Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319946878545428480

Azerbaycan has entered Lacin region

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319970787013558273

 

[Saithan]

Looks like Armenian forces are reinfoced enough to put counter attack, maybe its better for Azerbaijan to use its quantitative advantage and open more fronts to disperse the Armenian defenses.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319944113622573058

Well if Armenian troops are now directly attacking from Armenia we’ll have leave some leeway to hit and kill them in Karabag.

 

[Hexciter]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319975273631256577

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319975273631256577

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319958749910622208

 

[Skyfall]

When did this happen tho? but seems legit..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319930095155412994

I think that this area was cleared of Armenians. Armenias must have retreated into Kapan and Goris regions (of Armenia) and then mounted an attack from there. Some sort of hit and retreat which Azeris weren't anticipating. If they left the vehicles it means that they were probably targeted by ATGMs and ordered to abandon vehicles and move to safety.

They may make films of the vehicles but any decent amount of Armenian troops or any attempt to take the vehicles will make them targets of TB2s.

Thing to note is that they don't seem to be damaged in any way, no burn marks and the guy filming seems to be very cautious. Give it a little time and you will probably see TB2 footage of some Armenian soldiers getting "neutralised" there.

All that said it is very strange, If front and back - or any for that matter -vehicles were burnt out from atgm strike and they were abandoned it wouldn't be suspicious. In all likelihood it must be some sort of trap.

 

[BordoEnes]

This is where the real fighting starts. Now that Azerbaijan has taken the southern flatlands the push towards the north will have more resistance purelly because of geography, however with air superiority all but complete it should nullify most of that advantage. Godspeed to our brothers!

 

[Gary]

When did this happen tho? but seems legit..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319930095155412994

just checked from liveumap, very recent clashes, near the Lachin corridor, which means that Lachin itself is very near.
I doubt if Azerbaijan captures Lachin , NKR troops station in Stepanakert will mount any counter offensive, they'll likely dug in for a prolonged urban warfare. while waiting for a counter attack from the west to open the roads from Lachin. consider that the troops in the Stepanakert area also have to face thrust

1. towards Xocavend and the roads leading directly towards Stepanakert.
2. toward Martakert and the roads leading to Agdam towards Stepanakert

 

[Skyfall]

I think that the most important circumstance now will be the targeting of Azeris troops in NK from Armenia (proper). What will be done? How will they retaliate without Armenia using it for evidence of attack on its sovereignty. Perhaps the fighting has to spill over into Armenia in order to prevent enemy fire. 20km or even better 30km just to be safe.

 

[Test7]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319998903937355776

 

[Skyfall]

just checked from liveumap, very recent clashes, near the Lachin corridor, which means that Lachin itself is very near.
I doubt if Azerbaijan captures Lachin , NKR troops station in Stepanakert will mount any counter offensive, they'll likely dug in for a prolonged urban warfare. while waiting for a counter attack from the west to open the roads from Lachin. consider that the troops in the Stepanakert area also have to face thrust

1. towards Xocavend and the roads leading directly towards Stepanakert.
2. toward Martakert and the roads leading to Agdam towards Stepanakert

They can dig in but for how long without resupply? And how will they do counter offensive if they don't have any air support, if anything they are pinned in from the air. The only thing that they can do is retreat imo, and in civilian clothes with no weapons would be best. If they dressed up as women, they would have better survival rate.
And we have seen from previous conflicts that Turkish backed forces are very effective at clearing urban areas. The images of Tripoli, Northern Syria speak for themselves, as compared with US and Russian urban warfare which involves turning the town or city back to the stone age. We'll call it Hirosimarising.

 

[Gary]

They can dig in but for how long without resupply? And how will they do counter offensive if they don't have any air support, if anything they are pinned in from the air. The only thing that they can do is retreat imo, and in civilian clothes with no weapons would be best. If they dressed up as women, they would have better survival rate.
And we have seen from previous conflicts that Turkish backed forces are very effective at clearing urban areas. The images of Tripoli, Northern Syria speak for themselves, as compared with US and Russian urban warfare which involves turning the town or city back to the stone age. We'll call it Hirosimarising.

I think they have another 3 days max to retreat , they know it well and if they don't, well that means that they're preparing for some prolonged urban warfare. I myself think they'll choose the later, considering the symbolical and propaganda value of Shusha and Stepanakert. just my guess tho.

 

[Vergennes]

Indeed,it will be much difficult to oust the Armenians from north given the geography of the terrain,mountainous and covered with forests.

The Armenian and the so called Artsakh armies are well entrenched. Porgress will most likely be slow and costly in terms of human lives despite Azeri air superiority. Well,the Azeris are still far from liberating all those territories and taking Stepanakert/Xanqandi.

 

[Skyfall]

Armenians s will kill every last soldier to keep up appearances, but even Sadam started burying his fighter jets at one point to save them from being blown up in their hangars. I suppose we can't expect anything rational from these idiots.

 

[Vergennes]

And we have seen from previous conflicts that Turkish backed forces are very effective at clearing urban areas. The images of Tripoli, Northern Syria speak for themselves, as compared with US and Russian urban warfare which involves turning the town or city back to the stone age. We'll call it Hirosimarising.

Compare Al Bab and cities in eastern Turkey after the Turkish army was involved in heavy urban warfare there. This isn't a matter of "the Turks vs the others",but a matter of how much resistance the enemy is willing to give. It's easy to capture a city intact when your adversary barely puts a fight. The contrary is another story though.

 

[Gary]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1320002097966944258

 

[BordoEnes]

Iran keeps carrying tanks and other heavy equipment up north near the Azerbaijan-Armenia-Iran border point.

Reports indicate 19 tanks in a single convoy. This is way more than just for patrol purposes.

Very disturbing.

This is pretty normal tbh. If there was a full fledged war going on right at your border then you also take precaution. Its both for political posturing but also for purelly defensive reasons.

 

[Gary]

Agree, Iran doesn't have the stomach for another (high tech) war while having to support their proxies in Yemen,Syria,Iraq, and Lebanon. Not with the current economic hardships

 

[500]

Little analysis. We had two stages of war so far:

1) Heavy Talish/Magadish and Hadrut battles.
2) Fast march along Iranian border with one failed Armenian counter attack.

Now we entered a third stage. I guess main objectives are Lachin and Qirmi Bazar (opens road to Shushi and flanks heavy defence lines around Khojavend) . Contrary to Hadrut and Talish battles now Azeri side is much more cautious. SF are searching for weak points in Armenian defence and then defence positions are softened through air and artillery.

Both are extremely heavy mountain areas. The problem with Lachin front is that Armenians can use artillery and air defence from Armenia itself.

Also contrary to popular belief Lachin is not the only road to Karabakh. There is also another one through Vardenis.

 

[Skyfall]

Indeed,it will be much difficult to oust the Armenians from north given the geography of the terrain,mountainous and covered with forests.

The Armenian and the so called Artsakh armies are well entrenched. Porgress will most likely be slow and costly in terms of human lives despite Azeri air superiority. Well,the Azeris are still far from liberating all those territories and taking Stepanakert/Xanqandi.

The problem is if you look closely, there is a whole line of mountains 3000m+. So even Napoleon would have had difficulty here . There is little point wasting effort here. The area to the east of these pictures don't have the same topography, so that area has been taken.
I don't think that there will be any action coming from the North for now in this conflict so all focus will be on the south pushing up.