Breaking News China-US War?

[contricusc]

@contricusc

In 1999, Australia and Indonesia came close to war due to East Timor

East Timor has and oil and gas whats so ironic that Australia supported Indonesia when took back East Timor but once oil and gas got discovered the tune changed.

Why am I not surprised? Everything changes when oil and gas is found.

Indonesia and Australia pretty big trade partners but also distrust each other.

Ok, got it.

 

[Gary]

But the second scenario which is a hot war is totally different. If China and the US end up in a full fledged war with destroyed warships and many casualties, than trading with China will simply not be allowed. The US strategy to win the war would be to cut off China entirely from the global economy, and except for some land routes with Russia and neighboring Asian countries, China will be totally isolated. Which country do you think will have the courage to accept Chinese ships in its docks if the US threatens war?

Nothing is law until it is enforced. we allow Chinese ships in such scenario then what ? Get bombed ? Depending on countries size and power they either obey or ignore. Indonesia is big enough to simply ignore, because while we can't stand toe to toe. If we're to be harmed physically we could just adjust our policy by allowing Chinese planes to fly from here or allowed their military installations.

Also intentional blocking of trade will hurt mostly U.S allies which depended their livelihood on trade and exports like Singapore, Japan and South Korea.

Not to mention the US does not have enough hulls to police the entire global shipping while at the same time having to face China. USN planners will have to divide its warships ships for:

1. Homeland ballistic missile defense
2. Policing waters not just Indo-Pac but the the drug trade like in the Carribean as well
3. Escorting U.S carriers
4. Escorting US supplies coming from CONUS towards FOB in Asia
5. War patrol
6. Defending forward island like Guam

China otoh while (at the moment) is smaller, does not have so many tasks divided in a such a broad category of missions. The USN is still king, but its overworked and overstretched and they themselves admit this.

The Chinese army, navy and air force are not battle tested. They have zero war experience. The Ukrainian war has shown the difference between military exercises and real war. China is an autocracy like Russia, and such countries usually excel at parades and fail at the real thing.

Really ? the German army of WW2 are an army of parades too, yet the took France in a Month, devastate most of Europe and 1/4th of Russia. you're oversimplifying things based on popular assumption.

The Imperial Japanese too shows extraordinarily professional conduct of war despite being non democratic and fascist.

Remember how Saddam’s army was one of the strongest in the world? Until it faced the US and its allies. Remember how Russia was the second most powerful army in the world before the Ukraine invasion? Now it is the second most powerful army in Ukraine.

The Chinese would be wise to remain the second most powerful military in the world, but they need to stay at peace in order to keep their status.

I see u like to use examples that suits your intent. Iraq and Russian failure in Desert Storm and Ukraine are a result of very different failure and most are not applicable to the naval environment of Indo-Pac.

The closest analogy to the Chinese now is Japan in early 20th century in its war against Russia, and especially the case study of the nascent Imperial Japanese Navy (Kaigun) and the established Imperial Russia Navy.

Japan defeated the much larger Russian navy because it prepared itself for the final climax between the two. After the Japanese were forced to relinquish their claims on China in the triple intervention, the Imperial Japan Navy has geared all its effort to fight a Western Navy (the likes of Russia's) for an upcoming war. They studied and tests numerous new technology including heavy battleships, fast torpedo boats, radio comms, new techniques of fighting including for night fighting, blockade using blockships whatsoever. Hence by the time war broke out with Russia. The Japanese navy manages to block the Pacific fleet in Port Arthur and annihillate the incoming Baltic fleet in Tsushima.

Now China is like Japan of the 1900s, after the shocking defeat of Iraqi military in desert storm, the Chinese embarked on modernization efforts, not just in technology but techniques of waging war. They ditched their outdated total people's defence concept and adopt modern informationalized warfare. Their army is getting slim while their air force and navy are getting more sophisticated and large. They tests new technology to defeat US navy most notably with their ASBM venture. Comms and C4ISR are greatly enhanced the same way the Japanese invest their money on wireless comms, coastal early warning and superior optics in the 1900s.

The PLAN and PLAAF is designed ground up to counter the likes of which the USN and USAF operates in the Pacific and they got help from Western aviators and experts working for them.

Iraqi army of 1991 perceived that the war with the US will be the same war the way they do war with Iran, slow protracted war of anihillation, what they met instead is a fast moving high tech army that out maneuver their defensive positions. So there's a clear difference why the Iraqi experience is just not applicable in Indopac.

The Chinese military might not be as refined as the overall US military but its quite close it doesn't matter. And they could actually afford losses, the same way the U.S could afford losses in WW2 and Japan can't. Because their industrial output is just bigger.

So it will not be 100% China will win, and neither its going to be easy for the US as well.

China has a huge population to feed. While it may not literally starve, they will go back to the times of Mao when they barely had anything to eat.

I'm pretty sure I've answered this and why you can't rely on assumptions that China will starve. But you choose to ignore and stay ignorant instead.

 

[contricusc]

Nothing is law until it is enforced. we allow Chinese ships in such scenario then what ? Get bombed ? Depending on countries size and power they either obey or ignore. Indonesia is big enough to simply ignore, because while we can't stand toe to toe. If we're to be harmed physically we could just adjust our policy by allowing Chinese planes to fly from here or allowed their military installations.

It is sufficient for the US to convince the Philippines and Malaysia to be on their side and allow US aircraft to use their airfields, and together with Japan, China is basically sealed.

I really don’t see how China could win such a war, because they have no real friends in Asia, and nobody wants to see them becoming too powerful.

Also intentional blocking of trade will hurt mostly U.S allies which depended their livelihood on trade and exports like Singapore, Japan and South Korea.

If it comes to a hot war between US and China, the mentioned countries would be happy to see China defeated and economic pain would be less important.

Not to mention the US does not have enough hulls to police the entire global shipping while at the same time having to face China. USN planners will have to divide its warships ships for:

1. Homeland ballistic missile defense
2. Policing waters not just Indo-Pac but the the drug trade like in the Carribean as well
3. Escorting U.S carriers
4. Escorting US supplies coming from CONUS towards FOB in Asia
5. War patrol
6. Defending forward island like Guam

China otoh while (at the moment) is smaller, does not have so many tasks divided in a such a broad category of missions. The USN is still king, but its overworked and overstretched and they themselves admit this.

While you have valid points here, keep in mind that it is sufficient for the US to block a few chocking points like the Panama channel, the Suez, the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of Malacca to exert a lot of control over long distance trade. For proximity to China, it needs the assistance of Malaysia, Philippines and Japan, and the seas around China are basically closed.

Also, the US can get additional huls from its allies, like Japan, South Korea, Australia, UK or France.

Really ? the German army of WW2 are an army of parades too, yet the took France in a Month, devastate most of Europe and 1/4th of Russia. you're oversimplifying things based on popular assumption.

Europeans were hopping from one war to another during that time, so basically nobody lacked military experience. WW2 started only 21 years after the end of WW1, and there were plenty of other conflicts in between, like the Spanish civil war or Italy’s wars in Africa.

The Imperial Japanese too shows extraordinarily professional conduct of war despite being non democratic and fascist.

History shows that fascist (right wing authoritarian) and democratic countries tend to outperform communist (left wing authoritarian) countries when it comes to war. The ratio of kills in every recent war has the socialist/communist side losing a lot more people than their democratic or fascist counterparty. This is because communism favors corruption, bureocracy and doesn’t reward merit.

I see u like to use examples that suits your intent. Iraq and Russian failure in Desert Storm and Ukraine are a result of very different failure and most are not applicable to the naval environment of Indo-Pac.

The closest analogy to the Chinese now is Japan in early 20th century in its war against Russia, and especially the case study of the nascent Imperial Japanese Navy (Kaigun) and the established Imperial Russia Navy.

Russia has a long history of failing to defend its power status whenever confronted with a strong opponent.

But remember that:
1) Japan couldn’t win the naval war against the US
2) Japan is now on US side

The PLAN and PLAAF is designed ground up to counter the likes of which the USN and USAF operates in the Pacific and they got help from Western aviators and experts working for them.

And the Moskva cruiser was nicknamed the “carrier killer” by the Russians, because it was designed to counter US aircraft carriers. However, it ended up on the bottom of the Black Sea because of some coastal missiles from Ukraine.

While China may be preparing on how to sink US warships and how to counter US aircraft, the reality of war may prove very differnt from their planning. Like a famous guy once said, “everyone has a plan until it is punched in the face”.

The Chinese military might not be as refined as the overall US military but its quite close it doesn't matter. And they could actually afford losses, the same way the U.S could afford losses in WW2 and Japan can't. Because their industrial output is just bigger.

We are only assuming it is quite close. So far, there is no recent conflict where we can see how the Chinese military operates.

As for the industrial output, that’s another problem for China, because China could be easily hit by missiles and its industrial base degraded in such a war because of its proximity to the conflict, while the US industrial base will sit safely far behind the battle lines.

So it will not be 100% China will win, and neither its going to be easy for the US as well.

It would not be easy for sure, but there are only two possible outcomes to such a war: US victory in a conventional war or nuclear war where everybody loses.

I'm pretty sure I've answered this and why you can't rely on assumptions that China will starve. But you choose to ignore and stay ignorant instead.

While they may not starve in case of a war, their food security will surely be affected. Here’s an interesting article that explains how China is becoming more dependent on food imports:

China Increasingly Relies on Imported Food. That’s a Problem.

China has so far been able to feed its 1.4 billion people, but climate change and a dependence on imports could pose challenges.

www.cfr.org

 

[Afif]

As for the industrial output, that’s another problem for China, because China could be easily hit by missiles and its industrial base degraded in such a war because of its proximity to the conflict, while the US industrial base will sit safely far behind the battle lines.

Just with few air defence system Ukraine significantly curbed out the Russian presicion strike capability. ( specially cruise missiles )

I think China wouldn't do bad with its huge air defence network.

But more importantly even US military planners usually design their war games in a way that avoid hiting Chinese mainland for a possible Taiwan scenario.

 

[contricusc]

But more importantly even US military planners usually design their war games in a way that avoid hiting Chinese mainland for a possible Taiwan scenario.

Yes, because the plans are mostly for a contained war around Taiwan, not an all out war between US and China, as the one being discussed here.

 

[Afif]

@contricusc About the possible blockade of China by USN in any future conflict, in this regard we should focus on the significance of the trillion dollars 'Belt and Road initiative'
And How it is going to shape the world economy in the long run by increasing trade via land routes. ( specially for participating countries )

 

[Afif]

 

[contricusc]

@contricusc About the possible blockade of China by USN in any future conflict, in this regard we should focus on the significance of the trillion dollars 'Belt and Road initiative'
And How it is going to shape the world economy in the long run by increasing trade via land routes. ( specially for participating countries )

Yes, the Belt and Road initiative makes a lot of sense in this context, as it acts as some sort of backup trade route for China in case it is subjected to a naval blockade.

 

[Nykyus]

Here, Russian geostrategist Andrey Shkolnikov reports that China cannot stop because it has invested too much in expansion. If China stops, then it will face the destruction and collapse of the country into separate provinces. China will try in the coming years to annex Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia, countries with large Chinese populations. China has given $400 billion to Pakistan. Thus, China will surround India from two sides.
The expansion of China will interfere with the United States. The United States has made China its main adversary.

He also says that the recent terrorist attack in Peshawar was orchestrated by Pashtuns. The Pashtuns do not recognize the Durand line, which divides the Pashtuns into 2 parts between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They want a unified state. Also, if the Pashtuns secede, then the Balochs will also want to secede. In this case, Pakistan loses half of its territory. The Pashtuns and Balochs are close to the Iranians, are nomads, and other Pakistanis are Indian in origin.

Yes, the Belt and Road initiative makes a lot of sense in this context, as it acts as some sort of backup trade route for China in case it is subjected to a naval blockade.

The US will try to destabilize and neutralize Russia.
The United States through Israel and Azerbaijan will strike at Iran. Azerbaijan will seek to destroy Iran, because there are about 20 million southern Azerbaijanis in Iran, centered in the city of Tabriz, with whom they want to unite.
Then the land routes for the delivery of oil and gas will be blocked.

 

[Gary]

Another hotspot in the making.

Mr Marcos did not specifically mention China in a speech to troops based in central Cebu province, but his message was delivered just two weeks after summoning the Chinese envoy to protest the use of a military-grade laser by the Chinese coastguard against a Philippine patrol vessel.​

​

“I’m saying that your mission in the AFP has changed,” Mr Marcos told the troops, referring to the Armed Forces of the Philippines. “For many, many years, we were able to maintain that peace and maintain that understanding with all of our neighbours. Now things have begun to change and we must adjust accordingly.”​

China accused of ‘harassment’ after dozens of its ships surround disputed island

Coast guard says 42 ships were seen close to Thitu Island, a Philippine-administered territory in the South China Sea

www.telegraph.co.uk

​

​

​

 

[Gary]

Here, Russian geostrategist Andrey Shkolnikov reports that China cannot stop because it has invested too much in expansion. If China stops, then it will face the destruction and collapse of the country into separate provinces. China will try in the coming years to annex Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia, countries with large Chinese populations. China has given $400 billion to Pakistan. Thus, China will surround India from two sides.
The expansion of China will interfere with the United States. The United States has made China its main adversary.

He also says that the recent terrorist attack in Peshawar was orchestrated by Pashtuns. The Pashtuns do not recognize the Durand line, which divides the Pashtuns into 2 parts between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They want a unified state. Also, if the Pashtuns secede, then the Balochs will also want to secede. In this case, Pakistan loses half of its territory. The Pashtuns and Balochs are close to the Iranians, are nomads, and other Pakistanis are Indian in origin.

The US will try to destabilize and neutralize Russia.
The United States through Israel and Azerbaijan will strike at Iran. Azerbaijan will seek to destroy Iran, because there are about 20 million southern Azerbaijanis in Iran, centered in the city of Tabriz, with whom they want to unite.
Then the land routes for the delivery of oil and gas will be blocked.

China going after Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore will be done long after Taiwan has been occupied.

And even then, it will be much more realistic to march into Vladivostok instead of landings in SE Asia.

I can see Indonesia, Malaysia radically shifts into more than 2% GDP spending on defense if Taiwan is captured. Even more so for Indonesia because we have 2 troubles North and South.

 

[Afif]

he mentioned a very interesting fact that that I didn’t know before, submarines won’t be able to effectively operate in the strait to prevent an Amphibious landing Given extreme lack of depth.

in my opinion, one of the decisive advantage USN still has over PLAN is its super quiet and unmatched SSN fleet, now if these assets cannot be utilised in Taiwan strait the chances of successful landing definitely becomes higher. Of course, USN subs can still launch a considerable amount of cruise missiles from stand off distance but still, it seems to me the most effective and primary deterrence against PLAN amphibious fleet is off the table, specially when It comes to 10k Tons heavy SSNs.
l@Gary @Nilgiri what do you guys think

 

[contricusc]

Here, Russian geostrategist Andrey Shkolnikov reports that China cannot stop because it has invested too much in expansion. If China stops, then it will face the destruction and collapse of the country into separate provinces.

That makes no sense. If China doesn’t attack its neighbors and lives in peace, the risk of destruction and break up is very small. But if China starts to invade its neighbors than yes, it may end up destroyed and separated into provinces.

 

[Afif]

That makes no sense. If China doesn’t attack its neighbors and lives in peace, the risk of destruction and break up is very small. But if China starts to invade its neighbors than yes, it may end up destroyed and separated into provinces.

I don’t think China has any intentions to invade its neighbours. Yes there is always little skirmish and dispute at the Indian border, but not something that serious or significant.

 

[contricusc]

I don’t think China has any intentions to invade its neighbours. Yes there is always little skirmish and dispute at the Indian border, but not something that serious or significant.

Taiwan is one of their neighbors, and they are constantly threatening it. Anyway, I don’t think they will try to invade it, as I think they are not that stupid.

 

[Afif]

Taiwan is one of their neighbors, and they are constantly threatening it. Anyway, I don’t think they will try to invade it, as I think they are not that stupid.

In case you don’t remember, Taiwan is an internationally recognised legal territory of People’s republic of China. It could be best described as an internal conflict if the so called invasion Ever occurs.

 

[Nilgiri]

he mentioned a very interesting fact that that I’d didn’t knew before, submarines won’t be able to effectively operate in the strait to prevent an Amphibious landing Given extreme lack of depth.

in my opinion, one of the decisive advantage USN still has over PLAN is its super quiet and unmatched SSN fleet, now if these assets cannot be utilised is Taiwan strait the chances of successful landing definitely becomes higher. Of course, USN subs can still launch a considerable amount of cruise missiles from stand off distance but still, it seems to me the most effective and primary deterrence against PLAN amphibious fleet is off the table, specially when It comes to 10k Tons heavy SSNs.
l@Gary @Nilgiri what do you guys think

SSN vulnerability in shallow straits is well known feature and large part of PLAN focus on SSK + AIP instead:

Essay: China's Submarine Solution for the Taiwan Strait - USNI News

China's Yuan-class submarine is designed to wage war in the Taiwan Strait.

news.usni.org

The US will likely have to mature things on the UUV front at more accelerated pace so that combined operations can be done by these with SSNs to enhance strengths and reduce weaknesses in this specific theatre.

This might be interesting read:

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45757.pdf

@Anmdt

 

[Gary]

he mentioned a very interesting fact that that I didn’t know before, submarines won’t be able to effectively operate in the strait to prevent an Amphibious landing Given extreme lack of depth.

This is well known, I've played enough war scenario in this particular PC game to come into that conclusion. There's no room for fast diving once you are detected.

Cold Waters - Killerfish Games

Spiritual Successor to the Microprose Classic Red Storm Rising

killerfishgames.com

in my opinion, one of the decisive advantage USN still has over PLAN is its super quiet and unmatched SSN fleet, now if these assets cannot be utilised in Taiwan strait the chances of successful landing definitely becomes higher.

They will be useful in the South China Sea/Philippine sea, strangling China's supply to their island base.

Of course, USN subs can still launch a considerable amount of cruise missiles from stand off distance but still, it seems to me the most effective and primary deterrence against PLAN amphibious fleet is off the table, specially when It comes to 10k Tons heavy SSNs.
l@Gary @Nilgiri what do you guys think

Imo, in the Taiwan strait, it will be up to U.S carriers air wing able to hold the invasion long enough until the tide no longer favors any landing in conjunction with Taiwan's own defensive coastal missiles. Not submarines.

 

[Afif]

This is well known, I've played enough war scenario in this particular PC game to come into that conclusion. There's no room for fast diving once you are detected.

Cold Waters - Killerfish Games

Spiritual Successor to the Microprose Classic Red Storm Rising

killerfishgames.com

They will be useful in the South China Sea/Philippine sea, strangling China's supply to their island base.



Imo, in the Taiwan strait, it will be up to U.S carriers air wing able to hold the invasion long enough until the tide no longer favors any landing in conjunction with Taiwan's own defensive coastal missiles. Not submarines.

What simulation you used in your wargames?
'Command modern operation'?

 

[Gary]

What simulation you used in your wargames?
'Command modern operation'?

I think the title "cold waters" is clear already hehe.

Yes I do once tried CMANO, but I have yet to master the game.