TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[GoatsMilk]

The only door to the West.

Its not though and even it is say now, this status of war with Ukraine wont last forever. Likewise if it were the only door, this would force the europeans to open the other doors to remove Turkeys advantage against them.

So for Russia by using Turkey she gains leverage and options for herself and a stronger Russia is no good for Turkish regional interests.

I would even argue that by Turkey behaving like this, you reduce europes ability to shut their doors completely on russia. Because europeans will say if we are shutting our doors on Russia to harm her, but all thats happening is shes redirecting her bussiness into Turkey, then at some point they will realise its not worth keeping those doors shut.

And always keep that in mind, that Russia will not be isolated forever from europe. It will last only as long as the Ukrainian war lasts or until a settlement is reached over it. So i would say max 2 years. After 2 years business will gradually return to how it was, not quite the same but it will return. People think of their pocket first.

Honestly under erdogan all i ever see is short term thinking.

 

[TR_123456]

Its not though and even it is say now, this status of war with Ukraine wont last forever.

No it wont but who will be the mediator then?
Who can talk to both?
Which country is ''trusted'' by both?

 

[GoatsMilk]

No it wont but who will be the mediator then?
Who can talk to both?
Which country is ''trusted'' by both?

The mediator role is purely symbolic, it really means nothing.

The war will be decided by the results on the ground and i suspect when their is a final settlement america will be the main oversearer along with a representative from the EU. We will be their but in a much less significant capacity.

When the Azeri war was concluded against Armenia. Azerbaijan is our ally, Armenia is Russias ally, Turkeys ally wins the war. Who brings the settlement, Turkey is no where to be seen.

Even something as simple and obvious as that, Putin shut Turkey out.

If Turks could just remember their history, they wouldnt be making these errors.

Putin and the Russian establishment hate us Turks, never forget that.

Let me add something else, Russia is able to obtain a massive war chest because of oil and gas sales, this meant she could risk being sanctioned from the entire world for a period of a few years. Turkey on the other hand can have her economy crumbled by a few select sanctions. Keep that in mind when you think you will gain leverage against Russia because you get a few pipelines.

And i focus on Russia, not europe, because its the Russian army we may have to directly face off against. No army in europe worries me and no european army is positioned in such a hostile manner as the russian one is against us.

Also "which country is trusted by both". Tomorrow the Russians on a whim could turn us into isis supporters if its in their interests. A Russia who claimed erdogan stabbed Putin in the back and was a dishonourable traitor? Is now trusted by Russia? These are just media sloguns if i'm honest don't tangibly mean anything.

 

[Anastasius]

Can someone explain how this deal will benefit Turkiye in the future ? What kind of ‘leverage’ will Turkiye get against Russia by doing that ? Because I genuinely don't get it.

There is no leverage. The best that people have come up with is that Turkey will control the flow of gas into Europe (and Russia will control Turkey) but it won't because Europe has already began the long road of moving away from Russian resources. Turkey will be left with nothing except yet another leash that Russia can use to control it.

Russia is the world's clown and yet Turkey allows itself to be humiliated by it. It's baffling.

Who do you think will be on the line next if russia is knocked out completely ?
I don't think complete crush is a very good idea. As long is your adversaries at each other's throats good for you! Don't take side too strongly that you have to bleed alongside them.
It is not playing both side, it is only playing your side.

But most importantly, I don't see how it is practically possible to dismember russia physically or grab their resources even when they are vulnerable, like right now.

China. China is the US's primary rival, Russia isn't in the calculation.

 

[I_Love_F16]

There is no leverage. The best that people have come up with is that Turkey will control the flow of gas into Europe (and Russia will control Turkey) but it won't because Europe has already began the long road of moving away from Russian resources.

That’s exactly what I thought, that’s why it doesn’t make sense to me. + the US will do everything to stop the Russian gas flow into Europe, this way they will weaken the only source of income that Russia had, and why not replacing Russia by selling their own gas to Europe.

 

[Afif]

There is no leverage. The best that people have come up with is that Turkey will control the flow of gas into Europe (and Russia will control Turkey) but it won't because Europe has already began the long road of moving away from Russian resources. Turkey will be left with nothing except yet another leash that Russia can use to control it.

Russia is the world's clown and yet Turkey allows itself to be humiliated by it. It's baffling.

China. China is the US's primary rival, Russia isn't in the calculation.

I don't see russia as us's true rival anyway. I was talking about europe, russia and turkey equation.

 

[Huelague]

German police raid PKK terrorist cells in southwest

Police in Germany's southwest conducted raids on PKK terrorist cells, authorities said Tuesday. During searches at the houses of four suspects and a...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[dBSPL]

Israel Defense Minister Benny Gantz will visit Turkiye's capital Ankara next week, Defense Ministry announced on Thursday.

The Defense Ministry said that the visit is part of the renewal of the security cooperation between Israel and TR

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-720144

Is it starting a nightmare for someone?

 

[Afif]

last time israel and turkey had these 'military cooperation' they sold bunch of defected drones intentionally!

Turkey accuses Israel of selling them defective drones

Turkish Defence Minister Nurettin Canikli has accused Israel of selling Ankara defective drones in a 2005 deal which affecting the country’s campaign against Kurdish militias in Iraq. Canikli made the...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

but i guess, turkey will be little more careful this time.

 

[Manomed]

last time israel and turkey had these 'military cooperations' they sold bunch of defected drones intentionally!

i guess, turkey will be little bit more careful this time.

Not really Israeli drones are still in service with the TurAF.

 

[dBSPL]

last time israel and turkey had these 'military cooperations' they sold bunch of defected drones intentionally!

i guess, turkey will be little bit more careful this time.

I didn't mean defense industry cooperation, but there have been many important contributions in the 2000s. The modernization and upgrading of the F-4s, the integration of Popeye missiles, the M60T tank modernization program and yes, also the Heron systems were all collaborations that significantly increased the capabilities of the Turkish Armed Forces and improved the capabilities of the domestic industry. You keep writing with clichés.

 

[Afif]

I didn't mean defense industry cooperation, but there have been many important contributions in the 2000s. The modernization and upgrading of the F-4s, the integration of Popeye missiles, the M60T tank modernization program and yes, also the Heron systems were all collaborations that significantly increased the capabilities of the Turkish Armed Forces and improved the capabilities of the domestic industry. You keep writing with clichés.

It was a joke! Not clichés.

I know about the cooperation on both f4 and Patton modernization.

And I was reffering that, where turkish defense minister claimed israel intentionally sold defected herons to turkey.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...kQFnoECAoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0kj1A8VZuP9PKbirclNqvn
@Manomed

 

[dBSPL]

Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu:

"(On the US reaction to the OPEC+ group decisions) We see USA threatening Saudi Arabia. This bullying is not right.
(...)
"Likewise, we do not accept the pressure on Venezuela. You cannot solve problems by threatening countries."

*

'Kardeşim MBS' loading.

 

[Manomed]

Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu:

"(On the US reaction to the OPEC+ group decisions) We see USA threatening Saudi Arabia. This bullying is not right.
(...)
"Likewise, we do not accept the pressure on Venezuela. You cannot solve problems by threatening countries."

*

'Kardeşim MBS' loading.

Bruh how can they fuck us up even more???? They will start supporting Iran soon too I guess I've never seen a foreign policy that is more fucked up like this????

 

[dBSPL]

Bruh how can they fuck us up even more???? They will start supporting Iran soon too I guess I've never seen a foreign policy that is more fucked up like this????

There is a part of the speech that I am embarrassed to translate, where he complains that our companies cannot invest in Iran on oil products. So basically he mentions Iran, KSA and Venezuela by name. But what I understand from the general logic of the speech is that the green light is being given to KSA. There is a comprehensive arms embargo against KSA in the US right now, and some cases are coming up again. Turkiye is sending the message that "brother, I'm here" for the crisis that may arise in KSA's security concerns.

 

[Manomed]

There is a part of the speech that I am embarrassed to translate, where he complains that our companies cannot invest in Iran on oil products. So basically he mentions Iran, KSA and Venezuela by name. But what I understand from the general logic of the speech is that the green light is being given to KSA. There is a comprehensive arms embargo against KSA in the US right now, and some cases are coming up again. Turkiye is sending the message that 'brother, I'm here' for the crisis that may arise in KSA's security concerns.

This is what happens when "liyakatsiz" people run the country

 

[Lool]

Wtf

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583422187309973504

 

[Ryder]

Wtf

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583422187309973504

Geopolitics 101

People will be at each others throats and the next day they are the best of buddies until they do it again.

 

[dBSPL]

Wtf

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583422187309973504

Welcome to the ME politics

 

[Lool]

By referring to "actors" he probably mean more than one state; probably Greece, France, and Egypt

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583425928520429569