing 1.5 tons. Gözen Security took delivery. They are full of dollars.

Central Bank is written on the bags. Allegedly, the plane arrived from the UAE yesterday afternoon. The country is being sold."

 

[Xenon54]

Erk Acarer: "Istanbul New Airport, Çelebi Cargo building, Import bonded area… Sacks weighing 1.5 tons. Gözen Security took delivery. They are full of dollars.

Central Bank is written on the bags. Allegedly, the plane arrived from the UAE yesterday afternoon. The country is being sold."

View attachment 37566

Well to be fair, this picture could be anything, maybe its 400kg pastirma from Kayseri?

 

[HTurk]

Erk Acarer: "Istanbul New Airport, Çelebi Cargo building, Import bonded area… Sacks weighing 1.5 tons. Gözen Security took delivery. They are full of dollars.

Central Bank is written on the bags. Allegedly, the plane arrived from the UAE yesterday afternoon. The country is being sold."

View attachment 37566

How do you think is physical Forex imported? By teleportation?

 

[Manomed]

How do you think is physical Forex imported? By teleportation?

Not my statement copied and pasted from somewhere else

 

[Manomed]

Well to be fair, this picture could be anything, maybe its 400kg pastirma from Kayseri?

Speaking about pastırma that shit became expensive af

 

[Saithan]

Central Bank issues FX rates for new scheme - Latest News

The Turkish Central Bank on Dec. 23 released the first issuance of currency rates to be used as a basis for a new mechanism introduced to protect Turkish Lira deposit accounts against fluctuations in the exchange change markets.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

I'm thinking the government probably needs FX currency for all their projects, if there are issues with lending money from abroad. Which could explain the model, and why people start going back to TL. People are guarenteed their value no matter how bad or well TL performs.

It'd be real interesting to see if future government projects are still done in foreign currency.

 

[AWP]

If the lira stabilize at ( USD= 11 - 8 Lira ) , would the 4250 TL minimum wage will be enough or that depends on the inflation ?

 

[Bogeyman]

Foreks Bilgi İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş

Foreks Bilgi İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş

www.foreks.com

Dollar/TRY fell to 10.67.

 

[Agha Sher]

Foreks Bilgi İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş

Foreks Bilgi İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş

www.foreks.com

Dollar/TRY fell to 10.67.

10.38 now and keeps falling.

 

[Lool]

This is bloody insane!!
This currency is even way more volatile than bitcoin
In just 3 days, the dollar dropped from 18 to 10.5. Purely insane!!

Anyway, the Turkish Central Bank will probably intervene and push it back to the range of 11.5 to 12.5; in order to achieve a balance in trade and a continued current account surplus

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473977153649840131

 

[Zafer]

This is bloody insane!!
This currency is even way more volatile than bitcoin
In just 3 days, the lira dropped from 18 to 10.5. Purely insane!!

Anyway, the Turkish Central Bank will probably intervene and push it back to the range of 11.5 to 12.5; in order to achieve a balance in trade and a continued current account surplus

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473977153649840131

It is the dollar that has dropped not the Turkish Lira.

 

[Lool]

It is the dollar that has dropped not the Turkish Lira.

Thx, I have fixed it

 

[Turko]

Although Erdoğan again n changed economic model which based on export and cheap labour force, I'm happy with the drop but they could have done it when exchange rates were 7-8-9.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473616134213619713

If they had increased interest rates in TL enough to deter foreign exchange, instead of interest rate cuts, these games would not have been necessary; Banks would pay the interest.



now they are dumping the interest- that the banks have to pay -on the treasury of the whole society. The interest burden of the banks is on the whole society.
great injustice, even immorality

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473979222523744259

Someone who entered this system rushing yesterday opened an account of 12,348 lira for 1,000 dollars.
If this person wants to close his account today, the bank pays 11,640 liras for his 1,000 dollars.
Because the rate announced by the CB for the KKM account is 12,3480 yesterday and 11,6399 today.
Is the risk comprehensible ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473927022737072130

January, February-March: In these 3 months, the CPI increase will be at least 20 percentage points. How will you protect your savings against inflation in these 3 months?
If the dollar becomes 14.4 TL at the end of March, the dollar will protect you.
"New product" Is this possible with implicit interest?
Hard!
Is there any bank that gives 20% interest for 3 months?
Exchange? Gold?, Real estate?

Eyvah diyecekler! Ekonomistler dolar kuru için 3 Ocak’ı işaret etti

Dolar kuru için ateşle oynanıyor uyarısı geldi. Ünlü ekonomistler dolar kuru için 3 Ocak'ta kritik veriye işaret ederek 'eyvah diyecekler' yorumunda bulundu. Dolar kuru için çarpıcı açıklamalar...

www.milligazete.com.tr

"Even if inflation rises to 25 percent, if the exchange rate stays at these levels, which I guess will. They are trying to make it more stable. What will happen then?

People will start to lose in real terms.
January 3 will cause people to take the hat and put it in front of them and calculate. People'll say wow. I get 15% interest. They will not buy anything from the dollar rate under these conditions. Even if the person does, he will get small numbers. What if the dollar is 13? Because there is serious inflation in the middle. That's where the breaking point could be January 3.
On January 3, this account will confuse people."

 

[Saithan]

Putin'den Merkez Bankası'na 'faiz' mesajı: Sonumuz Türkiye gibi olur

Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin, her sene düzenlenen yıl sonu basın toplantısında gündeme ilişkin açıklamalarda bulundu.

www.veryansintv.com

Even Russia is using Turkey as a horror example. Everyone who rejoices that the TL is gaining strength should remember that it's in exchange for a big snowball ahead of us. The cost of the governments policy is going to hit like a sledgehammer in the future. like @TheInsider pointed out this isn't a policy that should be continued more than one year or so, but without reforms and anything only after elections and new government will proper reforms be made.

 

[Lool]

Even Russia is using Turkey as a horror example. Everyone who rejoices that the TL is gaining strength should remember that it's in exchange for a big snowball ahead of us. The cost of the governments policy is going to hit like a sledgehammer in the future. like @TheInsider pointed out this isn't a policy that should be continued more than one year or so, but without reforms and anything only after elections and new government will proper reforms be made.

Let the Russians say what they want, the guy is a dictator who changes the constitution every term; in order to give him another term. Like hell, Under Putin, Russia's constitution probably changed the most worldwide in less than a decade or two and unlike Turkey which has a democracy, Putin is set to win by 70%+ every time he goes to the the polls

Rn, if the govt can sustain the 11.5-12.5 range for a month or two, I believe Turkey may finally achieve a trade surplus. This means that the major source of deficit will be gone and the economy will be stable at this range (without resorting to other dollar revenues like tourism) until gas independecy which will then propel the lira to 5 per dollar. Not only that, but announcing a surplus in trade balance, will motivate those who short the lira to start investing again; thus, a nice temporary source of hot money

However, does the govt have enough reserves to sustain this level for around 2 months or not is the question to be asked

 

[Turko]

HSBC: Central Bank may have sold $7 billion without disclosing it to the market


HSCB Portfolio pointed out that the reason behind the decline in the dollar after Erdogan's cabinet meeting statements was the Central Bank's sale of dollars to the market. Stating that the Central Bank may have sold 7 billion dollars to the market, HSBC Portfolio said that these sales made under the protocol in 2017 were not sustainable.
Signs that the Central Bank's foreign exchange sales are behind the sharp decline in the dollar after AKP President Erdogan's announcement that there will be exchange rate difference in time deposits are getting stronger. HCBS Portfolio stated that they calculated a decrease of 7 billion dollars in the net reserves of the Central Bank on the Monday and the day after the decision was announced. However, it was noted that this is not sustainable.

According to the news in Sözcü, HSBC Asset Management drew attention to the issue in its bulletin published today.

"Using the Central Bank's daily balance sheet data and swap data, we calculate that the swap-free net reserve level decreased by 3.6 billion dollars on Monday and 3.4 billion dollars on Tuesday, for a total of 7 billion dollars," the bulletin said.

HSBC: Merkez Bankası piyasaya açıklamadan 7 milyar dolar satmış olabilir

HSCB Portföy, Erdoğan’ın kabine toplantısı açıklamaları ardından dolarda yaşanan düşüşün arkasında, Merkez Bankası’nın piyasaya dolar satması olduğuna işaret etti. Merkez Bankası’nın piyasaya 7 milyar dolar satmış olabileceğini belirten HSBC Portföy, 2017’deki protokol kapsamında yapılan bu...

www.birgun.net

2020 REMINDER: NOT SUSTAINABLE

HSBC Portfolio said, “The possible support of the Central Bank for the sale of foreign currency to the TL may cause the TL to follow a stable course for a while”, emphasizing that this situation is not sustainable. It should not be forgotten that it cannot continue for a long time.”

The bulletin also warned that “Besides this, possible increases in the budget deficit and monetary base with the implementation of foreign currency-indexed TL deposits stand before us as potential risk factors for TL beyond the very short term”.

ECONOMIST GÜRSES ALSO WROTE

Economist Uğur Gürses also referred to the background of the 'value gain' in TL in his article yesterday. Gürses said, "While 7 billion dollars were sold in order to reduce it from 18 TL to 12-13 TL, it was explained that 'citizens sold' on their own, without ever mentioning public foreign exchange sales in propaganda channels."