Bangladesh Opinion Let’s talk the talk: Confronting Bangladesh’s national security threats

[Afif]

Nice, all the best wishes to Bangladesh.

Thanks, best wishes to our Moroccan brothers too.

It's nice that Bangladesh has invested in some very capable radars. But the C4ISR is more of an integrated solution that connects command, communication, and intelligence between the branches of the Armed forces of Bangladesh. Let me give you a few examples of some systems that contribute to the Moroccan C4ISR structure that we have. Our M1 abrams tanks for example have the blue force tracking box that has the capability to show all the troops that the tanks are friendly tanks, and they can work together against the enemy. You have perhaps seen Russian, or Chinese tank users using flags to coordinate between them. That's why you see that Nato forces do have a network structure in place so they can fight in the safest, and most efficient way. The C4ISR network is supposed to connect every system as small as tanks, radars, fighter jets, to frigates, etc.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1231285975529279490

Indeed, i understand what are you saying. I was just pointing out only about our air forces recent additions as these radars are very easily can be integrate with each other can create a comprehensive picture of surrounding airspace.

but yes, when it comes to army and navy there is still good amount of works need to be done regarding network centric warfare capability.
for navy i am counting on the new gen frigate program which will have complete network centric capability with each other as well as ASW helicopter, drones and air forces assets.

And when it comes to army, yes it is not completely network centric yet. however, newly procured VT 5 as well as our heavily upgraded type59 Durjoy tanks are all combat data link capable integrated platforms. but not all of our mechanized infantry units has the same capability. we operate large a number of Russian BTR 80 APCs. instead upgrading them with modern electronics i believe army is planning to replace them with new generation and completely digital vehicles. ( which likely to be Turkish btw )

As well as there is a plan underway to introduce battle field Level tactical ISR UAVs to company level.

 

[Knowledgeseeker]

Thanks, best wishes to our Moroccan brothers too.

Indeed, i understand what are you saying. I was just pointing out only about our air forces recent additions as these radars are very easily can be integrate with each other can create a comprehensive picture of surrounding airspace.

but yes, when it comes to army and navy there is still good amount of works need to be done regarding network centric warfare capability.
for navy i am counting on the new gen frigate program which will have complete network centric capability with each other as well as ASW helicopter, drones and air forces assets.

And when it comes to army, yes it is not completely network centric yet. however, newly procured VT 5 as well as our heavily upgraded type59 Durjoy tanks are all combat data link capable integrated platforms. but not all of our mechanized infantry units has the same capability. we operate large a number of Russian BTR 80 APCs. instead upgrading them with modern electronics i believe army is planning to replace them with new generation and completely digital vehicles. ( which likely to be Turkish btw )

As well as there is a plan underway to introduce battle field Level tactical ISR UAVs to company level.

Thank you brother!

Any plans to double, or triple the budget? You have been mentioning a lot of different projects from Fighter jets, air defense systems, as well as frigates, and submarines. Currently, Bangladesh has a defense budget of 4.3 billion USD, and I would guess that a lot of it goes to infrastructure and salaries.

 

[Afif]

Thank you brother

You have been mentioning a lot of different projects from Fighter jets, air defense systems, as well as frigates, and submarines. Currently, Bangladesh has a defense budget of 4.3 billion USD, and I would guess that a lot of it goes to infrastructure and salaries.

Yes, you are right. procurement of fighter jets and frigate are independent of that 4.3 billion.
i am expecting this years budget to be 5 billion as our GDP is likely to reach 500 billions mark this year. We spend around 1 percent of our total GDP on defense.

Thank you brother!

Any plans to double, or triple the budget?

Oh bro! I wish we could spend 2/3 percent of our GDP on defense annually. the budget would have been 8/10 billion dollars. and i believe it could be done comfortably.
But no, as the author of the article very rightfully pointed out, our leaders and decision makers are sleepwalking toward future crisis.

But hopefully, we will wake up before anything happens to us.

 

[Knowledgeseeker]

Yes, you are right. procurement of fighter jets and frigate are independent of that 4.3 billion.
i am expecting this years budget to be 5 billion as our GDP is likely to reach 500 billions mark this year. We spend around 1 percent of our total GDP on defense.

Oh bro! I wish we could spend 2/3 percent of our GDP on defense annually. the budget would have been 8/10 billion dollars. and i believe it could be done comfortably.
But no, as the author of the article very rightfully pointed out, our leaders and decision makers are sleepwalking toward future crisis.

But hopefully, we will wake up before anything happens to us.

What do you mean by independent? Do Bangladesh have one defense budget for staff, and infrastrucure, and another one for acquisition? I guess all us who are interested in defense wish to see more, and have larger defense budgets. Morocco spend more then 1% but i will quote the words of the minister in charge of the national defense administration.

The Moroccan defence budget in 2023 is 5.2 per cent of the GDP. [It is] insufficient, especially during the security threats in the region that require constant vigilance.

I guess one solution is to start its defense industry, and thats the route Morocco is taking now. Something Bangladesh should consider to.

 

[Afif]

What do you mean by independent? Do Bangladesh have one defense budget for staff, and infrastrucure, and another one for acquisition?

Not all acquisitions but big ones like MRCA or frigate program. in these cases, specific extra funds are allocated afaik.

I guess one solution is to start its defense industry, and thats the route Morocco is taking now. Something Bangladesh should consider to.

Well, army is trying to do that, for example production of all kind of ammunition and shells as well as manufacturing ATGM and MANPAD. These are all officially declared project for now.
But we believe they are also planning to produce 122mm rocket artillery as well as 8x8 AFVs locally with TOT from friendly countries.
Apart from that we know about the drone project of BAF.

 

[Nilgiri]

What do you mean by independent? Do Bangladesh have one defense budget for staff, and infrastrucure, and another one for acquisition? I guess all us who are interested in defense wish to see more, and have larger defense budgets. Morocco spend more then 1% but i will quote the words of the minister in charge of the national defense administration.

The Moroccan defence budget in 2023 is 5.2 per cent of the GDP. [It is] insufficient, especially during the security threats in the region that require constant vigilance.

I guess one solution is to start its defense industry, and thats the route Morocco is taking now. Something Bangladesh should consider to.

Yeah well Morocco and BD both have about 30 billion USD in Forex....but Morocco population is like 4 - 5 times less.

That dictates how much fiscal room there is for import-heavy spending in the end...compared to GDP % (since GDP is estimate-sensitive in the end compared to say cold forex).

There are priorities that BD will have to manage better to improve this buffer reality first.

 

[Afif]

Yeah well Morocco and BD both have about 30 billion USD in Forex....but Morocco population is like 4 - 5 times less.

That dictates how much fiscal room there is for import-heavy spending in the end...compared to GDP % (since GDP is estimate-sensitive in the end compared to say cold forex).

There are priorities that BD will have to manage better to improve this buffer reality first.

These excuses wont work if territorial integrity of Bangladesh is threatened.

Myanmars economy is almost becoming something like North Korea nowadays, on top of that they are going through a civil war and yet they keep buying heavy armaments casually like it is every day business!

This is definitely very disturbing for us.

 

[Nilgiri]

These excuses wont work if territorial integrity of Bangladesh is threatened.

Myanmars economy is almost becoming something like North Korea nowadays, on top of that they are going through a civil war and yet they keep buying heavy armaments casually like it is every day business!

This is definitely very disturbing for us.

It is not an excuse, its a reality.

Myanmar doesn't have to work through the conventional forex system (based on human labour + productivity for most developing countries) as simply it has something like 100 - 200 times its yearly consumption (of gas) in proven gas reserves alone.

So simply it gets PRC iron clad investment there (all non USD based) on top of what is done with oil and mineral resources too.

That is the basic security-economic relationship paradigm they have with PRC, guaranteed.

That is why PRC uses its veto regarding Myanmar sanctions when they were brought to UNSC....and also why the Myanmar regime can afford the scale of military hardware from PRC compared to its USD imprint. It simply essentially can allow a 5% increase of ownership in a gas block for whatever some general has determined to buy from a norinco brochure.

Bangladesh is very different country in comparison in this dynamic of what resources and leverages it has (relative to its population size and needs) on easy offer (very limited) versus what it has to invest in the hard way to grow.

 

[Afif]

It is not an excuse, its a reality.

You dont understand, this reality is not good enough to make excuse about national security threat, specially when we have a neighbour like Myanmar.

Myanmar doesn't have to work through the conventional forex system (based on human labour + productivity for most developing countries) as simply it has something like 100 - 200 times its yearly consumption (of gas) in proven gas reserves alone.

So simply it gets PRC iron clad investment there (all non USD based) on top of what is done with oil and mineral resources too.
That is the basic security-economic relationship paradigm they have with PRC, guaranteed.

bruh, You are making it sound like they are living it much better than us because of 100x resources!

 

[Nilgiri]

You dont understand, this reality is not good enough to make excuse about national security threat, specially when we have a neighbour like Myanmar.

Reality doesn't really care about "good" or "bad enough". It just is what it is, and you either understand and work to address it better...or you wish it away and suffer later.

Now if BD as a whole seeks to respond to that more effectively, it will have to gauge the moving pieces regarding this better and work through that, the own system it has established for it.... to get society consensus on what security spending should increase to and the costs of doing that on other programs that seek to address society problems broadly.

It is not some simple quick thing to do when you do not have totalitarianism.

30 billion USD forex and very low natural resource per capita for country of BD development stage and population size and govt system is a big challenge to get to shift to whichever higher defence spending level.

bruh, You are making it sound like they are living it much better than us because of 100x resources!

Where did I do that? I am specifically talking about the regime and what it has at its disposal regarding its affairs and objectives (and those that intersect with it the most outside sustenance and dedicated commitment and guarantee wise)....relative to the govt and system Bangladesh has.

Does North Korean regime dynamics correlate to their people living standards? No. In fact they have high degree of inverse relationship. Same thing going on in Myanmar. No surprise both have the same main external benefactor either.

Bangladeshis in some sort of privileged situation compared to the average maybe ought to spend their time and focus discussing these things consistently as to where Burmese materialised power stems from and is protected in the geopolitical benefactor sense...and then rationally discuss the options on how to shift spending in convincing the larger populations involved (that have to bear the bill long term).

But most of them (of online defence and political interest) I have seen prefer to persistently waste their time in clownfora over whichever delusion bicker and squabble best addresses their inner irrational complexes and emotional voids.

If they cannot be consistent, they cannot be rational...and the matters of actual application (that say you desire) suffer by insufficient focus.

Maybe it is different in other parts of BD upper echelons as they exist outside the online world... I guess let us see as time will tell.

 

[rai456]

The Bangladesh Myanmar border is not that long and seems like difficult terrain. Not very condusive to large scale conventional military invasions. Also Myanmar is an isolated and poor state that has been in civil war since gaining independence. Bangladesh should not have to worry about Myanmar. Myanmar has a large army but it is more geared to fighting ethinic militias.

For the Rohingya problem why can't Bangladesh create a Rohingya version of the Mukti Bahini? You can increase border security to keep more refugees out while providing weapons and training to Rohingya militias to fight back against the Myanmar army. Myanmar doesn't have much advanced equipment so you shouldn't need all that expensive western equipment to fight them. Just set up some training camps near the border and arm and train some of the refugees.

The Rohingya refugee crisis is a tragedy but it is not something that other countries have not dealt with before.
Pakistan took in millions of Afghan refugees and Turkey has taken in million of Syrian refugees.

 

[Isa Khan]

For the Rohingya problem why can't Bangladesh create a Rohingya version of the Mukti Bahini? You can increase border security to keep more refugees out while providing weapons and training to Rohingya militias to fight back against the Myanmar army. Myanmar doesn't have much advanced equipment so you shouldn't need all that expensive western equipment to fight them. Just set up some training camps near the border and arm and train some of the refugees.

Thought about that in 2017 but judging by their current behaviors and recent reports that's a terrible idea, it would be a second suicide if we give them weapons when there are multiple terrorist, armed, criminal gangs including drug dealers already exist. Several time they attacked BGB, police and even attacked ansar camp to loot weapon.

They are threats for internal security. And they are certainly not like Bangladeshis in 1971. They don't want to fight for their rights like we did. They want the world hand it over to them and spoon-feed them. If they really wanted to fight they would've done it already by now after NUG's offer to join the PDF for citizenship.

 

[Afif]

Reality doesn't really care about "good" or "bad enough". It just is what it is, and you either understand and work to address it better...or you wish it away and suffer later.

Now if BD as a whole seeks to respond to that more effectively, it will have to gauge the moving pieces regarding this better and work through that, the own system it has established for it.... to get society consensus on what security spending should increase to and the costs of doing that on other programs that seek to address society problems broadly.

It is not some simple quick thing to do when you do not have totalitarianism.

30 billion USD forex and very low natural resource per capita for country of BD development stage and population size and govt system is a big challenge to get to shift to whichever higher defence spending level.

Look. i am not suggesting to throw away everything tomorrow and just unconditionally prioritize the defense budget. indeed BD need to address that issue efficiently as a part of broader systematic management, as well as careful distribution of the resource is crucial under the current circumstances after thoroughly examining the opportunity cost.

However, i still believe we can do better even with the contemporary limitations.

One obvious example of that is INDIA itself. Afaik, the things you said about low natural resource per capita, development stage and population size, it can be applied to India too, specially when comparing with BD. And yet India can spend over 2 percent of its GDP on defense.

But most of them (of online defence and political interest) I have seen prefer to persistently waste their time in clownfora over whichever delusion bicker and squabble best addresses their inner irrational complexes and emotional voids.

Okay, i am little bit confused now, but i am guessing you are talking about us?
No offense, but i think lot of folks in Indian and Pakistani defense forums could fit that description too.

 

[Gary]

The author states

''To be clear, there never had been, and never will be, a diplomatic solution to this problem -- unless Bangladesh can create sustained leverage over Myanmar''

We must solve this problem by military means. What Azerbaijan has done.

This will put Bangladesh into an economic regress. Azerbaijan has oil money and some important friends to be able to launch their military campaign, Bangladesh not so much.

War means a return to war economy, you know who else has a war economy ? Pakistan and NorKo. Unless you're planning to walk that path, better follow the path that is more suiting to Bangladesh economic aim. That is to reduce poverty, increase in industrialization etc. Think how East and Southeast Asian countries solve their problem.

 

[Knowledgeseeker]

@Afif

Brother @Nilgiri just mentioned the economic part when it comes to the budget. Unfortunately, restrictions on the defense budget take place a lot based on economic challenges in different countries. It's good to hear that Bangladesh is launching its own defense industry by manufacturing different types of ammunition, and drones. This is the easiest way for cost-effective and will be beneficial for the economy as well. Morocco is going the same route by producing different types of ammunition, and drones.

 

[Nilgiri]

Look. i am not suggesting to throw away everything tomorrow and just unconditionally prioritize the defense budget. indeed BD need to address that issue efficiently as a part of broader systematic management, as well as careful distribution of the resource is crucial under the current circumstances after thoroughly examining the opportunity cost.

However, i still believe we can do better even with the contemporary limitations.

One obvious example of that is INDIA itself. Afaik, the things you said about low natural resource per capita, development stage and population size, it can be applied to India too, specially when comparing with BD. And yet India can spend over 2 percent of its GDP on defense.

Okay, i am little bit confused now, but i am guessing you are talking about us?
No offense, but i think lot of folks in Indian and Pakistani defense forums could fit that description too.

Agree with all of this broadly.

Last part very true....it is common psyche to South Asia in general.

Frank Zappa said (about US)...the govt is the entertainment division of the military industrial complex....heh.

In our part of world (and maybe developing world more broadly) I feel we have a psychological-void complex that acts the same way for govt + politics (and thus this continues to defence security realm too).

All said and done, on this particular issue I feel pessimistic w.r.t BD getting proper resolution on rohingya situation. It is caught between rock and hard place and seem to be resigned to it in many ways. This will be quite some obstacle in end to what you and others want in more security focus/attention spending wise for this decade.

I mean what is your opinion for example on all that has transpired with Myanmar, yet they were invited and participated in the fleet review Bangladesh did recently....like it is normal kind of neighbour and situation? There is mixed messages being sent out by top echelon of BD somewhat contrary to what would be needed to get security consensus effort to ramp up spending for preparedness/objectives that many of you feel is warranted.

 

[F-6 enthusiast]

This will put Bangladesh into an economic regress. Azerbaijan has oil money and some important friends to be able to launch their military campaign, Bangladesh not so much.

Initiating a full scale conventional conflict should be the last option.
On the other hand, possessing the capability to conduct modern war is a necessity. A bigger (and more potent) stick often does the trick.
Getting into a security arrangement with the US ( participating in excercises , maneuvers , hardware acquisition etc) will no doubt accelerate the pace with which our armed forces are being modernised. This will draw ire from many , we will do what we must.

The junta does not care about diplomacy as showcased by the recent airspace violations in Thailand , Bangladesh and India. In the recent past , they even bombed a Chinese Village. No point in negotiating with these thugs.

 

[Afif]

Agree with all of this broadly.

Last part very true....it is common psyche to South Asia in general.

Frank Zappa said (about US)...the govt is the entertainment division of the military industrial complex....heh.

In our part of world (and maybe developing world more broadly) I feel we have a psychological-void complex that acts the same way for govt + politics (and thus this continues to defence security realm too).

All said and done, on this particular issue I feel pessimistic w.r.t BD getting proper resolution on rohingya situation. It is caught between rock and hard place and seem to be resigned to it in many ways. This will be quite some obstacle in end to what you and others want in more security focus/attention spending wise for this decade.

I mean what is your opinion for example on all that has transpired with Myanmar, yet they were invited and participated in the fleet review Bangladesh did recently....like it is normal kind of neighbour and situation? There is mixed messages being sent out by top echelon of BD somewhat contrary to what would be needed to get security consensus effort to ramp up spending for preparedness/objectives that many of you feel is warranted.

This is a very good question, the reason why we ended up with this kind of messy foreign policy regarding Rohinga refugee crisis, can summarized broadly in two different points.

First of all, it is about our own inconsistency, incompetence and the lack of proper man power in the field of diplomacy. Otherwise, i think, even with the pure diplomatic options we could have done it better.

And most importantly, as the author of the article very rightfully pointed out, we dont have a credible and sound NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY yet.
And it is not just him, lot of respective analyst and academics wrote about this before. i am sure you can look it up for yourself.

In a nutshell, Our policy makers doesn't have or don't want to have any idea or thought of 'combined arms' diplomacy. ( you know what I mean )

The soon we can take that crucial step and develop a clear and sound NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, the better it is.