Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Joe Shearer

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Where are the Russian army professionals? Is Russia using mixed brigades with both volunteers and conscripts :ROFLMAO: I thought conscripts would only be used for backline logistics and other non-combat roles. At the same time there were videos of Russian SOF getting beaten the hell out of in Kharkiv and other cities.
Or maybe they lost most soldiers in the daily VDV suicide drop.
This is an armchair based reply: please discount suitably.

The backbone of any conscript system is the NCO. New recruits come on board, and are licked into shape over anywhere between one month and three. The conscript service in Russia is currently 12 months.

The missing element is the contract soldier, neither full flag-service of 18 years, nor 12-month conscript, but something in between. These are the ones causing problems.

A short look at Wikipedia, obviously not the most reliable guide to anything at all under the Sun, shows two ominous features - at least HALF-A-DOZEN reform attempts since the fall of the Soviet Union, and repeated confusion over the war-fighting structures and processes of the new Russian Army, or Russian Ground Forces.

Special Forces are different from the regular 'grunts'.

IF there is any interest, I can summarise in an hour or two the situation currently prevailing, just before the invasion. It is impossible to see them gaining in any possible way whatever number they put in the field. This was not assessed earlier, but is apparent on a more detailed reading.
 

Joe Shearer

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The Russian ministry of defence claimed they only use professional and contract soldiers in Ukraine. :ROFLMAO:
If they are telling the truth, then they are in big trouble. This is incompetent war-fighting.
 

Joe Shearer

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Not every systems can be delivered and become operational under high intensity war under short time.
Presumably they will be delivered to operators who have operated and who have lost to enemy fire or to other reasons their original systems. It may not take all that much time.
 

Joe Shearer

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That's strange,
assuming that this map is true, Russian controlled area is getting bigger and bigger and yet most of you guys keep posting how great the Ukrainian destroying Russian asset
it's kind a confusing things to me
It is possible to reconcile these two facts.

First, the Ukrainian forces may destroy a lot of Russian assets but still not bring them to a standstill. The Russians may have more than can be overwhelmed.

Second, as attrition continues, quality soldiers will be killed off, and more and more of lower quality troops will deploy.

Thirdly, this, if it is happening, will point to continued loss of space - the Ukrainians too will be suffering attrition - by the Ukrainians, and continued loss of assets by the Russians.

Fourthly, this should theoretically continue until Russia runs out of assets and stops moving, or until Ukraine sustains so much attrition, or loses all the space they have.
 

Joe Shearer

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Some Russian units have put down their arms and refused to fight, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
This may answer some questions, but the source is the Pentagon. While we all assume that the Pentagon is being scrupulously honest and has always been scrupulously honest, they may be under orders.
 

Joe Shearer

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Erdogan is brilliantly playing both sides.

The West thinks that he supports Ukraine with closing the Straits, but in fact he is closing the Straits for NATO, because the Russian Black Sea Fleet is already in the Black Sea.

Russian ships doesnt need to pass the Straits anymore. Thats why Turkey was waiting with the closure, because some ships of the Russian Black See Fleet was still in the East Med.

And if something from the Latakia Port need to go to the Black Sea, the Russians can just fly over it with a plane from Syria to Crimea.

But the navy of the US, UK, France, Greece or other EU or NATO countries may DEFINITELY not pass the Straits.

So Russia has now a FREE GAME in the Black Sea.
True, but NATO does not necessarily want to go into the Black Sea. Their stand is very clear; they are going to sit this one out.
 

Joe Shearer

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Putin was probably expecting some half-arsed sanctions à la the ones Russia had to face after annexing Crimea.

Until recently he thought that Europe could not risk the cutting of Russian gas and oil and I bet he wasn't expecting such harsh measures.

Now Russia is getting sanctions left and right and as a result, the Ruble is falling hard.

The Putin administration claims that they don't have assets in the west but the sanctions and boycotts have taken an insane level beyond freezing personal assets of some individuals in the government.

Commercial, art sector, sports, tech, political, industrial, touristic and travel embargoes and boycotts an addition to military and financial support to Ukraine, plus some of sentimental value like shelving Mr. Putin's honorary presidency of the Judo federation, are going to cause some serious damage to Russian economy and international position and prestige.

Putin and his puppets and followers are looking for the old Soviet glory and they may just get it if that means their total isolation from the western world.

It's only a matter of time before you meet a Russian who hasn't seen a banana for years.
Painful to read. The Russian woman in the street didn't deserve this. They don't deserve Putin.
 

Bogeyman 

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Ukrainians know that they will eventually lose the war. Ukrainian strategy revolves around delaying the invasion and bleeding the invasion force. Russia committed a huge invasion force for Ukraine. The more force you commit for the invasion the more logistics you need. Supply issues grow exponentially harder the more troop you deploy and 200k is a lot. For example, Turkiye deployed around 5k troops for Operation Olive Branch. Turkiye could have easily deployed 10 times of that. That is also why Ukraine is attacking supply trains outside of the combat zone. Supply convoys and supply trucks are always a priority for Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is a huge burden even for Russia to sustain such a huge force. Especially now considering that the Russian economy will be devastated in a few months. I wonder how much money is spent to sustain that invasion force for 24 hours. The more Ukrainians delay and bleed the more Russians will lose the will to fight and Putin will lose the control of the average Russian. Russia is a place of revolutions. If I were Putin I would watch out for that.

Anyway, Turkiye delivered a new batch of TB2 drones to Ukraine. Those are probably the 4 drones waiting for delivery.


It is said that the supply of Russian troops prepared for the siege of Kiev has been completed. Therefore, this scenario may not hold up that well.
 

chiphocks

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The US didn't take 4 years to destroy Iraq or Afghanistan. Both Saddam Hussein and the Taliban were crushed within weeks and unlike what's happening here with Russia, where their logistics are completely screwed and their soldiers don't even know what the fuck they're doing, the US took minimal casualties and did everything with a high level of efficiency.

People keep confusing America's misplaced "peace keeping" missions in Iraq and Afghanistan where the US was trying to "westernize" two nations that absolutely did not wish to be westernized with America's ability to curbstomp its enemies into dust. This is why everyone who uses the "haha, you lost in Afghanistan/Vietnam/etc" card is an idiot, because they don't know the difference between political victory and military victory. The modern US military has suffered plenty of political defeats. It has yet to suffer a military one.

I'm pretty sure I've seen a video of Ukrainians scoring a hit on a Tu (or at least it looked like it) but I haven't seen SU-57s in action yet. I'll try and find it.
owh, 4 years is from the start until US leave Iraq??
well then i guess it's a few months then (20 March 2003 - 13 December 2003) count till US kill Saddam Hussein??

you sure about it?? Tu 160?? Tu22??
if you said that those bomber already participate the war, yes, i believe it
but Tu xxx got shut down, i haven't seen it.... please share it if it does happened

I expect some low-level continued resistance in the case of a Russian-backed coup in Ukraine as well, depending on how well the West supplies them with weapons. Due to its proximity to Europe and land-connection it wouldn't be the hardest thing to pull off. The Ukrainians aren't religious fanatics like the Taliban or ISIS but some civil disobedience or sabotage could be possible, in my opinion.
Also, I am not sure whether the Su-57 even reached operational capability yet, I know only like 10 of them were ever built.
which is why i mention SU35 to, why don't they deploy it???
i'm sure they have more than 20 of it in combat ready

It is possible to reconcile these two facts.

First, the Ukrainian forces may destroy a lot of Russian assets but still not bring them to a standstill. The Russians may have more than can be overwhelmed.

Second, as attrition continues, quality soldiers will be killed off, and more and more of lower quality troops will deploy.

Thirdly, this, if it is happening, will point to continued loss of space - the Ukrainians too will be suffering attrition - by the Ukrainians, and continued loss of assets by the Russians.

Fourthly, this should theoretically continue until Russia runs out of assets and stops moving, or until Ukraine sustains so much attrition, or loses all the space they have.
run out of assets, unlikely, run out of logistics, yes, it could be
we've haven't seen them showing their full force yet
plus, considering all the asset that they have, by now they are not savage enough when they doing their action
 

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