Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Relic

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USA 🇺🇸 has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $400 million usd. The contents of the package include the following.

- 32 Strykers APCs
- Hornet nano observation drones
- Additional AIM-120 / AIM-9X NASAMS missiles
- Additional 155mm artillery shells
- Additional 105mm artillery shells
- Additional 120mm mortar rounds
- Additional 60mm mortar rounds
- Additional GMLRS for HIMARS
- Additional Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
- Additional Javelin anti-armor missiles
- Additional AT4 and M72 LAW anti-armor missiles
- Additional TOW missiles
- Additional Hydra 70 air-to-ground rockets
- 28 million rounds of small arms munitions and grenades
- Night vision / thermal imagery systems
- Tactical air navigation systems
- Spare parts, training and other equipment

I'm really enjoying the fact that almost every drawdown package that USA sends right now has either Stryker APCs or Bradley IFVs (or both) included in it. Ukraine is slowly building a nice armored Corps featuring those two proven weapons of war.


Lithuania 🇱🇹 has also approved new a military aid package to Ukraine worth $221 million usd. The contents of the package were not disclosed but it touches several key areas including both lethal and non-lethal aid, training and repair work.

 
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Relic

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Another Russian KA-52 helicopter shot down newr the front. The Russian attack helicopter fleet continues to take a pounding in this war.


Russian reinforcements in the Andriivka / Klishchiivka area were decimated upon their arrival to the front. In this video you can see the carnage everywhere.


Recent destruction of tens of millions of dollars worth of Russian military equipment in the Bahkmut direction. Russians are retreating on this front.

 

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Another Russian KA-52 helicopter shot down newr the front. The Russian attack helicopter fleet continues to take a pounding in this war.


Russian reinforcements in the Andriivka / Klishchiivka area were decimated upon their arrival to the front. In this video you can see the carnage everywhere.


Recent destruction of tens of millions of dollars worth of Russian military equipment in the Bahkmut direction. Russians are retreating on this front.



Today in Andriivka / Klishchiivka area what happened is "gesture of a good will"
putin troops retreat victoriously. Ukraine army runs after them in panic




1690298330514.png
 

Relic

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Today in Andriivka / Klishchiivka area what happened is "gesture of a good will"
putin troops retreat victoriously. Ukraine army runs after them in panic




View attachment 59532
They've been getting battered there for a couple weeks and have incurred horrendous loses. The two Ukrainian Brigades (name the 3rd assault brigade) in that region have been doing incredible work, backed by Western artillery and HIMARS.

It's going to be extremely important that as that 3rd assault brigade faces attrition that they have time to rest and reconstitute. Furthermore, they've proven so effective that there should be absolutely no hesitation in providing them the best replacement equipment possible as they complete their southern component of the Bakhmut encirclement. Their M113 APCs should be upgraded to Stryker APCs. Their IFVs should be the best BMP-2s in Ukraine's inventory. Their attached MBT's should be upgraded from T-64's to Polish supplied PT-91 Twardys and their attached artillery should be a mix of 2S7 Pions and CAESAR / Krab 155mm howitzers. Finally, the helicopter air support for them should be exceptional, with a number of MI-24s with S-13 and Hydra-70 rockets supporting their advancement, an experienced drone battalion with both surveillance and kamikaze drones in the their arsenal and and multiple HIMARS / M270s attached to them, providing long range, precision support.

Spare no expenses for that brigade. They've been fantastic.
 

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Iran hinted that they no longer pursue the Su-35.



That means, the remaining 24 ex-Egyptian order could be inducted for their own use. Enough for 2 squadrons and more than enough to replace all their 4th gen jet they lost since the start of the war.
 

Relic

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Iran hinted that they no longer pursue the Su-35.



That means, the remaining 24 ex-Egyptian order could be inducted for their own use. Enough for 2 squadrons and more than enough to replace all their 4th gen jet they lost since the start of the war.
Unfortunately for them, their SU-35s are having very little overall impact on the war because they have a juicy radar signature and they are absolutely petrified of flying them anywhere near tier 1 or tier 2 Ukrainian air defense. One of the most perplexing aspects of this war has been Russia's complete inability to achieve air superiority, despite a vastly more modern and robust air force. Besides their long range bombers and odd Su-35 launching long range standoff weapons from Russian and Belarusian airspace, as well from over the sea, Russia's air force has performed extremely poorly throughout the conflict. It's even worse now that Russia has depleted its long range missile arsenal to the point that they are clearly rationing them and no longer trying to strike at heavily defended, Ukrainian military infrastructure in places like Kyiv and Lviv. Recently, Russia has essentially been mitigated to targeting objects of opportunity such as grain storage facilities. Their missile production is such that they can basically throw one or two tantrums per month, most of which is intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. After that, their Air Force essentially sits in the corner and sucks its collective thumb for the next few weeks. Once in a while they have some effectiveness with their KA-52 helicopters against Ukrainian ground columns, but every time they introduce another handful of KA-52s into a particular theater, they lose half of them in short order and withdraw them again due to expense.
 

contricusc

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How about the Europeans first do so and match the American provision dollar for dollar....

Europe will have to start taking care of its own affairs on its continent more going forward....

So far Europeans have given more aid to Ukraine than the US.

Here‘s a statistic:

You can see that if you add the EU Institutions, UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, you get a total of 70 billion euros, which equals the amount given by the US.

Now you can add all other European countries and the aid is obviously more than that of the US.

There are also additional considerations, such as European countries receiving millions of Ukrainians as refugees, providing them a safe place and in many cases jobs and money, so that they can support the Ukrainian economy going forward. This kind of help is not included in the above numbers.

You can also add the fact that European military help has been represented by larger quantities of cheaper weapons, instead of overly expensive systems that boost the numbers but don’t provide nearly as much utility in the war. All the Soviet era weapons and munitions provided by Eastern European countries don’t have a high market value, but have been extremely important for the Ukrainian war effort. They are probabaly all valued together as much as a single Patriot air defence system, but their impact on the war is obviously much bigger.

What I am trying to point out here is that the US is inflating its numbers to look good, but in the end most of the money is recycled through the US economy as they are spent buying ovely expensive US systems.

The pound for pound help measured in numbers of vehicles, weapons and ammunition greatly favors the Europeans.
 

Relic

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So far Europeans have given more aid to Ukraine than the US.

Here‘s a statistic:

You can see that if you add the EU Institutions, UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, you get a total of 70 billion euros, which equals the amount given by the US.

Now you can add all other European countries and the aid is obviously more than that of the US.

There are also additional considerations, such as European countries receiving millions of Ukrainians as refugees, providing them a safe place and in many cases jobs and money, so that they can support the Ukrainian economy going forward. This kind of help is not included in the above numbers.

You can also add the fact that European military help has been represented by larger quantities of cheaper weapons, instead of overly expensive systems that boost the numbers but don’t provide nearly as much utility in the war. All the Soviet era weapons and munitions provided by Eastern European countries don’t have a high market value, but have been extremely important for the Ukrainian war effort. They are probabaly all valued together as much as a single Patriot air defence system, but their impact on the war is obviously much bigger.

What I am trying to point out here is that the US is inflating its numbers to look good, but in the end most of the money is recycled through the US economy as they are spent buying ovely expensive US systems.

The pound for pound help measured in numbers of vehicles, weapons and ammunition greatly favors the Europeans.
The entirety of Europe are not the problem. There are key members of Europe (looking at you France) that are not pulling their weight compared to the likes of Germany, Poland, Britain and the Baltic States.
 
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Relic

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The break through in that area is undeniably significant at this point. Ukraine is likely going to be forced to send reserves from elsewhere in order to stop the advancement, which was Russia's plan for this offensive. They're taking the pressure off of the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia fronts, by forcing Ukraine's hand and requiring them yonrelocate significant assets to the region.
 

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Unfortunately for them, their SU-35s are having very little overall impact on the war because they have a juicy radar signature and they are absolutely petrified of flying them anywhere near tier 1 or tier 2 Ukrainian air defense. One of the most perplexing aspects of this war has been Russia's complete inability to achieve air superiority, despite a vastly more modern and robust air force. Besides their long range bombers and odd Su-35 launching long range standoff weapons from Russian and Belarusian airspace, as well from over the sea, Russia's air force has performed extremely poorly throughout the conflict. It's even worse now that Russia has depleted its long range missile arsenal to the point that they are clearly rationing them and no longer trying to strike at heavily defended, Ukrainian military infrastructure in places like Kyiv and Lviv. Recently, Russia has essentially been mitigated to targeting objects of opportunity such as grain storage facilities. Their missile production is such that they can basically throw one or two tantrums per month, most of which is intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. After that, their Air Force essentially sits in the corner and sucks its collective thumb for the next few weeks. Once in a while they have some effectiveness with their KA-52 helicopters against Ukrainian ground columns, but every time they introduce another handful of KA-52s into a particular theater, they lose half of them in short order and withdraw them again due to expense.

Hehe, juicy radar signature has nothing to do with VKS failure. Their failure is due to:
  1. Failure to train their airmen to do joint complex air operation prior to war
  2. Failure to develop necessary targetting solution and C4ISR prior to war
  3. Failure to train its airmen for complex SEAD/DEAD operations prior to the war
  4. Over emphasis on the old way of CAS (using rockets and iron bombs + low level)
  5. Which resulted in the VKS early losses.
Now one by one due to the war, there will be improvement...so it makes sense that they would want to continue investing in more Su-35.

We already saw for example:
  1. The exponentially increased use of glide bombs like UMPK kit, able to be thrown from a lot higher altitude and from longer distance than any previous Russian bomb
  2. Increasing effectivity of Russian ability to locate and destroy Ukraine's mobile launchers
  3. Russian coordinated strikes using hybrid high-low, fast-slow munitions to overwhelm enemy defence, such as the pairing of Shahed 136 and Kinzhal (which fail in its first attempt, but there is room to improve)

There's also a much ignored facts that Russian air force continue to cause so many deaths to Ukraine's fighter pilot especially the MiG-31s and Su-35Ss.

Also has anyone noticed that Russia isn't investing in more Su-25s, instead producing more and more Su-30/35/57 ? For me this is a cue to what the VKS are gearing up for, a more high tech, precise methods of conducting air warfare. This is quite a contrast from the army which, while retaining the production line of modern T-90s also re-introduce the refurbishment of older tanks.

I think in a year of two we will see a completely reborn and redesigned VKS. More lethal than the one we saw in the first 3 months of the war.
 

Relic

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Hehe, juicy radar signature has nothing to do with VKS failure. Their failure is due to:
  1. Failure to train their airmen to do joint complex air operation prior to war
  2. Failure to develop necessary targetting solution and C4ISR prior to war
  3. Failure to train its airmen for complex SEAD/DEAD operations prior to the war
  4. Over emphasis on the old way of CAS (using rockets and iron bombs + low level)
  5. Which resulted in the VKS early losses.
Now one by one due to the war, there will be improvement...so it makes sense that they would want to continue investing in more Su-35.

We already saw for example:
  1. The exponentially increased use of glide bombs like UMPK kit, able to be thrown from a lot higher altitude and from longer distance than any previous Russian bomb
  2. Increasing effectivity of Russian ability to locate and destroy Ukraine's mobile launchers
  3. Russian coordinated strikes using hybrid high-low, fast-slow munitions to overwhelm enemy defence, such as the pairing of Shahed 136 and Kinzhal (which fail in its first attempt, but there is room to improve)

There's also a much ignored facts that Russian air force continue to cause so many deaths to Ukraine's fighter pilot especially the MiG-31s and Su-35Ss.

Also has anyone noticed that Russia isn't investing in more Su-25s, instead producing more and more Su-30/35/57 ? For me this is a cue to what the VKS are gearing up for, a more high tech, precise methods of conducting air warfare. This is quite a contrast from the army which, while retaining the production line of modern T-90s also re-introduce the refurbishment of older tanks.

I think in a year of two we will see a completely reborn and redesigned VKS. More lethal than the one we saw in the first 3 months of the war.
None of this refutes anything I said. Russia's far superior Air Force has been deeply underperforming since the outset of the conflict. Their inability to achieve air superiority is one of the most shockingly bad performances in modern military history.

516 days into the war and they are no closer to becoming a factor in the outcome of the war. Instead, as Ukrainian air defense improves (especially over key areas) Russia's ability to project power into Ukraine, via their air force, gets worse and worse.

This was the group that was trained to potentially combat American, British, French and German pilots in a European war type situation? It would be a friggen turkey shoot.
 

Nilgiri

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So far Europeans have given more aid to Ukraine than the US.

Here‘s a statistic:

You can see that if you add the EU Institutions, UK, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, you get a total of 70 billion euros, which equals the amount given by the US.

Now you can add all other European countries and the aid is obviously more than that of the US.

There are also additional considerations, such as European countries receiving millions of Ukrainians as refugees, providing them a safe place and in many cases jobs and money, so that they can support the Ukrainian economy going forward. This kind of help is not included in the above numbers.

You can also add the fact that European military help has been represented by larger quantities of cheaper weapons, instead of overly expensive systems that boost the numbers but don’t provide nearly as much utility in the war. All the Soviet era weapons and munitions provided by Eastern European countries don’t have a high market value, but have been extremely important for the Ukrainian war effort. They are probabaly all valued together as much as a single Patriot air defence system, but their impact on the war is obviously much bigger.

What I am trying to point out here is that the US is inflating its numbers to look good, but in the end most of the money is recycled through the US economy as they are spent buying ovely expensive US systems.

The pound for pound help measured in numbers of vehicles, weapons and ammunition greatly favors the Europeans.

My point is more focused on the hard military aid, since thats what keeps ukraine political survival and sovereignty.

Humanitarian aid and so on could/would be provided whatever the existence status of Ukraine (in the worst case scenario reference....to both folks living under occupation there and the refugees that have fled to other countries, mostly Europe as it would make most sense).

But when I look at things like this:


Why exactly is such low interest on the matter being taken by countries like France, Italy and Spain?

Their commitments all range in the 0.4 - 0.7 billion USD when it comes to military aid.

Scaling to GDP, that would be like US giving something like 4 billion USD in military aid to Ukraine so far and having maybe another cpl billion in the pipeline (if it had the attitude of France here).

When France is literally far closer to Ukraine battlefield consequences than the US is.

Given political environment shaping up in US, European countries should at least hold these others to account.

A great deal of damage was already done by European countries (by their own logic now) in not taking the first intervention by Russia in 2014 seriously, and continuing a whole host of economic investments and trade with them as normal (if we are to apply some expectation of foresight from the logic and foreign policy developed today by same countries).

Your argument that the US provision numbers are "inflated" and just being "recycled" somehow is not one I take seriously, lets leave it at that.

Firstly these are things being given to Ukraine....and they are happy to have it. Lets get that clear.

NATO military equipment being expensive compared to what former eastern bloc countries have to donate from former arsenals (and this being "cheaper" meaning US donation is inflated cost) is also a bad argument.

NATO militaries invest these costs to win wars (quickly) of a completely different nature to the one that can be sustained in Ukraine now.

i.e NATO is unable to/uwilling to get into the kind of sanitised approach they would otherwise bring to bear with air and naval forces to best maximise mostly ground force equipment and general munitions being sent to Ukraine...along with the piecemeal things done for air and navy (given ukraine force structure being extremely low here).

This is large reason why Biden incompetently let it slip that there is a munition issue surfacing for the US own stockpile and basic own needs for other world theatre risk analysis.... (i.e their military capacity just wasnt designed for this kind of stuck war and its imposing needs on say artillery for little ground gain....given the delegation by NATO to say the airforce to take care of this far more optimally)....as part of the reason why cluster munitions are being sent now compared to say regular H.E.

This is why Europe collectively should have taken care of itself from 2014 especially far more realistically and practically....compared to route it overall elected for from 2014 - 2022....given it shares the same continent and should know the Russian psyche much more than the average American upstream to a politician does here... (just ask a Finn or Polish for example).

In Germany case as just one example, start LNG supply analysis with alternatives, give as little investment to Russia as possible, help build up Ukrainian capacities (in say its AF seriously for the longer term) and make the hard choices on spending to the German military needs so you dont have half or more of your PzH 2000 in unready mothballed state.

Backfilling all of this now by a war NATO is not really geared for means you get relatively high costs, low results and stuff like ammo and munitions running out over time when theres frontline stagnation.... because its all transfered to Ukraines own final tier wherewithal and capacity....which while tough and resilient one lacks a great many things to get these operating like NATO envisaged in its own case...both at scale and depths.

Then the hard military back filling itself is done in very limited way by some large economies + large militaries of Europe relative to US.

This is making the argument lot harder than it needs to be to sustain for folks here that wish Ukraine well....especially in times its going to take to ramp up investment of the kind of munitions this new kind of war demands from NATO earlier wargamed analysis w.r.t reliance on what I mentioned earlier (making the frontlines move with heavy AF use and keeping the war much shorter in duration and not an artillery slogfest for 2 years or however long its going to be).

There are an incredible number of people that dont care about Ukraine much or even love Russia in whatever way here (mostly some social conservative identification or pro-isolationist, pro realist approach or even far left tankies actively seeking to undermine US that they live in)..... that are acting in concert on this side of the pond......that will have political ramifications that Europe should have been preparing a long while ago, not just now.

They look at every minute detail and wage war of attrition on US support to Ukraine....to gain every bit of room they can in the grey area of general support that still exists in the population.

I'm just telling you (well all of you, your reply just gave me an opportunity to air this out) the hard reality of the situation I sense thats changed since last year.
 

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None of this refutes anything I said. Russia's far superior Air Force has been deeply underperforming since the outset of the conflict. Their inability to achieve air superiority is one of the most shockingly bad performances in modern military history.

516 days into the war and they are no closer to becoming a factor in the outcome of the war. Instead, as Ukrainian air defense improves (especially over key areas) Russia's ability to project power into Ukraine, via their air force, gets worse and worse.

This was the group that was trained to potentially combat American, British, French and German pilots in a European war type situation? It would be a friggen turkey shoot.
It doesn't refute, but it clears some misdirected information. You see, the USAF isn't that decisive factor either during the Vietnam war, even though they have the undisputed quality and quantity. It was USAF lessons in the Vietnam air campaign that transform the USAF into the monster we saw in 1991.

The Russian VKS is in their own phase of Vietnam war that USAF once experienced, it will be naive to think that they wouldn't improve substantially as the war goes by, and because they will improve eventually, there is no reason not to invest in more and newer airframes.
The USAF doesn't stop developing and producing F-4 Phantoms just because the F-4s are getting blown by inferior MiG-17 in Vietnam.
 

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How the (Ukrainian) Third Assault Division launched a counteroffensive on Bakhmut​

 

contricusc

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Why exactly is such low interest on the matter being taken by countries like France, Italy and Spain?

Their commitments all range in the 0.4 - 0.7 billion USD when it comes to military aid.

Unfortunately Macron always considerd Putin and Russia as a potential ally and this war went against his geopolitical plans and ambitions. He hoped the war could be ended rapidly through a negotiated settlement and relations with Russia returned to the pre-war era. France started to send more help only after Macron realized that there is no going back to the pre-invasion world order, and thet Putin’s Russia will remain a pariah state, so there is no benefit from cultivating a good relation with Putin anymore.

In Italy, before Georgia Meloni became Prime Minister, the political establishment dominated by the left was sympathetic to Russia because of their communist leanings. Even Matteo Salvini from La Lega (which was supposed to be a right wing party) was a friend of Putin, so the coalition government was made of pro-Putin politicians until the elections and Meloni’s success. Once the power changed, Italy started to send more help to Ukraine and to have a more hardline stance against Russia.

Spain also has a socialist leader in Sanchez, who is supported by outright communist coalition partners (like Iglesias), so it is natural for them to sympathize with Putin. As long as hard left socialists and neo-communists are in power, you won’t see much help for Ukraine, because deep down in their hearts, all communists love Russia and hate the West.

Your argument that the US provision numbers are "inflated" and just being "recycled" somehow is not one I take seriously, lets leave it at that.

Firstly these are things being given to Ukraine....and they are happy to have it. Lets get that clear.

I’m not saying the US is not donating the weapons to Ukraine. What I am pointing out is that the numbers are inflated because the weapons are overly expensive since they are “made in USA”, so they are made with huge wages and profit margins. When the US donates a Patriot system worth 1 billion dollars, the majority of that value goes back to the US economy through high wages, rents, taxes, etc.. On the other hand, when Germany donates a US made Patriot system, most of the value goes to the US as well.

If you look at actual numbers of artillery systems, tanks, IFVs, etc., you will see that European donations are much higher than US donations.

Just because one Patriot system is more expensive than 100 Cesar self-propelled artillery systems, it doesn’t mean that donating one Patriot is more useful than donating 100 Cesars. The effect on the war of 100 Cesars is surely much bigger than the effect of one Patriot battery.

NATO military equipment being expensive compared to what former eastern bloc countries have to donate from former arsenals (and this being "cheaper" meaning US donation is inflated cost) is also a bad argument.

NATO militaries invest these costs to win wars (quickly) of a completely different nature to the one that can be sustained in Ukraine now.

This is not a bad argument. It has been proven during this war that a tank is a tank, and there is not much difference in effectiveness between a very expensive modern tank and an older one. While they are not equivalent, the price difference does not reflect the war value difference. It’s better for Ukraine to get 10 cheaper tanks than one more advanced tank that costs as much as the other 10.

When measuring military aid, it is not only about the dollars, but about the actual military aid provided. Ukraine would win the war if it had one Patriot worth of 155 mm of artillery munition at its disposal and one Patriot worth of modern artillery systems to deliver them. The problem is, you cannot find $1 billion worth of 155mm munitions because nobody has the stocks.

European help has been more focused on quantity of equipment rather than dollar value. Ukraine gets much more help from one billion dollars worth of Czech help than one billion dollars worth of US help.
 

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