Regarding my earlier point. China wants the high seas to be pirates of the Carribbean
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Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations
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Regarding my earlier point. China wants the high seas to be pirates of the Carribbean
ChadThunder74
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Gary
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There goes your Chinese savior HAHA @MaciekRS
again you don't have to be a political scientist to understand why this move by Houthis ABSOLUTELY helps China in the Pacific.
Ehhh even if they want to they can't.
For one, Chinese anti piracy task force in the area actually didn't respond to any of the attacks attacks, even though they're nearby.
6 More Chinese Warships Show Up In Indian Ocean As Beijing Expands Presence
With three warships of the 44th anti-piracy mission in the Persian Gulf-Oman area, the Chinese have pushed in the 45th anti-piracy mission. Besides the warships, Chinese ships crisscross the Indian Ocean., World News, Times Nowwww.timesnownews.com
Second, If you missed anything the redirection of both assets and attention of Western navies to the Middle East is a big relief for China's ambition in the Pacific, and a big blow to America's so called " pivot to the Pacific" which in one way or another failed to be implemented since its announcement back during the Obama administration. LOL.
Third, even if Egypt would want to do anything about that, at max they're sending warships...guarding a sea lane that nobody uses anymore.
Invading Yemen is out of the question, because the last thing Al-Sisi wants is to be seen as openly complicit to the Israelis + the Egyptian army isn't that big of an expeditionary force to begin with. They tried once, get bloodied in the nose, never to try similar attempt ever since
mehmed beg
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Oruc Bay and Hayrudin Bay are back. Nice.
The only thing that Seychelles are the ace up the sleeve. I think that they can make a tangible difference.
What a circus, Elon Musk thinks about Mars but people with the slippers " Not yet Amigo " . Wind sailing boats, making Little Heinrich train toy late for Christmas. Hahaha
Imagine, to hit a ship for the first time in history with ballistic missille while on the watch of 800bn Navy . All of that , while wearing the slippers and do recce with a bath tub. ? Hahaha
The only thing that Seychelles are the ace up the sleeve. I think that they can make a tangible difference.
What a circus, Elon Musk thinks about Mars but people with the slippers " Not yet Amigo " . Wind sailing boats, making Little Heinrich train toy late for Christmas. Hahaha
Imagine, to hit a ship for the first time in history with ballistic missille while on the watch of 800bn Navy . All of that , while wearing the slippers and do recce with a bath tub. ? Hahaha
Piracy is going to affect smaller countries much more than the west and China. Especially with inflation. In the long run, it will hurt all pro-Hamas countries.
Gary
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This is too early to tell, but let's say it's true, I don't mind spending a few more for the groceries I buy.
Just the satisfaction of looking Eilat deprived of traffic and jobs already justify that.
I heard the price of gasoline are rising in Europe as well.
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I don't think India is pro Hamas country
Red Sea blockade will have an direct impact on India’s trade, says former ambassador
Red Sea crisis hits global trade; Former ambassador Anil Trigunayat sounds alarm for India
=====
In the event that the Red Sea is closed long-term, Europe and states on the Mediterranean will bear the brunt of the damage.
The Costs the Houthis Are Poised to Inflict on the Global Economy
If the Red Sea "blockade" by the Yemeni rebel group continues, the impact on consumers and on local states will be considerable.
mehmed beg
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There is always open possibility for Israel to pick up its shit and end war . Or split all those billions with " poor " people.
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Is Israel’s offensive succeeding or failing?
Israel says it has degraded 10 out of 24 Hamas battalions and killed thousands of fighters. But Hamas is still fighting and its top leaders are still alive.Dec. 22, 2023, 1:00 AM +06
By Dan De Luce
Israel’s military offensive in Gaza has inflicted significant damage on Hamas but it appears a long way from delivering the death blow to the Palestinian militants that Israeli leaders vowed when the assault began 11 weeks ago.
In slow-moving, street-to-street fighting backed up by relentless bombing raids, Israel says it has scored battlefield gains against Hamas and begun to dismantle its military infrastructure. But experts and former U.S. military officers say that the progress is temporary and that there is no sign the militants are on the verge of a strategic defeat.
“I wouldn’t call it impossible, but I think the likelihood is becoming increasingly small that they will achieve the strategic goal of eliminating Hamas as a threat,” said retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Michael Nagata, who oversaw special operations forces in the Middle East.
The limited success against Hamas has come at a high price, in civilian lives and international political outrage directed at Israel’s government. On Wednesday, the rising death toll for Palestinian civilians reached a grim milestone of 20,000, according to Gaza health authorities.
Israel so far has failed to achieve several key goals that it set for the campaign.
Hamas’ senior leaders remain alive. The group’s military infrastructure has been hit hard but not wiped out. The group continues to hold dozens of hostages and Hamas remains the sole governing authority in the Gaza Strip, despite vows from Israel to permanently oust the militants from political power.
Meanwhile, Israel’s main adversary, Iran, stands to benefit from the conflict, which it helped provoke through its decadeslong support for Hamas.
The Israel Defense Forces says that it has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, “significantly damaged” 10 out of 24 1,000-strong battalions, destroyed hundreds of tunnel shafts, uncovered weapons stashes and that its troops now have achieved “operational freedom” in Gaza City in the enclave’s north.
The IDF has poured troops and resources into the offensive, with four divisions now operating in the Gaza Strip, including paratroopers from the 98th division leading an assault in Khan Younis in the enclave’s south, where Hamas leaders are believed to be based.
Deeper into the offensive, Israeli casualties have ticked up in the close quarters combat. The IDF says 134 of its troops have been killed in the Gaza offensive, including nine who died in a Hamas ambush last week.
Since the Israel offensive began, Hamas’ rocket attacks on Israel have dramatically declined — a sign that the group’s operations have been disrupted, experts say.
But Israel now finds itself caught in a bind between contradictory objectives: The more military success it achieves in its war with Hamas, the higher the Palestinian civilian death toll and the more Israel risks losing support from its most important ally, the United States.
“Every bit of progress they make towards their strategic goal increasingly damages their reputation internationally and makes it harder for their allies and supporters to continue to support them,” said Nagata, who helped lead the fight against the Islamic State terrorist group's militants in Syria and Iraq.
Democrats in Congress and some former U.S. military officers argue Israel should pull back from heavy bombing and a full-blown ground invasion and instead carry out more calibrated raids with fewer troops on the ground targeting Hamas leaders, weapons caches and tunnels. They also argue Israel should combine its military effort with a major diplomatic push for political dialogue with Palestinian representatives in the West Bank and with Arab governments in the region.
But Israeli officials and supporters of Israel say the country had no alternative to a large-scale combat operation to shore up Israel’s security in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks, and that Hamas’ vast tunnel network required a major offensive to dismantle. They also say that Israel has come under criticism for its tactics in the past even when previous operations were more limited.
IDF officers say they need to keep up the ground offensive for several months to fulfill their goals but time may be running out.
Biden administration officials, under criticism abroad and at home to persuade Israel to safeguard civilian lives in Gaza, have been pressing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to scale back the current operation to a more calibrated, limited effort.
“The real question is whether they are making military progress fast enough before the political clock runs out,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp. think tank, who recently returned from a trip to the region. “The IDF will tell you that they think they need several more months of large-scale combat operations to fully destroy Hamas’ military capabilities.”
The civilian death toll and the diminishing prospects of a decisive outcome will force Israel’s hand soon and lead to a more scaled-back campaign, a former senior Israeli official said.
“I think we’re reaching a point where this will not be able to continue in this current form,” the former Israeli official told NBC News. “I would assume that sometime in the beginning of January we will see a shift.”
Israel launched its offensive in Gaza after Hamas militants swarmed into Israel on Oct. 7, killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seized 240 hostages, per Israeli officials.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack that caught Israel by surprise and shocked the country, Israeli leaders vowed to retaliate to prevent a similar attack in the future. They outlined plans to eliminate Hamas’ leadership, dismantle its entire chain of command and ensure Hamas will no longer control the Gaza Strip.
The IDF says it has taken out dozens of Hamas military commanders in recent weeks. But the militant group’s chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and its top military commander, Muhammad Deif, remain alive and in charge.
“We have not been able to do that," remove Hamas’ leaders, the former senior Israeli official said. “That is a big, big issue that is putting pressure on the military.”
If Israeli forces do not manage to kill or capture the top Hamas leaders, the Israeli public almost certainly will view the outcome as a failure.
Past Israeli assaults in Gaza over the years, including an Israeli ground invasion in 2014, have killed Hamas leaders and seized weaponry. But the militants later regrouped and rearmed in each case.
A senior Biden administration official said the Israeli offensive has been successful in removing Hamas commanders and midlevel commanders.
“They’ve eliminated quite a bunch of Hamas leadership at various levels,” the official said. “They are making progress against the leaders. There’s no doubt about that. But it is a big, well-oiled, organized military machine that they’re up against, and so they believe that they still have more work to do.”
In U.S. operations against terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda or ISIS over the past two decades, American commanders eventually recognized that battlefield successes — including killing senior figures — produced only temporary benefits. The extremist groups, fueled by ideology and feeding off of power vacuums, could replace their commanders, adapt and survive.
According to U.S. intelligence reporting shared with lawmakers, even if Israel succeeds in taking out the senior leadership of Hamas, the group will remain a threat as it is based on an idea of resistance, congressional aides said.
A growing number of Democrats in Congress, including military veterans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, have cited that experience and questioned Israel’s tactics, arguing that heavy bombardment and steep civilian casualties are counterproductive methods that threaten to provide more fuel to extremists.
Six Democrats who served in the military and in the CIA wrote a letter to President Joe Biden on Monday, urging him to use all U.S. leverage at his disposal to persuade Israel to change course in its offensive.
“Most of us spent years of our lives fighting in the U.S. global war on terrorism. And one of the most important lessons we learned during that period is that military power has limitations,” Democratic Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado, who signed the letter, told NBC News’ Garrett Haake. “You can’t bomb away a terrorist ideology. And we want to take that lesson and we want to impart that lesson on our key partner Israel here who we are afraid is moving in the very wrong direction,” said Crow, who served as an Army paratrooper in Iraq.
No matter how effective its military offensive, Israel will be hard pressed to decimate Hamas as it enjoys a global network of patrons and backers beyond Gaza, Nagata said.
“They can go after fighters, they can go after leaders, they can go after weapons' caches, they can go after all these things that are inside of Gaza. But what Israel is unable to do is take apart the entire international network that also comprises much of what Hamas is,” he said.
While Israel has pressed its assault on Hamas with mixed results, experts and former U.S. and Israeli officials say the crisis has been a strategic boon for Iran, Russia and China. The U.S. adversaries see Washington struggling to defend Israel on the world stage and to organize an international response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
“They clearly are the strategic beneficiaries of what has happened,” one former Israeli official said.
Is Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza succeeding?
Israel says it has degraded 10 out of 24 Hamas battalions and killed thousands of fighters. But Hamas is still fighting and its top leaders are still alive.
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Hamas has achieved much more than an armed resistance with the military operation it launched here. It has been revealed that the West's approach to human rights and freedom of the press is clearly a lie. We actually knew this was the case. But now there are new generations in the West who believe this. These are young people. These people think Israel is cruel. Again, in the West, it has been seen that it is a futile effort to control the press and expect people to believe a lie. This audience I'm talking about can mostly learn what's going on without censorship on social media (mostly on X. Thanks to Elon Musk). And the sociological consequences of this will affect the future of Western countries.
Beyond this, the West no longer has the credibility to preach human rights to the global south or to the countries it looks down on.
This will have diplomatic consequences.
Finally, if we return to Gaza;
I think Israel will eventually have to accept defeat as the conflict spreads to Lebanon. Israel is completely blind to its strategic failure and shortcomings. They cannot think about their needs or priorities correctly. And no matter how good your military technology is. Human resources are not unlimited. The soldiers you send to the front will either die, be injured, become psychologically depressed and go astray, and some will even commit suicide. I guess no one thinks about the economic and sociological destruction this will cause. Because untrained soldiers going to the front will have an important place in the Israeli economy. It is obvious that Israel, which is already demographically poor, cannot afford long-term wars.
If Israel requests support from the United States (in case the conflict expands to Lebanon), it will lose control of operational decision-making processes to the United States. The USA, which has only been pressuring Israel by cutting off aid until now, will now have to take more responsibility and will have the opportunity to determine the final target of the operations on its own.
Moreover, the USA's involvement here will reduce its military capacity and budget allocated to different regions. The extra costs arising from this preoccupation will force them to limit their approach to the conflicts in Palestine in Ukraine and a possible Taiwan-Philippines crisis. In any case, a direct proxy war with Iran is the biggest trap for the USA. This could cost them huge military and financial costs. It may prevent them from using their resources more efficiently. China's unwillingness to join the coalition established by the USA in Yemen and their desire to ensure the security of their own fleet with its own navy will be a disappointment for those who expect China to put pressure on Iran in the event of a regional war.
Gary
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They will never have any end state, what they have or will have is now a a mobilization of Muslims all around the world who will now have so much hatred for these people that the idea of total wipeout will not only be acceptable but endorsed.
Israel whose entire security is dependant on the power they "borrowed" from the U.S. and the West will now have only one choice going forward, defend themselves in perpetual fear that harm will eventually come for them and their family. In the meantime, while the U.S. is the sole superpower and the undisputed police of the global order their life is relatively safe and tranquil, but their "safety' is leaning on borrowed time because the U.S. would simply not be there indefinitely.
These people reminded me of the Dutch protected class in Indonesia, who lived on top of people suffering, protected by the European imperial superiority of the Belle Epoch, thinking that life would stay that way forever...until the time came and their colonies were finally swallowed by Imperial Japan.
Image: A typical Dutch settler in the early 1900s, just like Israelis now, none of them would expect that in a few years their life will be torn apart, many of their men are killed, and sent to slave labor while their wives raped both by Japanese and later by Indonesian nationalists.
Jan Ruff O'Herne - Wikipedia
See the similarity now with Israel ?
In the end, I promise you this, we will make the tragedy in Gaza look like a joke once they are left on their own in the sea of a forecasted 1.1 Billion Arabs at the end of the century, 2.5 billion if you count many Muslim majority countries.
We are in the 2020s yes? Just to be clear with you here, from 2023 to 2100 is the same time needed for the Europeans to go from this
to this
And it will be be only getting worse for the West, because they simply are already reaching the last stage of the 7-stage of an empire. Once they collapse or retreats back into irrelevance that's it for Israel, there will be no more free bombs coming out fresh from European/American factories, no free money to sustain their economy, no free support whatsoever.
Once that day comes, Israel is on their own and they'll figure out what kind of brutality humans are capable of.
In the meantime I've already mentioned how their plan to displace Gazans to the Sinai will benefit ISIS-Sinai by offering them plenty of manpower (many of Gazans are young teens, perfect for combatants). Good, until a sufficient power emerges in the Middle East to wipe out Israel, I'm pragmatic to the idea that terrorists will do the dirty job of making people's lives in israel miserable. ISIS is not HAMAS, they don't have the same way of thinking when it comes to cost-benefit analysis. If ISIS finds a way to attack they will do so without hesitation, because they simply don't care about "opinions".
Don't get me wrong, I don't endorse terrorist groups, but I saw many uses of these people in the meantime. War must not stop because the many nation state in the Middle East don't want their business to be disrupted by war.
Previously I have also put the case why war is good for the Middle East, and keeping the Middle East at perpetual war maintains the war like mentality that will be useful to enhance the know-how of the arts and crafts of warfare.
Please note that while the gunpowder was invented in China, it was eventually the Europeans that perfected the science of gunpowder use for military application and warfare, resulting in their rise to the mastery of the world starting in the 17th century by subjugating the entire world. When I look at the Middle East I can't help but see the similarity of the Middle East now to Europe when they were in the late Medieval times. They're plenty, poor, many are uneducated and most importantly they are tough and war-like.
And now put that 2023-2100 timeline I put earlier and you will be naive to think that the Islamic world will stay that way moving forward, already in our lifetime we saw "armed groups" like the Houthi's playing the big dick game by closing the Red sea with sophisticated anti ship weaponry, armed groups in Iraq launching loitering munitions when just 20 years ago they're dependant on roadside bombs to target U.S military. It is also in our lifetime that we finally see competent Middle Eastern armies in the form of the likes of ISIS, Jabhat Al-Nusra, and very recently Hamas and their surprise attack. It is also in our lifetime that we see firsthand how Israel is losing the narrative game after them so long controlling it.
It will only get better for us, and getting worse for Israel. That is sure.
Gary
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First of all I don't believe there is a military solution to this conflict. Pushing on military to the "end" will have very serious political consequences and following military conflicts could be born from that. I don't think this is in the interests of any country in the region including Israel.
When it comes to tactical and operational level I can say that as long as there is no effective solution to the sophisticated tunnel network of Hamas Israel will suffer more and more casualties. The only thing Israel is lucky about is the unlimited foreign support that Israel can get in terms of military equipment in case of a need and the fact that one of the most effective and often used weapons of Hamas, the locally produced Yasin 105 which is based on PG-7VR (above 20% malfunction reported) is likely even worse and less reliable than its original.
Israel has to minimize casualties in order to achieve its military goal. While it sounds easy this is very hard. Israel's armor prioritizes survivability above all and for now looking at it the vehicles are doing their job good, but there is more serious problem in IDF. The problem is called unexperienced, badly prepared conscripts, bad habits like crowding in risky places, lack of discipline and unexperienced commanding personnel that is resulting in situation like bad perimeter security etc. With time the experience will come and less mistakes will be made, but even if that is the case the tunnel problem is persisting. I don't even want to comment on the hostages, because IDF clearly showed that collateral damage is not a thing that it cares about no matter if this means Palestinian civilian or Israeli hostage. The hostage rescue job is taken by the intelligence and diplomats. The military is not even trying rather they are bombing everything on their way.
Targeting of the political leadership will for sure weaken the decision making capacity of Hamas, but the problem with this organization is the autonomy and decentralization of its structure. This is one of the reasons why the Israeli security system has difficulties hunting down HVTs in the recent years. This is because of the limited electronic footprint and the limited communication. There are only circulating rumors and they are mostly spread from mouth to mouth in the internal circles so in result obtaining intelligence is extremely hard without a serious HUMINT network (MOSSAD is supposed to have one of the best HUMINT networks in the Middle East next to the Syrian Muhabberat and the Turkish MIT). There is a serious gap that exists when it comes to HUMINT as the Israeli security services as many other services around the world put HUMINT back on the priority list and concentrated mostly on technical means of obtaining intelligence. Due to this situation the Israeli intelligence is one step back in the play of cat and mouse as most probably important messages are either relayed by a "pigeon" or trough a sophisticated wired communication network within the tunnels. These are the only two ways that I can think of minimizing electronic footprint when it comes to relaying messages and reliable enough tactical communication capability in a heavy EW environment in which Hamas most probably operates. It is also the best way of communication system when it comes to digging up in urban areas.
I honestly don't know what to expect for the end of this. There is no other way than two State solution. As much as there are concerns I don't think Israel will lose the West's support. This will either end with a two State solution or it will turn into a regional war which will include all available forces of the Axis of Resistance and a Western Coalition force.
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Ravager
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You mean ....another cheerleading squads .
And why would they join in the conflict that is not theirs ?? Not to mention they were the indirect benefeciaries ?? Thanks to Israelis shown of conduct examples . Nobody really cares with all the so called rule based order anymore ...
And we Indonesian are indirect benefeciaries too . screws with the WTO rulings and whatsnot ... It's a free real estate nowadays ...
This is too early to tell, but let's say it's true, I don't mind spending a few more for the groceries I buy.
Just the satisfaction of looking Eilat deprived of traffic and jobs already justify that.
I heard the price of gasoline are rising in Europe as well.
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I don't think India is pro Hamas country
Red Sea blockade will have an direct impact on India’s trade, says former ambassador
Red Sea crisis hits global trade; Former ambassador Anil Trigunayat sounds alarm for Indiawww.google.com
=====
In the event that the Red Sea is closed long-term, Europe and states on the Mediterranean will bear the brunt of the damage.
The Costs the Houthis Are Poised to Inflict on the Global Economy
If the Red Sea "blockade" by the Yemeni rebel group continues, the impact on consumers and on local states will be considerable.time.com
It's a hightime for a moslem country shipping companies who owns the ships to take a profit in this vacuum ....
I sincerely believes Indonesia , My and BD flag would get a free pass in the red sea ...
As long the fare rate are profittable enough i bet those houthis are eager for some more cuts too ...
There is so much more that hasn't been exposed as yet . Atleast in the triple number ...
Gary
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Boy, you forget the first part
by Gaza's "dissidents" and activists...that explains their negative opinion
Spitfire9
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