We are probably way too optimistic over here but the truth is that apparently Russia is still advancing very strongly in the Southern Direction towards Kriviy Rih and Mikolayiv while the siege on Mariupol is getting worse and worse for Ukrainian forces there. This is where some of best trained Ukrainian forces are situated and now they are surrounded and under 24/7 attacks from all sides without any way to supply and support them. When Mariupol falls the Azov Sea will be a completely Russian lake and Crimea will be connected by land to Russia officially too. Next target will then probably be Odesa and Moldova from where Ukraine will completely lose their sea access. The steppe terrain there isn't favoring Ukrainians at all.
That is also what I'm thinking, I believe that the uncoordinated attack on Kyiev and such is done by conscripts to keep the UA busy while the soldiers with real training or to a certain degree is focused on the area around Mariupol. Russia needs to connect the invaded area with Crim to Donbas so Mariupol must fall.
If that happens I imagine Russia will talk ceasefire under more favorable terms for themselves. They'll also have secured Crim with water and all that.
I feel that Ukraine need to rout Russia more that just winning a fight here and fight there. But to do that they'd need a lot more TB2 and a push that breaks the russian army's spirit. But they may be too thick (russians) to realize or understand that as well. Either way unless UA slaughters all Russian soldiers with a bullet in the skull they'll waste prescious ressources on POW.