Indonesia Casual Discussion Warkop Indonesia

[Mejikuhibiu]

From defensopedia ig say that ukraine has taking back mariupol and shchastya. n 40 ukraine soldier has been killed

 

[Gary]

Mariupol never fall in the first place

 

[Umigami]

Disini ada yg tahu dimana bisa lihat peta update konflik?

 

[NEKO]

View attachment 40188

Complain about it on 4chan instead of checking it on the news.
As expected from anon.

 

[Gary]

Disini ada yg tahu dimana bisa lihat peta update konflik?

Uklivereport

 

[keadno]

Baru tau ada live stream.

Btw itu BTR putar balik, sekitar 15mnt sebelumnya ada Pantsir menuju kiev.

 

[Umigami]

Damn banyak banget helikoper Rusia yg keliling Ukraina

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496809383929524230

Mudah mudahan aja mereka dapat banyak stinger

 

[NEKO]

Damn banyak banget helikoper Rusia yg keliling Ukraina

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496809383929524230

Imagine if this guy carry manpads instead of camera.

 

[R4duga]

looks like the ukrainians already started the counter attack

 

[HellFireIndo]

If done properly Ukraine could and should hold Kharkiv and many major cities for a year or two. If the rebels could hold Aleppo for almost 5 year and Isis could hold Mosul for 9 months. Ukraine, whatever discrepancy in weaponry it has should hold the city for that long I'm optimistic. Kiev and Kharkiv is quite a big city.

The keyword here is done properly.

Not a chance if we assume Russia is eager to launch an intensive saturation attack, confining themselves to Kyiv will only present a juicy target for the Russians. The Ukrainians will commit a blunder by retreating to any single point because that's literally putting themselves into a corner. What happens next is a siege, a siege is a terrible thing, even if the attacker ultimately retreats after a time, the defender would be in far worse condition by then. That's assuming they gonna win, but they cannot even resist the Russian advance, and instead break immediately.

So the idea to retreat and try to hold this or that city and expect to successfully hold it for 2 years is an unrealistic scenario. More so pulling that idea when Russia is master of artillery, where on the very first day of the war they are able to saturate multiple cities at once, confining troops only to Kyiv and Kharkiv will also allow the Russian to trap, and concentrate fire on only a few key positions. This will benefit the Russians instead, it is a blunder that will make the Russians basically checkmate Ukrainian military (the imaginary version with unlimited morale).

This is literally a repeat of the 1870 France-Prussia war, where the French were losing on the open battle and they instead retreat to Sedan and Paris with that exact same thinking. Then they lose anyway, can only hold for a few months under constant German artillery attack before surrendering. The French were pinned down, unable to get out, and the Germans practically can do anything in France. Heck, they mocked the French by coronating their Emperor at Versailles, showing that they practically beat the French even before the war ended, that's just how big the blunder was.

If a plan cannot survive idiots, cowards, tired and starving soldiers, then the plan is bad and fragile. Not all leaders and commanders are geniuses and no one should expect them to be ("done properly"). Different contexts also matter as unconventional war cannot compare to conventional one, in scale, in intensity, in tactics, in resource, in social-political factors. ME Militias fighting ISIS, is not the same as Ukraine fighting Russia, one is undisciplined soldier vs rebel group, one is military vs military in a full-scale military invasion.

 

[R4duga]

btw "Asosiasi Produsen Tepung Terigu Indonesia (Aptindo) mencatat, Ukraina adalah pemasok gandum terbesar kedua untuk Indonesia, setelah Australia. Dan Indonesia bergantung pada pasokan gandum impor."

https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/...i-ancaman-pangan-ri-saat-ukraina-rusia-perang

expect the bread price to increase ?

 

[Umigami]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496849053824471041

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496849053824471041

bisa bertahan berapa lama tu Ukraine

 

[Mejikuhibiu]

bisa bertahan berapa lama tu Ukraine

Mungkin 1 atau 2 hari lg.. di ig defenseview disebut konvoi militer rusia dihajar habis dfn javelin.
Dan Nato tidak akan mengirimkan pasukan tempur ke ukraina.. langkah bijak dr nato nurut gw.. stock market rusia sdh anjlok 50% perhari ini..

 

[Lordimperator]

Antara

rusia sdh anjlok 50% perhari ini

Ukrain kalah duluan atau ekonomi rusia jatuh mana dulu nih

 

[Mejikuhibiu]

Antara
Ukrain kalah duluan atau ekonomi rusia jatuh mana dulu nih

Ukraine fall first but russia will have long period of impact w economic and resources sanction..
Itu tulisan stock market kenapa di ilangin

 

[Madokafc]

Antara
Ukrain kalah duluan atau ekonomi rusia jatuh mana dulu nih

Tergantung respon UN, NATO dan Uni Eropa. Tapi menurut gua pribadi negara negara kek Polandia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Rumania, Hungaria dkk pasti bakalan ngirim support medis, senjata dan bakalan ada "volunteer" yang dikirim ke Ukraina. Mereka bakalan bertindak duluan ketimbang negara negara NATO seperti Inggris, Perancis Jerman atau bahkan USA. Ini berkaitan dengan prospek ancaman Russia yang nyata buat mereka

 

[Lordimperator]

Polandia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Rumania, Hungaria

Pasti ini negara, visegrad, sesama bekas ussr

 

[Lordimperator]

Ukraine fall first but russia will have long period of impact w economic and resources sanction..
Itu tulisan stock market kenapa di ilangin

Kudos to ukraini yg sampe darah penghabisan, rip korban civillian

 

[RajaSultanKing]

Tergantung respon UN, NATO dan Uni Eropa. Tapi menurut gua pribadi negara negara kek Polandia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Rumania, Hungaria dkk pasti bakalan ngirim support medis, senjata dan bakalan ada "volunteer" yang dikirim ke Ukraina. Mereka bakalan bertindak duluan ketimbang negara negara NATO seperti Inggris, Perancis Jerman atau bahkan USA. Ini berkaitan dengan prospek ancaman Russia yang nyata buat mereka

yang di bold sepertinya gak akan terlalu bermain di konflik ini mengingat mereka juga punya hubungan baik dengan Rusia ditambah juga beberapa warga mereka yang right-wing garis keras ada yang jadi volunteer di sisi DPR/LPR

kemungkinan besar baltic states (estii, latvia, lithuania), Poland dan Romania yang bakal mulai massive mobilization

lagipula EU terutama Jerman, Prancis, UK sama Nordic States diem2 mereka juga punya ketergantungan sama gas Rusia, kalo di cut sama Rusia mau masak dan generate electricity pake apa mereka? kembali ke batu bara? ntar diamuk SJW