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Nilgiri

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It has been put into effect @Joe Shearer


1st vessel to arrive in Tripura from Bangladesh via Indo-Bangla waterways route

The Sonamura (Tripura)-Daudkandi (Bangladesh) route was included in the Indo-Bangladesh Protocol (IBP) routes signed between the two countries.


After a long wait, Tripura is going to witness the arrival of the first vessel from neighbouring Bangladesh on Saturday, connecting the state’s Gomati river with India’s national waterways through Bangladesh’s Meghna river.

The trial run of the inland waterways protocol route between India and Bangladesh started on Thursday with a boat carrying 50 metric tonne of cement from Bangladesh, set to arrive later today at Sonamura in Sepahijala district, 60 kilometres from Agartala.

The Sonamura (Tripura)-Daudkandi (Bangladesh) route was included in the Indo-Bangladesh Protocol (IBP) routes signed by Indian high commissioner in Bangladesh, Riva Ganguly Das, and Bangladesh shipping secretary, Mohammad Mezbah Uddin Chowdhury, at Dhaka this May.

According to a survey conducted by the Bangladesh authorities, 89.5 kilometres out of the 90 kms of the Sonamura-Daudkandi protocol route falls in Bangladesh and the remaining 500 metres falls in India.

Earlier in July, a floating jetty on Gomati river was launched as part of the Indo-Bangla international inland waterways project.

Also Read: India-Bangladesh inland waterway route to be operational from today: All you need to know

Since 2018, a series of expert visits from the inland waterways authority of India and the land port authority of India were carried out to check the feasibility of using river Gomati, the longest river of the state, for the waterways connectivity route.

According to the plan, dredging of the Gomati riverbed would be done enabling small boats and ships’ movement from Sonamura to Bangladesh’s Ashuganj port. Construction of a terminal building was also part of the plan to check the imported goods.

Earlier in July, chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb said the project would boost Indo-Bangla bilateral trade making Tripura a key trade hub in the northeast region. He predicted that the export volume would increase from Rs 30 crores to Rs 400 crores and the state would import goods worth of Rs 2,000 crores in one year.

Also Read: India, Bangladesh to create new mechanism to monitor bilateral projects

Currently, goods worth Rs 645 crores are imported.

Welcoming the new project, president of the Tripura chamber of commerce and industries ML Debnath said, “Unidirectional rivers like Gomati river are without tidal waves and don’t have large volume of water across the year. Except the monsoons, proper dredging may keep the route in operation for at least six months a year. As it is first of its kind, we welcome the move.”

According to an economic expert, 150 times higher volume of goods are imported through roadways via Akhaura Integrated Check Post (ICP) compared to the 50 metric tonnes of goods that could come through the project jetty. The expert also said that the potential of the project for local employment generation might not be so high.

All Tripura merchant association sees hope in the waterways project saying that imported goods from Bangladesh would be available at affordable rates.

An Agartala-based export-import trader said that Tripura would benefit from the transit charges of goods transported through Bangladesh.
 

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The barbed wire fences separating the two countries were cut by Indian Railways with BSF and BGB present

The Indian Railways has begun to install rail lines at No Man’s Land between Nilphamari’s Chilahati and Jalpaiguri’s Haldibari, promoting connectivity between Bangladesh and India with these two passenger train routes.

On a field visit on Monday morning, the barbed wire fences separating the two countries were seen cut by Indian Railways’ officials with Border Security Force of India (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) present.

(more at link)
 

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(Mods please moderate or edit this post if necessary - this was recently published in one of the OpED sections in a major newspaper in Bangladesh by a well-known intellectual in India). No slight is intended toward any particular country or group).

Vivek Menezes

Published at 12:06 am October 23rd, 2020
gdp

Is India’s slowdown the result of governmental mismanagement? REUTERS

India isn’t too happy about being surpassed by Bangladesh in GDP per capita numbers.

The full extent of India’s notably prickly paternalism towards Bangladesh erupted after the International Monetary Fund published its biannual World Economic Output report last week.

The IMF projected that India’s economy would contract by at least 10% this year, which is the most entrenched trough of any emerging country. At the same time, Bangladesh’s economy will grow by 4% and, for the first time, its real capita GDP will surpass that of its giant neighbour. This means that, in just under five decades, Bangladesh has leapfrogged from poorest country in the world right ahead to the South Asian standings.

India’s immediate response to this news has been an emotional outburst of handwringing and ostentatious shamefacedness. From Kolkata, the Trinamool Congress leader Abhishek Banerjee (he is the nephew of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee) tweeted: “It’s not their resurgence, but our colossal downfall, in pursuit of @narendramodi Ji’s $5 trillion dream!”

The Congress Party’s national spokesperson, Dr Shama Mohamed was equally doleful in her reaction: “India has always been the undisputed economic leader of the sub-continent. Now for the first time, Bangladesh’s economy is set to overtake ours. PM Modi’s actions have brought about the biggest economic humiliation in India’s history!”
Meanwhile, the Cornell University professor of economics and former Chief Economist of the World Bank, Kaushik Basu, shared this assessment: “I’ve now checked the data. IMF’s estimate shows Bangladesh will cross India in real GDP per capita in 2021. Any emerging economy doing well is good news. But it’s shocking that India, which had a lead of 25% 5 years ago, is now trailing. This calls for bold fiscal/monetary policy.”

Following the tumult via social media from my home in Goa, I was especially struck by the comments of Kapil Komireddi (who is the author of Malevolent Republic: A Short History of the New India, and has previously written extensively about Bangladesh, and is based in Hyderabad and London).

He tweeted: “Maharashtra’s economy is larger than Bangladesh’s. Bangladesh’s population is smaller than Uttar Pradesh. These disparities partly explain the growing difference in per capita GDP on paper. But the outrage over this yet again reveals a deep flaw in Indian society. Per capita GDP is a meaningless measure because it’s premised on the illusion of equal distribution. In reality, 74% of India’s wealth is concentrated in the hands of just 10% of the population.”

Komireddi concluded: “Yet there’s no sustained outrage against this grotesque inequality, which predates Modi. India’s per capita GDP will again overtake Bangladesh’s in months. That achievement will not alter the fact that Bangladesh is and has been for some time a more equal society than India.”

These struck me as eminently reasonable points, so I emailed Komireddi and asked him to elaborate. He responded promptly: “This is one example of what Naipaul called our flaw -- the ability to look but not see. [In my tweets] I was alluding to the tendency to equate numbers with progress [just as, in] the UPA years, newspapers would publish splashes on the number of Indians in the Forbes Rich List as evidence of India’s emergence as a great power.”

He told me, that “the slowdown of India’s economy is the result of many factors -- but chiefly the mismanagement of this government.” On the other hand, however, “the achievements of Bangladesh are due almost entirely to the efforts of its government and civil society. From the inclusion of women in the workforce to the warm hospitality it gives to refugees, there’s a lot we could learn from our eastern neighbour.”

To get an additional perspective, I also emailed Mihir Sharma, the veteran journalist on economic affairs who is now Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. He wrote back to say the GDP news was actually “at least a decade or more in coming. Amartya Sen pointed out in the context of India versus Bangladesh that a solid human development foundation allows for a more productive workforce and more sustainable growth.”

Sharma explained: “The crucial difference dates to before 2014, but has been amplified since. Bangladesh has been able to successfully focus on export-oriented growth. India has often been misled by the size of its domestic market into thinking that servicing that alone will be enough for jobs and growth. The current government’s ‘aatma-nirbhar’ or inward-focused strategy is only making that worse.”

I asked Sharma how this “Asian Tiger” paradigm for Bangladesh aligns with Amit Shah’s 2019 comments about Bangladeshi “infiltrators” and “termites.” He said: “It has been long understood that migration from Bangladesh to India is not an ongoing problem and has not been for at least a decade. As one Bangladeshi official pointed out recently, why would anyone cross the border to India? They would rather try to swim to Italy!”

Vivek Menezes is a writer based in Goa, India.
 

Gary

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Impressive 👍

Bangladesh needs to diversify it's economy towards manufacturing and service.
 

Nilgiri

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Bangladesh follows a far worse set of standards for its GDP (GDDS) tabulation

....compared to countries like India and Indonesia (which use SDDS) and actual industrialising countries in Asia (that arent stuck at say 0 - 500 total cars assembled for a decade or more now).

This means a huge amount more inflation gets accounted as "real"....a persistent issue with many developing countries in GDDS.

It demonstrably shows up in things like purchasing power GDP, constant dollar GDP and actual consumption of base inputs like Energy....or the fact where BD exports and forex levels actually are relative to claimed GDP level (which relies on Taka: USD 1-1 conversion application for the inflated Taka GDP).

Really doesn't matter which journos cherry pick in any country for whatever purpose.
 

Nilgiri

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If you have actual facts to provide on the matter (given an opinion-ed article has been posted), deflecting to "take a look" response is unrequired for a post challenging it.

You earn credibility as a whole country, you don't get it handed on a platter because some politician or journalist says so (and dont want you to look at their work or basis on it). Their wild swings in the labels (as seen in article title) count little to reality.

Simply put politicians and journalists tend to represent very little worldwide as a whole in general on the larger macro-numbers (that can be vetted).

Let me show my basis on this matter (using vetted information that has little to no scope for govt shenanigans worldwide):

Energy:


page 11, per energy consumption per capita time series (latest bold number on the right is 2019):

energycons.jpg


The disparity here is quite telling....comparing to some peers and popular reference countries.

This is especially given the major underlying input of energy to every human endeavour in the economy.

This shows up when we look at constant dollar GDP (which takes into account relative inflation inside the country given USD is not used inside the country and must be exchanged to local currency past the what, why and how drivers of how that USD is accumulated):



and compare it to the current (forming the basis of such journalists cherrypicking):


You will find GDDS standard countries often have much higher disparity between the two as we see in Vietnam and Bangladesh case.

Vietnam has ratio of 2000/2700 = 75%

BD has ratio of 1200/1850 = 65%

Whereas SDDS countries like India and Indonesia have much less disparity on it (in fact Indonesia has higher constant dollar GDP per capita than current).

Though given Vietnam's energy data, forex data, market cap data, trade data etc.... it has solid underlying basis for large part of its macroeconomic performance in general.

Vietnam for example has 150 billion USD market cap...about 44% of its asserted (current nominal) GDP.

That compares pretty favourably with the ratios for countries like India, Indonesia, China (which range in 50 - 70% range of their nominal current GDP estimates).

Bangladesh on other hand has just under 50 billion market cap for asserted similar nominal GDP total to Vietnam (~ 350 billion).

That is a ratio of about 15%. So that brings into question the denominator GDP....given the market cap is actually robustly exposed to free market forces unlike govt tabulations and extrapolation of USD to the 100% local currency of it.

=============

It is another matter though about articles/journalists in general. In my opinion they must always push as much criticism on a country as possible and we must tend to worst case scenario as default as much as possible (within reason).

This is because India, Indonesia and others (many mid tier developing countries in general) don't have 0% tariff access for things like ready made garments in Europe....

.....and definitely shouldn't have govt MP's blabbing all kind of things about their largest consumer countries

We must take the higher position and absolutely take every solid criticism on our manufacturing as possible and seek to keep improving there, if it means taking whatever other country claimed numbers as a "look no further past surface" golden goose...that is fine.

We after all have to compete on a far larger spectrum rather than a narrow spectrum, and without raw "LDC" tariff advantages for that single narrow ticket:


It is better this way.... sound learning and improvement there across the board is way to do it.

@Madokafc
 
Last edited:

Madokafc

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Before covid era, Indonesia and Turkey forex is very Volatile, but most of Indonesia and Turkey economy depend on internal consumption demands and Tourism industry so both country largely being not much affected by the fluctuating of Rupiah or Lira nominal value hence much smaller Gdp growth perceived in the US dollar. It's not dwell much with country who pegged their currency against US dollar at fixed rates
 

Micheal Corleone

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If you have actual facts to provide on the matter (given an opinion-ed article has been posted), deflecting to "take a look" response is unrequired for a post challenging it.

You earn credibility as a whole country, you don't get it handed on a platter because some politician or journalist says so (and dont want you to look at their work or basis on it). Their wild swings in the labels (as seen in article title) count little to reality.

Simply put politicians and journalists tend to represent very little worldwide as a whole in general on the larger macro-numbers (that can be vetted).

Let me show my basis on this matter (using vetted information that has little to no scope for govt shenanigans worldwide):

Energy:


page 11, per energy consumption per capita time series (latest bold number on the right is 2019):

View attachment 5757

The disparity here is quite telling....comparing to some peers and popular reference countries.

This is especially given the major underlying input of energy to every human endeavour in the economy.

This shows up when we look at constant dollar GDP (which takes into account relative inflation inside the country given USD is not used inside the country and must be exchanged to local currency past the what, why and how drivers of how that USD is accumulated):



and compare it to the current (forming the basis of such journalists cherrypicking):


You will find GDDS standard countries often have much higher disparity between the two as we see in Vietnam and Bangladesh case.

Vietnam has ratio of 2000/2700 = 75%

BD has ratio of 1200/1850 = 65%

Whereas SDDS countries like India and Indonesia have much less disparity on it (in fact Indonesia has higher constant dollar GDP per capita than current).

Though given Vietnam's energy data, forex data, market cap data, trade data etc.... it has solid underlying basis for large part of its macroeconomic performance in general.

Vietnam for example has 150 billion USD market cap...about 44% of its asserted (current nominal) GDP.

That compares pretty favourably with the ratios for countries like India, Indonesia, China (which range in 50 - 70% range of their nominal current GDP estimates).

Bangladesh on other hand has just under 50 billion market cap for asserted similar nominal GDP total to Vietnam (~ 350 billion).

That is a ratio of about 15%. So that brings into question the denominator GDP....given the market cap is actually robustly exposed to free market forces unlike govt tabulations and extrapolation of USD to the 100% local currency of it.

=============

It is another matter though about articles/journalists in general. In my opinion they must always push as much criticism on a country as possible and we must tend to worst case scenario as default as much as possible (within reason).

This is because India, Indonesia and others (many mid tier developing countries in general) don't have 0% tariff access for things like ready made garments in Europe....

.....and definitely shouldn't have govt MP's blabbing all kind of things about their largest consumer countries

We must take the higher position and absolutely take every solid criticism on our manufacturing as possible and seek to keep improving there, if it means taking whatever other country claimed numbers as a "look no further past surface" golden goose...that is fine.

We after all have to compete on a far larger spectrum rather than a narrow spectrum, and without raw "LDC" tariff advantages for that single narrow ticket:


It is better this way.... sound learning and improvement there across the board is way to do it.

@Madokafc
IMF and World bank estimates and sources are independent of the BBS so if you have doubts, refer to their numbers.
Bangladesh follows a far worse set of standards for its GDP (GDDS) tabulation

....compared to countries like India and Indonesia (which use SDDS) and actual industrialising countries in Asia (that arent stuck at say 0 - 500 total cars assembled for a decade or more now).
And please refrain from posting if you can’t leave your pdf habits of subtle jabs behind. India’s industrialization is no where near to export oriented Indonesia’s and as for car manufacturing, it’s gaining pace slowly, you’ve to take in mind Bangladesh in 50 years is doing better than what india was on its 50th
 

Nilgiri

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IMF and World bank estimates and sources are independent of the BBS so if you have doubts, refer to their numbers.

They say a sudden "no + please review + show your work" to subsaharan african countries data no matter what's submitted there?

Why do you think IMF even has two major data standards in first place?

India’s industrialization is no where near to export oriented Indonesia’s

Where is India vs Indonesia coming into the picture to feel better about BD's big discrepancy and dissonance at its low base level too?

Point is India and Indonesia follow a far more credible set of standards and it shows in their respective GDP per capita figures not changing a great deal when you factor out relative inflation.

Same thing shows up in PPP.

Worse standards countries launder in inflation to borrow more.

and as for car manufacturing, it’s gaining pace slowly,

It is?

you’ve to take in mind Bangladesh in 50 years is doing better than what india was on its 50th

Ah yeah the ole 1971 reference. Nothing happened at all from Pakistan's end till then....same ole same ole.

But its ok, keep the inflation going....the credit rating (among other key indicators) and debt intake BD has and is reliant on tells its own story on it....just like all the other key base inputs past energy.
 

Micheal Corleone

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Where is India vs Indonesia coming into the picture to feel better about BD's big discrepancy and dissonance at its low base level too?

Point is India and Indonesia follow a far more credible set of standards and it shows in their respective GDP per capita figures not changing a great deal when you factor out relative inflation.

Same thing shows up in PPP.

Worse standards countries launder in inflation to borrow more.
Idk, you bought up india in the same light as Indonesia when truth is quite the contrary
yes, look up progoti in assembling proton cars of Malaysia for now, plans to set up local manufacturing. Same with jamuna group but with Mitsubishi motors
Besides cooperation from govt side with China for battery powered cars
Ah yeah the ole 1971 reference. Nothing happened at all from Pakistan's end till then....same ole same ole.

But its ok, keep the inflation going....the credit rating (among other key indicators) and debt intake BD has and is reliant on tells its own story on it....just like all the other key base inputs past energy
worry about your own country’s dormancy in the last five years under bjp, we can worry about our own. Debt to GDP is sustainable, each country faces different sets of challenges and solutions are not one size fits all. Being salty of others achievements however big or small does no one any good
 

Nilgiri

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Idk, you bought up india in the same light as Indonesia when truth is quite the contrary

For reason regarding standards. i.e Why is it only BD (using BD own figures) that takes a big hit when we bring constant vs current USD?

Indonesia 4000 stays as 4000 USD

India 2200 stays as 2200

BD 2000 drops to 1300.

Same happens for PPP, BD takes a huge decline illustrating the level of inflation compounding even in its "real" GDP.

This trend applies even more when we look at pretty much anything 3rd party vetted that is left away from BD govt statistician hands. Be it market cap, forex levels or investment compared to perceived corruption and what actually materialised in the big "trade diversification" blab.

As soon as non-govt parties are involved in large enough number (actually putting money where mouth is), the asserted oomph all fizzles away for some reason.

Same reason why India and Indonesia rank where they do in corruption compared to BD...not evenin same ballpark.

But I guess lets take the 95% seats won in election govt super credibly past all that....no matter how the real BD actually holds up past govt data support and huge media control.

India and Indonesia ever seen a result like that either? BD really pulled out all the stops when it comes to inflation.....claimed election results and BAF promise threads included.

yes, look up progoti in assembling proton cars of Malaysia for now, plans to set up local manufacturing. Same with jamuna group but with Mitsubishi motors
Besides cooperation from govt side with China for battery powered cars

Sure we been hearing all this a long long time. Lets hope it gets you to 1000/year assembly.


worry about your own country’s dormancy in the last five years under bjp, we can worry about our own. Debt to GDP is sustainable, each country faces different sets of challenges and solutions are not one size fits all. Being salty of others achievements however big or small does no one any good

Dormancy? If you say so....but then again its about as intellectually credible as 2 patents a year filed internationally for country your size. There is reason India gets in couple weeks in 2019 the total FDI BD gets in a year.

But you think thats dormancy cool....guess not every country can have an LDC inflation idling rate at all time.

After all we don't have a junk BB- credit rating model to inflate GDP denominator for more loans. Neither are we in bottom 10% percentile in world corruption constantly.

How exactly is your debt-GDP sustainable under that credit rating? Or any country? Someone just says so?

Forex levels (again something with no scope for govt funny business since it must correlate externally) would at least be increasing sustainably if so for last 5 years....instead of what happened (stagnation even with freebie 0% tariff in EU for RMG).
 

Micheal Corleone

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you say so....but then again its about as intellectually credible as 2 patents a year filed internationally for country your size.
Can you not use your arrogant undertone to belittle other countries? Indians sure do think to highly of themselves
 

Nilgiri

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Yet it’s been growing at 4.2%

I guess we dont have the 4 - 5% inflation idle rate to tack on top from feelings and loan drive needs.

Thats the inevitability of 2000-->1300 (but cherrypicking only the former)....which you still haven't explained.

Like I said, let us worry about our shortcomings. We definitely don’t need your negativity here

If its worry about our shortcomings, then why this thread started bringing India in? Selectively picking one with a title calling India neurotic?...and then saying some author is an "intellectual". It is supposed to fly without a challenge?

Can you not use your arrogant undertone to belittle other countries? Indians sure do think to highly of themselves

I'll let it go then....first "refrain from this" and now "negativity" and "belittling" and "arrogant" because your perception and feelings (and conflating BD govt with BD as whole in process). As a mod you ought to know where to bring these things up in first place (to another mod)....certainly not out here. There is lot of way more heated exchanges on this forum between Indians and Pakistanis already (incl mods)....no one is saying "it shouldn't be done". That's my last reply in this thread.
 

Micheal Corleone

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If its worry about our shortcomings, then why this thread started bringing India in? Selectively picking one with a title calling India neurotic?...and then saying some author is an "intellectual". It is supposed to fly without a challenge?
My friend, you’re better off interrogating the Indian journalist who wrote the article with with that headline. https://www.dhakatribune.com/opinio...termites-to-tiger-india-s-bangladesh-neuroses
It’s not bangladeshis calling Indians neurotic but an Indian himself.
So deal with him instead of pissing on bd at the expense of healing your bruised ego
 

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@Nilgiri,

So what are the tricks and hacks that Bangladesh has used to have higher life expectancy than India, and higher percentage of women in the workforce, lower debt to GDP, etc.?

Also, if Bangladesh is faking all of its growth then why don't other countries also fake their statistics to get a higher raking than India in IMF statistics?

Or is only Bangladesh uniquely shitty that we fake all our statistics while the rest of the 190 countries in the world are so so honest?
 

Micheal Corleone

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I'll let it go then....first "refrain from this" and now "negativity" and "belittling" and "arrogant" because your perception and feelings (and conflating BD govt with BD as whole in process). As a mod you ought to know where to bring these things up in first place (to another mod)....certainly not out here. There is lot of way more heated exchanges on this forum between Indians and Pakistanis already (incl mods)....no one is saying "it shouldn't be done". That's my last reply in this thread
Your anger was misdirected and you went about belittling another countries shortcomings, because an Indian journalist wrote on a controversial topic.
 

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Once upon a time Bangladesh used to lag behind India in both social and economic indicators. Indians used to have a lot of fun mocking us.

Then slowly Bangladesh started to overtake India on social indicators. Indians then satisfied themselves with thinking that this is due to aid, LDC status, etc. Bangladesh could never compete with it on the economy, which really matters.

Now Bangladesh has bypassed India on both social and economic indicators, now Indians are screaming about inflation rate and what not.

While the ground reality in Bangladesh remains that it is a remarkably stable country which is rapidly getting educated and connected with the world, with new roads being constructed virtually everywhere in the country, and difficult reforms being undertaken by a center-left, pro-free-market government.

India stumbled badly in both the needless "demonetization" drama and the GST implementation. Bangladesh is currently implementing VAT, without any sign of disruption at all. It will be similarly easy for Bangladesh to implement all the required reforms in the bureaucracy, tax, foreign exchange regulations required to overcome problems.

And above all, Bangladesh is a united and stable nation under a strong pro-development party, with favourable demographics and favourable macroeconomic situation. Whatever challenges we face, we are better placed than most countries in the world to solve them.
 

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